NIACE score for hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated by surgery or transarterial chemoembolization

AFP-DIAM Score to Predict Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before TACE: A French Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is recommended as a palliative treatment for patients of the B stage of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification.

AIMS

To identify clinical, biological, and radiological predictors of survival in patients undergoing TACE and develop a pre-therapeutic prognostic score.

METHODS

191 adult cirrhotic patients treated for HCC with TACE at the University Hospital (UH) of Clermont-Ferrand (France) from 2007-2017 were retrospectively included. We investigated the impact of baseline liver function, patient characteristics, and tumor burden on overall survival and developed a prognostic score.

RESULTS

Patients had a median age of 66 years and 126 patients were Child A. The AFP-DIAM score distinguishes two groups with a significant difference in survival time (median OS 28.3 months in patients with a score = 0 versus 17.7 months in patients with a score > 0). AFP-DIAM was validated on an external cohort, is well calibrated, and has the best discrimination capacity (C-index) as compared to NIACE, HAP, STATE, and SIX TO TWELVE. AFP-DIAM and SIX TO TWELVE are the more easy-to-use scores. When AFP-DIAM and the SIX TO TWELVE scores were tested in the same statistical model, results confirmed a better AFP-DIAM performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The AFP-DIAM is an easy-to-use score which allows to distinguish two groups with different prognosis before the first TACE session. Its use could provide further support to BCLC system to guide the therapeutic strategy of patients with HCC.

OHCCPredictor: an online risk stratification model for predicting survival duration of older patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although the elderly constitute more than a third of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, they have not been adequately represented in treatment and prognosis studies. Thus, there is not enough evidence to guide the treatment of such patients. The objective of this study is to identify the prognostic factors of older patients with HCC and to construct a new prognostic model for predicting their overall survival (OS).

METHODS

2,721 HCC patients aged ≥ 65 were extracted from the public database-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set with a ratio of 7:3. 101 patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2017 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine were identified as the external validation set. Univariate cox regression analyses and multivariate cox regression analyses were adopted to identify these independent prognostic factors. A predictive nomogram-based risk stratification model was proposed and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and a decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

These attributes including age, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were the independent prognostic factors for older patients with HCC while predicting survival duration. We found that the nomogram provided a good assessment of OS at 1, 3, and 5 years in older patients with HCC (1-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.823 (95%CI 0.803-0.845); internal validation set: AUC = 0.847 (95%CI 0.818-0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.732 (95%CI 0.521-0.943)); 3-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.813 (95%CI 0.790-0.837); internal validation set: AUC = 0.844 (95%CI 0.812-0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.780 (95%CI 0.674-0.887)); 5-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.839 (95%CI 0.806-0.872); internal validation set: AUC = 0.800 (95%CI 0.751-0.849); external validation set: AUC = 0.821 (95%CI 0.727-0.914)). The calibration curves showed that the nomogram was with strong calibration. The DCA indicated that the nomogram can be used as an effective tool in clinical practice. The risk stratification of all subgroups was statistically significant (p < 0.05). In the stratification analysis of surgery, larger resection (LR) achieved a better survival curve than local destruction (LD), but a worse one than segmental resection (SR) and liver transplantation (LT) (p < 0.0001). With the consideration of the friendship to clinicians, we further developed an online interface (OHCCPredictor) for such a predictive function ( https://juntaotan.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp_hcc/ ). With such an easily obtained online tool, clinicians will be provided helpful assistance in formulating personalized therapy to assess the prognosis of older patients with HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, AFP level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were independent prognostic factors for elderly patients with HCC. The constructed nomogram model based on the above factors could accurately predict the prognosis of such patients. Besides, the developed online web interface of the predictive model provide easily obtained access for clinicians.

Improving prognostication in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing loco-regional therapy using pre- and post-locoregional therapy scores

BACKGROUND

Many scoring systems have been proposed for predicting survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing locoregional therapy (LRT). We aimed to study the role of the NIACE score, hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score (HAP), and ABCR score in predicting transplant-free survival (TFS) in these patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective multicenter study of a United States Veteran cohort who underwent LRT, NIACE, HAP, and ABCR scores were calculated, and their predictive accuracy for TFS within different modified BCLC (mod-BCLC) stages was analyzed.

RESULTS

180 subjects underwent LRT between January-2012 and March-2019 were followed till January-2022, mean age 65.6 ± 6.3 years, model for end-stage liver disease -sodium (MELD-Na) score (at first LRT) 14.1 ± 6.7. A total of 43.9%, 35%, and 21.1% of patients had mod-BCLC A, B, and C stage disease, respectively. A total of 76.7% underwent transarterial embolization (TAE), 6.1% underwent ablation, and 17.2% underwent transarterial radioembolization (TARE) as the first intervention and were followed for a median of 576.5 patient-years. The NIACE score, HAP score, and ABCR scores differentiated patients within mod-BCLC stages A and B into groups with significant differences in TFS. In the stratified analysis of those undergoing only TAE, all three scores identified subgroups with significantly different TFS.

CONCLUSION

In patients with HCC undergoing LRT, the mod-BCLC stages have subgroups with variable overall TFS. The NIACE score, HAP score, and ABCR score identified differential prognoses is within mod-BCLC stages and characterized subgroups with different TFS following LRT (TAE). Integration of these scoring systems into treatment decisions would help to improve prognostication within respective mod-BCLC groups, which may help with more customized treatment allocation.

Development of a Model including MRI Features for Predicting Advanced-stage Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Liver Resection

Background Identifying patients at high risk for advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver resection may improve patient survival. Purpose To develop a model including MRI features for predicting postoperative advanced-stage HCC recurrence. Materials and Methods This single-center, retrospective study includes consecutive adult patients who underwent preoperative contrast-enhanced MRI and curative-intent resection for early- to intermediate-stage HCC (from December 2011 to April 2021). Three radiologists evaluated 52 qualitative features on MRI scans. In the training set, Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazard analysis was performed to identify clinical, laboratory, imaging, pathologic, and surgical variables to include in the predictive model. In the test set, the concordance index (C-index) was computed to compare the developed model with current staging systems. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. Results The study included 532 patients (median age, 54 years; IQR, 46-62 years; 465 male patients), 302 patients from the training set (median age, 54 years; IQR, 46-63 years; 265 male patients), and 128 patients from the test set (median age, 53 years; IQR, 46-63 years; 108 male patients). Advanced-stage recurrence was observed in 38 of 302 (12.6%) and 15 of 128 (11.7%) of patients from the training and test sets, respectively. Serum neutrophil count (109/L), tumor size (in centimeters), and arterial phase hyperenhancement proportion on MRI scans were associated with advanced-stage recurrence (subdistribution hazard ratio range, 1.16-3.83; 95% CI: 1.02, 7.52; P value range, <.001 to .02) and included in the predictive model. The model showed better test set prediction for advanced-stage recurrence than four staging systems (2-year C-indexes, 0.82 [95% CI: 0.74, 0.91] vs 0.63-0.68 [95% CI: 0.52, 0.82]; P value range, .001-.03). Patients at high risk for HCC recurrence (model score, ≥15 points) showed increased advanced-stage recurrence and worse all-stage recurrence-free survival (RFS), advanced-stage RFS, and overall survival than patients at low risk for HCC recurrence (P value range, <.001 to .02). Conclusion A model combining serum neutrophil count, tumor size, and arterial phase hyperenhancement proportion predicted advanced-stage HCC recurrence better than current staging systems and may identify patients at high risk. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license. Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Tsai and Mellnick in this issue.

Expected outcomes and patients’ selection before chemoembolization—“Six-and-Twelve or Pre-TACE-Predict” scores may help clinicians: Real-life French cohorts results

BACKGROUND

Careful selection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients prior to chemoembolization treatment is a daily reality, and is even more necessary with new available therapeutic options in HCC.

AIM

To propose two new models to better stratify patients and maximize clinical benefit: “6 and 12” and “pre/post-TACE-predict” (TACE, transarterial chemoembolization).

METHODS

We evaluated and compared their performance in predicting overall survival with other systems {Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and NIACE [Number of tumor(s), Infiltrative HCC, alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh (CP), and performance status]} in two HCC French cohorts of different stages enrolled between 2010 and 2018.

RESULTS

The cohorts included 324 patients classified as BCLC stages A/B (cohort 1) and 137 patients classified as BCLC stages B/C (cohort 2). The majority of the patients had cirrhosis with preserved liver function. “Pre-TACE-predict” and “6 and 12” models identified three distinct categories of patients exhibiting different prognosis in cohort 1. However, their prognostic value was no better than the BCLC system or NIACE score. Liver function based on CP and ALBI grades significantly impacted patient survival. Conversely, the “post-TACE-predict” model had a higher predictive value than other models. The stratification ability as well as predictive performance of these new models in an intermediate/advanced stage population was less efficient (cohort 2).

CONCLUSION

The newly proposed “Pre-TACE-predict” and “6 and 12” models offer an interesting stratification into three categories in a recommended TACE population, as they identify poor candidates, those with partial control and durable response. The models' contribution was reduced in a population with advanced stage HCCs.

“Six-and-twelve” score for outcome prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma following transarterial chemoembolization. In-depth analysis from a multicenter French cohort

The “six-and-twelve” (6&12) score is a new hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognostic index designed for recommended transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) candidates. Quick and easy to use by the sum of tumor size (cm) and number, this model identifies three groups with different survival time (the sum is ≤ 6; or > 6 but ≤ 12; or > 12); a survival benefit with TACE can be expected for HCC patients with a score not exceeding twelve. Recently, Wang ZW et al showed that the “6&12” model was the best system correlated with radiological response after the first TACE. Thus, we wanted to assess its survival prediction ability as well as its prognostic value and compared it to other systems (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) staging, Albumin-Bilirubin grade, tumor nodularity, infiltrative nature of the tumor, alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh class, and Performance Status score, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, Model to Estimate Survival for HCC scores, up-to-seven criteria) different from Wang ZW et al study in a multicenter French cohort of HCC including only recommended TACE candidates retrospectively enrolled. As previously demonstrated, we show that the "6&12” score can classify survival within this French cohort, with a prognostic value comparable to that of other systems, except HKLC staging. More importantly, the “6&12” score simplicity and ability in patients’ stratification outperform other systems for a routine clinical practice.

Prediction of Survival Among Patients Receiving Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Response-Based Approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The heterogeneity of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the widespread use of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) outside recommended guidelines have encouraged the development of scoring systems that predict patient survival. The aim of this study was to build and validate statistical models that offer individualized patient survival prediction using response to TACE as a variable.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Clinically relevant baseline parameters were collected for 4,621 patients with HCC treated with TACE at 19 centers in 11 countries. In some of the centers, radiological responses (as assessed by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [mRECIST]) were also accrued. The data set was divided into a training set, an internal validation set, and two external validation sets. A pre-TACE model ("Pre-TACE-Predict") and a post-TACE model ("Post-TACE-Predict") that included response were built. The performance of the models in predicting overall survival (OS) was compared with existing ones. The median OS was 19.9 months. The factors influencing survival were tumor number and size, alpha-fetoprotein, albumin, bilirubin, vascular invasion, cause, and response as assessed by mRECIST. The proposed models showed superior predictive accuracy compared with existing models (the hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score and its various modifications) and allowed for patient stratification into four distinct risk categories whose median OS ranged from 7 months to more than 4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A TACE-specific and extensively validated model based on routinely available clinical features and response after first TACE permitted patient-level prognostication.

NIACE score refines the overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma by Barcelona clinic liver cancer staging

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The NIACE score provides prognostic values for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in European studies. We aim to evaluate the prognostic value of the NIACE score in Asian patients.

METHODS

Patients with HCC were retrospectively enrolled from a tertiary medical center in Taiwan during 2009-2014, and their clinical information were collected. The NIACE score was calculated according to the Nodular numbers, tumor Infiltration, Alpha-fetoprotein level, Child-Pugh score, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score. The prognostic values of NIACE score for overall survival according to individual treatment and the Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) staging were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 468 patients were included with a median follow-up of 30 months. A greater NIACE score correlated with lower median survival and higher BCLC staging. Regardless of treatment modalities, NIACE scores (0, 1-1.5, 2.5-3, and 4-7) significantly predicted survival between groups (log-rank P < 0.001). Specifically, NIACE score (0, 1-1.5, 2.5-3, and 4-7) significantly predicted survival in patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (log-rank P < 0.001). NIACE score 1, 2.5, and 4 further distinguished overall survival in BCLC A, B, and C patients, respectively (all log-rank P < 0.01). After adjustment of the confounders and the BCLC staging, NIACE score of 2.5-3 and 4-7 (vs 0) had a significantly increased risk of mortality with a hazard ratio of 4.04 (95% confidence interval: 2.14-7.64, P < 0.001) and 7.45 (95% confidence interval: 3.22-17.23, P < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The NIACE score helps refine differential prognosis among BCLC A, B, and C subgroups of Asian patients with HCC, especially in those receiving transarterial chemoembolization.

Esophageal varices are not predictive of patient prognosis after surgical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The predictive value of esophageal varices (EV) in determining the patient outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unresolved. We aimed to assess the impact of EV on the prognosis of HCC patients after surgical resection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We consecutively enrolled 446 treatment-naive HCC patients who underwent surgical resection and esophagogastroduodenoscopy from 2003 to 2015. Prognostic factors were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model and a propensity score matching analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 89 (20.0%) HCC patients presented with EV. Compared with those without EV, patients with EV had poorer preservation of liver function and higher rates of cirrhosis in the nontumor part of liver specimens. After a median follow-up period of 34.6 months (25-75 percentiles; 12.8-59.3 months), 130 patients had died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 62.3 and 70.6% in patients with and without EV, respectively (P=0.102). A multivariate analysis showed that serum albumin level less than or equal to 4 g/dl (P=0.020), α-fetoprotein level greater than 20 ng/ml (P<0.001), as well as the presence of vascular invasion (P<0.001), but not the presence of EV, were independent risk factors associated with poor OS. Moreover, 67 patients were matched in each group using the one-to-one nearest-neighbor matching method. After matching, the OS rates were comparable between HCC patients with and without EV.

CONCLUSION

EV is not an independent risk factor predictive of poor prognosis for HCC patients after resection surgery if they have well-preserved liver function.