Development and validation of a prognostic model for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Development of novel prognostic models based on dynamic changes in risk factors for hepatitis B associated acute-on-chronic liver failure:a 10-year retrospective study

Background/Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with high short-term mortality, and early prediction is critical to reduce the deaths of ACLF patients. To date, however, the prognostic accuracy of current models for ACLF is unsatisfactory, particularly, in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. This study aims to develop novel prognostic models based on the dynamic changes in variables to predict the short-term mortality of HBV-associated ACLF (HBV-ACLF).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted, with the population comprised in whom ACLF was confirmed.319 patients were enrolled and their clinical data were collected on Days 1 and 7 following hospital admission. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for 28 and 90-day mortality. The dynamic alterations in the risk factors were further analyzed, and Days 1 and 7 prognostic models were constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to identify and compared the predictors of prognosis among our model.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed significant risk factors at Days 1 and 7, which when combined with the clinically important parameters, were used to establish the Days 1 and 7 prognostic models. For 28-day mortality, the predictive accuracy of the Day 1 prognostic model was significantly higher than that of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) model. For 90-day mortality, the predictive accuracy of the Days 1 and 7 prognostic models was significantly higher than that of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and ALBI prognostic models.

Conclusions

The prognostic models established in this study were superior to the existing prognostic scoring systems to accurately predict short-term mortality, and therefore, could be potential novel prognostic tools for HBV-ACLF.

Prognostic value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in end-stage liver disease: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is commonly utilized as a prognostic indicator in end-stage liver disease (ESLD), encompassing conditions like liver failure and decompensated cirrhosis. Nevertheless, some studies have contested the prognostic value of NLR in ESLD.

AIM

To investigate the ability of NLR to predict ESLD.

METHODS

Databases, such as Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Weipu, and Wanfang, were comprehensively searched to identify studies published before October 2022 assessing the prognostic ability of NLR to predict mortality in patients with ESLD. Effect sizes were calculated using comprehensive meta-analysis software and SATAT 15.1.

RESULTS

A total of thirty studies involving patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) were included in the evaluation. Among the pooled results of eight studies, it was observed that the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) was significantly higher in non-survivors compared to survivors (random-effects model: standardized mean difference = 1.02, 95% confidence interval = 0.67-1.37). Additionally, twenty-seven studies examined the associations between NLR and mortality in ESLD patients, reporting either hazard ratios (HR) or odds ratios (OR). The combined findings indicated a link between NLR and ESLD mortality (random-effects model; univariate HR = 1.07, 95%CI = 1.05-1.09; multivariate HR = 1.07, 95%CI = 1.07-1.09; univariate OR = 1.29, 95%CI = 1.18-1.39; multivariate OR = 1.29, 95%CI = 1.09-1.49). Furthermore, subgroup and meta-regression analyses revealed regional variations in the impact of NLR on ESLD mortality, with Asian studies demonstrating a more pronounced effect.

CONCLUSION

Increased NLR in patients with ESLD is associated with a higher risk of mortality, particularly in Asian patients. NLR is a useful prognostic biomarker in patients with ESLD.

Risk factors for the mortality of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has been confirmed as a prevalent form of end-stage liver disease in people subjected to chronic HBV infection. However, there has been rare in-depth research on the risk factors for the mortality of HBV-ACLF. This study aimed at determining the risk factors for the mortality of HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

The relevant research was selected from four electronic databases that have been published as of August 2023. The existing research was reviewed in accordance with the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The level of quality of previous research was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Moreover, a pooled estimate of the odds ratios (ORs) with their associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was provided through a meta-analysis. The data were combined, and the risk variables that at least two studies had considered were analyzed. The publication bias was examined through Egger's test and Begg's test.

RESULTS

Twenty two studies that conformed to the inclusion criteria were selected from 560 trials. Eight risk variables in terms of HBV-ACLF mortality were determined, which covered INR (OR = 1.923, 95% CI = 1.664-2.221, P < 0.001), Monocytes (OR = 1.201, 95% CI = 1.113-1.296, P < 0.001), Cirrhosis (OR = 1.432, 95% CI = 1.210-1.696, P < 0.001), HE (OR = 2.553, 95% CI = 1.968-3.312, P < 0.001), HE grade (OR = 2.059, 95% CI = 1.561-2.717, P < 0.001), SBP (OR = 1.383, 95% CI = 1.080-1.769, P = 0.010), Hyponatremia (OR = 1.941, 95% CI = 1.614-2.334, P < 0.001), as well as HRS (OR = 2.610, 95% CI = 1.669-4.080, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The most significant risk factors for HBV-ACLF mortality comprise HRS, HE, and HE grade, followed by INR and hyponatremia. The Monocytes, cirrhosis, and SBP have been confirmed as the additional key risk factors for HBV-ACLF mortality.

Acute on chronic liver failure: prognostic models and artificial intelligence applications

Critically ill patients presenting with acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) represent a particularly vulnerable population due to various considerations surrounding the syndrome definition, lack of robust prospective evaluation of outcomes, and allocation of resources such as organs for transplantation. Ninety-day mortality related to ACLF is high and patients who do leave the hospital are frequently readmitted. Artificial intelligence (AI), which encompasses various classical and modern machine learning techniques, natural language processing, and other methods of predictive, prognostic, probabilistic, and simulation modeling, has emerged as an effective tool in various areas of healthcare. These methods are now being leveraged to potentially minimize physician and provider cognitive load and impact both short-term and long-term patient outcomes. However, the enthusiasm is tempered by ethical considerations and a current lack of proven benefits. In addition to prognostic applications, AI models can likely help improve the understanding of various mechanisms of morbidity and mortality in ACLF. Their overall impact on patient-centered outcomes and countless other aspects of patient care remains unclear. In this review, we discuss various AI approaches being utilized in healthcare and discuss the recent and expected future impact of AI on patients with ACLF through prognostic modeling and AI-based approaches.

Network pharmacology-based prediction of active compounds in the Wenyang Jiedu Huayu formula acting on acute-on-chronic liver failure with experimental support in vitro and in vivo

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by undermined liver function, massive necrosis/apoptosis of hepatocytes, and hepatic inflammatory cell recruitment, leading to multiorgan failure. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has been widely applied in clinical and experimental studies of ACLF. In this study, 23 compounds with 6,386 drug targets were obtained from Wenyang Jiedu Huayu (WYJDHY), and 8,096 genes were identified as ACLF disease targets, among which 3,132 were overlapping co-targets. Expression profile analysis identified 105 DEGs among the co-targets, which were associated with biological activities such as lymphocyte activation, immune response regulation, and pathways such as Th17 cell differentiation and NF-κB signaling. After PPI analysis and network construction, atractylenolide I (AT-1) has been identified as the hub active ingredient of the WYJDHY formula. LPS stimulation inhibited rat hepatocytes’ BRL 3A cell viability, promoted cell apoptosis, increased the levels of ALT, AST, IL-6, and VCAM-1 within the culture medium, and activated NF-κB signaling, whereas AT-1 treatment significantly attenuated LPS-induced toxicity on BRL 3A cells. Furthermore, the NF-κB signaling inhibitor PDTC exerted effects on LPS-stimulated BRL 3A cells similar to those of AT-1, and the combination of PDTC and AT-1 further attenuated LPS-induced toxicity on BRL 3A cells. In vivo, AT-1 alone or with PDTC improved the symptoms and local inflammation in ACLF model rats. In conclusion, 23 active ingredients of six herbs in the WYJDHY formula were retrieved, and 105 co-targets were differentially expressed in ACLF. AT-1 exerts protective effects on LPS-stimulated hepatocytes and ACLF rats, possibly by inhibiting the NF-κB pathway.

Comparable outcomes of decompensated chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir: an 8-year cohort study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Whether the efficacies of entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in treating liver-related outcomes of decompensated chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients are comparable remained inconclusive.

METHODS

An 8-year cohort study of 736 decompensated CHB patients was conducted, and 65 TDF-treated patients were sex, age and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores-1:4 matched with 260 ETV-treated patients through propensity score-matching method.

RESULTS

Of 736 patients, 574 (78%) were male, with a mean age of 54.3 years, 438 (59.5%) had cirrhosis, 147 (20%) were positive for HBeAg, and 84 (11.6%) and 652 (88.4%) were treated with TDF and ETV, respectively. The 652 ETV-treated patients were older, had higher baseline MELD score and rates of encephalopathy, but lower ALT levels than the 84 TDF-treated patients. No significant differences were observed in the cumulative incidences of liver-related mortality or liver transplantation (1-month, 18.45 vs. 14.01%, p = 0.368; 8-year, 39.74 vs. 34.24%, p = 0.298), and hepatocellular carcinoma development (5-year, 7.21 vs.13.17%, p = 0.994; 8-year, 11.60 vs.13.17%, p = 0.857) between the matched 260 ETV- and 65 TDF-treated patients, regardless of time points. Baseline MELD score (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR): 1.063; 95% confidence interval (CI) of sHR: 1.016-1.112) and hepatic encephalopathy (sHR: 5.127; 95% CI sHR: 3.032-8.669) were independently associated with liver-related mortality or liver transplantation in the matched patients.

CONCLUSIONS

ETV and TDF had comparable efficacy in the short- and long-term liver-related outcomes of decompensated CHB patients, and baseline liver reserve was associated with the outcomes.

Utility of prognostic scores in predicting short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct syndrome associated with high short-term mortality. Early identification of patients at high risk is essential to determine emergency for transplantation and decide and prioritize the need for intensive care unit (ICU). We aimed to evaluate the performance of the different prognostic scores in the prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with ACLF. A total of 249 patients with ACLF were included and followed till discharge from the hospital. Univariate and Cox regression analyses were used to assess the performance of liver-specific (Child-Pugh and MELD) and ACLF prognostic scores (CLIF-C OF, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C AD, CLIF-C ACLF) in the prediction of in-hospital mortality.

Results

Patients were mostly males (71.1%) with a mean age of 53.9 ± 12.8 years. The etiology of pre-existing liver disease was HCV in 57.8%. Sepsis was the most common precipitating factor (49.8%) and the mortality rate was 74.3%. In univariate analysis, all scores were significantly higher in the deceased group (P<0.0001). AUROC were 0.897, 0.884, 0.870, 0.861, 0.861, and 0.850 for CLIF-C OF, CLIF-C AD, CLIF-C ACLF, Child-Pugh, CLIF-SOFA, and MELD scores, respectively. In multivariate analysis, 2 independent predictors of mortality were identified: CLIF-C ACLF score (OR 3.25, 95% CI 1.03–10.25, P<0.0001) and Child-Pugh class C (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.06, P=0.044).

Conclusions

All the studied scores could predict in-hospital mortality of patients with ACLF. However, CLIF-C ACLF and Child-Pugh class performed better as they could significantly and independently predict mortality.

The effect of hepatitis B virus on T lymphocyte and its subsets in chronic hepatitis B patients in different ALT stages: A new concept ALT in HBV infection

The aim of the present study was to explore the effect of hepatitis B virus on T lymphocyte and its subsets in different ALT states, and elucidate the immunological mechanism of ALT basing antiviral therapy for hepatitis B. 363 chronic hepatitis B patients were selected as the study subjects. According to ALT abnormalities, the patients were divided into three study groups. ALT normal group 131 cases, normal≦ ALT < 2 times of upper limit group 110 cases, ALT ≥ 2 times of upper limit group 122 cases. Entecavir was given to the ALT ≥ 2 times of upper limit group patients and followed up for 24 weeks. The hepatitis B antigen antibody parameters were measured by chemiluminescence immunoassay analyzer, the liver function parameters were measured by automatic biochemical analyzer, the hepatitis B virus load were measured by quantitative PCR analyzer, T lymphocytes were detected by flow cytometry, the level of IL-2, IFN-γ, IL-4 and IL-10 were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Detecting the influence of different hepatitis B viru loads in different groups on immunological indexes, and the virological and immunological indexes changes in before and after antiviral therapy patients. In the ALT normal group, different virus load hepatitis B virus had minor effect on T lymphocytes and their subsets (P > 0.05). In the ALT ≥ double upper limit of normal group. with the virus load increased, The total number of T lymphocytes, CD3+ CD4 + T lymphocytes decreased, (P < 0.05)CD3+ CD8 + T lymphocytes increased(P < 0.05). With the virus load increased the cytokines IL-2, IFN-γ which reflect the Th1 lymphocytes increased(P < 0.05), the cytokines IL-4、IL-10 which reflect the Th2 lymphocytes decreased(P < 0.05). Before and after 24 weeks of entecavir treatment, the patient's HBV-DNA decreased significantly(P < 0.05) and the body's immune function improved significantly. (P < 0.05)The influence of hepatitis B virus on immune function is different in different ALT states. Therefore, the scientific significance of ALT grouping in the hepatitis B treatment can be clarified from the immunological point.

Traditional Chinese medicine enema for acute chronic liver failure: A protocol of systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Acute chronic liver failure (ACLF) is the most common type of liver failure. The clinical symptoms are complex and changeable, the treatment is difficult and the fatality rate is high. It has become an urgent problem to actively seek effective treatment means and improve the clinical efficacy of ACLF patients. Studies have shown that decreased intestinal barrier function and bacterial endotoxin translocation in ACLF patients are considered to be the key causes of enterogenic endotoxemia, and traditional Chinese medicine enema has certain advantages in adjuvant treatment of this disease. However, due to the lack of evidence, there is no specific method or suggestion, so it is necessary to carry out systematic evaluation on Traditional Chinese medicine enema for ACLF and provide effective evidence for further research.

METHODS

We will search the following electronic databases from their inception to July 2020: Electronic database includes PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Chinese Biomedical Database WangFang, VIP medicine information, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Primary outcomes: survival rates, TCM syndrome score.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

liver function (alanine aminotransferase, aspartic acid amino transferase, total bilirubin), blood coagulation function (prothrombin activity), adverse events. Data will be extracted by 2 researchers independently, risk of bias of the meta-analysis will be evaluated based on the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. All data analysis will be conducted by data statistics software Review Manager V.5.3. and Stata V.12.0.

RESULTS

The results of this study will systematically evaluate the effectiveness and safety of Traditional Chinese medicine enema for ACLF.

CONCLUSION

The systematic review of this study will summarize the currently published evidence of Traditional Chinese medicine enema for ACLF to further guide its promotion and application.

Hepatitis Flares Are Associated With Better Outcomes Than No Flare in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis and Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about the effects of baseline hepatitis flares (level of alanine aminotransferase ≥5-fold above the upper limit of normal) on the outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection with decompensated cirrhosis treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues. We aimed to investigate these effects.

METHODS

We performed a cohort study of 511 consecutive patients (78.1% men; 58.7% with flares at baseline) with chronic HBV infection and decompensated cirrhosis who were treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues as soon as decompensation was noted. Patients were enrolled from January 2002 to March 2018 at a tertiary care center in Taiwan and followed up for 16 years.

RESULTS

Patients with hepatitis flares had higher mean baseline levels of HBV DNA (6.44 ± 1.52 vs 6.08 ± 1.46 log₁₀ IU/mL; P = .003), hepatitis B surface antigen, and total bilirubin; prolonged prothrombin time; higher platelet counts (108.0 ± 42.9 vs 83.6 ± 44.7 103/μL; P < .001); and a higher proportion were infected with HBV genotype B, compared with patients without flares. Patients with flares had lower ratios of neutrophils to lymphocytes than patients with flares (6.14 ± 9.18 vs 9.12 ± 1.36; P = .019); were less likely than patients without flares to be positive for hepatitis B e antigen, ascites, esophageal varices, or splenomegaly; and a lower proportion died or underwent liver transplantation (46.5% vs 73.2% of patients without flares; P < .001), even though the patients without flares had similar short-term (<3 mo) outcomes. Factors associated independently with baseline flares were esophageal varices (odds ratio [OR], 0.165; 95% CI, 0.067-0.406), ascites (OR, 0.415; 95% CI, 0.178-0.969), levels of total bilirubin (OR, 1.158; 95% CI, 1.041-1.269), prolonged prothrombin time (OR, 1.095; 95% CI, 1.033-1.168), and higher platelet counts (OR, 1.009; 95% CI, 1.00-1.018). After we used propensity score matching to match patients with and without baseline flares, factors associated with the cumulative incidence of death or liver transplantation were flares (hazard ratio [HR], 0.491; 95% CI, 0.317-0.76), ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes (HR, 1.278; 95% CI, 1.027-1.591), and prolonged prothrombin time (HR, 1.223; 95% CI, 1.052-1.423).

CONCLUSIONS

In a 16-year study of patients with chronic HBV infection and decompensated cirrhosis treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues, a baseline flare of hepatitis was associated independently with better long-term (≥3 mo) outcomes than no flare.

Clinical prediction for outcomes of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure associated with HBV infection: A new model establishment

Objective

The acute-on-chronic liver failure associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV-ACLF) was a type of clinical syndrome with rapid deterioration of liver function. It was characterized by short-term elevated bilirubin, ascites, prolonged clotting time, hepatic encephalopathy, organ failures, and high short-term mortality. It was important to predict and evaluate the disease early. This study intended to comprehensively analyze the prognostic factors of patients with ACLF associated with HBV DNA infection through clinical manifestations and laboratory tests, and to establish a corresponding prediction and evaluation model for further clinical guidance.

Methods

A total of 220 patients were first diagnosed with HBV-ACLF and admitted to and treated at the Department of Infectious Diseases of the First Affiliated Changhai Hospital of the Second Military Medical University from 2009 to 2018. These patients' records were collected and divided into two groups: (1) 120 patients who were improved and discharged were classified as good prognosis group and (2) 100 patients who died or underwent liver transplantation were classified as poor prognosis group. By analyzing baseline characteristics and clinical indicators of the two groups, the main potential factors affecting prognosis were identified and the corresponding prognostic evaluation model was established. This model's advantages and disadvantages were compared with classic prognostic scoring systems.

Results

The proportion of ascites and the proportion of hepatic encephalopathy of poor prognosis group were significantly higher than those of good prognosis group. The total bilirubin, creatinine, white blood cell count, and NEU (%) levels of poor prognosis group were significantly higher than those of good prognosis group, and the international normalized ratio, albumin (ALB), alanine aminotransferase, Na, Cl, RBC, and PLT levels of poor prognosis group were significantly lower than those of good prognosis group. A new prediction model LR(p) = 1/(1 + e ^-Z ) was established, where z = 10.0127 + 0.3687 × NEUT (%) - 0.0082 × PLT + 1.8157 × hepatic encephalopathy. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.89, specificity was 80.83%, and sensitivity was 81%. The newly established prognostic model was compared with other three scoring systems including model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, and ALBI scores. The results showed that the specificity, sensitivity, and area under the ROC curve of the newly established model were significantly higher than the other three scoring systems.

Conclusion

Hepatic encephalopathy, NEU (%), and PLT levels were independent risk factors for predicting the prognosis of HBV-ACLF. The new prediction model LR(p) had better prediction accuracy than the other three scoring models of MELD, MELD-Na, and ALBI and could more accurately assess the prognosis of HBV-ACLF, but in the later stage, it was still necessary to expand the sample size for verification.

Artificial neural network-based models used for predicting 28- and 90-day mortality of patients with hepatitis B-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background

This study aimed to develop prognostic models for predicting 28- and 90-day mortality rates of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) through artificial neural network (ANN) systems.

Methods

Six hundred and eight-four cases of consecutive HBV-ACLF patients were retrospectively reviewed. Four hundred and twenty-three cases were used for training and constructing ANN models, and the remaining 261 cases were for validating the established models. Predictors associated with mortality were determined by univariate analysis and were then included in ANN models for predicting prognosis of mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the ANN models in comparison with various current prognostic models.

Results

Variables with statistically significant difference or important clinical characteristics were input in the ANN training process, and eight independent risk factors, including age, hepatic encephalopathy, serum sodium, prothrombin activity, γ-glutamyltransferase, hepatitis B e antigen, alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin, were eventually used to establish ANN models. For 28-day mortality in the training cohort, the model’s predictive accuracy (AUR 0.948, 95% CI 0.925–0.970) was significantly higher than that of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), Chronic Liver Failure-ACLF (CLIF-ACLF), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) (all p < 0.001). In the validation cohorts the predictive accuracy of ANN model (AUR 0.748, 95% CI: 0.673–0.822) was significantly higher than that of MELD (p = 0.0099) and insignificantly higher than that of MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-ACLF (p > 0.05). For 90-day mortality in the training cohort, the model’s predictive accuracy (AUR 0.913, 95% CI 0.887–0.938) was significantly higher than that of MELD, MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-ACLF (all p < 0.001). In the validation cohorts, the prediction accuracy of the ANN model (AUR 0.754, 95% CI: 0.697–0.812 was significantly higher than that of MELD (p = 0.019) and insignificantly higher than MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-ACLF (p > 0.05).

Conclusions

The established ANN models can more accurately predict short-term mortality risk in patients with HBV- ACLF.

The main content has been postered as an abstract at the AASLD Hepatology Conference (10.1002/hep.30257).

Artificial liver support system therapy in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: Classification and regression tree analysis

Artificial liver support systems (ALSS) are widely used to treat patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). The aims of the present study were to investigate the subgroups of patients with HBV-ACLF who may benefit from ALSS therapy, and the relevant patient-specific factors. 489 ALSS-treated HBV-ACLF patients were enrolled, and served as derivation and validation cohorts for classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. CART analysis identified three factors prognostic of survival: hepatic encephalopathy (HE), prothrombin time (PT), and total bilirubin (TBil) level; and two distinct risk groups: low (28-day mortality 10.2-39.5%) and high risk (63.8-91.1%). The CART model showed that patients lacking HE and with a PT ≤ 27.8 s and a TBil level ≤455 μmol/L experienced less 28-day mortality after ALSS therapy. For HBV-ACLF patients with HE and a PT > 27.8 s, mortality remained high after such therapy. Patients lacking HE with a PT ≤ 27.8 s and TBil level ≤ 455 μmol/L may benefit markedly from ALSS therapy. For HBV-ACLF patients at high risk, unnecessary ALSS therapy should be avoided. The CART model is a novel user-friendly tool for screening HBV-ACLF patient eligibility for ALSS therapy, and will aid clinicians via ACLF risk stratification and therapeutic guidance.

Management of acute-on-chronic liver failure: an algorithmic approach

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct syndrome of liver failure in a patient with chronic liver disease presenting with jaundice, coagulopathy and ascites and/or hepatic encephalopathy, developing following an acute hepatic insult and associated with high 28-day mortality. The definition though lacks global consensus, excludes patients with known distinct entities such as acute liver failure and those with end-stage liver disease. The initial Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) because of cytokine storm in relation to acute insult and/or subsequent development of sepsis due to immunoparalysis leads to extrahepatic organ failure. These cascades of events progress through a 'Golden Window' period of about 7 days, subsequent to which majority of the patients develop complications, such as sepsis and extrahepatic organ failure. Prevention of sepsis, support of organs and management of organ failure (commonly hepatic, renal, cerebral, coagulation) and early referral for transplant is crucial. The APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) liver failure score is a dynamic prognostic model for management decisions and is superior to existing models. Aggressive multidisciplinary approach can lead to a transplant-free survival in nearly half of the cases. The present review provides an algorithmic approach to management of organ failure, sepsis prevention, use of dynamic prognostic models for management decision and is aimed to improve the skills for managing and improving the outcomes of such critically ill patients.

[Long-term prognosis and quality of life of survivors with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure]

OBJECTIVE

To explore the long-term prognosis and health-related quality of life of patients surviving hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).

METHODS

The clinical data were collected from patients with HBV-ACLF, who were hospitalized in our department between November, 2011 and October, 2016 and survived for more than 90 days. The patients were followed for occurrence of newly diagnosed cirrhosis, decompensation events, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. The quality of life of the patients was evaluated using SF-36 score, and the patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and cirrhosis treated during the same period served as controls.

RESULTS

A total of 223 ACLF survivors were included in this study. According to the presence of cirrhosis on admission, the enrolled patients were divided into chronic hepatitis B-related ACLF (CHB-ACLF) group (n=130) and liver cirrhosis ACLF (CIR-ACLF) group (n=93). The 12-, 24- and 50-month survival rates in CHB-ACLF group were 97%, 95.7% and 93.9%, respectively, significantly higher than the rates in CIR-ACLF group (91%, 86% and 74%, respectively; P=0.007). In patients with CHB-ACLF, the 12-, 24- and 36-month progression rates of cirrhosis were 37.9%, 58.4% and 68.7% respectively. Multivariate Cox regression identified the peak value of serum creatinine (HR=1.015, P=0.026) and INR (HR=2.032, P=0.006) within 28 days as independent risk factors and serum sodium at baseline (HR=0.84, P=0.035) as an independent protective factor of occurrence of cirrhosis. The score of mental health on SF-36 in ACLF group was significantly lower than the national norms, and the scores for general health and body pain of ACLF patients were significantly higher than those in patients with CHB or cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The long-term prognosis of ACLF survivors with and without cirrhosis can be different. Acute attacks are associated with an increased rate of cirrhosis progression in CHB patients who recovered from ACLF, possibly in relation with the severity of extra-hepatic organ injuries. The physical and social functions of long-term survivors of ACLF do not significantly decline, but their psychological status can be affected.

慢加急性肝衰竭: 东西方诊断和预后的差异

慢加急性肝衰竭(acute-on-chronic liver failure, ACLF)是以慢性肝病基础上发生的急性肝功能失代偿和短期高死亡率为主要临床特征的一种可逆的、复杂的临床综合征. 由于不同区域ACLF的病因不同, 且病理机制复杂, 导致东西方对ACLF的定义及诊断标准仍存在争议, 且缺乏公认的预后评估体系. 近年来, ACLF引起了国内外学者的广泛关注, 取得了一些重要的研究进展, 本文将围绕国际上ACLF的最新进展, 对ACLF的定义及预后评估等进行分析总结.