A novel scoring model for predicting mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome

Elevated D-Dimer levels correlate with the development of hepatorenal syndrome and a poor outcome in patients with cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Whether hemostatic status was correlated with the diverse types of acute kidney injury in cirrhotic patients is unclear. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship between hemostatic markers and the diverse types of acute kidney injury (AKI) in liver cirrhosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Cirrhotic patients with consecutive treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Medicine School, Zhejiang University, were pooled in a cohort. Their demographic and clinical data, biochemistry parameters and hemostatic markers were assessed to identify risk factors for the development and prognosis of AKI.

RESULTS

A total of 773 cirrhotic patients were included in this cohort. Patients with hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) had significantly higher D-Dimer than those with the other types of AKI. In univariate COX regression, APTT, TT, INR, D-Dimer and Fib were correlated with the development of AKI, HRS and acute tubular necrosis (ATN), however, only D-Dimer remained independently associated with the development of AKI and HRS in multivariate COX regression. The area under the ROC curve of D-Dimer was 0.755 (95%CI, 0.718-0.793) in predicting the development of AKI, 0.879 (95%CI, 0.791-0.967) in predicting the development of HRS, respectively. D-Dimer was used for diagnosis of HRS with a sensitivity of 87.3% and specificity of 72.9% at the cutoff of 3.7 (mg/L FEU). Survival rates differed significantly between groups by D-Dimer level.

CONCLUSIONS

Hemostatic markers were significantly associated with the diverse types of AKI. D-Dimer was an independent risk factor for HRS and correlated with a poor outcome in cirrhotic patients.

Prognostic Nomograms for Hospital Survival and Transplant-Free Survival of Patients with Hepatorenal Syndrome: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis with a poor prognosis. To develop novel and effective nomograms which could numerically predict both the hospital survival and transplant-free survival of HRS, we retrospectively enrolled a cohort of 149 patients. A backward stepwise method based on the smallest Akaike information criterion value was applied to select the covariates to be included in the Cox proportional hazards models. The Harrell C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and Kaplan–Meier curves with the log-rank test were used to assess nomograms. The bootstrapping method with 1000 resamples was performed for internal validation. The nomogram predicting hospital survival included prothrombin activity, HRS clinical pattern, Child–Pugh class, and baseline serum creatinine. The C-index was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.65–0.78), and the adjusted C-index was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66–0.79). The nomogram predicting transplant-free survival included sex, prothrombin activity, HRS clinical pattern, model for end-stage liver disease–Na score, and peak serum creatinine. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69–0.79), and the adjusted C-index was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68–0.79). The AUC and Brier score at 15, 30, and 45 days calculated from the hospital survival nomogram and those at 6, 12, and 18 months calculated from the transplant-free survival nomogram revealed good predictive ability. The two models can be used to identify patients at high risk of HRS and promote early intervention treatment.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for patients with hepatorenal syndrome: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a severe complication of cirrhosis with high mortality, which necessitates accurate clinical decision. However, studies on prognostic factors and scoring systems to predict overall survival of HRS are not enough. Meanwhile, a multicenter cohort study with a long span of time could be more convincing.

AIM

To develop a novel and effective prognostic model for patients with HRS and clarify new prognostic factors.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 1667 patients from four hospitals, and 371 eligible patients were finally analyzed to develop and validate a novel prognostic model for patients with HRS. Characteristics were compared between survivors and non-survivors, and potential prognostic factors were selected according to the impact on 28-d mortality. Accuracy in predicting 28-d mortality was compared between the novel and other scoring systems, including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA), and Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (COSSH-ACLF).

RESULTS

Five prognostic factors, comprised of gender, international normalized ratio, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, neutrophil percentage, and stage, were integrated into a new score, GIMNS; stage is a binary variable defined by the number of failed organs. GIMNS was positively correlated with MELD, CLIF-SOFA, and COSSH-ACLF. Additionally, it had better accuracy [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC): 0.830] than MELD (AUROC: 0.759), CLIF-SOFA (AUROC: 0.767), and COSSH-ACLF (AUROC: 0.759) in the derivation cohort (P < 0.05). It performed better than MELD and CLIF-SOFA in the validation cohort (P < 0.050) and had a higher AUROC than COSSH-ACLF (P = 0.122).

CONCLUSION

We have developed a new scoring system, GIMNS, to predict 28-d mortality of HRS patients. Mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and stage were first proposed and found to be related to the mortality of HRS. Additionally, the GIMNS score showed better accuracy than MELD and CLIF-SOFA, and the AUROC was higher than that of COSSH-ACLF.

Evaluation of the criteria of hepatorenal syndrome type of acute kidney injury in patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU

INTRODUCTION

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and devastating complication in patients with cirrhosis. In 2015, the International Club of Ascites (ICA) proposed the definition of hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) type of AKI (HRS-AKI) in patients with cirrhosis. This study aims to evaluate the criteria of HRS-AKI in patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU with regard to the prognosis.

METHODS

A total of 349 cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) from 2010 to 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Demographic parameters and clinical variables were collected with case report forms. The occurrence of AKI was determined according to ICA-AKI criteria. The phenotypes of AKI comprised pre-renal azotemia (PRA), acute tubular necrosis (ATN) and HRS. In our study, patients with PRA or ATN were classified to the non-HRS-AKI group.

RESULTS

The incidence of AKI was 73.0%, comprising PRA (18.6%), ATN (16.3%) and HRS (38.1%). The overall hospital mortality was 64.5%. Patients with AKI had a significantly higher in-hospital (76.1%) and 180-d (86.7%) mortality. AKI type was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality by a multivariate logistic regression. The in-hospital and 180-d mortality rates were of no significant difference among patients with HRS-AKI stages 1-3.

CONCLUSIONS

AKI is common in patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU, associated with significant in-hospital mortality. HRS-AKI was the most common and severe type of AKI in patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU. The current staging system may not be applicable for HRS-AKI in patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU.