Model for end-stage liver disease score and hemodynamic instability as a predictor of poor outcome in early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt treatment for acute variceal hemorrhage

Shunt dysfunction and mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with portal hypertension

OBJECTIVES

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a catheter-based, minimally invasive procedure to reduce portal hypertension. The aim of the study was to investigate dysfunction and mortality after TIPS and to identify factors associated with these events.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 834 patients undergoing TIPS implantation in a single center from 1993-2018 was performed. Cumulative incidence curves were estimated, and frailty models were used to assess associations between potentially influential variables and time to dysfunction or death.

RESULTS

1-, 2-, and 5-year mortality rates were 20.9% (confidence interval (CI) 17.7-24.1), 22.5% (CI 19.1-25.8), and 25.0% (CI: 21.1-28.8), 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year dysfunction rates were 28.4% (CI 24.6-32.3), 38.9% (CI 34.5-43.3), and 52.4% (CI 47.2-57.6). The use of covered stents is a protective factor regarding TIPS dysfunction (hazard ratio (HR) 0.47, CI 0.33-0.68) but does not play a major role in survival (HR 0.95, CI 0.58-1.56). Risk factors for mortality are rather TIPS in an emergency setting (HR 2.78, CI 1.19-6.50), a previous TIPS dysfunction (HR 2.43, CI 1.28-4.62), and an increased Freiburg score (HR 1.45, CI 0.93-2.28).

CONCLUSION

The use of covered stents is an important protective factor regarding TIPS dysfunction. Whereas previous TIPS dysfunction, emergency TIPS implantation, and an elevated Freiburg score are associated with increased mortality. Awareness of risk factors could contribute to a better selection of patients who may benefit from a TIPS procedure and improve clinical follow-up with regard to early detection of thrombosis/stenosis.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

The use of covered stents reduces the risk of dysfunction after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). TIPS dysfunction, emergency TIPS placement, and a high Freiburg score are linked to higher mortality rates in TIPS patients.

KEY POINTS

The risk of dysfunction is higher for uncovered stents compared to covered stents. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt dysfunction increases the risk of instantaneous death after the intervention. A higher Freiburg score increases the rate of death after the intervention. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt implantations in emergency settings reduce survival rates.

One in four patients with gastrointestinal bleeding develops shock or hemodynamic instability: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hemodynamic instability and shock are associated with untoward outcomes in gastrointestinal bleeding. However, there are no studies in the existing literature on the proportion of patients who developed these outcomes after gastrointestinal bleeding.

AIM

To determine the pooled event rates in the available literature and specify them based on the bleeding source.

METHODS

The protocol was registered on PROSPERO in advance (CRD42021283258). A systematic search was performed in three databases (PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL) on 14th October 2021. Pooled proportions with 95%CI were calculated with a random-effects model. A subgroup analysis was carried out based on the time of assessment (on admission or during hospital stay). Heterogeneity was assessed by Higgins and Thompson's I2 statistics. The Joanna Briggs Institute Prevalence Critical Appraisal Tool was used for the risk of bias assessment. The Reference Citation Analysis (https://www.referencecitationanalysis.com/) tool was applied to obtain the latest highlight articles.

RESULTS

We identified 11589 records, of which 220 studies were eligible for data extraction. The overall proportion of shock and hemodynamic instability in general gastrointestinal bleeding patients was 0.25 (95%CI: 0.17-0.36, I2 = 100%). In non-variceal bleeding, the proportion was 0.22 (95%CI: 0.14-0.31, I2 = 100%), whereas it was 0.25 (95%CI: 0.19-0.32, I2 = 100%) in variceal bleeding. The proportion of patients with colonic diverticular bleeding who developed shock or hemodynamic instability was 0.12 (95%CI: 0.06-0.22, I2 = 90%). The risk of bias was low, and heterogeneity was high in all analyses.

CONCLUSION

One in five, one in four, and one in eight patients develops shock or hemodynamic instability on admission or during hospitalization in the case of non-variceal, variceal, and colonic diverticular bleeding, respectively.

Novel CABIN score outperforms other prognostic models in predicting in-hospital mortality after salvage transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting

BACKGROUND

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is now established as the salvage procedure of choice in patients who have uncontrolled or severe recurrent variceal bleeding despite optimal medical and endoscopic treatment.

AIM

To analysis compared the performance of eight risk scores to predict in-hospital mortality after salvage TIPS (sTIPS) placement in patients with uncontrolled variceal bleeding after failed medical treatment and endoscopic intervention.

METHODS

Baseline risk scores for the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Bonn TIPS early mortality (BOTEM), Child-Pugh, Emory, FIPS, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, and a novel 5 category CABIN score incorporating Creatinine, Albumin, Bilirubin, INR and Na, were calculated before sTIPS. Concordance (C) statistics for predictive accuracy of in-hospital mortality of the eight scores were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis.

RESULTS

Thirty-four patients (29 men, 5 women), median age 52 years (range 31-80) received sTIPS for uncontrolled (11) or refractory (23) bleeding between August 1991 and November 2020. Salvage TIPS controlled bleeding in 32 (94%) patients with recurrence in one. Ten (29%) patients died in hospital. All scoring systems had a significant association with in-hospital mortality (P < 0.05) on multivariate analysis. Based on in-hospital survival AUROC, the CABIN (0.967), APACHE II (0.948) and Emory (0.942) scores had the best capability predicting mortality compared to FIPS (0.892), BOTEM (0.877), MELD Na (0.865), Child-Pugh (0.802) and MELD (0.792).

CONCLUSION

The novel CABIN score had the best prediction capability with statistical superiority over seven other risk scores. Despite sTIPS, hospital mortality remains high and can be predicted by CABIN category B or C or CABIN scores > 10. Survival was 100% in CABIN A patients while mortality was 75% for CABIN B, 87.5% for CABIN C, and 83% for CABIN scores > 10.

Decision making for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt in refractory ascites and variceal bleeding: MELD, or not MELD, that is the question

PURPOSE

The model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has been shown to predict 3-month prognosis following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt (TIPS) in liver cirrhosis; however, that score was derived from a mixed cohort, including patients with refractory ascites and variceal bleeding. This study re-evaluates the role of the MELD score and focuses on differences between both groups of patients.

METHODS

A total of 301 patients (192 male and 109 female) received TIPS, 213 because of refractory ascites and 88 because of variceal bleeding. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify predictors of mortality and area under the receiver operator characteristics (AUROC) were used to assess the prognostic capacity of the MELD score and of the results of predictors of the multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

In refractory ascites, age, bilirubin and albumin were independent predictors of mortality. In variceal bleeding, emergency TIPS during ongoing bleeding, concomitant grade III ascites, history of hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, bilirubin and platelet count proved significant. AUROCs of the MELD score for 3-month survival yielded 0.543 and 0.836 for refractory ascites and variceal bleeding, respectively (P < 0.001). For 1-year survival, the respective AUROCs yielded 0.533 and 0.767 (P < 0.001). In contrast to MELD, the AUROCs based on the calculated risk scores of this study resulted in 0.660 and 0.876 for 3-month survival, and 0.665 and 0.835 for 1-year survival in patients with ascites and variceal bleeding, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In refractory ascites, the prognostic capability of MELD is significantly inferior compared to variceal bleeding. The results of our multivariate analyses and AUROC calculations corroborate the impact of different prognostic variables in patients undergoing TIPS for ascites and variceal bleeding.

A New Scoring System for Predicting In-hospital Death in Patients Having Liver Cirrhosis With Esophageal Varices

Introduction: Liver cirrhosis is caused by the development of various acute and chronic liver diseases. Esophageal varices is a common and serious complication of liver cirrhosis during decompensation. Despite the development of various treatments, the prognosis for liver cirrhosis with esophageal varices (LCEV) remains poor. We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital death in LCEV patients.

Methods: Data on LCEV patients were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and IV (MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV) database. The patients from MIMIC-III were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Training cohort was used for establishing the model, validation and MIMIC-IV cohorts were used for validation. The independent prognostic factors for LCEV patients were determined using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method and forward stepwise logistic regression. We then constructed a nomogram to predict the in-hospital death of LCEV patients. Multiple indicators were used to validate the nomogram, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Nine independent prognostic factors were identified by using LASSO and stepwise regressions: age, Elixhauser score, anion gap, sodium, albumin, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, vasopressor use, and bleeding. The nomogram was then constructed and validated. The AUC value of the nomogram was 0.867 (95% CI = 0.832–0.904) in the training cohort, 0.846 (95% CI = 0.790–0.896) in the validation cohort and 0.840 (95% CI = 0.807–0.872) in the MIMIC-IV cohort. High AUC values indicated the good discriminative ability of the nomogram, while the calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test results demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated. Improvements in NRI and IDI values suggested that our nomogram was superior to MELD-Na, CAGIB, and OASIS scoring system. DCA curves indicated that the nomogram had good value in clinical applications.

Conclusion: We have established the first prognostic nomogram for predicting the in-hospital death of LCEV patients. The nomogram is easy to use, performs well, and can be used to guide clinical practice, but further external prospective validation is still required.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Radiologic Management of Portal Hypertension

Cirrhosis is a heterogeneous disease that cannot be studied as a single entity and is classified in two main prognostic stages: compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Portal hypertension, characterized by a pathological increase of the portal pressure and by the formation of portal-systemic collaterals that bypass the liver, is the initial and main consequence of cirrhosis and is responsible for the majority of its complications. A myriad of treatment options exists for appropriately managing the most common complications of portal hypertension, including acute variceal bleeding and refractory ascites. The American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision include an extensive analysis of current medical literature from peer reviewed journals and the application of well-established methodologies (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE) to rate the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances where evidence is lacking or equivocal, expert opinion may supplement the available evidence to recommend imaging or treatment.

The role of pre-emptive Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt in acute variceal bleeding: a literature review

The development of portal hypertension has serious implications in the natural history of liver cirrhosis, leading to complications such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy and variceal bleeding. The management of acute variceal bleeding has improved in the last two decades, but despite the advances in endoscopic methods the overall prognosis remains poor, particularly within a subgroup of patients with more advanced disease. The role of Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt (TIPSS) is a well-established method of achieving haemostasis by immediate portal decompression; however, its use in an emergency setting as a rescue strategy is still associated with high mortality. It has been shown that ‘early’ use of TIPSS as a pre-emptive strategy in a patient with acute variceal bleed in addition to the standard of care confers superior survival outcomes in a subgroup of patients at high risk of treatment failure and death. The purpose of this review is to appraise the literature around the indications, patient selection, utility, complications and economic considerations of pre-emptive TIPSS.