Integrated model for end-stage liver disease maybe superior to some other model for end-stage liver disease-based systems in addition to Child-Turcotte-Pugh and albumin-bilirubin scores in patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

The prognostic evaluation of ALBI score in endoscopic treatment of esophagogastric varices hemorrhage in liver cirrhosis

To analyze the independent risk factors for recurrent bleeding and death within 1 year after endoscopic treatment of esophagogastric varices hemorrhage (EGVB) in patients with liver cirrhosis, and to validate the predictive value of ALBI score for recurrent bleeding and death within 1 year after endoscopic treatment of EGVB in patients with liver cirrhosis. A total of 338 patients with EGVB who received endoscopic treatment for the first time in the Department of Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from January 1, 2016 to March 1, 2020 were selected. A database was established to analyze the patients' demographic data, surgical variables and postoperative outcomes. All patients were contacted and followed up to verify the predictive value of ALBI score for recurrent bleeding and mortality. 130 patients had rebleeding within 1 year after surgery (38.5%). 66 patients died within 1 year after surgery (19.5%). Patients with ALBI grade 3 had significantly higher rebleeding and mortality rates than those with grades 1 and 2. The AUC was used to compare the predictive value of the four scores for rebleeding and mortality within one year after endoscopic surgery. Both ALBI scores had the largest AUC. The ALBI score has certain predictive value for rebleeding and mortality within 1 year after endoscopic therapy in patients with cirrhotic EGVB.

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites, leading to high mortality rates if not promptly treated. However, specific prediction models for SBP are lacking.

AIMS

This study aimed to compare commonly used cirrhotic prediction models (CTP score, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MELD 3.0) for short-term mortality prediction and develop a novel model to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients with the first episode of SBP were included. Prognostic values for mortality were assessed using AUROC analysis. A novel prediction model was developed and validated.

RESULTS

In total, 327 SBP patients were analyzed, with HBV infection as the main etiologies. MELD 3.0 demonstrated the highest AUROC among the traditional models. The novel model, incorporating HRS, exhibited superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital in all patients and 3-month mortality in HBV-cirrhosis, with AUROC values of 0.827 and 0.813 respectively, surpassing 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD 3.0 score outperformed the CTP score and showed a non-significant improvement compared to other MELD-based scores, while the novel SBP model demonstrated impressive accuracy. Internal validation and an HBV-related cirrhosis subgroup sensitivity analysis supported these findings, highlighting the need for a specific prognostic model for SBP and the importance of preventing HRS development to improve SBP prognosis.

Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Decompensated Cirrhotic Patients: A Comprehensive Overview

Primary liver cancer is the sixth most common cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for 75% of primary liver cancer cases, mostly on the basis of cirrhosis. However, the data and therapeutic options for the treatment of HCC in patients with decompensated cirrhosis are rather limited. This patient category is often considered to be in a terminal stage without the possibility of a specific treatment except liver transplantation, which is restricted by several criteria and liver donor shortages. Systemic treatments may provide a solution for patients with Child Pugh class B or C since they are less invasive. Although most of the existing trials have excluded patients with decompensated cirrhosis, there are increasing data from real-life settings that show acceptable tolerability and satisfying efficacy in terms of response. The data on the administration of locoregional treatments in such patients are also limited, but the overall survival seems to be potentially prolonged when patients are carefully selected, and close adverse event monitoring is applied. The aim of this review is to analyze the existing data regarding the administration of treatments in decompensated patients with HCC, evaluate the effect of therapy on overall survival and highlight the potential risks in terms of tolerability.

Bacteremia (Sepsis), Hepatorenal Syndrome, and Serum Creatinine Levels Rather than Types or Microbial Patterns Predicted the Short-Term Survival of Cirrhotic Patients Complicated with Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis

(1) Background: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a major and severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites. Over the years, advance in antibiotic treatment has led to changes in microbial patterns in some regions, including the emergence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases resistant (ESBL)-producing bacteria and an increase in Gram-positive bacteria (GPC). In addition, three SBP types (classic SBP, culture-negative neutrophilic ascites (CNNA), and monomicrobial non-neutrocytic bacterascites (MNB)), may also have different prognoses. Therefore, the study aimed to investigate the microbial pattern and the predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with SBP. (2) Methods: Patients discharged with a diagnosis of the first episode of SBP between January 2006 and July 2017 were enrolled. Patients' clinical, demographic, hematological, and biochemical data were obtained at diagnosis, and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based scores were calculated accordingly. Patients were followed up until February 2018 or until death. (3) Results: A total of 327 patients were analyzed. The prevalence of classic SBP was nearly equivalent to CNNA. As for the microbial pattern, Gram-negative bacillus (GNB) remained more prevalent than GPC (75 vs. 25%), with E. coli being the most common bacterial species, followed by K. Pneumoniae and then Staphylococcus. The percentage of ESBL strain in culture-positive patients was 10.9%. By univariable and multivariable logistic regression survival analysis, there was no significant difference in predicting short-term mortality among the three SBP types, neither between GNB vs. GPC nor between ESBL- and non-ESBL-producing bacteria. Only bacteremia (sepsis), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and serum creatinine (Cr) were independent predictors of in-hospital and 3-month mortality, whereas HRS and Cr were independent predictors of 6-month mortality. (4) Conclusions: SBP types, Gram stain result, and ESBL strain did not affect survival. Only bacteremia (sepsis), HRS, and serum Cr independently predicted the short-term mortality in patients with SBP.

Rethinking Liver Fibrosis Staging in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: New Insights from a Large Two-Center Cohort Study

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a prevalent and aggressive malignancy closely related to background chronic liver disease. This study aimed to explore predictive factors associated with background liver fibrosis burden in patients with HCC and sought to construct a practical predictive model for clinical use.

Methods

This large two-center retrospective cohort study evaluated data from Chinese medical centers. Uni- and multivariate ordinal logistic regression analyses were performed to identify variables associated with liver fibrosis stages. Predictive models based on variables identified by multivariate analysis were established in the Derivation Cohort and subjected to internal and external validation. Model performance was evaluated for discriminative and calibration abilities.

Results

Multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis identified liver fibrosis severity score (LFSS), portal hypertension (PH) severity, plateletcrit (PCT) and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) as independent predictors of liver fibrosis stage in HCC patients. Nomograms that integrated these factors disclosed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to predict S1 in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts were 0.850 and 0.919, respectively. Internal validation disclosed C-indexes of 0.823 and 0.833 in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts, respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good and excellent performance for distinguishing between S1 and non-S1 patients. Nomogram performance in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts, respectively, was fair and good to predict stage S2 (AUROCs 0.726, 0.806; C-indexes 0.713, 0.791); poor for S3 (AUROCs 0.648, 0.698; C-indexes 0.616, 0.666); good for S4 (AUROCs 0.812, 0.824; C-indexes 0.804, 0.792); and good for S3+S4 (AUROCs 0.806, 0.840; C-indexes 0.795, 0.811).

Conclusion

We propose new predictive models for the staging of background liver fibrosis in patients with HCC that can be implemented into clinical practice as important complements to hepatic imaging to inform HCC management strategy.

An Epidemiological Meta-Analysis on the Worldwide Prevalence, Resistance, and Outcomes of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis in Cirrhosis

Background and Aims: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a common and potentially fatal complication of liver cirrhosis. This study aims to analyze the prevalence of SBP among liver cirrhotic patients according to geographical location and income level, and risk factors and outcomes of SBP. Methods: A systematic search for articles describing prevalence, risk factors and outcomes of SBP was conducted. A single-arm meta-analysis was performed using generalized linear mix model (GLMM) with Clopper-Pearson intervals. Results: Ninety-Nine articles, comprising a total of 5,861,142 individuals with cirrhosis were included. Pooled prevalence of SBP was found to be 17.12% globally (CI: 13.63-21.30%), highest in Africa (68.20%; CI: 12.17-97.08%), and lowest in North America (10.81%; CI: 5.32-20.73%). Prevalence of community-acquired SBP was 6.05% (CI: 4.32-8.40%), and 11.11% (CI: 5.84-20.11%,) for healthcare-associated SBP. Antibiotic-resistant microorganisms were found in 11.77% (CI: 7.63-17.73%) of SBP patients. Of which, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was most common (6.23%; CI: 3.83-9.97%), followed by extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing organisms (6.19%; CI: 3.32-11.26%), and lastly vancomycin-resistant enterococci (1.91%; CI: 0.41-8.46%). Subgroup analysis comparing prevalence, antibiotic resistance, and outcomes between income groups was conducted to explore a link between socioeconomic status and SBP, which revealed decreased risk of SBP and negative outcomes in high-income countries. Conclusion: SBP remains a frequent complication of liver cirrhosis worldwide. The drawn link between income level and SBP in liver cirrhosis may enable further insight on actions necessary to tackle the disease on a global scale.

ALBI versus child-pugh in predicting outcome of patients with HCC: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive tumor type which results in poor prognosis. ALBI and Child-Pugh score have been widely applied for predicting prognosis in patients with liver diseases. We conducted a systematic review to compare the prognostic ability of ALBI versus Child-Pugh in HCC patients.

AREAS COVERED

PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library were explored. The data were extracted from every study. Studies investigating HCC patients and comparing the predicting ability between ALBI and Child-Pugh were analyzed.

EXPERT OPINION

This systematic review revealed that ALBI showed better discriminative ability than Child-Pugh for predicting the prognosis in HCC patients. However, the predictive abilities of two scores should be improved. Except for the most common used serum biomarker AFP for diagnosis and surveillance of HCC, recent studies have also explored all aspects of HCC through genome-wide sequencing, exome sequencing, RNA sequencing and genome-wide methylation analysis which provide essential clues for genotyping of HCC. Further studies should explore biomarkers by advanced techniques to validate new prognostic tools for early diagnosis and prognosis of HCC. Moreover, multicenter prospective studies should be carried out to compare the prognostic values of predictive indicators in HCC population in the future.

Initial choice of antibiotic in recurrent spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: A retrospective study

Context:

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a commonly encountered infection seen in the setting of ascites secondary to advanced liver disease. Recurrence of SBP is common and is associated with high mortality. This study was designed to recognize a better initial choice of antibiotic in case of recurrent SBP – a third-generation cephalosporin or a carbapenem.

Aims:

This study aims to determine a better initial choice of antibiotic in case of recurrent SBP and to compare the all-cause mortality among two different groups of patients treated with a third-generation cephalosporin and a carbapenem.

Settings and Design:

This study was conducted among fifty patients presenting with recurrent SBP visiting the emergency department (ED) at a tertiary care center and who were subsequently admitted in a gastroenterology intensive care unit, during a period of 1 year.

Subjects and Methods:

This is a retrospective, observational study conducted among patients with chronic liver disease and diagnosed with recurrent SBP visiting the ED at a tertiary care center in South India treated with either of two classes of antibiotics – third-generation cephalosporins or carbapenems, and their outcomes were compared. Recurrence is defined as an episode of SBP after resolution of the first index case of SBP within 1 year.

Statistical Analysis Used:

Statistical analysis was done using IBM SPSS version 23.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). All categorical variables were represented as percentages, and all continuous variables were represented as mean ± standard deviation. To test the statistical significance of the association of categorical variables with the outcome, Chi-square test was used. P <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results:

A total of fifty patients with recurrent SBP were included in the study, of which 44 (88%) patients were male and 6 patients were female (12%). Twenty-nine (58%) patients survived and 21 (42%) patients expired within 28 days. Twenty-seven (54%) patients were treated with third-generation cephalosporins and 23 (46%) were treated with carbapenems. It was observed that mortality was statistically significantly lower among patients treated with carbapenem (P = 0.001). The incidence of acute kidney injury was also lower among patients treated with a carbapenem than patients treated with a third-generation cephalosporin (40.7% vs. 59.25%, respectively).

Conclusions:

Initiation of a carbapenem significantly reduced the all-cause mortality when compared to a third-generation cephalosporin as an initial antibiotic of choice in recurrent SBP.