The predictive value of procalcitonin combined with C-reactive protein and D dimer in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis

The value of immature granulocyte percentage united with D-Dimer in the evaluation of severe pancreatitis and its prognosis

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed at analyzing the serum expression of Immature Granulocyte percentage (IG %) and D-Dimer (D-D) in patients with severe pancreatitis and exploring their clinical diagnostic value.

METHODS

Eighty-four cases with severe pancreatitis received in Shengjing Hospital, China Medical University from July 2020 to July 2023 were regarded as the study group and conducted for retrospective analysis. They were divided into a survival group (n = 62) and a death group (n = 22) based on the prognosis. Another 80 patients diagnosed with mild and moderate pancreatitis were selected as the control group. Serum IG % and D-D levels of all subjects were analyzed and the value of IG % and D-D in the evaluation of severe pancreatitis and its prognosis was conducted by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

The IG % and D-D levels in the study group were markedly higher than the control group (p < 0.05). The IG % and D-D level in the death group were observably higher than the survival group (p < 0.05). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of IG % and D-D combined assessment for severe pancreatitis was 0.963, and the sensitivity and specificity were 98.75 %, 82.14 %, respectively. The AUC of IG % and D-D combined assessment for prognosis of severe pancreatitis was 0.814 with a sensitivity of 79.03 % and a specificity of 77.27 %. The efficiency of joint evaluation of the two indicators is superior to the individual evaluation.

CONCLUSION

Serum IG % and D-D are highly expressed in patients with severe pancreatitis, which has important clinical value for the evaluation of severe pancreatitis and its prognosis.

Ferritin and Ferritin-to-Hemoglobin Ratio as Promising Prognostic Biomarkers of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis-A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is an inflammation of the pancreas with variable outcomes depending on its severity. Multiple systems of prediction have been proposed, each with variable specificity and sensitivity and with uneven clinical use. Ferritin is a versatile protein associated with various acute and chronic conditions.

AIMS

In our study, we aimed to assess the association of serum ferritin and the ferritin-to-hemoglobin ratio (FHR) with the severity of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted in our hospital from January 2020 to September 2022 and included 116 patients with acute pancreatitis (graded according to the revised Atlanta classification). Serum ferritin and FHR were determined next to established laboratory parameters in the first 24 h following admission (hematological parameters, amylase, lipase, C-reactive protein, D-dimers, lactate dehydrogenase). We performed a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for potential predictors. Also, we made correlations and conducted univariate and multivariate analyses for all potential severity biomarkers.

RESULTS

The median values of serum ferritin and FHR differed significantly between patients with severe acute pancreatitis and mild cases (serum ferritin: 352.40 vs. 197.35 ng/mL, p = 0.011; FHR: 23.73 vs. 13.74, p = 0.002) and between patients with organ failure and those without organ failure (serum ferritin: 613.45 vs. 279.65 ng/mL, p = 0.000; FHR: 48.12 vs. 18.64, p = 0.000). The medians of the serum ferritin and FHR levels were significantly higher in non-survivors compared with survivors (serum ferritin: 717.71 vs. 305.67 ng/mL, p = 0.013; FHR: 52.73 vs. 19.58, p = 0.016). Serum ferritin and FHR were good predictors for organ failure and mortality, next to D-dimers and procalcitonin (AUC > 0.753 for organ failure and AUC > 0.794 for mortality). In univariate regression analysis, serum ferritin and FHR were independent variables for moderate-severe forms of acute pancreatitis. Still, adjusting the multivariate analysis, only FHR remained a significant predictor. The cut-offs for serum ferritin and FHR for predicting organ failure were 437.81 ng/mL (sensitivity, 71%; specificity, 75%) and 45.63 (sensitivity, 61%; specificity, 88%), and those for mortality during hospitalization were 516 ng/mL (sensitivity, 83%; specificity, 74%) and 51.58 (sensitivity, 66%; specificity, 86%).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum ferritin and the ferritin-to-hemoglobin ratio stood out in this study as valuable and accessible predictors of disease severity in the early assessment of acute pancreatitis, next to established severity serum markers (CRP, fibrinogen, D-dimers).

Decreased HDL-C Levels as a Predictor of Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is reported as a biomarker of systemic inflammation and multi-organ failure (MOF), which has been rarely investigated in acute pancreatitis (AP), a frequent condition in the emergency department (ED). The objective was to study the predictive capacity of the decrease in HDL-C to the progression of MOF in AP in the ED; analyzing 114 patients with AP for one year in a longitudinal and prospective study, AP severity was obtained by the Atlanta classification, in relation to modified Marshall and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scores, and clinical and laboratory parameters in a 48 h hospital stay. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the validity of the predictor and define optimal cut-off points. It was found that AP was classified as severe in 24.5%, mainly for biliary etiology (78.9%) and female sex (73.6%). As a biomarker, HDL-C decreased from 31.6 to 29.5 mg/dL in a 48 h stay (p < 0.001), correlating negatively with the increase in severity index > 2 and the modified Marshall (p < 0.032) and BISAP (p < 0.009) scores, finding an area under the ROC curve with a predictive capacity of 0.756 (95% CI, 0.614-0.898; p < 0.004) and a cut-off point of 28.5 mg/dL (sensitivity: 79%, specificity: 78%), demonstrating that the decrease in HDL-C levels serves as a useful indicator with a predictive capacity for MOF in mild to severe AP, during a 48 h hospital stay in the ED.

Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can progress to lung and kidney dysfunction, and blood clotting within 48 hours of its onset, and is associated with a high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable diagnostic prediction model for the early stage of severe pancreatitis.

Methods

The clinical data of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from October 2017 to June 2022 at the Shangluo Central Hospital were collected. The risk factors were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. A novel nomogram model was then established by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

The data of 436 patients with acute pancreatitis, 45 (10.3%) patients had progressed to SAP. Through univariate and LASSO regression analyses, the neutrophils (P <0.001), albumin (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P < 0.001), serum calcium (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.001) and procalcitonin (P = 0.005) were identified as independent predictive factors for SAP. The nomogram built on the basis of these factors predicted SAP with sensitivity of 0.733, specificity of 0.9, positive predictive value of 0.458 and negative predictive value of 0.967. Furthermore, the concordance index of the nomogram reached 0.889 (95% CI, 0.837-0.941), and the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was significantly higher than that of the APACHEII and ABISAP scoring systems. The established model was validated by plotting the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Conclusion

We established a nomogram to predict the progression of early acute pancreatitis to SAP with high discrimination and accuracy.

A novel HCP (heparin-binding protein-C reactive protein-procalcitonin) inflammatory composite model can predict severe acute pancreatitis

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) presents with an aggressive clinical presentation and high lethality rate. Early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis will help physicians to further precise treatment and improve intervention. This study aims to construct a composite model that can predict SAP using inflammatory markers. 212 patients with acute pancreatitis enrolled from January 2018 to June 2020 were included in this study, basic parameters at admission and 24 h after hospitalization, and laboratory results such as inflammatory markers were collected. Pearson's test was used to analyze the correlation between heparin-binding protein (HBP), procalcitonin (PCT), and C-reactive protein (CRP). Risk factors affecting SAP were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, inflammatory marker models were constructed, and subject operating curves were used to verify the discrimination of individual as well as inflammatory marker models and to find the optimal cut-off value based on the maximum Youden index. In the SAP group, the plasma levels of HBP, CRP, and PCT were 139.1 ± 74.8 ng/mL, 190.7 ± 106.3 mg/L and 46.3 ± 22.3 ng/mL, and 25.3 ± 16.0 ng/mL, 145.4 ± 67.9 mg/L and 27.9 ± 22.4 ng/mL in non-SAP patients, with a statistically significant difference between the two groups (P < 0.001), The Pearson correlation analysis showed a positive correlation between the three values of HBP, CRP, and PCT. The results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that HBP (OR = 1.070 [1.044-1.098], P < 0.001), CRP (OR = 1.010 [1.004-1.016], P = 0.001), and PCT (OR = 1.030[1.007-1.053], P < 0.001) were risk factors for SAP, and the area under the curve of the HBP-CRP-PCT model was 0.963 (0.936-0.990). The HCP model, consisting of HBP, CRP, and PCT; is well differentiated and easy to use and can predict the risk of SAP in advance.

Prognostic molecular biomarkers in chordomas: A systematic review and identification of clinically usable biomarker panels

Introduction and objective

Despite the improvements in management and treatment of chordomas over time, the risk of disease recurrence remains high. Consequently, there is a push to develop effective systemic therapeutics for newly diagnosed and recurrent disease. In order to tailor treatment for individual chordoma patients and develop effective surveillance strategies, suitable clinical biomarkers need to be identified. The objective of this study was to systematically review all prognostic biomarkers for chordomas reported to date in order to classify them according to localization, study design and statistical analysis.

Methods

Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we systematically reviewed published studies reporting biomarkers that correlated with clinical outcomes. We included time-to-event studies that evaluated biomarkers in skull base or spine chordomas. To be included in our review, the study must have analyzed the outcomes with univariate and/or multivariate methods (log-rank test or a Cox-regression model).

Results

We included 68 studies, of which only 5 were prospective studies. Overall, 103 biomarkers were analyzed in 3183 patients. According to FDA classification, 85 were molecular biomarkers (82.5%) mainly located in nucleus and cytoplasm (48% and 27%, respectively). Thirty-four studies analyzed biomarkers with Cox-regression model. Within these studies, 32 biomarkers (31%) and 22 biomarkers (21%) were independent prognostic factors for PFS and OS, respectively.

Conclusion

Our analysis identified a list of 13 biomarkers correlating with tumor control rates and survival. The future point will be gathering all these results to guide the clinical validation for a chordoma biomarker panel. Our identified biomarkers have strengths and weaknesses according to FDA’s guidelines, some are affordable, have a low-invasive collection method and can be easily measured in any health care setting (RDW and D-dimer), but others molecular biomarkers need specialized assay techniques (microRNAs, PD-1 pathway markers, CDKs and somatic chromosome deletions were more chordoma-specific). A focused list of biomarkers that correlate with local recurrence, metastatic spread and survival might be a cornerstone to determine the need of adjuvant therapies.