Do Residents Participating in Minnesota’s Return to Community Initiative Experience Similar Postdischarge Outcomes to Their Peers?

Return to community living and mortality after moving to a long-term care facility: A nationally representative cohort study

BACKGROUND

Recent long-term care facility (LTCF) policy has focused on transitioning nursing home (NH) residents back to community settings, yet we lack recent descriptions of this phenomenon and how it compares in assisted living (AL).

METHODS

Using the National Health and Aging Trends Study, we studied adults over age 65 who had moved from community living into an LTCF between 2011 and 2018. Persons or their proxies reported residence in annual interviews. NH was defined by facility staff. ALs were multi-unit buildings helping with activities of daily living. We excluded temporary short-stay NH patients and independent AL residents. Our primary outcome was cumulative incidence of return to community living, with death as co-primary outcome and modeled as a competing risk, stratified by NH versus AL entry. We identified covariates (age, gender, race/ethnicity, dementia, activity limitations, and prior living arrangement) associated with return to community living through bivariate and multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 739 participants, weighted mean age was 84 years (SD 7.5), 66% were women, 13% were non-White, 57% had dementia, and 41% entered NH. At 1, 2, and 4 years, the cumulative incidence of return to community living was 2.9% (95% CIs: 1.9%-4.3%), 6.4% (4.7%-8.4%), and 7.4% (5.5%-9.8%); the cumulative incidence of death was 28% (95% CIs: 24%-31%), 44% (40%-48%) and 66% (61%-70%). Outcomes were similar in persons entering NH versus AL. Older persons (aOR 0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.94), those with dementia (aOR 0.33, 95% CI 0.12-0.88), and those previously living alone (aOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.17-0.89) were less likely to return.

CONCLUSIONS

Few returned to community living after entering either NH or AL. Mortality was similar. Results highlight limits in transitioning persons out of LTCFs and the need to observe AL use to ensure policies do not merely displace persons between institutional care sectors.

Using a Semi-Markov Model to Estimate Medicaid Cost Savings due to Minnesota's Return to Community Initiative

OBJECTIVES

To provide an estimate and level of uncertainty for Medicaid cost savings due to Minnesota's Return to Community Initiative (RTCI).

DESIGN

Medicaid cost savings are estimated using a semi-Markov model and simulation approach.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

RTCI is a statewide program that assists private paying nursing home residents with discharge to the community. When originally proposed, it was expected that the program would reduce state Medicaid expenditures, primarily through the shifting of residents from nursing homes to a less costly community setting. In prior analysis, we estimated that approximately 1 in 9 residents targeted for transition by the program would not have returned to the community without the RTCI. Accurate cost savings estimates require consideration of complex resident care trajectories, that is, nursing home readmissions, use of assisted living and community-based services, and mortality.

MEASURES

Data were from 30,234 private pay nursing home residents admitted during 2011, primarily for post-acute stays, to 378 facilities in Minnesota, and followed for 4 years postadmission for outcomes and time to event. Resident characteristics were taken from the Minimum Data Set (MDS) admission assessment. We modeled variability in care trajectories with a semi-Markov formulation. Transition probabilities were estimated using Multinomial regression. Time to event was modeled using the best-fitting, positive, right-skewed distribution for each path. The simulation was run (1000 times) with and without the RTCI impact to estimate change in Medicaid days in various settings.

RESULTS

Program savings was estimated at $4.1 million per year of effort over a 4-year accumulation period.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

The RTCI produced a modest Medicaid cost savings in excess of the annual program budget of $3.5 million. Findings from the semi-Markov model and simulation increase our understanding of care transitions between nursing home, community, Medicaid status, and mortality.