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Feng JW, Liu SQ, Qi GF, Ye J, Hong LZ, Wu WX, Jiang Y. Development and Validation of Clinical-Radiomics Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma. Acad Radiol 2024; 31:2292-2305. [PMID: 38233259 DOI: 10.1016/j.acra.2023.12.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2023] [Revised: 11/24/2023] [Accepted: 12/01/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND This investigation sought to create and verify a nomogram utilizing ultrasound radiomics and crucial clinical features to preoperatively identify central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients diagnosed with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). METHODS We enrolled 1069 patients with PTC between January 2022 and January 2023. All patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 748) and a validation cohort (n = 321). We extracted 129 radiomics features from the original gray-scale ultrasound image. Then minimum Redundancy-Maximum Relevance and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression were used to select the CLNM-related features and calculate the radiomic signature. Incorporating the radiomic signature and clinical risk factors, a clinical-radiomics nomogram was constructed using multivariable logistic regression. The predictive performance of clinical-radiomics nomogram was evaluated by calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility in the training and validation cohorts. RESULTS The clinical-radiomics nomogram which consisted of five predictors (age, tumor size, margin, lateral lymph node metastasis, and radiomics signature), showed good calibration and discrimination in both the training (AUC 0.960; 95% CI, 0.947-0.972) and the validation (AUC 0.925; 95% CI, 0.895-0.955) cohorts. Discrimination of the clinical-radiomics nomogram showed better discriminative ability than the clinical signature, radiomics signature, and conventional ultrasound model in both the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis showed satisfactory clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSION The clinical-radiomics nomogram incorporating radiomic signature and key clinical features was efficacious in predicting CLNM in PTC patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia-Wei Feng
- Department of thyroid surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Changzhou First People's Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China (J.W.F., G.F.Q., J.Y., L.Z.H., W.X.W., Y.J.)
| | - Shui-Qing Liu
- Department of Ultrasound, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Changzhou First People's Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China (S.Q.L.)
| | - Gao-Feng Qi
- Department of thyroid surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Changzhou First People's Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China (J.W.F., G.F.Q., J.Y., L.Z.H., W.X.W., Y.J.)
| | - Jing Ye
- Department of thyroid surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Changzhou First People's Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China (J.W.F., G.F.Q., J.Y., L.Z.H., W.X.W., Y.J.)
| | - Li-Zhao Hong
- Department of thyroid surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Changzhou First People's Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China (J.W.F., G.F.Q., J.Y., L.Z.H., W.X.W., Y.J.)
| | - Wan-Xiao Wu
- Department of thyroid surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Changzhou First People's Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China (J.W.F., G.F.Q., J.Y., L.Z.H., W.X.W., Y.J.)
| | - Yong Jiang
- Department of thyroid surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Changzhou First People's Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China (J.W.F., G.F.Q., J.Y., L.Z.H., W.X.W., Y.J.).
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Huang H, Liu Y, Ni S, Liu S. A prediction model for identifying high-risk lymph node metastasis in clinical low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. BMC Endocr Disord 2023; 23:260. [PMID: 38012653 PMCID: PMC10680325 DOI: 10.1186/s12902-023-01521-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The presence of high-volume lymph node metastasis (LNM) and extranodal extension (ENE) greatly increases the risk of recurrence in patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). The goal of this research was to analyze the factors that contribute to high-risk lymph node metastasis in patients with low-risk PTMC. METHODS We analyzed the records of 7344 patients who were diagnosed with low-risk PTMC and treated at our center from January 2013 to June 2018.LNM with a high volume or ENE was classified as high-risk lymph node metastasis (hr-LNM). A logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors associated with hr-LNM. A nomogram was created and verified using risk factors obtained from LASSO regression analysis, to predict the likelihood of hr-LNM. RESULTS The rate of hr-LNM was 6.5%. LASSO regression revealed six variables that independently contribute to hr-LNM: sex, age, tumor size, tumor location, Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT), and microscopic capsular invasion. A predictive nomogram was developed by integrating these risk factors, demonstrating its excellent performance. Upon analyzing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicting hr-LNM, it was observed that the area under the curve (AUC) had a value of 0.745 and 0.730 in the training and testing groups showed strong agreement, affirming great reliability. CONCLUSION Sex, age, tumor size, tumor location, HT, and microscopic capsular invasion were determined to be key factors associated with hr-LNM in low-risk PTMC. Utilizing these factors, a nomogram was developed to evaluate the risk of hr-LNM in patients with low-risk PTMC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Huang
- Department of Head and Neck Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Centre, National Clinical Research Centre for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, No. 17, Panjiayuan Nanli, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100021, China
| | - Yunhe Liu
- Department of Head and Neck Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Centre, National Clinical Research Centre for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, No. 17, Panjiayuan Nanli, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100021, China
| | - Song Ni
- Department of Head and Neck Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Centre, National Clinical Research Centre for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, No. 17, Panjiayuan Nanli, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100021, China.
| | - Shaoyan Liu
- Department of Head and Neck Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Centre, National Clinical Research Centre for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, No. 17, Panjiayuan Nanli, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100021, China
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Zhang M, Zhang Y, Wei H, Yang L, Liu R, Zhang B, Lyu S. Ultrasound radiomics nomogram for predicting large-number cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1159114. [PMID: 37361586 PMCID: PMC10285658 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1159114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/25/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose To evaluate the value of preoperative ultrasound (US) radiomics nomogram of primary papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) for predicting large-number cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM). Materials and methods A retrospective study was conducted to collect the clinical and ultrasonic data of primary PTC. 645 patients were randomly divided into training and testing datasets according to the proportion of 7:3. Minimum redundancy-maximum relevance (mRMR) and least absolution shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were used to select features and establish radiomics signature. Multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a US radiomics nomogram containing radiomics signature and selected clinical characteristics. The efficiency of the nomogram was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve, and the clinical application value was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA). Testing dataset was used to validate the model. Results TG level, tumor size, aspect ratio, and radiomics signature were significantly correlated with large-number CLNM (all P< 0.05). The ROC curve and calibration curve of the US radiomics nomogram showed good predictive efficiency. In the training dataset, the AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.935, 0.897, 0.956, and 0.837, respectively, and in the testing dataset, the AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.782, 0.910, 0.533 and 0.943 respectively. DCA showed that the nomogram had some clinical benefits in predicting large-number CLNM. Conclusion We have developed an easy-to-use and non-invasive US radiomics nomogram for predicting large-number CLNM with PTC, which combines radiomics signature and clinical risk factors. The nomogram has good predictive efficiency and potential clinical application value.
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Wang Z, Gui Z, Wang Z, Huang J, He L, Dong W, Zhang D, Zhang T, Shao L, Shi J, Wu P, Ji X, Zhang H, Sun W. Clinical and ultrasonic risk factors for high-volume central lymph node metastasis in cN0 papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: A retrospective study and meta-analysis. Clin Endocrinol (Oxf) 2023; 98:609-621. [PMID: 36263602 DOI: 10.1111/cen.14834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2022] [Revised: 09/21/2022] [Accepted: 10/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) comprises more than 50% of all newly detected cases of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). High-volume lymph node metastasis (involving >5 lymph nodes) (hv-LNM) is associated with PTMC recurrence. In half of the clinically node-negative (cN0) PTMC patients, central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is pathologically present. However, clinical risk factors for high-volume CLNM (hv-CLNM) in cN0 PTMC have not been defined well. Therefore, we aimed to obtain evidence for hv-CLNM risk factors in cN0 PTMC. DESIGN Data on patients who visited our hospital between January 2020 and December 2021 were collected; a preoperative diagnosis of cN0 and a postoperative pathological confirmation of PTMC were obtained. After filtering by inclusion versus exclusion criteria, the obtained data (N = 2268) were included in the meta-analysis. Relevant studies published as of 10 April 2022, were identified from the Web of Science, PubMed, WANFANG, and CNKI databases. These eligible studies were included in the meta-analysis and the association between clinicopathological factors and hv-CLNM in cN0 PTMC was assessed. SPSS and MetaXL were used for statistical analyses. RESULTS The meta-analysis included 10 previous studies (11,734 patients) and 2268 patients enroled in our hospital for a total of 14,002 subjects. The results of which suggested that younger age (<40, odds ratio [OR] = 3.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.75-3.92, p < .001 or <45 odds ratio [OR] = 2.93, 95% CI = 2.31-3.72, p < .001), male sex (OR = 2.81, 95% CI = 2.25-3.52, p < .001), tumour size >5 mm (OR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.39-2.47, p < .001), multifocality (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.56-2.26, p < .001), extrathyroidal extension (OR = 2.58, 95% CI = 2.02-3.30, p < .001), capsule invasion (OR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.46-2.78, p < .001), microcalcification (OR = 3.25, 95% CI = 2.42-4.36, p < .001) and rich blood flow (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.21-2.25, p = .002) were the significant factors related to an elevated hv-CLNM risk in cN0 PTMC patients. Hashimoto thyroiditis (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.55-1.07, p = .114), irregular margin (versus regular margin, OR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.68-1.33, p = .787) and hypoechoic (versus nonhypoechoic, OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 0.84-1.92, p = .261) showed no significant association with hv-CLNM. CONCLUSIONS Younger age, tumour size >5 mm, males, extrathyroidal extension, multifocality, microcalcification, capsular invasion, and rich blood flow were the significant clinicopathological risk factors for hv-CLNM risk in cN0 PTMC patients. These predictors may compensate for the sensitivity of imaging diagnosis in the preoperative period, thus helping in the effective identification of PTMCs with an invasive phenotype.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiyuan Wang
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Zhiqiang Gui
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Zhihong Wang
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Jiapeng Huang
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Liang He
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Wenwu Dong
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Dalin Zhang
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Ting Zhang
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Liang Shao
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Jinyuan Shi
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Pu Wu
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Xiaoyu Ji
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Hao Zhang
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
| | - Wei Sun
- Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, P. R. China
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Hafez LG, Elkomos BE, El-Shafaei MAM, Omran HMA, Saad AS. The risk of central nodal metastasis based on prognostic factors of the differentiated thyroid carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis study. Eur Arch Otorhinolaryngol 2023; 280:2675-2686. [PMID: 36759363 PMCID: PMC10175472 DOI: 10.1007/s00405-023-07863-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2022] [Accepted: 01/24/2023] [Indexed: 02/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Despite improving the 10-year disease-free-survival, prophylactic central neck dissection (pCND) in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) should only be considered in patients with high risk factors for lymph node (LN) metastasis due to the increases in the risk of postoperative complications. Our aim was to identify the risk factors for central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in DTC. METHOD We searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of science, Cochrane library for eligible studies from inception to November 1, 2021 and a systematic review and meta-analysis were carried out to identify the risk factors for CLNM in DTC. RESULTS We included 41 studies with total of 27,741 patients in this study. The pooled results in this meta-analysis showed that these risk factors were significantly associated with CLNM: age < 45 years (odds ratio (OR) 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-1.99, p < 0.00001), male sex (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.54-1.93, p < 0.00001), multifocality (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.59-2.19, p < 0.00001), bilateral disease (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.15-1.78, p < 0.001), capsular invasion (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.10-2.54, p < 0.02), lymphovascular invasion (OR 4.89, 95% CI 2.76-8.66, p < 0.00001) and extra-thyroidal extension (OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.97-3.00, p < 0.00001). In addition, young age (< 45 years), male sex, multifocality, and extra-thyroidal extension were significantly associated with large-volume CLNM in clinically N0 DTC patients. However, the presence of Hashimoto's thyroiditis was not a predictors of large-volume CLNM. CONCLUSION Young age (< 45 years), male sex, bilateral disease, multifocality, capsular invasion, lymphovascular invasion and extra-thyroidal extension are significantly associated with CLNM and pCND would be expected to have a higher yield in patients with these risk factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lamiaa Gomaa Hafez
- General Surgery Department, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Tomanbia Street, Elzytoon, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Beshoy Effat Elkomos
- General Surgery Department, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Tomanbia Street, Elzytoon, Cairo, Egypt
| | | | - Hesham Mohamed Ali Omran
- General Surgery Department, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Tomanbia Street, Elzytoon, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Ahmed Saeed Saad
- General Surgery Department, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Tomanbia Street, Elzytoon, Cairo, Egypt
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Feng H, Chen Z, An M, Chen Y, Chen B. Nomogram for preoperative prediction of high-volume lymph node metastasis in the classical variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma. Front Surg 2023; 10:1106137. [PMID: 36843997 PMCID: PMC9945534 DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2023.1106137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2022] [Accepted: 01/10/2023] [Indexed: 02/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction The objective of our study was to construct a preoperative prediction nomogram for the classical variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (CVPTC) patients with a solitary lesion based on demographic and ultrasonographic parameters that can quantify the individual probability of high-volume (>5) lymph node metastasis (HVLNM). Materials and methods In this study, a total of 626 patients with CVPTC from December 2017 to November 2022 were reviewed. Their demographic and ultrasonographic features at baseline were collected and analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Significant factors after the multivariate analysis were incorporated into a nomogram for predicting HVLNM. A validation set from the last 6 months of the study period was conducted to evaluate the model performance. Results Male sex, tumor size >10 mm, extrathyroidal extension (ETE), and capsular contact >50% were independent risk factors for HVLNM, whereas middle and old age were significant protective factors. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.842 in the training and 0.875 in the validation set. Conclusions The preoperative nomogram can help tailor the management strategy to the individual patient. Additionally, more vigilant and aggressive measures may benefit patients at risk of HVLNM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huahui Feng
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, The Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
| | - Zheming Chen
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, The Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
| | - Maohui An
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, The Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
| | - Yanwei Chen
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, The Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
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Luo QW, Gao S, Lv X, Li SJ, Wang BF, Han QQ, Wang YP, Guan QL, Gong T. A novel tool for predicting the risk of central lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study. BMC Cancer 2022; 22:606. [PMID: 35655253 PMCID: PMC9164332 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-022-09655-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2021] [Accepted: 05/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Central lymph node status in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) plays an important role in treatment decision-making clinically, however, it is not easy to predict central lymph node metastasis (CLNM). The present work focused on finding the more rational alternative for evaluating central lymph node status while identifying influencing factors to construct a model to predict CLNM incidence. Methods In this study, we retrospectively analyzed the typical sonographic and clinicopathologic features of 546 PTMC patients who underwent surgery, among which, the data of 382 patients were recruited in the training cohort and that of 164 patients in the validation cohort. Based on the outcome of the training cohort, significant influencing factors were further identified through univariate analysis and were considered as independent variables in multivariable logistic regression analysis and incorporated in and presented with a nomogram. Results In total, six independent predictors, including the age, sex, tumor size, multifocality, capsular invasion, Hashimotos thyroiditis were entered into the nomogram. Both internal validation and external validation revealed the favorable discrimination of our as-constructed nomogram. Calibration curves exhibited high consistency. As suggested by decision-curve analyses, the as-constructed nomogram might be applied in clinic. Besides, the model also distinguished patients according to risk stratification. Conclusions The novel nomogram containing remarkable influencing factors for CLNM cases was established in the present work. The nomogram can assist clinicians in clinical decision-making.
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Gao L, Li X, Liu C, Liu R, Shi X, Ma L, Zhao H, Xia Y, Jiang Y. What Are the Characteristics of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma Prone to High-Volume Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis? - An Analysis of 2981 Consecutive Cases. J INVEST SURG 2022; 35:1519-1525. [PMID: 35610088 DOI: 10.1080/08941939.2022.2075494] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE To identify candidate factors for predicting high-volume lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). METHODS We retrospectively studied 2981 patients with PTMC who underwent thyroidectomy from 2013 to 2016. LLNM was identified by histopathology. Patients with different LLNM statuses were compared according to clinical, sonographic and pathological parameters. A multivariate logistic model was established to predict high-volume LLNM (number of metastatic lymph nodes >5). RESULTS High-volume LLNM of PTMC was independently associated with age < 40 years (OR = 1.791, P = 0.023), male sex (OR = 2.401, p = 0.001), tumor size > 0.5 cm (OR = 4.839, p < 0.001), extrathyroidal extension (OR = 2.097, p = 0.007) and microcalcification (OR = 2.894, p = 0.002). These five factors were incorporated together to develop a multivariate analysis, which showed good predictive ability (AUC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.72-0.83), with a sensitivity of 80.0% and a specificity of 61.4%. Moreover, more level II or V lateral regions were involved in patients with high-volume LLNM than in those with small-volume LLNM (69.2% vs. 25.0%, p < 0.001; 10.8% vs. 4.7%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION Multilevel LLNM tended to be more common in patients with PTMC who had high-volume LLNM. The high-volume LLNM rates of patients with PTMC with age < 40 years, male sex, tumor size > 0.5 cm, extrathyroidal extension and microcalcification were relatively higher than those without. These findings may be useful for identifying patients at higher high-volume LLNM risk who may require more aggressive treatment or intensive follow-up management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luying Gao
- Department of Ultrasound, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoyi Li
- Department of General Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Chunhao Liu
- Department of General Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Ruifeng Liu
- Department of Ultrasound, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Xinlong Shi
- Department of Ultrasound, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Liyuan Ma
- Department of Ultrasound, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Hao Zhao
- Department of General Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yu Xia
- Department of Ultrasound, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yuxin Jiang
- Department of Ultrasound, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
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Clinical Factors Predictive of Lymph Node Metastasis in Thyroid Cancer Patients: A Multivariate Analysis. J Am Coll Surg 2022; 234:691-700. [PMID: 35290290 DOI: 10.1097/xcs.0000000000000107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early-stage thyroid cancers have excellent survival. However, lymph node metastases (LNM) confer a worse prognosis and are not always known preoperatively. Therefore, investigation on the clinical and histological factors predictive of LNM in thyroid cancers was conducted to tailor the extent of surgery and radioactive iodine therapy. STUDY DESIGN Multivariate logistic regressions were performed based on retrospective data from thyroid cancer patients seen between 2013 and 2020 at a single institution. RESULTS Among 913 patients, mean age was 49.4 years, 76.5% were female, 58.3% were White, 21.2% were Black, and 27.9% had LNM. In the multivariate analyses in which the outcome was LNM, White (odds ratio [OR] 1.74, 95% CI 0.98 to 3.15, p = 0.064) and Hispanic patients (OR 2.36, 95% CI 0.97 to 5.77, p = 0.059) trended toward higher risk of LNM compared to Black patients, whereas age (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.00, p = 0.008) showed protective effect. Tumor size (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.07, p = 0.007), extrathyroidal extension (OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.53 to 3.97, p < 0.001), lymphovascular invasion (OR 6.30, 95% CI 3.68 to 11.14, p < 0.001), and multifocality (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.12, p = 0.042) were associated with higher risk of LNM. In another model with outcome as >5 LNM, tumor size (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.11, p = 0.001), age (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.97, p < 0.001), extrathyroidal extension (OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.83 to 5.61, p < 0.001), and lymphovascular invasion (OR 6.82, 95% CI 3.87 to 12.17, p < 0.001) remained significant predictors. CONCLUSION Our analyses demonstrated and confirmed that age, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, and lymphovascular invasion are independent predictors of significant LNM, thereby conferring higher risk of recurrence. Risk of LNM based on these patient characteristics should be considered when planning an operative approach.
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Zhang H, Zheng X, Liu J, Gao M, Qian B. Development of an Active Surveillance or Surgery Model to Predict Lymph Node Metastasis in cN0 Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2022; 13:896121. [PMID: 35937812 PMCID: PMC9353015 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2022.896121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 05/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Involvement of multiple lymph node (LN) metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) may indicate a progressive disease. To assist treatment decision, we conducted a clinical study to develop and validate a prediction model for the preoperative evaluation of LN metastasis involving more than five lymph nodes in patients with clinical N0 (cN0) PTMC. MATERIAL AND METHODS Using data from 6,337 patients with cN0 PTMCs at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital from 2013 to 2017, we identified and integrated risk factors for the prediction of multiple LN metastasis to build a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The model was validated using bootstrap resampling of the training cohort and an independent temporal validation cohort at the same institution. RESULTS In the training cohort (n = 3,209 patients), six independent risk factors were identified and included the prediction model (PTMC Active Surveillance or Surgery (ASOS) Model), including age, gender, multifocality, tumor size, calcification, and aspect ratio. The PTMC ASOS model was validated both internally and through the temporal validation cohort (n = 3,128 patients) from the same institute. The C-indexes of the prediction model in the training cohort were 0.768 (95% CI, 0.698-0.838), 0.768 and 0.771 in the internal validation and external validation cohorts, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.7068 and 0.6799. The calibration curve for probability of large-LN metastasis showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. DCA curves were used for comparison with another model, and IDI and NRI were also calculated. The cutoff value of our model was obtained by the ROC curve. Based on this model and cut point, a web-based dynamic nomogram was developed (https://tjmuch-thyroid.shinyapps.io/PTMCASOSM/). CONCLUSION We established a novel nomogram that can help to distinguish preoperatively cN0 PTMC patients with or without metastasis of multiple lymph nodes. This clinical prediction model may be used in decision making for both active surveillance and surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huan Zhang
- Cancer Prevention Center, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin, Tianjin’s Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin, China
| | - Xiangqian Zheng
- Department of Head and Neck Tumor, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin, Tianjin’s Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin, China
| | - Juntian Liu
- Cancer Prevention Center, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin, Tianjin’s Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin, China
| | - Ming Gao
- Department of Head and Neck Tumor, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin, Tianjin’s Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin, China
- Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, Tianjin Union Medical Center, Tianjin, China
- *Correspondence: Biyun Qian, ; Ming Gao,
| | - Biyun Qian
- Hongqiao International Institute of Medicine, Shanghai Tongren Hospital and Faculty of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Shanghai Clinical Research Promotion and Development Center, Shanghai Shenkang Hospital Development Center, Shanghai, China
- *Correspondence: Biyun Qian, ; Ming Gao,
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Tan L, Ji J, Sharen G, Liu Y, Lv K. Related factor analysis for predicting large-volume central cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2022; 13:935559. [PMID: 36046785 PMCID: PMC9423095 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2022.935559] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2022] [Accepted: 07/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The aim of this study was to investigate the factors related to large-volume central cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM) in papillary thyroid carcinoma. A retrospective study of 340 patients with 642 papillary thyroid carcinoma nodules who underwent thyroidectomy in Peking Union Medical College Hospital between 2011 and 2015 was conducted. These nodules were divided into two groups by the number of central cervical lymph node metastases: large-volume central cervical LNM (>5 metastatic lymph nodes, n = 129) and no central cervical LNM (n = 211). We evaluated the correlations between gender, age, chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis, thyroid ultrasonographic features, and large-volume central cervical LNM. We found that younger age (≤40 years) (OR = 3.796, 95% CI = 2.842, 5.070), male gender (OR = 4.005, 95% CI = 2.858, 5.61), and ultrasonographic features such as tumor macroaxis size (OR = 2.985, 95% CI = 1.581, 5.633), tumor located in the isthmus (OR = 7.578, 95% CI = 4.863, 11.810), ill-defined margin (OR = 3.008, 95% CI = 1.986, 4.556), microcalcification (OR = 2.155, 95% CI = 1.585, 2.929), and abnormal cervical lymph nodes (OR = 13.753, 95% CI = 9.278, 20.385) were independent risk factors for large-volume central cervical LNM in papillary thyroid carcinoma, while chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis (OR = 0.248, 95% CI = 0.172, 0.358) was a protective factor. Younger age (≤40 years), male sex, and ultrasonographic features such as tumor macroaxis size, tumor located in the isthmus, ill-defined margin, microcalcification, and abnormal cervical lymph nodes were independent risk factors for large-volume central cervical LNM in papillary thyroid carcinoma, while chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis can be considered a protective factor. Our results provide a reference for adjusting clinical treatment approaches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Tan
- Department of Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jiaqi Ji
- Department of Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Department of Ultrasound, Aerospace Center Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Gaowa Sharen
- Department of Health Management, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yuewu Liu
- Department of General Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- *Correspondence: Yuewu Liu, ; Ke Lv,
| | - Ke Lv
- Department of Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- *Correspondence: Yuewu Liu, ; Ke Lv,
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Huang J, Song M, Shi H, Huang Z, Wang S, Yin Y, Huang Y, Du J, Wang S, Liu Y, Wu Z. Predictive Factor of Large-Volume Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Clinical N0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients Underwent Total Thyroidectomy. Front Oncol 2021; 11:574774. [PMID: 34094896 PMCID: PMC8170408 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2021.574774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2020] [Accepted: 04/30/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Large-volume central lymph node metastasis (large-volume CLNM) is associated with high recurrence rate in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. However, sensitivity in investigating large-volume CLNM on preoperative ultrasonography (US) is not high. The aim of this study is to investigate the clinical factors associated with large-volume CLNM in clinical N0 PTC patients. We reviewed 976 PTC patients undergoing total thyroidectomy with central lymph node dissection during 2017 to 2019. The rate of large-volume LNM was 4.1% (40 of 967 patients). Multivariate analysis showed that male gender and young age (age<45 years old) were independent risk factors for large-volume CLNM with odds ratios [(OR), 95% confidence interval (CI)] of 2.034 (1.015-4.073) and 2.997 (1.306-6.876), respectively. In papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), capsule invasion was associated with large-volume CLNM with OR (95% CI) of 2.845 (1.110-7.288). In conventional papillary thyroid cancer (CPTC), tumor diameter (>2cm) was associated with large-volume CLNM, with OR (95% CI) 3.757 (1.061-13.310), by multivariate analysis. In ROC curve analysis on the diameter of the CPTC tumor, the Area Under Curve (AUC) =0.682(p=0.013), the best cut-off point was selected as 2.0cm. In conclusion, male gender and young age were predictors for large-volume CLNM of cN0 PTC. cN0 PTMC patient with capsule invasion and cN0 CPTC patient with tumor diameter >2cm were correlated with large-volume CLNM. Total thyroidectomy with central lymph node dissection may be a favorable primary treatment option for those patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianhao Huang
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Shantou University Medical College, Shantou University, Shantou, China
| | - Muye Song
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- School of Medicine, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hongyan Shi
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- The Second School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Ziyang Huang
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Shantou University Medical College, Shantou University, Shantou, China
| | - Shujie Wang
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- The Second School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Ying Yin
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yijie Huang
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jialin Du
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Sanming Wang
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yongchen Liu
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- *Correspondence: Zeyu Wu, ; Yongchen Liu,
| | - Zeyu Wu
- Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- *Correspondence: Zeyu Wu, ; Yongchen Liu,
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