Changing prioritization for transplantation: MELD-Na, hepatocellular carcinoma exceptions, and more. Curr Opin Organ Transplant. 2016;21:120-126. [PMID: 26825358 DOI: 10.1097/mot.0000000000000281]

Long-term outcomes of liver transplantation for biliary atresia and results of policy changes: over 20 years of follow-up experience

Objective

Biliary atresia (BA) patients develop chronic liver disease after the Kasai operation and are eventually indicated for liver transplantation (LT). The purposes of this study were to analyze long-term outcomes after LT and risk factors that affect complications to reduce graft failure.

Study design

Overall, 145 pediatric patients who underwent LT between June 1996 and June 2020 after a diagnosis of BA were included. We performed a retrospective analysis of medical records and evaluated patient and graft survival, cumulative incidence of complications, risk factors, and the results of policy changes.

Results

Patient and graft survival rates in over 20 years were 95.8% and 91.0%, respectively. Post-transplantation lymphoproliferative disease was frequently observed in the early period of immunosuppression within the first 1-2 years after LT. The incidence of cholangitis and rejection steadily increased over time. Weight-to-portal vein size was evaluated as a risk factor for cholangitis and bile duct strictures (OR = 12.82, p = 0.006 and OR = 16.54, p = 0.015, respectively). When evaluated using 2013 as a reference point, the split graft indication was expanded and the group that received LT after 2013 had a significantly lower survival over time compared with that of the group that received LT before 2013 (p = 0.006).

Conclusion

This study revealed time differences in prevalence of complications. The evaluation of weight-to-duct or vessel size is a more important factor in considering complications than the graft-to-recipient weight ratio. Survival outcomes may have been altered by a policy change that affects the donor type ratio in transplantation.

Predictors of 30-day mortality in patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy on admission to the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to compare the laboratory findings and disease severity scores of patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in the emergency department (ED) to predict 30-day mortality.

METHOD

The patients over 18 years old and diagnosed HE in the ED of a tertiary hospital were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, predisposing causes and outcomes of the patients included in the study were recorded in the data form. Severity of liver disease was assessed by Child Pugh Score (CPS), End-stage liver disease model (MELD), MELD-Na and MELD-Lactate scores.

RESULTS

Two hundred fifty-four patients diagnosed with HE were included in the study. 59.1% of the patients were male. The mean age of the patients was 65.2 ± 12.6 years. The mortality rate of the patients was 47.2%. When the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, which determines the predictive properties of laboratory parameters and disease severity scores, was examined, the area under curve value of the MELD-Lactate score (0.858 95% CI 0.812-0.904, P  < 0.001) was the highest. Binary logistic regression analysis for the estimation of patients' 30-day mortality showed that CPS and MELD-Lactate scores and blood ammonia and B-type natriuretic peptide levels were independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

According to the study data, MELD-Lactate and BNP levels in patients diagnosed with HE in the ED may help the clinician in the prediction of 30-day mortality in the early period.

Assessing Thrombocytopenia and Chronic Liver Disease in Southeast Asia: A Multicentric Cross-Sectional Study

Background This multicentric cross-sectional study aimed to examine the prevalence of thrombocytopenia (TCP) and investigate the various causes of chronic liver disease (CLD) across 15 Southeast Asian (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) tertiary care centers over a three-month period. The study focused on assessing the fibrosis index (FI) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-sodium (Na) score's capacity to grade and predict the progression and outcomes of patients with already diagnosed CLD. Methods The cross-sectional study enrolled 377 CLD patients. The study utilized admission registries from 15 tertiary care hospitals in Southeast Asia, spanning from April 2023 to June 2023. Various descriptive variables were collected, including gender, tobacco use (specifically, chewed tobacco), underlying etiology, presence of anemia, leukopenia, pancytopenia, infectious state, and liver cirrhosis diagnosed via traditional ultrasonography. This study examined liver failure indicators, including alanine transaminase levels, compensation status, TCP, and liver transplant (LT) listing. The MELD-Na score was the focus of frequency and percentage analysis. MELD-Na and FI medians and standard deviations were provided. Results The study of 377 patients with CLD found that TCP was present in 4% of patients and leukopenia was present in 12% of patients. The risk of TCP was significantly higher in leukopenic patients (89.5%) than in non-leukopenic patients (52.5%) (p = 0.003). The most common CLD cause was undiagnosable (31%), followed by autoimmune (26%), hepatitis C virus (21%), hepatitis B virus (14%), and schistosomiasis (8%). The majority of patients (98%) had decompensated liver disease. Of the patients, 64% had TCP, while 36% did not. The illness severity indicators MELD score and FI had mean ± SD values of 16.89 ± 6.42 and 4.1 ± 1.06, respectively. Similarly, the prevalence of LT needs among traditional ultrasonography-diagnosed cirrhotic patients was 83.1%, compared to 59.6% among non-cirrhotic patients (p = 0.001). Conclusion Leukopenia and TCP may be linked, which may affect CLD treatment and prognosis in this population. Non-invasive indicators like the FI and MELD-Na score can detect liver fibrosis and severity without invasive procedures, enhancing patient management. These findings highlight the need to improve early diagnosis methods for CLD in Southeast Asia and raise awareness among clinicians about effective diagnostic strategies for non-infectious causes of CLD.

Serum Levels of Adropin Improve the Predictability of MELD and Child-Pugh Score in Cirrhosis: Results of Proof-of-Concept Clinical Trial

Adropin is a peptide that was suggested to have a role in cirrhosis. The present study aimed to determine the ability to use serum adropin levels to improve their prediction accuracy as an adjunct to the current scores. In a single-center, proof-of-concept study, serum adropin levels were determined in thirty-three cirrhotic patients. The data were analyzed in correlation with Child-Pugh and MELD-Na scores, laboratory parameters, and mortality. Adropin levels were higher among cirrhotic patients that died within 180 days (1,325.7 ng/dL vs. 870.3 ng/dL, p = 0.024) and inversely correlated to the time until death (r ² = 0.74). The correlation of adropin serum levels with mortality was better than MELD or Child-Pough scores (r ² = 0.32 and 0.38, respectively). Higher adropin levels correlated with creatinine (r ² = 0.79. p < 0.01). Patients with diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases had elevated adropin levels. Integrating adropin levels with the Child-Pugh and MELD scores improved their correlation with the time of death (correlation coefficient: 0.91 vs. 0.38 and 0.67 vs. 0.32). The data of this feasibility study suggest that combining serum adropin with the Child-Pugh score and MELD-Na score improves the prediction of mortality in cirrhosis and can serve as a measure for assessing kidney dysfunction in these patients.

Liver transplantation in gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

Neuroendocrine tumors are part of a heterogeneous group of tumors located in organs such as the gastrointestinal tract (GIT), lungs, thymus, thyroid, and adrenal glands. The most prevalent sites are the small intestine, cecal appendix, and pancreas. More than 50% of these tumors are associated with metastases at the time of diagnosis. Neuroendocrine tumors are classified according to the degree of cell differentiation and the histopathological proliferation index of the lesion. Neuroendocrine tumors can be well differentiated or poorly differentiated. G3 tumors are characterized by Ki-67 expression greater than 20% and can be either well differentiated (G3 NET) or poorly differentiated (G3 NEC). Neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC G3) is subdivided into small-cell and large-cell types. When neuroendocrine tumors present clinical and compressive symptoms, carcinoid syndrome is evident. Carcinoid syndrome occurs when the tumor produces neuroendocrine mediators that cannot be metabolized by the liver due to either the size of the tumor or their secretion by the liver itself. Several therapeutic strategies have been described for the treatment of metastatic neuroendocrine tumors, including curative or palliative surgical approaches, peptide receptor radionuclide therapy, percutaneous therapy, systemic chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. Liver surgery is the only approach that can offer a cure for metastatic patients. Liver metastases must be completely resected, and in this context, orthotopic liver transplantation has gained prominence for yielding very promising outcomes in selected cases. The aim of this study is to review the literature on OLT as a form of treatment with curative intent for patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors with liver metastasis.

Thrombocytopenia (TCP), MELD Score, and Fibrosis Index (FI) Among Hospitalized Patients with Chronic Liver Disease (CLD) in Ma'abar City, Dhamar Governorate, Yemen: A Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

This study sought to assess the prevalence of thrombocytopenia (TCP), underlying aetiologies of chronic liver disease, and the grading and prognostic systems for chronic liver disease (CLD) using non-invasive biomarkers: the Fibrosis index and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na (MELD-Na) Score, respectively.

Patients and Methods

This was a 15-month multi-centric cross-sectional study of 105 patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). The study was conducted using Sept 2019 to Nov 2020 admission records of CLD patients from Ma'abar City in Dhamar Governorate, Yemen.

Results

A total of 63 (60%) and 42 (40%) patients were identified as thrombocytopenic and non-thrombocytopenic, respectively. The means ± SD of the MELD score and FI were 19 ± 7.302 and 4.1 ± 1.06. TCP prevalence among leukopenic and non-leukopenic patients was 89.5% and 53.5%, respectively (P = 0.004). Likewise, the prevalence of traditional-ultrasonography-diagnosed cirrhotic patients needing liver transplantation (LT) was 82.3% versus 61.3% among corresponding non-cirrhotic patients (P = 0.000).

Conclusion

The prevalence of TCP among the participants of this study was similar to the global rate. However, the prevalence of decompensation was much higher among CLD patients than that found elsewhere, highlighting a need to improve methods for the early diagnosis of CLD in Yemen. This study also identified problems with the diagnostic work-up for non-infectious aetiologies of CLD. The findings suggest the need to improve clinician awareness about effective diagnostic strategies for these aetiologies.

MELD-Na Accurately Predicts 6-Month Mortality in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis: Potential Trigger for Hospice Referral

GOAL

The goal of this study was to determine the accuracy of Model of End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) in predicting 6-month mortality for patients listed for liver transplantation on the United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS) waitlist.

BACKGROUND

End-stage liver disease patients underutilize hospice services despite significant morbidity and mortality associated with advanced liver disease. A well-known barrier to hospice referral is clinician uncertainty in identifying patients with an expected survival of <6 months, a requirement for a referral.

METHODS

Retrospective cross-sectional analysis was performed from UNOS data spanning February 27, 2002, to September 30, 2019. Inclusion criteria of patients aged 18 years and above, diagnosis of cirrhosis, liver transplant eligible, and listed in the UNOS database. Exclusion criteria included fulminant hepatic failure, prior history of liver transplantation, diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma, receipt of liver transplant in <180 days, or removal from waiting list <180 days for a reason other than death.

MEASUREMENT

Mortality by 180 days.

RESULTS

Of the 93,157 patients that met inclusion criteria, MELD-Na was calculated for all patients with sodium, total bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine available (N=79,611). The c -statistic with 95% confidence interval for MELD-Na for the predicted 6-month mortality was 0.83 (0.827-0.835). Mean MELD-Na of 28.2 was associated with ≤50% 6-month survival.

CONCLUSION

MELD-Na is an objective, quick measure that can aid providers in identifying patients with increased 6-month mortality in time-constrained settings, and a score of 28 can trigger the discussion for hospice as a means of improving value-based health care.

Long-term outcomes of resection versus transplantation for neuroendocrine liver metastases meeting the Milan criteria

Liver resection (LR) is considered the treatment of choice for resectable neuroendocrine liver metastases (NELM), while liver transplantation (LT) is currently reserved for highly selected unresectable patients. We retrospectively analyzed data from consecutive patients undergoing either curative resection or transplantation for liver-only NELM meeting Milan criteria at a single center between 1984 and 2019. Patients who fit Milan criteria were 48 in the transplantation group and 56 in the resection group. After a median follow-up of 158 months for the transplantation group and 126 for the resection group, the 10-year survival rate was 93% for transplantation and 75% for resection (p = .007). The 10-year disease-free survival rate was 52% for transplantation and 18% for resection (p < .001). Transplantation was associated with improved survival at univariate analysis. The median disease-free interval between surgery and recurrence was 78 months for transplantation vs. 24 months for resection (p < .001). The transplantation group had more multisite recurrences (12/25, 48% vs. 5/42, 12% in the resection group, p = .001), while most recurrences in the resection group were intra-hepatic (37/42, 88%, versus 2/25, 8% in the transplantation group). In conclusion, LT was associated with improved survival outcomes in NELM meeting the Milan criteria compared with LR.

Repeated Transarterial Radioembolization Adverse Event and Hepatotoxicity Profile in Cirrhotic Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Single-Center Experience

Purpose

The study aimed to evaluate the adverse event (AE) and hepatotoxicity profile, including radioembolization induced liver disease (REILD), following repeat radioembolization (RE) to the same or overlapping vascular territories in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and limited functional hepatic reserve/cirrhosis.

Methods

Nine patients (seven male and two female; median age, 66 years) with cirrhosis and HCC who underwent repeat RE (cycle 1 and cycle 2) between January 2012 and August 2019 were included. Patient demographics, clinical and treatment history, and pertinent laboratory values were recorded at baseline and post-treatment time points over a period of four months. Post-RE AE/hepatotoxicity was assessed, organized by type and frequency, and graded by severity according to the National Cancer Institute common terminology criteria for adverse events, version 5.0 (CTCAE v5.0). To assess rudimentary comparisons for post-RE hepatotoxicity vs. factors of interest, Spearman's rank correlation/rho was calculated, and all relevant plots were constructed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed along with associated median survival time. All statistical analyses were performed with Stata v16.1.

Results

Following cycle 1, 22 objective AE were identified according to CTCAE v.5 (17 grade I, four grade II, and one grade III), with grade I, II, and III AE experienced by 78%, 33%, and 11% of patients, respectively. Following cycle 2, 19 objective AE were identified according to CTCAE v.5 (11 grade I, seven grade II, and one grade III), with grade I, II, and III AE experienced by 89%, 56%, and 11% of patients, respectively. A single patient developed REILD after cycle 1, which progressed to fatal REILD following cycle 2. Following cycle 2, an additional patient advanced from less severe hepatotoxicity to REILD. Following cycle 2, positive correlations between the higher model for end-stage liver disease (MELD; rho=0.70) and Child-Pugh (rho=0.74) scores and degree of post-RE hepatotoxicity/REILD appear to emerge. Post-repeat RE median overall survival was 12.5 months.

Conclusion

Post-RE hepatotoxicity following repeat RE to the same or overlapping vascular territories in patients with limited functional hepatic reserve/cirrhosis is a common occurrence with variable severity ranging from transient laboratory derangement to fatal REILD. Lack of a consensus REILD definition and grading scale results in non-uniform reporting of incidence as well as clinical and laboratory features of the disease process. Strides aimed at improving clinical characterization, forming a more complete diagnostic definition, and establishing a uniform grading system with respect to REILD are of particular importance and would ultimately improve repeat RE patient selection and risk management. 

Pediatric Wilson disease presenting as acute liver failure: Prognostic indices

BACKGROUND

Acute liver failure (ALF) can be a primary presentation of Wilson disease (WD). Mortality rates are high in WD with ALF (WDALF). Predictions of mortality in WDALF vary by model and are sometimes contradictory, perhaps because few patients are studied or WD diagnoses are questionable.

AIM

To determine the outcomes among well-documented WDALF patients and assess mortality model performance in this cohort.

METHODS

We reviewed the medical records of our pediatric WDALF patients (n = 41 over 6-years-old, single-center retrospective study) and compared seven prognostic models (King’s College Hospital Criteria, model for end-stage liver disease/pediatric end-stage liver disease scoring systems, Liver Injury Unit [LIU] using prothrombin time [PT] or international normalized ratio [INR], admission LIU using PT or INR, and Devarbhavi model) with one another.

RESULTS

Among the 41 Han Chinese patients with ALF, WD was established by demonstrating ATP7B variants in 36. In 5 others, Kayser-Fleischer rings and Coombs-negative hemolytic anemia permitted diagnosis. Three died during hospitalization and three underwent liver transplantation (LT) within 1 mo of presentation and survived (7.3% each); 35 (85.4%) survived without LT when given enteral D-penicillamine and zinc-salt therapy with or without urgent plasmapheresis. Parameters significantly correlated with mortality included encephalopathy, coagulopathy, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase activity, bilirubin, ammonia, and serum sodium levels. Area under the receiver operating curves varied among seven prognostic models from 0.981 to 0.748 with positive predictive values from 0.214 to 0.429.

CONCLUSION

WDALF children can survive and recover without LT when given D-penicillamine and Zn with or without plasmapheresis, even after enlisting for LT.

Evaluation and selection of the liver transplant candidate: updates on a dynamic and evolving process

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Although conceptually unchanged, the evaluation and selection of the liver transplant candidate has seen significant recent advances. Expanding criteria for transplant candidacy, improved diagnostics for risk stratification and advances in prognostic models have paralleled recent changes in allocation and distribution that require us to revisit core concepts of candidate evaluation and selection while recognizing its now dynamic and continuous nature.

RECENT FINDINGS

The liver transplant evaluation revolves around three interrelated themes: candidate selection, donor selection and transplant outcome. Introduction of dynamic frailty indices, bariatric surgery at the time of liver transplant in obese patients and improved therapies and prognostic tools for hepatobiliary malignancy have transformed candidate selection. Advances in hypothermic organ preservation have improved outcomes in marginal donor organs. Combined with expansion of hepatitis C virus positive and split donor organs, donor selection has become an integral part of candidate evaluation. In addition, with liver transplant for acute alcohol-related hepatitis now widely performed and increasing recognition of acute-on-chronic liver failure, selection of critically ill patients is refining tools to balance futility versus utility.

SUMMARY

Advances in liver transplant candidate evaluation continue to transform the evaluation process and require continued incorporation into our clinical practice amidst a dynamic backdrop of demographic and policy changes.

A 2020 update on liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most frequent liver tumor and is associated with chronic liver disease in 90% of cases. In selected cases, liver transplantation represents an effective therapy with excellent overall survival.

AREA COVERED

Since the introduction of Milan criteria in 1996, numerous alternative selection systems to LT for HCC patients have been proposed. Debate remains about how best to select HCC patients for transplant and how to prioritize them on the waiting list.

EXPERT OPINION

The selection of the best scoring system to propose in the context of LT for HCC is far to be identified. In this review, we analyze and categorize the various selection systems, assessing their roles in the different decisional phases.

T2 Hepatocellular Carcinoma Exception Policies That Prolong Waiting Time Improve the Use of Evidence-based Treatment Practices

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background.

A United Network for Organ Sharing policy change in 2015 created a 6-mo delay in the receipt of T2 hepatocellular carcinoma exception points. It was hypothesized that the policy changed locoregional therapy (LRT) practices and explant findings because of longer expected waiting time.

Methods.

Patients transplanted with a first T2 hepatocellular carcinoma exception application between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2014 (prepolicy; N = 6562), and those between August 10, 2015 and December 2, 2019 (postpolicy; N = 2345), were descriptively compared using data from United Network for Organ Sharing.

Results.

Median time from first application to transplantation was more homogenous across the US postpolicy, due to greater absolute increases in Regions 3, 6, 10, and 11 (>120 d). During waitlisting, postpolicy candidates received more LRT overall (P < 0.001), with more notable increases in previously short-wait regions. Postpolicy explants were overall more likely to have ≥1 tumor with complete necrosis (23.9 versus 18.4%; P < 0.001) and less likely have ≥1 tumor with no necrosis (32.6% versus 38.5%; P < 0.001). Significant geographic variability in explant treatment response was observed prepolicy with recipients in previously short-wait regions having more frequent tumor viability at transplant. Postpolicy, there were no differences in the prevalence of recipients with ≥1 tumor with 100% or 0% necrosis across regions (P = 0.9 and 0.2, respectively).

Conclusions.

The 2015 T2 exception policy has led to reduced geographic variability in the use of pretransplant LRT and in less frequent tumor viability on explant for recipients in previously short-waiting times.

Basic principles of liver allocation and development over the years

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Prior to the enactment of the National Organ Transplant Act in 1984, there was no organized system to allocate donor organs in the United States. The process of liver allocation has come a long way since then, including the development and implementation of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease, which is an objective estimate of risk of mortality among candidates awaiting liver transplantation.

RECENT FINDINGS

The Liver Transplant Community is constantly working to optimize the distribution and allocation of scare organs, which is essential to promote equitable access to a life-saving procedure in the setting of clinical advances in the treatment of liver disease. Over the past 17 years, many changes have been made. Most recently, liver distribution changed such that deceased donor livers will be distributed based on units established by geographic circles around a donor hospital rather than the current policy, which uses donor service areas as the unit of distribution. In addition, a National Liver Review Board was created to standardize the process of determining liver transplant priority for candidates with exceptional medical conditions. The aim of these changes is to allocate and distribute organs in an efficient and equitable fashion.

SUMMARY

The current review provides a historical perspective of liver allocation and the changing landscape in the United States.

IMPACT OF MELD SODIUM ON LIVER TRANSPLANTATION WAITING LIST

Background:

Serum sodium was incorporated to MELD score for the allocation of liver transplantation In the USA in 2016. Hyponatremia significantly increased the efficacy of the score to predict mortality on the waiting list. Such modification was not adopted in Brazil.

Aim:

To carry out a simulation using MELD-Na as waiting list ordering criteria in the state of Paraná and to compare to the list ordered according to MELD score.

Methods:

The study used data of 122 patients waiting for hepatic transplantation and listed at Parana´s Transplantation Central. Two classificatory lists were set up, one with MELD, the current qualifying criteria, and another with MELD-Na. We analyzed the changes on classification comparing these two lists.

Results:

Among all patients, 95.1% of the participants changed position, 30.3% showed improvement, 64.8% presented worsening and 4.9% maintained their position. There were 19 patients with hyponatremia, of whom 94.7% presented a change of position, and in all of them there was an improvement of position. One hundred and one patients presented sodium within the normal range and 95% of them presented a change of position: Improved placement was observed in 18.8%, and worsened placement in 76.2%. Two patients presented hypernatremia and changed their position, both worsening the placement. There was a significant different behavior on waiting list according to sodium serum level when MELD-Na was applied.

Conclusion:

The inclusion of serum sodium caused a great impact in the classification, bringing benefit to patients with hyponatremia.

Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score, MELD Score and MELD-Na Score as Predictors of Short-Term Mortality among Patients with End-Stage Liver Disease in Northern India

Background and Objectives

Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) scores are used for predicting disease severity and mortality among patients with end-stage liver disease. However, data regarding their usefulness in predicting the short-term outcome of end-stage liver disease are not available in India. This prospective study compared the CTP score, MELD score and MELD-Na score as predictors of short-term outcome among patients with end-stage liver disease.

Methods

CTP, MELD and MELD-Na scores were determined in 171 patients with end-stage liver disease at a tertiary healthcare centre in India at the time of admission, and the concordance (C-) statistics of the three scores for 3-month mortality were assessed and compared. The aetiology of end-stage liver disease and the clinical presentation were determined.

Results

The CTP score, MELD score and MELD-Na score on day 1 were significantly higher among non-survivors than among survivors (p < 0.0001 each). The C-statistic for 3-month mortality for the CTP score was 0.93 (p < 0.0001), that for the MELD score was 0.86 (p < 0.0001) and that for the MELD-Na score was 0.83 (p < 0.0001). The C-statistics of these scores differed significantly for 3-month mortality, and the CTP score was better than the MELD (p < 0.0001) and MELD-Na (p < 0.0001) scores in predicting 3-month mortality.

Conclusions

The CTP, MELD and MELD-Na scores were very good predictors of mortality at 3 months among patients with end-stage liver disease. The CTP score was superior to the MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting 3-month mortality.

Dual-source dual-energy CT in the evaluation of hepatic fractional extracellular space in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

One of the main features of liver fibrosis is the expansion of the interstitial space. All water-soluble CT contrast agents remain confined in the vascular and interstitial space constituting the fractional extracellular space (fECS). Indirect measure of its expansion can be quantified during equilibrium phase with CT. The goal of this prospective study was to assess the feasibility of dual-energy CT (DECT) with iodine quantification at equilibrium phase in the evaluation of significant fibrosis or cirrhosis.

METHODS

Thirty-eight cirrhotic patients (according to Child-Pugh and MELD scores), scheduled for liver CT, were enrolled in the study group. Twenty-four patients undergoing CT urography with a 10-min excretory phase were included in the control group. fECS was calculated as the ratio of the iodine concentration of liver parenchyma to that of the aorta, multiplied by 1 minus hematocrit.

RESULTS

Final study and control group were, respectively, composed of 22 and 20 patients. Mean hepatic fECS value was statistically greater in study group (P < 0.05). Positive correlation was observed between hepatic fECS value and MELD score (r = 0.64, P < 0.05). Analysis of variance showed statistical differences between control group and the Child-Pugh grades and between Child-Pugh A and B patients and Child-Pugh C patients (P < 0.05). ROC curves analysis yielded an optimum fECS cutoff value of 26.3% for differentiation of control group and cirrhotic patients (AUC 0.88; 86% sensitivity, 85% specificity).

CONCLUSIONS

Dual-source DECT is a feasible, noninvasive method for the assessment of significant liver fibrosis or cirrhosis.

Use of rapid Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) increases for liver transplant registrant prioritization after MELD-Na and Share 35, an evaluation using data from the United Network for Organ Sharing

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been successfully used to prioritize patients on the United States liver transplant waiting list since its adoption in 2002. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS)/Organ Procurement Transplantation Network (OPTN) allocation policy has evolved over the years, and notable recent changes include Share 35, inclusion of serum sodium in the MELD score, and a ‘delay and cap’ policy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. We explored the potential of a registrant’s change in 30-day MELD scores (ΔMELD₃₀) to improve allocation both before and after these policy changes. Current MELD and ΔMELD₃₀ were evaluated using cause-specific hazards models for waitlist dropout based on US liver transplant registrants added to the waitlist between 06/30/2003 and 6/30/2013. Two composite scores were constructed and then evaluated on UNOS data spanning the current policy era (01/02/2016 to 09/07/2018). Predictive accuracy was evaluated using the C-index for model discrimination and by comparing observed and predicted waitlist dropout probabilities for model calibration. After the change to MELD-Na, increased dropout associated with ΔMELD₃₀ jumps is no longer evident at MELD scores below 30. However, the adoption of Share 35 has potentially resulted in discrepancies in waitlist dropout for patients with sharp MELD increases at higher MELD scores. Use of the ΔMELD₃₀ to add additional points or serve as a potential tiebreaker for patients with rapid deterioration may extend the benefit of Share 35 to better include those in most critical need.

Copeptin – a biomarker of short-term mortality risk (7 days) in patients with end-stage liver disease

Background

For many patients with end-stage liver disease, liver transplantation represents the only curative therapy. Transplant recipients are scored and ranked using the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD/MELD-Na). Circulatory impairment is known to deteriorate outcomes; however, it is not incorporated into the current allocation system’s score. The aim of our study is to analyze the predictive value of copeptin as a biomarker of circulatory impairment and increased short-term mortality risk in patients with end-stage liver disease.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective observational study of 615 patients with end-stage liver disease. Patients were recruited using assessments performed during the evaluation process for liver transplantation. Copeptin values were analyzed in comparison to MELD-Na, interleukin 6 (IL-6), and C-reactive protein (CRP).

Results

Elevated levels of copeptin, IL-6 and CRP, as well as high MELD-Na scores, were significantly correlated with mortality. In a comparison of copeptin-tertiles, patients in group T3 (16.3 pmol/L or more) showed a significantly higher mortality risk (hazard ratio 11.2, p < 0.001). After adjusting for MELD-Na, copeptin remains an independent predictor of mortality. It shows its greatest prognostic strength in short-term mortality, where it performs comparable to MELD-Na (AUROC for 7 day-mortality, 0.941/0.939; p = 0.981) and shows an additional predictive value to MELD-Na for short-term mortality (7 days, p: 0.046; 30 days, p: 0.006).

Conclusions

Copeptin presents a valuable individual biomarker in detecting patients at risk for short-term mortality. Further studies should be performed to confirm our findings.

Liver Allocation Policies in the USA: Past, Present, and the Future

Identifying the optimal allocation policy with regard to hepatocellular carcinoma has been a persistent and evolving challenge. The current criteria for LT for HCC endorsed by the United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS) are based on the Milan Criteria: a solitary tumor < 5 cm, or maximum of three tumors ≤ 3 cm each, without vascular invasion or evidence of extrahepatic spread. Contraindications to HCC exception points include: stage 1 HCC, ruptured HCC, extrahepatic HCC, and main portal or hepatic vein HCC invasion. Based upon projected waitlist dropout rates due to tumor growth, patients with HCC are assigned MELD standardized exception points. In addition to tumor size and number, AFP levels are an important predictor of recurrence of HCC following liver transplantation. Standardized exception points for HCC patients are not awarded to patients with AFP levels > 1000 ng/mL that do not decrease to < 500 ng/mL with treatment. Appeals for MELD exception points for patients with HCC vary widely between UNOS regions, with success of nonstandardized exception point appeals varying from 3.1 to 21% between regions. In an effort to make prioritization for HCC more consistent, a national liver review board (NLRB)is being convened that will focus on developing a national guidance for assessing common requests and addressing exception points, including for HCC.

Predictors of 1-month and 3-months Hospital Readmissions in Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Prospective Study in a Large Asian Cohort

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

Considered as a healthcare quality indicator, hospital readmissions in decompensated cirrhosis predispose the patients and the society to physical, social and economic distresses. Few studies involving North American cohorts have identified different predictors. The aim of this study was to determine and validate the predictors of 1-month and 3-months readmission in an Asian cohort.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We prospectively studied 281 hospitalised patients with decompensated cirrhosis at a large tertiary care public hospital in India between August 2014 and August 2016 and followed them for 3 months. Data regarding demographic, laboratory and disease related risk factors were compiled. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine predictors of readmission at 1-month and 3-months and receiver operating curves (ROC) for significant predictors to obtain the best cut-offs.

RESULTS

1-month and 3-months readmission rates in our study were 27.8% and 42.3%, respectively. Model for End stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at discharge (OR:1.24, p < 0.001) and serum sodium (OR:0.94, p-0.039) independently predicted 1-month and MELD score (OR:1.11, p-0.003), serum sodium (OR:0.94, p-0.027) and male gender (OR:2.19, p-0.008) independently predicted 3-months readmissions. Neither aetiology nor complications of cirrhosis emerged as risk factors. MELD score >14 at discharge and serum sodium < 133 mEq/L best predicted readmissions; MELD score being a better predictor than serum sodium (p - 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

High rates of early and late readmissions were found in our study. Further, this study validated readmission predictors in Asian patients. Structured interventions targeting this risk factors may diminish readmissions in decompensated cirrhosis.

Effects of Allocating Livers for Transplantation Based on Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium Scores on Patient Outcomes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease and Sodium (MELD-Na) score was introduced for liver allocation in January 2016. We evaluated the effects of liver allocation, based on MELD-Na score, on waitlist and post-transplantation outcomes.

METHODS

We examined 2 patient groups from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry; the MELD-period group was composed of patients who were registered as transplant candidates from June 18, 2013 through January 10, 2016 (n = 18,850) and the MELD-Na period group was composed of patients who were registered from January 11, 2016 through September 30, 2017 (n = 14,512). We compared waitlist and post-transplantation outcomes and association with serum sodium concentrations between groups.

RESULTS

Mortality within 90 days on the liver waitlist decreased (hazard ratio [HR] 0.738, P < .001) and transplantation probability increased significantly (HR 1.217, P < .001) in the MELD-Na period. Although mild, moderate, and severe hyponatremia (130-134, 125-129, and <125 mmol/L) were independent risk factors for waitlist mortality in the MELD period (HR 1.354, 1.762, and 2.656; P < .001, P < .001, and P < .001, respectively) compared with the reference standard (135-145 mmol/L), these adverse outcomes were decreased in the MELD-Na period (HR 1.092, 1.271 and 1.374; P = .27, P = .018, and P = .037, respectively). The adjusted survival benefit of transplant recipients vs patients placed on the waitlist in the same score categories was definitive for patients with MELD-Na scores of 21-23 in the MELD-Na era (HR 0.336, P < .001) compared with MELD scores of 15-17 in the MELD era (HR 0.365, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Liver allocation based on MELD-Na score successfully improved waitlist outcomes and provided significant benefit to hyponatremic patients. Given the discrepancy in transplantation survival benefit, the current rules for liver allocation might require revision.

Hypoalbuminemia is Associated With Significantly Higher Liver Transplant Waitlist Mortality and Lower Probability of Receiving Liver Transplant

GOALS

To evaluate the predictive value of hypoalbuminemia on liver transplant (LT) waitlist survival and probability of receiving LT among adults with end-stage liver disease (ESLD).

BACKGROUND

Growing evidence reports on the negative prognostic value of hypoalbuminemia among ESLD patients awaiting LT.

METHODS

Using 2003 to 2015 United Network for Organ Sharing data, we retrospectively evaluated the impact of mild-moderate (2.5 to 3.4 g/dL) and severe hypoalbuminemia (<2.5 g/dL) on waitlist survival and probability of receiving LT among US adults awaiting LT. Outcomes were stratified by liver disease etiology and presence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and evaluated using Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Among 128,450 adults listed for LT, 27.1% had normal albumin (≥3.5 g/dL), 53.7% mild-moderate hypoalbuminemia (2.5 to 3.4 g/dL), and 19.2% severe hypoalbuminemia (<2.5 g/dL) at time of listing. Patients with severe hypoalbuminemia had significantly lower 1-year waitlist survival compared with those with normal albumin (80.4% vs. 95.2%; P<0.001). On multivariate regression, severity of hypoalbuminemia was associated with increasing waitlist mortality, even after correcting for model for end stage liver disease-sodium and HCC [albumin, 2.5 to 3.4 g/dL: hazard ratio (HR), 1.81; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.62-2.01; P<0.001; <2.5 g/dL: HR, 2.46; 95% CI, 2.20-2.76; P<0.001]. Patients with hypoalbuminemia had significantly lower probability of receiving LT compared with those with normal albumin (albumin <2.5 g/dL: HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.78-0.83; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

ESLD patients with hypoalbuminemia have lower probability of LT despite significantly higher waitlist mortality compared with patients with normal albumin. If validated by further studies, incorporation of albumin into prognostication systems may improve the performance of US donor organ allocation systems.

Identification and Validation of the Predictive Capacity of Risk Factors and Models in Liver Transplantation Over Time

Background

Outcome after liver transplantation (LT) is determined by donor, transplant and recipient risk factors. These factors may have different impact on either patient or graft survival (outcome type). In the literature, there is wide variation in the use of outcome types and points in time (short term or long term). Objective of this study is to analyze the predictive capacity of risk factors and risk models in LT and how they vary over time and per outcome type.

Methods

All LTs performed in the Netherlands from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2011, were analyzed with multivariate analyses at 3-month, 1-year, and 5-year for patient and (non-)death-censored graft survival. The predictive capacity of the investigated risk models was compared with concordance indices.

Results

Recipient age, model for end-stage liver disease sodium, ventilatory support, diabetes mellitus, hepatocellular carcinoma, previous malignancy, hepatitis C virus antibody, hepatitis B virus antibody, perfusion fluid, and Eurotransplant donor risk index (ET-DRI) had significant impact on outcome (graft or patient survival) at 1 or multiple points in time. Significant factors at 3-month patient survival (recipient age, model for end-stage liver disease sodium, ventilatory support) were used to compose a concept model. This model, had a higher c-index than the balance-of-risk score, DRI, ET-DRI, donor-recipient model and simplified recipient risk index for long-term patient and non-death-censored graft survival.

Conclusions

In this study, the effects of recipient risk factors and models on different outcome types and time points were shown. Short-term patient survival mainly depends on recipient risk factors, long-term graft survival on donor risk factors and is more difficult to predict. Next to the concept model, the donor-recipient model has a higher predictive capacity to other risk models for (long-term) patient and non-death-censored graft survival. The DRI and ET-DRI best predicted death-censored graft survival. Knowledge about risk factors and models is critical when using these for waitlist management and/or help in organ allocation and decision-making.

Pretransplant predictors of early mortality in adult recipients of liver transplantation in the MELD-Na Era

AIMS

To identify pretransplant predictors of early mortality (90 days after transplantation) and evaluate their discriminating capacity in adult liver transplant recipients (LTR).

DESIGN

An observational, retrospective, nested cases-controls study from a consecutive cohort of LTRs was carried out.

SETTING

University hospital.

PATIENTS

All consecutive LTR between January 2003 and December 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Patients with acute liver failure, previous graft dysfunction, simultaneous multiple organ transplantation, non-heart beating donors, and those needing urgent retransplantation during the study period were excluded. The analysis comprised 471 patients.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST

Pretransplant characteristics were the main variables of interest. The LTR were grouped according to the dependent variable (early mortality). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify predictors of early mortality. The discriminating capacity of the models obtained was evaluated by comparing ROC curves (models versus MELD-Na).

RESULTS

The MELD-Na score (OR = 1.069, 95% CI = 1.014-1.127), age > 60 years (OR = 2.479, 95% CI = 1.226-5.015), and LTR height < 163cm (OR = 4.092, 95% CI = 2.115-7.917) were identified as independent predictors of early mortality. The cause of transplantation (hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis) was identified as a confounding factor.

CONCLUSIONS

In LTR due to decompensated cirrhosis, the MELD-Na score, age > 60 years, and height < 163cm are independent predictors of early mortality. These factors provide a better classification model than the MELD-Na score for early post-transplant mortality.

New paradigms for organ allocation and distribution in liver transplantation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The 'Final Rule,' issued by the Health Resources and Service Administration in 2000, mandated that liver allocation policy should be based on disease severity and probability of death, and - among other factors - should be independent of a candidate's residence or listing. As a result, the Organ Procurement Transplantation Network/United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) has explored policy changes addressing geographic disparities without compromising outcomes.

RECENT FINDINGS

Major paradigm shifts are underway in U.S. liver allocation policy. New hepatocellular carcinoma exception policy incorporates tumor characteristics associated with posttransplantation outcomes, whereas a National Liver Review Board will promote a standardized process for awarding exception points. Meanwhile, following extensive debate, new allocation policy aims to reduce geographic disparity by broadening sharing to the UNOS region and 150-mile circle around the donor hospital for liver transplant candidates with a calculated model for end-stage liver disease score at least 32. Unnecessary organ travel will be reduced by granting 3 'proximity points' to candidates within the same donation service area (DSA) as a liver donor or within 150 nautical miles of the donor hospital, regardless of DSA or UNOS region.

SUMMARY

This review provides an evaluation of major policy changes in liver allocation from 2016 to 2018.

Postoperative Meld-Lactate and Isolated Lactate Values As Outcome Predictors Following Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

The Model for End Stage Liver (MELD) score is validated to predict pretransplant mortality. However, as a predictor of postoperative outcomes, its utility has proven inconsistent. Recently developed MELD-Lactate models better predict 30-day survival as compared with the MELD and MELD-Sodium scores. We compared the MELD-Lactate, original MELD, and MELD-Sodium formulae and the initial postoperative lactate as predictors of 30-day and in-hospital mortality following liver transplantation.Adult patients (n = 989) undergoing orthotopic liver transplant between 2002 to 2013 were included. In addition to the previous models, the first postoperative lactate value and a newly derived Mount Sinai MELD-Lactate score and associated c-statistics were compared.The Mount Sinai MELD-Lactate model yielded the highest c-statistic value (0.749), followed by the original MELD-Lactate (0.740), initial lactate value (0.729), postoperative MELD (0.653), and MELD-Sodium (0.641) models in predicting survival at 30 days following liver transplantation. For in-hospital mortality, the original MELD-Lactate model had slightly higher c-statistic (0.739) compared with the Mount Sinai MELD-Lactate model (0.734). Despite the distribution differences in the MELD-Lactate models, the model validation results, both from cross-validation and bootstrap methods, were similar.Postoperative MELD-Lactate and isolated postoperative lactate values were moderately predictive of 30-day and in-hospital mortality following liver transplantation in this patient cohort.

Early hospital readmission in decompensated cirrhosis: Incidence, impact on mortality, and predictive factors

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The early hospital readmission of patients with decompensated cirrhosis is a current problem. A study is presented on the incidence, the impact on mortality, and the predictive factors of early hospital readmission.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

On the study included 112 cirrhotic patients, discharged after some decompensation between January 2013 and May 2014. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of early readmission and mortality.

RESULTS

The early readmission rate was 29.5%. The predictive factors were male gender (OR: 2.81; 95% CI: 1.07-7.35), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium score ≥15 (OR: 3.79; 95% CI 1.48-9.64), and Charlson index ≥7 (OR: 4.34, 95% CI 1.65-11.4). This model enabled patients to be classified into low or high risk of early readmissions (13.6% vs. 52.2%). The mortality rate was significantly higher among patients with early readmission (73% vs. 35%) (p<.0001). After adjusting for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium score, Charlson index, dependence in activities of daily living, educational status, and number of medications on discharge, the early readmission was independently associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Early hospital readmission is common, and is independently associated with mortality. Male gender, MELD-Na ≥15, and Charlson index ≥7 are predictors of early readmission. These results could be used to develop future strategies to reduce early readmission.

Retransplantation in Late Hepatic Artery Thrombosis: Graft Access and Transplant Outcome

BACKGROUND

Definitive treatment for late hepatic artery thrombosis (L-HAT) is retransplantation (re-LT); however, the L-HAT-associated disease burden is poorly represented in allocation models.

METHODS

Graft access and transplant outcome of the re-LT experience between 2005 and 2016 was reviewed with specific focus on the L-HAT cohort in this single-center retrospective study.

RESULTS

Ninety-nine (5.7%) of 1725 liver transplantations were re-LT with HAT as the main indication (n = 43; 43%) distributed into early (n = 25) and late (n = 18) episodes. Model for end-stage liver disease as well as United Kingdom model for end-stage liver disease did not accurately reflect high disease burden of graft failure associated infections such as hepatic abscesses and biliary sepsis in L-HAT. Hence, re-LT candidates with L-HAT received low prioritization and waited longest until the allocation of an acceptable graft (median, 103 days; interquartile range, 28-291 days), allowing for progression of biliary sepsis. Balance of risk score and 3-month mortality score prognosticated good transplant outcome in L-HAT but, contrary to the prediction, the factual 1-year patient survival after re-LT was significantly inferior in L-HAT compared to early HAT, early non-HAT and late non-HAT (65% vs 82%, 92% and 95%) which was mainly caused by sepsis and multiorgan failure driving 3-month mortality (28% vs 11%, 16% and 0%). Access to a second graft after a median waitlist time of 6 weeks achieved the best short- and long-term outcome in re-LT for L-HAT (3-month mortality, 13%; 1-year survival, 77%).

CONCLUSIONS

Inequity in graft access and peritransplant sepsis are fundamental obstacles for successful re-LT in L-HAT. Offering a graft for those in need at the best window of opportunity could facilitate earlier engrafting with improved outcomes.