Machine-learning algorithms for predicting results in liver transplantation: the problem of donor-recipient matching

Construction and evaluation of a liver cancer risk prediction model based on machine learning

BACKGROUND

Liver cancer is one of the most prevalent malignant tumors worldwide, and its early detection and treatment are crucial for enhancing patient survival rates and quality of life. However, the early symptoms of liver cancer are often not obvious, resulting in a late-stage diagnosis in many patients, which significantly reduces the effectiveness of treatment. Developing a highly targeted, widely applicable, and practical risk prediction model for liver cancer is crucial for enhancing the early diagnosis and long-term survival rates among affected individuals.

AIM

To develop a liver cancer risk prediction model by employing machine learning techniques, and subsequently assess its performance.

METHODS

In this study, a total of 550 patients were enrolled, with 190 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 195 cirrhosis patients serving as the training cohort, and 83 HCC and 82 cirrhosis patients forming the validation cohort. Logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression models were developed in the training cohort. Model performance was assessed in the validation cohort. Additionally, this study conducted a comparative evaluation of the diagnostic efficacy between the ASAP model and the model developed in this study using receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to determine the optimal predictive model for assessing liver cancer risk.

RESULTS

Six variables including age, white blood cell, red blood cell, platelet counts, alpha-fetoprotein and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II levels were used to develop LR, SVM, RF, and LASSO regression models. The RF model exhibited superior discrimination, and the area under curve of the training and validation sets was 0.969 and 0.858, respectively. These values significantly surpassed those of the LR (0.850 and 0.827), SVM (0.860 and 0.803), LASSO regression (0.845 and 0.831), and ASAP (0.866 and 0.813) models. Furthermore, calibration and DCA indicated that the RF model exhibited robust calibration and clinical validity.

CONCLUSION

The RF model demonstrated excellent prediction capabilities for HCC and can facilitate early diagnosis of HCC in clinical practice.

Posttransplant complications: molecular mechanisms and therapeutic interventions

Posttransplantation complications pose a major challenge to the long-term survival and quality of life of organ transplant recipients. These complications encompass immune-mediated complications, infectious complications, metabolic complications, and malignancies, with each type influenced by various risk factors and pathological mechanisms. The molecular mechanisms underlying posttransplantation complications involve a complex interplay of immunological, metabolic, and oncogenic processes, including innate and adaptive immune activation, immunosuppressant side effects, and viral reactivation. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the clinical features, risk factors, and molecular mechanisms of major posttransplantation complications. We systematically summarize the current understanding of the immunological basis of allograft rejection and graft-versus-host disease, the metabolic dysregulation associated with immunosuppressive agents, and the role of oncogenic viruses in posttransplantation malignancies. Furthermore, we discuss potential prevention and intervention strategies based on these mechanistic insights, highlighting the importance of optimizing immunosuppressive regimens, enhancing infection prophylaxis, and implementing targeted therapies. We also emphasize the need for future research to develop individualized complication control strategies under the guidance of precision medicine, ultimately improving the prognosis and quality of life of transplant recipients.

Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease. However, the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge. Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates. Traditionally, scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process. Nevertheless, the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence models.

AIM

To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT, comparing their per formance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines, we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database. Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year, age, or gender. Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English stu dies, review articles, case reports, conference papers, studies with missing data, or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.

RESULTS

Our search yielded a total of 64 articles, with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. Among the selected studies, 60.8% originated from the United States and China combined. Only one pediatric study met the criteria. Notably, 91% of the studies were published within the past five years. ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (ranging from 0.6 to 1) across all studies, surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems. Random forest exhibited superior predictive capa bilities for 90-d mortality following LT, sepsis, and acute kidney injury (AKI). In contrast, gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease, pneumonia, and AKI.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT, marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Developing machine learning models to predict primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the first 30 days after lung transplantation. Risk factors for the development of PGD include donor and recipient characteristics, but how multiple variables interact to impact the development of PGD and how clinicians should consider these in making decisions about donor acceptance remain unclear. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study to develop and evaluate machine learning pipelines to predict the development of PGD grade 3 within the first 72 hours of transplantation using donor and recipient variables that are known at the time of donor offer acceptance. Among 576 bilateral lung recipients, 173 (30%) developed PGD grade 3. The cohort underwent a 75% to 25% train-test split, and lasso regression was used to identify 11 variables for model development. A K-nearest neighbor's model showing the best calibration and performance with relatively small confidence intervals was selected as the final predictive model with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.65. Machine learning models can predict the risk for development of PGD grade 3 based on data available at the time of donor offer acceptance. This may improve donor-recipient matching and donor utilization in the future.

Liver Transplant in Patients with Hepatocarcinoma: Imaging Guidelines and Future Perspectives Using Artificial Intelligence

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common primary malignant hepatic tumor and occurs most often in the setting of chronic liver disease. Liver transplantation is a curative treatment option and is an ideal solution because it solves the chronic underlying liver disorder while removing the malignant lesion. However, due to organ shortages, this treatment can only be applied to carefully selected patients according to clinical guidelines. Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology with multiple applications in medicine with a predilection for domains that work with medical imaging, like radiology. With the help of these technologies, laborious tasks can be automated, and new lesion imaging criteria can be developed based on pixel-level analysis. Our objectives are to review the developing AI applications that could be implemented to better stratify liver transplant candidates. The papers analysed applied AI for liver segmentation, evaluation of steatosis, sarcopenia assessment, lesion detection, segmentation, and characterization. A liver transplant is an optimal treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the setting of chronic liver disease. Furthermore, AI could provide solutions for improving the management of liver transplant candidates to improve survival.

Kidney transplant in the next decade: Strategies, challenges and vision of the future

Although the results of kidney transplantation (KT) have improved substantially in recent years, a chronic and inexorable loss of grafts mainly due to the death of the patient and chronic dysfunction of the KT, continues to be observed. The objectives, thus, to optimize this situation in the next decade are fundamentally focused on minimizing the rate of kidney graft loss, improving patient survival, increasing the rate of organ procurement and its distribution, promoting research and training in health professionals and the development of scientific registries providing clinical and reliable information that allow us to optimize our clinical practice in the field of KT. With this perspective, this review will deep into: (1) strategies to avoid chronic dysfunction and graft loss in the medium and long term; (2) to prolong patient survival; (3) strategies to increase the donation, maintenance and allocation of organs; (4) promote clinical and basic research and training activity in KT; and (5) the analysis of the results in KT by optimizing and merging scientific registries.

Collaborative Platforms and Matchmaking Algorithms for Research and Education, Establishment, and Optimization of Consortia

Matchmaking has a great position in the rational allocation of resources in several fields, ranging from market operation to people's daily lives. Matchmakers have evolved through artificial intelligence technologies and are being introduced in numerous aspects of industry, research, and academia in solving decision issues, research innovation design, and building robust and efficient networks. The goal of this report is to describe the collaborative platforms and matchmaking algorithms for research and education, as well as the establishment and optimization of consortia.

Prädiktoren für erfolgreiche Lebertransplantationen und Risikofaktoren

Die Lebertransplantation ist die einzige kurative Therapieoption einer chronischen Leberinsuffizienz im Endstadium. Daneben stellen onkologische Lebererkrankungen wie das HCC eine weitere Indikation für die Lebertransplantation dar, ebenso wie das akute Leberversagen.

Seit der ersten erfolgreichen Lebertransplantation durch Professor Thomas E. Starzl im Jahr 1967 haben sich nicht nur die chirurgischen, immunologischen und anästhesiologischen Techniken und Möglichkeiten geändert, sondern auch die Indikationen und das Patientengut. Hinzu kommt, dass die Empfänger ein zunehmendes Lebensalter und damit einhergehend mehr Begleiterkrankungen aufweisen.

Die Zahl an Lebertransplantationen ist weltweit weiter ansteigend. Es benötigen aber mehr Menschen eine Lebertransplantation, als Organe zur Verfügung stehen. Dies liegt am zunehmenden Bedarf an Spenderorganen bei gleichzeitig weiter rückläufiger Zahl postmortaler Organspenden.

Diese Diskrepanz zwischen Spenderorganen und Empfängern kann nur zu einem kleinen Teil durch Split-Lebertransplantationen oder die Leberlebendspende kompensiert werden.

Um den Spenderpool zu erweitern, werden zunehmend auch marginale Organe, die nur die erweiterten Spenderkriterien („extended donor criteria [EDC]“) erfüllen, allokiert. In manchen Ländern zählen hierzu auch die sogenannten DCD-Organe (DCD: „donation after cardiac death“), d. h. Organe, die erst nach dem kardiozirkulatorischen Tod des Spenders entnommen werden.

Es ist bekannt, dass marginale Spenderorgane mit einem erhöhten Risiko für ein schlechteres Transplantat- und Patientenüberleben nach Lebertransplantation einhergehen.

Um die Qualität marginaler Spenderorgane zu verbessern, hat sich eine rasante Entwicklung der Techniken der Organkonservierung über die letzten Jahre gezeigt. Mit der maschinellen Organperfusion besteht beispielsweise die Möglichkeit, die Organqualität deutlich zu verbessern. Insgesamt haben sich die Risikokonstellationen von Spenderorgan und Transplantatempfänger deutlich geändert.

Aus diesem Grunde ist es von großer Bedeutung, spezifische Prädiktoren für eine erfolgreiche Lebertransplantation sowie die entsprechenden Risikofaktoren für einen schlechten postoperativen Verlauf zu kennen, um das bestmögliche Transplantat- und Patientenüberleben nach Lebertransplantation zu ermöglichen.

Diese Einflussfaktoren, inklusive möglicher Risiko-Scores, sollen hier ebenso wie die neuen technischen Möglichkeiten in der Lebertransplantation beleuchtet werden.

Are MELD and MELDNa Still Reliable Tools to Predict Mortality on the Liver Transplant Waiting List?

Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. Unfortunately, the scarcity of donor organs and the increasing pool of potential recipients limit access to this life-saving procedure. Allocation should account for medical and ethical factors, ensuring equal access to transplantation regardless of recipient's gender, race, religion, or income. Based on their short-term prognosis prediction, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD sodium (MELDNa) have been widely used to prioritize patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation resulting in a significant decrease in waiting list mortality/removal. Recent concern has been raised regarding the prognostic accuracy of MELD and MELDNa due, in part, to changes in recipients' profile such as body mass index, comorbidities, and general condition, including nutritional status and cause of liver disease, among others. This review aims to provide a comprehensive view of the current state of MELD and MELDNa advantages and limitations and promising alternatives. Finally, it will explore future options to increase the donor pool and improve donor-recipient matching.

Advancements of Artificial Intelligence in Liver-Associated Diseases and Surgery

Background and Objectives: The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) based technologies in medicine is progressing rapidly, but the majority of its real-world applications has not been implemented. The establishment of an accurate diagnosis with treatment has now transitioned into an artificial intelligence era, which has continued to provide an amplified understanding of liver cancer as a disease and helped to proceed better with the method of procurement. This article focuses on reviewing the AI in liver-associated diseases and surgical procedures, highlighting its development, use, and related counterparts. Materials and Methods: We searched for articles regarding AI in liver-related ailments and surgery, using the keywords (mentioned below) on PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, MEDLINE, and Cochrane Library. Choosing only the common studies suggested by these libraries, we segregated the matter based on disease. Finally, we compiled the essence of these articles under the various sub-headings. Results: After thorough review of articles, it was observed that there was a surge in the occurrence of liver-related surgeries, diagnoses, and treatments. Parallelly, advanced computer technologies governed by AI continue to prove their efficacy in the accurate screening, analysis, prediction, treatment, and recuperation of liver-related cases. Conclusions: The continual developments and high-order precision of AI is expanding its roots in all directions of applications. Despite being novel and lacking research, AI has shown its intrinsic worth for procedures in liver surgery while providing enhanced healing opportunities and personalized treatment for liver surgery patients.

Artificial intelligence and human liver allocation: Potential benefits and ethical implications

Since its implementation almost two decades ago, the urgency allocation policy has improved the survival of patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation worldwide. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score is widely used to predict waiting list mortality. Due to some limitations related to its use, there is an active investigation to develop other prognostic scores. Liver allocation (LA) entails complex decision-making, and grafts are occasionally not directed to the recipients who are more likely to survive. Prognostic scores have, thus far, failed to predict post-operatory survival. Furthermore, the increasing use of marginal donors is associated with worse outcomes. Adequate donor-recipient pairing could help avoid retransplantation or futile procedures and reduce postoperative complications, mortality, hospitalization time, and costs. Artificial intelligence has applications in several medical fields. Machine learning algorithms (MLAs) use large amounts of data to detect unforeseen patterns and complex interactions between variables. Artificial neural networks and decision trees were the most common forms of MLA tested on LA. Some researchers have shown them to be superior for predicting waiting list mortality and graft failure than conventional statistical methods. These promising techniques are increasingly being considered for implementation.

Artificial Intelligence in hepatology, liver surgery and transplantation: Emerging applications and frontiers of research

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and augmented realities into the medical field is being attempted by various researchers across the globe. As a matter of fact, most of the advanced technologies utilized by medical providers today have been borrowed and extrapolated from other industries. The introduction of AI into the field of hepatology and liver surgery is relatively a recent phenomenon. The purpose of this narrative review is to highlight the different AI concepts which are currently being tried to improve the care of patients with liver diseases. We end with summarizing emerging trends and major challenges in the future development of AI in hepatology and liver surgery.

Identifying discriminative features for diagnosis of Kashin-Beck disease among adolescents

INTRODUCTION

Diagnosing Kashin-Beck disease (KBD) involves damages to multiple joints and carries variable clinical symptoms, posing great challenge to the diagnosis of KBD for clinical practitioners. However, it is still unclear which clinical features of KBD are more informative for the diagnosis of Kashin-Beck disease among adolescent.

METHODS

We first manually extracted 26 possible features including clinical manifestations, and pathological changes of X-ray images from 400 KBD and 400 non-KBD adolescents. With such features, we performed four classification methods, i.e., random forest algorithms (RFA), artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector machines (SVMs) and linear regression (LR) with four feature selection methods, i.e., RFA, minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), support vector machine recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) and Relief. The performance of diagnosis of KBD with respect to different classification models were evaluated by sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Our results demonstrated that the 10 out of 26 discriminative features were displayed more powerful performance, regardless of the chosen of classification models and feature selection methods. These ten discriminative features were distal end of phalanges alterations, metaphysis alterations and carpals alterations and clinical manifestations of ankle joint movement limitation, enlarged finger joints, flexion of the distal part of fingers, elbow joint movement limitation, squatting limitation, deformed finger joints, wrist joint movement limitation.

CONCLUSIONS

The selected ten discriminative features could provide a fast, effective diagnostic standard for KBD adolescents.