A Clinical Model for the Early Diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department

Prospective Validation of a Prediction Model for the Diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis

Importance

While most patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) fulfill diagnostic criteria with characteristic abdominal pain and serum lipase levels of at least 3 times the upper limit of normal (reference range) at presentation, early imaging is often used for confirmation. A prior prediction model and corresponding point-based score were developed using nonimaging parameters to diagnose AP in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED).

Objective

To evaluate the performance of the prediction model to diagnose AP in a prospective patient cohort.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective diagnostic study included consecutive adult patients presenting to the ED between January 1, 2020, and March 9, 2021, at 2 large academic medical centers in the northeastern US with serum lipase levels at least 3 times the upper limit of normal. Patients transferred from outside institutions or with malignant disease and established intra-abdominal metastases, acute trauma, or altered mentation were excluded. Data were analyzed from October 15 to October 23, 2023.

Exposures

Participants were assigned scores for initial serum lipase level, number of prior AP episodes, prior cholelithiasis, abdominal surgery within 2 months, presence of epigastric pain, pain of worsening severity, duration from pain onset to presentation, and pain level at ED presentation.

Main Outcome and Measures

A final diagnosis of AP, established by expert review of hospitalization records.

Results

Prospective scores in 349 participants (mean [SD] age, 53.0 [18.8] years; 184 women [52.7%]; 66 Black [18.9%]; 199 White [57.0%]) demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.91. A score of at least 6 points achieved highest accuracy (F score, 82.0), corresponding to a sensitivity of 81.5%, specificity of 85.9%, positive predictive value of 82.6%, and negative predictive value of 85.1% for AP diagnosis. Early computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging was performed more often in participants predicted to have AP (116 of 155 [74.8%] with a score ≥6 vs 111 of 194 [57.2%] with a score <6; P < .001). Early imaging revealed an alternative diagnosis in 8 of 116 participants (6.9%) with scores of at least 6 points, 1 of 93 (1.1%) with scores of at least 7 points, and 1 of 73 (1.4%) with scores of at least 8 points.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this multicenter diagnostic study, the prediction model demonstrated excellent AP diagnostic accuracy. Its application may be used to avoid unnecessary confirmatory imaging.

Clinical Prediction Score for Early Diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis in Emergency Departments

Background

In Thailand, most primary care hospitals cannot measure serum lipase and amylase; no 24 hours computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging available, and no on-call gastroenterologists. Thus, acute pancreatitis cannot be diagnosed based on the established diagnostic criteria that require this information. The resultant delayed management increases morbidity and mortality. This study was performed to create a clinical prediction score for early diagnosis of acute pancreatitis in emergency departments without requiring a computed tomography scan or laboratory measurement to assist in the initial diagnosis, treatment, or referral.

Methods

Patients with suspected acute pancreatitis who had available data regarding lipase and amylase measurements and visited the emergency department from June 2019 to August 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The baseline predictive factors were compared between patients with and without acute pancreatitis according to the 2012 revised Atlanta classification. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore potential predictive factors and develop a clinical prediction score for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis.

Results

A total of 506 eligible patients, 84 (16%) had acute pancreatitis. The PRE-PAN score [area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.84–0.93] included six factors: alcohol drinking, epigastric pain, pain radiating to the back, persistent pain, nausea or vomiting, and the pain score. A score of >7.5 points suggested a high probability of acute pancreatitis [positive likelihood ratio, 6.80 (95% CI, 4.75–9.34; p < 0.001); sensitivity, 66.7% (95% CI, 54.6–77.3); specificity, 90.2% (95% CI, 86.6–93.1); positive predictive value, 58.5% (95% CI, 47.1–69.3);, 92.9% (95% CI, 89.6–95.4)].

Conclusion

A PRE-PAN risk score is a screening tool for predicting acute pancreatitis without using the lipase concentration or radiological findings. A high predictive score, especially >7.5, suggests a high probability of acute pancreatitis.

Pancreatic Disorders in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) can involve multiple organ systems, and pancreatic manifestations of IBD are not uncommon. The incidence of several pancreatic diseases is more frequent in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis than in the general population. Pancreatic manifestations in IBD include a heterogeneous group of disorders and abnormalities ranging from mild, self-limited disorders to severe diseases. Asymptomatic elevation of amylase and/or lipase is common. The risk of acute pancreatitis in patients with IBD is increased due to the higher incidence of cholelithiasis and drug-induced pancreatitis in this population. Patients with IBD commonly have altered pancreatic histology and chronic pancreatic exocrine dysfunction. Diagnosing acute pancreatitis in patients with IBD is challenging. In this review, we discuss the manifestations and possible causes of pancreatic abnormalities in patients with IBD.

Prevalence of imaging findings of acute pancreatitis in emergency department patients with elevated serum lipase

PURPOSE

To assess the association of imaging features of acute pancreatitis (AP) with the magnitude of lipase elevation in Emergency Department (ED) patients.

METHODS

This Institutional Review Board-approved retrospective study included 509 consecutive patients presenting from 9/1/13-8/31/15 to a large academic ED with serum lipase levels ≥3× the upper limit of normal (ULN) (≥180 U/L). Patients were excluded if they did not have imaging (n = 131) or had a history of trauma, abdominal metastases, altered mental status, or transfer from an outside hospital (n = 190); the final study population was 188 patients. Imaging exams were retrospectively evaluated, and a consensus opinion of two subspecialty-trained abdominal radiologists was used to diagnose AP. Primary outcome was presence of imaging features of AP stratified by lipase level (≥3×-10× ULN and > 10× ULN). Secondary outcome was rate of discordant consensus evaluation compared to original radiologist's report.

RESULTS

25.0% of patients (47/188) had imaging features of AP. When lipase was >10× ULN (n = 94), patients were more likely to have imaging features of AP (34%) vs. those with mild elevation (16%) (p = 0.0042). There was moderately strong correlation between lipase level and presence of imaging features of AP (r = 0.48, p < 0.0001). Consensus review of CT and MRI images was discordant with the original report in 14.9% (28/188) of cases.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of imaging signs of AP in an ED population with lipase ≥3× ULN undergoing imaging is low. However, the probability of imaging features of AP increases as lipase value increases.

Clinical course and outcome among patients with acute pancreatitis and COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The data on clinical course and outcome of acute pancreatitis among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are sparse. In this study, we analyzed the clinical profiles of patients with COVID 19 and acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted on Research Patient Data Registry data which was pooled from five Mass General Brigham Healthcare Network hospitals. We extracted data on demographics, symptoms, ICU transfer, mechanical ventilation, laboratories' profiles, imaging findings, and patient outcomes.

RESULT

Of 985 screened adult patients, 17 were eligible for the study, 9 (52.9%) were admitted primarily for respiratory failure and developed acute pancreatitis after a median of 22.5 days (13-76 days) from the onset of COVID-19 symptoms. On contrary, eight patients presented with typical symptoms and were diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, the majority with mild severity (62.5%) on admission. Patients who were admitted primarily with severe COVID-19 illness were younger (median age 57 vs. 63 years), females (55.6 vs. 25%), of Hispanic ethnicity (55.6 vs. 25%), and obese (88.9 vs. 37.5%). The median peak lipase, C reactive protein, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, D-dimer were higher among patients who developed acute pancreatitis later during hospitalization. Patients who developed acute pancreatitis later also experienced higher episodes of necrotizing pancreatitis (11.1% vs. 0), thromboembolic complications (55.6 vs. 12.5%), and higher mortality (37.5 vs. 12.5%).

CONCLUSION

Acute pancreatitis is not common among patients with COVID-19. Patients with COVID-19 who had acute pancreatitis on admission had more benign course and overall better outcome as compared to the patients who developed acute pancreatitis during hospitalization.

Increased levels of miR-372 correlate with disease progression in patients with hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis

The aim of the present study was to investigate the expression of microRNA (miRNA)-372 in the serum of patients with hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HTGAP), and its clinical significance. Patients with a serum lipid concentration ≥11.3 or 5.65-11.3 mmol/l with chylous serum were included in group A (n=40). The remaining patients did not have HTGAP and were included in group B (B). A further 25 patients with hyperlipidemia, but not AP (group C), and 30 healthy volunteers (group D) were recruited as controls. The level of miR-372 in the serum of group A (4.76±2.60) was significantly increased compared with groups B (0.98±0.80), C (0.85±0.62) and D (0.76±0.44); however, there was no significant difference in the expression of miR-372 between groups B, C and D. The expression level of miR-372 was significantly increased in the severe HTGAP group (6.45±2.20) compared with the mild HTGAP group (3.08±1.74). Further experiments suggested that the expression level of miR-372 was positively correlated with the level of triacylglycerol (r=0.666; P<0.001) but not with the level of amylase (r=-0.145; P>0.05). ROC analysis indicated that the combined use of miR-372 expression levels and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scoring improved the diagnostic value for HTGAP. In summary, the expression of miR-372 in HTGAP was significantly upregulated and increased with the severity of the disease. The results of the present study may provide a novel strategy for the diagnosis and severity assessment of HTGAP in the clinic.