Cost-effectiveness of Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance in High-Risk Individuals: An Economic Analysis

Can our experience with surveillance for inherited pancreatic cancer help to identify early pancreatic cancer in the general population?

Screening of the general population for cancer is a matter of primary prevention reducing the burden of disease. Whilst this is successful for several cancers including breast, colon and prostate, the situation to screen and hence prevent pancreatic cancer is different. The organ is not as accessible to simple physical exam or biological samples (fecal or blood test). Neither exists a blood test such as PSA that is cost-effective. Reviewing the evidence from screening risk groups for pancreatic cancer, one must conclude that there is no rational at present to screen the general population, for a lack of appropriate tests.

Review of the cost-effectiveness of surveillance for hereditary pancreatic cancer

Individuals with hereditary pancreatic cancer risk include high risk individuals (HRIs) with germline genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer (PC) and/or a strong family history of PC. Previously, studies have shown that PC surveillance in HRIs can downstage PC diagnosis and extend survival leading to pancreatic surveillance being recommended for certain HRIs. However, the optimal surveillance strategy remains uncertain, including which modalities should be used for surveillance, how frequently should surveillance be performed, and which sub-groups of HRIs should undergo surveillance. Additionally, in the ideal world PC surveillance should also be cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness analysis is a valuable tool that can consider the costs, potential health benefits, and risks among various PC surveillance strategies. In this review, we summarize the cost-effectiveness of various PC surveillance strategies for HRIs for hereditary pancreatic cancer and provide potential avenues for future work in this field. Additionally, we include cost-effectiveness studies among individuals with new-onset diabetes (NoD), a high-risk group for sporadic PC, as a comparison.

Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance and Survival of High-Risk Individuals

Importance

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a deadly disease with increasing incidence. The majority of PDACs are incurable at presentation, but population-based screening is not recommended. Surveillance of high-risk individuals for PDAC may lead to early detection, but the survival benefit is unproven.

Objective

To compare the survival of patients with surveillance-detected PDAC with US national data.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This comparative cohort study was conducted in multiple US academic medical centers participating in the Cancer of the Pancreas Screening program, which screens high-risk individuals with a familial or genetic predisposition for PDAC. The comparison cohort comprised patients with PDAC matched for age, sex, and year of diagnosis from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. The Cancer of the Pancreas Screening program originated in 1998, and data collection was done through 2021. The data analysis was performed from April 29, 2022, through April 10, 2023.

Exposures

Endoscopic ultrasonography or magnetic resonance imaging performed annually and standard-of-care surgical and/or oncologic treatment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Stage of PDAC at diagnosis, overall survival (OS), and PDAC mortality were compared using descriptive statistics and conditional logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, and competing risk regression models. Sensitivity analyses and adjustment for lead-time bias were also conducted.

Results

A total of 26 high-risk individuals (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 65.8 [9.5] years; 15 female [57.7%]) with PDAC were compared with 1504 SEER control patients with PDAC (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 66.8 [7.9] years; 771 female [51.3%]). The median primary tumor diameter of the 26 high-risk individuals was smaller than in the control patients (2.5 [range, 0.6-5.0] vs 3.6 [range, 0.2-8.0] cm, respectively; P < .001). The high-risk individuals were more likely to be diagnosed with a lower stage (stage I, 10 [38.5%]; stage II, 8 [30.8%]) than matched control patients (stage I, 155 [10.3%]; stage II, 377 [25.1%]; P < .001). The PDAC mortality rate at 5 years was lower for high-risk individuals than control patients (43% vs 86%; hazard ratio, 3.58; 95% CI, 2.01-6.39; P < .001), and high-risk individuals lived longer than matched control patients (median OS, 61.7 [range, 1.9-147.3] vs 8.0 [range, 1.0-131.0] months; 5-year OS rate, 50% [95% CI, 32%-80%] vs 9% [95% CI, 7%-11%]).

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that surveillance of high-risk individuals may lead to detection of smaller, lower-stage PDACs and improved survival.

The role of endoscopic ultrasound in the detection of pancreatic lesions in high-risk individuals

Individuals at high risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma are eligible for surveillance within research programs. These programs employ periodic imaging in the form of magnetic resonance imaging/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic ultrasound for the detection of early cancer or high-grade precursor lesions. This narrative review discusses the role of endoscopic ultrasound within these surveillance programs. It details its overall strengths and limitations, yield, burden on patients, and how it compares to magnetic resonance imaging. Finally, recommendations are given when and how to incorporate endoscopic ultrasound in the surveillance of high-risk individuals.

Familial pancreatic cancer: a long fruitful journey

In the early years of my GI fellowship, a healthy 40-year-old man came to my clinic and announced that he was going to die of pancreatic cancer. His brothers, father and uncles had all died of the disease; he felt his fate was inescapable. I asked whether his family members had seen doctors or had any tests. His answer was yes to both. Even so, doctors could not diagnose the pancreatic cancer at early stages. CT scans were always negative. I thought to myself, in order to help this patient-CT scans may not be reliable for early detection. Perhaps other methods of imaging the pancreas might be of more benefit. This patient opened a door that led to a 30-year journey of trying to detect pancreatic cancer at earlier stages when it is curable.

The role of family history in predicting germline pathogenic variant carriers who develop pancreatic cancer: Results of a multicenter collaboration

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) surveillance is recommended for some individuals with a pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant (PV/LPV) in a PDAC susceptibility gene; the recommendation is often dependent on family history of PDAC. This study aimed to describe PDAC family history in individuals with PDAC who underwent genetic testing to determine the appropriateness of including a family history requirement in these recommendations.

METHODS

Individuals with PDAC with a germline heterozygous PV/LPV in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, EPCAM, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PALB2, or PMS2 (PV/LPV carriers) were assessed for family history of PDAC in first-degree relatives (FDRs) or second-degree relatives (SDRs) from nine institutions. A control group of individuals with PDAC without a germline PV/LPV was also assessed.

RESULTS

The study included 196 PV/LPV carriers and 1184 controls. In the PV/LPV carriers, 25.5% had an affected FDR and/or SDR compared to 16.9% in the control group (p = .004). PV/LPV carriers were more likely to have an affected FDR compared to the controls (p = .003) but there was no statistical difference when assessing only affected SDRs (p = .344).

CONCLUSIONS

Most PV/LPV carriers who developed PDAC did not have a close family history of PDAC and would not have met most current professional societies' recommendations for consideration of PDAC surveillance before diagnosis. However, PV/LPV carriers were significantly more likely to have a family history of PDAC, particularly an affected FDR. These findings support family history as a risk modifier in PV/LPV carriers, and highlight the need to identify other risk factors.

Outcomes of a 3-Year Prospective Surveillance in Individuals at High Risk of Pancreatic Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance of high-risk individuals (HRI) is becoming more common worldwide, aiming at anticipating PC diagnosis at a preclinical stage. In 2015, the Italian Registry of Families at Risk of Pancreatic Cancer was created. We aimed to assess the prevalence and incidence of pancreatic findings, oncological outcomes, and harms 7 years after the Italian Registry of Families at Risk of Pancreatic Cancer inception, focusing on individuals with at least a 3-year follow-up or developing events before.

METHODS

HRI (subjects with a family history or mutation carriers with/without a family history were enrolled in 18 centers). They underwent annual magnetic resonance with cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic ultrasound (NCT04095195).

RESULTS

During the study period (June 2015-September 2022), 679 individuals were enrolled. Of these, 524 (77.2%) underwent at least baseline imaging, and 156 (29.8%) with at least a 3-year follow-up or pancreatic malignancy/premalignancy-related events, and represented the study population. The median age was 51 (interquartile range 16) years. Familial PC cases accounted for 81.4% of HRI and individuals with pathogenic variant for 18.6%. Malignant (n = 8) and premalignant (1 PanIN3) lesions were found in 9 individuals. Five of these 8 cases occurred in pathogenic variant carriers, 4 in familial PC cases (2 tested negative at germline testing and 2 others were not tested). Three of the 8 PC were stage I. Five of the 8 PC were resectable, 3 Stage I, all advanced cases being prevalent. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year cumulative hazard of PC was 1.7%, 2.5%, and 3%, respectively. Median overall and disease-free survival of patients with resected PC were 18 and 12 months (95% CI not computable). Considering HRI who underwent baseline imaging, 6 pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (1 resected) and 1 low-yield surgery (low-grade mixed-intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm) were also reported.

DISCUSSION

PC surveillance in a fully public health care system is feasible and safe, and leads to early PC or premalignant lesions diagnoses, mostly at baseline but also over time.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening for Pancreatic Cancer Among High-Risk Populations

PURPOSE

We evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of combined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) among populations at high risk for the disease.

METHODS

We used a microsimulation model of the natural history of PDAC to estimate the lifetime health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of PDAC screening among populations with specific genetic risk factors for PDAC, including BRCA1 and BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, Lynch syndrome, TP53, CDKN2A, and STK11. For each high-risk population, we simulated 29 screening strategies, defined by starting age and frequency. Screening included MRI with follow-up EUS in a subset of patients. Costs of tests were based on Medicare reimbursement for MRI, EUS, fine-needle aspiration biopsy, and pancreatectomy. Cancer-related cost by stage of disease and phase of treatment was based on the literature. For each high-risk population, we performed an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis, assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 US dollars (USD) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

For men with relative risk (RR) 12.33 (CDKN2A) and RR 28 (STK11), annual screening was cost-effective, starting at age 55 and 40 years, respectively. For women, screening was only cost-effective for those with RR 28 (STK11), with annual screening starting at age 45 years.

CONCLUSION

Combined MRI/EUS screening may be a cost-effective approach for the highest-risk populations (among mutations considered, those with RR >12). However, for those with moderate risk (RR, 5-12), screening would only be cost-effective at higher WTP thresholds (eg, $200K USD/QALY) or with once-only screening.

Outcomes of the IMMray PanCan-d Test in High-Risk Individuals Undergoing Pancreatic Surveillance: Pragmatic Data and Lessons Learned

PURPOSE

An effective blood-based test for pancreatic cancer (PC) screening has remained elusive. The IMMray PanCan-d is the first commercially available blood-based test specifically designed for early detection of PC; however, outcomes from its use in clinical practice have not been reported.

METHODS

We performed a blinded spike-in study of 100 individuals who had an IMMray PanCan-d test, including 94 high-risk individuals (HRIs) undergoing PC surveillance and six individuals with known PC. Specimens were processed blindly following the commercial laboratory's standardized operating procedure. Positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated.

RESULTS

Cohort characteristics included a median age of 63 (IQR, 55-70) years, 57% female, 96% non-Hispanic White, 57% with a pathogenic variant in a PC risk gene (BRCA2 most commonly-18%), and 83% with a family history of PC. Among IMMray PanCan-d results from 94 HRIs undergoing PC surveillance, there was one positive (1%), seven borderlines (7%), 73 negatives (78%), and 13 tests not performed because of low CA19-9 expression (14%). No PC was diagnosed among these HRIs; however, there were two sub-cm pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors, seven clinically diagnosed side branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms ≥1 cm, and a sub-cm solid mass with indeterminate cytology requiring close follow-up; all these individuals had negative IMMray PanCan-d tests. Of the six spiked-in PCs, four (67%) yielded a positive and two (33%) yielded a negative. With an estimated disease prevalence of 2%, the PPV and NPV are 52% and 99%, respectively, if borderline results are considered negative and 12% and 99%, respectively, if borderline tests are considered positive.

CONCLUSION

In clinical practice, IMMray PanCan-d has a robust NPV; however, PPV is dramatically influenced by whether borderline results are characterized as a positive or negative result.

Treatment Costs and Social Burden of Pancreatic Cancer

(1) Background: Pancreatic cancer is the cancer with the third-highest mortality rate, and forecasts indicate its growing share in morbidity. The basis of treatment is inpatient chemotherapy and there is a strong focus on palliative care. (2) Methods: A literature review was conducted based on the rapid review methodology in PubMed and Cochrane databases. The search was supplemented with publications from the snowball search. Qualitative assessment of included publications was performed using AMSTAR2 modified scheme. (3) Results: The review included 17 publications, of which majority concerned direct costs related to the adopted treatment regimen. Most of the publications focused on comparing the cost-effectiveness of drug therapies and the costs of palliative treatment. Other publications concerned indirect costs generated by pancreatic cancer. They particularly focused on the economic burden of lost productivity due to sickness absence. (4) Conclusion: The increase in the incidence of pancreatic cancer translates into an increase in the costs of the health care system and indirect costs. Due to the significant share of hospitalization in the health care structure, direct costs are increasing. The inpatient treatment regimen and side effects translate into a loss of productivity for patients with pancreatic cancer. Among gastrointestinal cancers, pancreatic cancer generates the second largest indirect costs, although it has a much lower incidence rate than the dominant colorectal cancer. This indicates a significant problem of the economic burden of this cancer.

Cost-effectiveness of pancreas surveillance: The CDKN2A-p16-Leiden cohort

BACKGROUND

CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation carriers have a high lifetime risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), with very poor survival. Surveillance may improve prognosis.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of surveillance, as compared to no surveillance.

METHODS

In 2000, a surveillance program was initiated at Leiden University Medical Center with annual MRI and optional endoscopic ultrasound. Data were collected on the resection rate of screen-detected tumors and on survival. The Kaplan-Meier method and a parametric cure model were used to analyze and compare survival. Based on the surveillance and survival data from the screening program, a state-transition model was constructed to estimate lifelong outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 347 mutation carriers participated in the surveillance program. PDAC was detected in 31 patients (8.9%) and the tumor could be resected in 22 patients (71.0%). Long-term cure among patients with resected PDAC was estimated at 47.1% (p < 0.001). The surveillance program was estimated to reduce mortality from PDAC by 12.1% and increase average life expectancy by 2.10 years. Lifelong costs increased by €13,900 per patient, with a cost-utility ratio of €14,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. For annual surveillance to have an acceptable cost-effectiveness in other settings, lifetime PDAC risk needs to be 10% or higher.

CONCLUSION

The tumor could be resected in most patients with a screen-detected PDAC. These patients had considerably better survival and as a result annual surveillance was found to be cost-effective.

Pancreatic Cancer: Changing Epidemiology and New Approaches to Risk Assessment, Early Detection, and Prevention

Pancreatic cancer usually results in poor survival with limited options for treatment, as most affected individuals present with advanced disease. Early detection of preinvasive pancreatic neoplasia and identifying molecular therapeutic targets provide opportunities for extending survival. Although screening for pancreatic cancer is currently not recommended for the general population, emerging evidence indicates that pancreatic surveillance can improve outcomes for individuals in certain high-risk groups. Changes in the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer, experience from pancreatic surveillance, and discovery of novel biomarkers provide a roadmap for new strategies for pancreatic cancer risk assessment, early detection, and prevention.

Diagnosis and Management of Pancreatic Cysts: A Comprehensive Review of the Literature

The prevalence of pancreatic cysts has been rising due to the widespread use of cross-sectional imaging (CT scan and MRI) of the abdomen. While most pancreatic cysts are benign and do not require treatment or surveillance, a significant minority are premalignant and rarely malignant. The risk stratification of these lesions is not straightforward, and individual risk assessment, cyst size, distribution, and alarming morphologic features (when present) can guide the next steps in management. Neoplastic pancreatic cysts are mucinous or non-mucinous. Endoscopic ultrasound with fine-needle aspiration is often required to classify pancreatic cysts into mucinous and non-mucinous cysts and to assess the malignant potential. Advances in endoscopic techniques (confocal laser endomicroscopy, microforceps biopsy) can provide a definitive diagnosis of pancreatic cysts in some cases; however, the use of these techniques involves a higher risk of adverse events.

Screening for pancreatic cancer has the potential to save lives, but is it practical?

INTRODUCTION

Most patients with pancreatic cancer present with advanced stage, incurable disease. However, patients with high-grade precancerous lesions and many patients with low-stage disease can be cured with surgery, suggesting that early detection has the potential to improve survival. While serum CA19.9 has been a long-standing biomarker used for pancreatic cancer disease monitoring, its low sensitivity and poor specificity have driven investigators to hunt for better diagnostic markers.

AREAS COVERED

This review will cover recent advances in genetics, proteomics, imaging, and artificial intelligence, which offer opportunities for the early detection of curable pancreatic neoplasms.

EXPERT OPINION

From exosomes, to circulating tumor DNA, to subtle changes on imaging, we know much more now about the biology and clinical manifestations of early pancreatic neoplasia than we did just five years ago. The overriding challenge, however, remains the development of a practical approach to screen for a relatively rare, but deadly, disease that is often treated with complex surgery. It is our hope that future advances will bring us closer to an effective and financially sound approach for the early detection of pancreatic cancer and its precursors.

Early Diagnosis of Pancreatic Cancer: Clinical Premonitions, Timely Precursor Detection and Increased Curative-Intent Surgery

BACKGROUND

The overall poor prognosis in pancreatic cancer is related to late clinical detection. Early diagnosis remains a considerable challenge in pancreatic cancer. Unfortunately, the onset of clinical symptoms in patients usually indicate advanced disease or presence of metastasis.

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

Currently, there are no designated diagnostic or screening tests for pancreatic cancer in clinical use. Thus, identifying risk groups, preclinical risk factors or surveillance strategies to facilitate early detection is a target for ongoing research. Hereditary genetic syndromes are a obvious, but small group at risk, and warrants close surveillance as suggested by society guidelines. Screening for pancreatic cancer in asymptomatic individuals is currently associated with the risk of false positive tests and, thus, risk of harms that outweigh benefits. The promise of cancer biomarkers and use of 'omics' technology (genomic, transcriptomics, metabolomics etc.) has yet to see a clinical breakthrough. Several proposed biomarker studies for early cancer detection lack external validation or, when externally validated, have shown considerably lower accuracy than in the original data. Biopsies or tissues are often taken at the time of diagnosis in research studies, hence invalidating the value of a time-dependent lag of the biomarker to detect a pre-clinical, asymptomatic yet operable cancer. New technologies will be essential for early diagnosis, with emerging data from image-based radiomics approaches, artificial intelligence and machine learning suggesting avenues for improved detection.

CONCLUSIONS

Early detection may come from analytics of various body fluids (eg 'liquid biopsies' from blood or urine). In this review we present some the technological platforms that are explored for their ability to detect pancreatic cancer, some of which may eventually change the prospects and outcomes of patients with pancreatic cancer.

Successful Pancreatic Cancer Screening Among Individuals at Elevated Risk Using Endoscopic Ultrasound and Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Community Hospital Experience

OBJECTIVES

Guidelines for testing individuals at risk (IAR) for developing pancreatic duct adenocarcinoma (PC) are being advanced from university hospital populations. We implemented a screen-in criteria and protocol for IAR for PC in our community hospital setting.

METHODS

Eligibility was based on germline status and/or family history of PC. Longitudinal testing continued, alternating between endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The primary objective was to analyze pancreatic conditions and their associations with risk factors. The secondary objective was to evaluate the outcomes and complications resulting from testing.

RESULTS

Over 93 months, 102 individuals completed baseline EUS, and 26 (25%) met defined endpoints of any abnormal findings in the pancreas. Average enrollment was 40 months, and all participants with endpoints continued standard surveillance. Two participants (1.8%) had endpoint findings requiring surgery for premalignant lesions. Increasing age predicted for endpoint findings. Analysis of longitudinal testing suggested reliability between the EUS and MRI results.

CONCLUSIONS

In our community hospital population, baseline EUS was effective in identifying the majority of findings; advancing age correlated with a greater chance of abnormalities. No differences were observed between EUS and MRI findings. Screening programs for PC among IAR can be successfully performed in the community setting.

The Multicenter Cancer of Pancreas Screening Study: Impact on Stage and Survival

PURPOSE

To report pancreas surveillance outcomes of high-risk individuals within the multicenter Cancer of Pancreas Screening-5 (CAPS5) study and to update outcomes of patients enrolled in prior CAPS studies.

METHODS

Individuals recommended for pancreas surveillance were prospectively enrolled into one of eight CAPS5 study centers between 2014 and 2021. The primary end point was the stage distribution of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) detected (stage I v higher-stage). Overall survival was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

Of 1,461 high-risk individuals enrolled into CAPS5, 48.5% had a pathogenic variant in a PDAC-susceptibility gene. Ten patients were diagnosed with PDAC, one of whom was diagnosed with metastatic PDAC 4 years after dropping out of surveillance. Of the remaining nine, seven (77.8%) had a stage I PDAC (by surgical pathology) detected during surveillance; one had stage II, and one had stage III disease. Seven of these nine patients with PDAC were alive after a median follow-up of 2.6 years. Eight additional patients underwent surgical resection for worrisome lesions; three had high-grade and five had low-grade dysplasia in their resected specimens. In the entire CAPS cohort (CAPS1-5 studies, 1,731 patients), 26 PDAC cases have been diagnosed, 19 within surveillance, 57.9% of whom had stage I and 5.2% had stage IV disease. By contrast, six of the seven PDACs (85.7%) detected outside surveillance were stage IV. Five-year survival to date of the patients with a screen-detected PDAC is 73.3%, and median overall survival is 9.8 years, compared with 1.5 years for patients diagnosed with PDAC outside surveillance (hazard ratio [95% CI]; 0.13 [0.03 to 0.50], P = .003).

CONCLUSION

Most pancreatic cancers diagnosed within the CAPS high-risk cohort in the recent years have had stage I disease with long-term survival.

Cost-effectiveness of MicroRNA for Pancreatic Cancer Screening in Patients With Diabetes

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of microRNA compared with carbohydrate antigen 19-9, abdominal ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging, endoscopic ultrasound, computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and no screening for pancreatic cancer (PC) screening in patients with diabetes.

METHODS

We developed a state-transition model from a health care payer perspective and a lifetime horizon. We targeted 3 hypothetical cohorts of patients with long-standing type 2 diabetes (LSD), new-onset diabetes (NOD), and LSD having intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), aged 40, 50, 60, and 70 years. The main outcomes were costs, quality-adjusted life-years, life expectancy life-years, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and deaths from PC.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, abdominal ultrasound in patients with LSD and microRNA in patients with NOD and LSD having IPMN were the most cost-effective for all age groups. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to PC incidence and the cost of microRNA. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that microRNA was 42% to 54% cost-effective for NOD and 76% to 78% cost-effective for LSD having IPMN at a willingness-to-pay level of US $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. MicroRNA prevented 30,641 PC deaths in diabetic patients compared with no screening.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with NOD and LSD having IPMN, microRNA-based PC screening is cost-effective and recommended for early PC detection.

Current Screening Strategies for Pancreatic Cancer

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a dreaded malignancy with a dismal 5-year survival rate despite maximal efforts on optimizing treatment strategies. Radical surgery is the only potential curative procedure. Unfortunately, the majority of patients are diagnosed with locally advanced or metastatic disease, which renders them ineligible for curative resection. Early detection of PDAC is thus considered to be the most effective way to improve survival. In this regard, pancreatic screening has been proposed to improve results by detecting asymptomatic stages of PDAC and its precursors. There is now evidence of benefits of systematic surveillance in high-risk individuals, and the current guidelines emphasize the potential of screening to affect overall survival in individuals with genetic susceptibility syndromes or familial occurrence of PDAC. Here we aim to summarize the current knowledge about screening strategies for PDAC, including the latest epidemiological data, risk factors, associated hereditary syndromes, available screening modalities, benefits, limitations, as well as management implications.

A Community-Based Pancreatic Cancer Screening Study in High-Risk Individuals: Preliminary Efficacy and Safety Results

INTRODUCTION

Pancreatic cancer (PC) screening recommendations have been based on studies performed solely at high-volume academic centers. To make PC screening more widely available, community-based efforts are essential. We implemented a prospective PC screening study in the community of Fairfield County, CT, and report our early safety and efficacy results.

METHODS

Eligible individuals were enrolled into an investigator-initiated study and underwent a baseline and 3 annual magnetic resonance imagings/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatographies (MRIs/MRCPs) with gadolinium, biannual blood donations for biobanking, and assessments for anxiety and depression. All MRIs were presented at a multidisciplinary board to determine whether further investigation was warranted.

RESULTS

Seventy-five individuals have been enrolled and 201 MRIs performed over a 2.6-year average length of follow-up. Abnormal pancreatic findings (predominantly small cysts) were detected in 58.7% of the participants. Among these, 6.7% underwent endoscopic ultrasound, with 1 case complicated by postprocedural pancreatitis. One surgical resection was performed on a 4.7-cm intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm with a focus on low-grade pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia. One incidental finding of fibrosing mediastinitis was detected. Anxiety and depression scores decreased over the course of this study from 21.4% to 5.4% and 10.7% to 3.6%, respectively.

DISCUSSION

This preliminary report supports the feasibility of performing MRI/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatographies-based PC screening as part of a clinical trial in a community setting. A longer follow-up is needed to better assess safety and efficacy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report from a community-based PC screening effort ( clinicaltrials.gov ID: NCT03250078).

Pancreatic Cancer: Pathogenesis, Screening, Diagnosis, and Treatment

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a clinically challenging cancer, due to both its late stage at diagnosis and its resistance to chemotherapy. However, recent advances in our understanding of the biology of PDAC have revealed new opportunities for early detection and targeted therapy of PDAC. In this review, we discuss the pathogenesis of PDAC, including molecular alterations in tumor cells, cellular alterations in the tumor microenvironment, and population-level risk factors. We review the current status of surveillance and early detection of PDAC, including populations at high risk and screening approaches. We outline the diagnostic approach to PDAC and highlight key treatment considerations, including how therapeutic approaches change with disease stage and targetable subtypes of PDAC. Recent years have seen significant improvements in our approaches to detect and treat PDAC, but large-scale, coordinated efforts will be needed to maximize the clinical impact for patients and improve overall survival.

Smoking and Pancreatic Cancer: Smoking Patterns, Tobacco Type, and Dose-Response Relationship

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is the primary cause of cancer death in the United States and Europe. Despite remarkable advances in the molecular understanding of PC and advances in new therapeutic approaches, PC remains a disease with a poor prognosis. Although evidence indicates that long-term smoking is a major cause of PC, the molecular pathways behind smoking-induced PC pathogenesis are not fully understood. Smoking cessation can significantly reduce the occurrence of PC.

This review explores the processes underpinning the influence of smoking-related chemicals on fibrosis and inflammation and provides insight into the etiology of PC. In the future, a thorough exploration of the effects of smoking chemicals on the activity of pancreatic stem cells and then on the essential mediators of the association with cancer cells would likely yield new diagnostic targets.

Imaging of the Pancreas in New-Onset Diabetes: A Prospective Pilot Study

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of cross-sectional imaging for detection of pancreatic cancer (PDAC) in patients with new-onset hyperglycemia and diabetes (NOD).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective pilot study from November 2018 to March 2020 within an integrated health system. Patients aged 50-85 years with newly elevated glycemic parameters without a history of diabetes were invited to complete a 3-phase contrast-enhanced computed tomography pancreas protocol scan while participating in the Prospective Study to Establish a NOD Cohort. Abnormal pancreatic findings, incidental extrapancreatic findings, and subsequent clinical evaluation were identified. Variability in clinical reporting between medical centers based on descriptors of pancreatic duct and parenchyma was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 130 of 147 participants (88.4%) consented to imaging; 93 scans were completed (before COVID-19 stay-at-home order). The median age was 62.4 years (interquartile range 56.3-68.8), 37.6% women; Hispanic (39.8%), White (29.0%), Black (14.0%), and Asian (13.3%). One (1.1%) case of PDAC (stage IV) was diagnosed, 12 of 93 participants (12.9%) had additional pancreatic findings: 5 fatty infiltration, 3 cysts, 2 atrophy, 1 divisum, and 1 calcification. There were 57 extrapancreatic findings among 52 of 93 (56%) unique patients; 12 of 57 (21.1%) prompted clinical evaluation with 2 additional malignancies diagnosed (nonsmall cell lung and renal oncocytoma). Reports from 1 participating medical center more frequently provided description of pancreatic parenchyma and ducts (92.9% vs 18.4%), P < 0.0001.

DISCUSSION

High proportion of incidental findings and variability in clinical reports are challenges to be addressed for a successful NOD-based early detection strategy for PDAC.

Long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals.

DESIGN

From 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with an estimated 10% or greater lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after obligatory evaluation by a clinical geneticist and genetic testing, and subjected them to annual surveillance with both endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI/cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) at each visit.

RESULTS

366 individuals (201 mutation-negative familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds and 165 PDAC susceptibility gene mutation carriers; mean age 54 years, SD 9.9) were followed for 63 months on average (SD 43.2). Ten individuals developed PDAC, of which four presented with a symptomatic interval carcinoma and six underwent resection. The cumulative PDAC incidence was 9.3% in the mutation carriers and 0% in the FPC kindreds (p<0.001). Median PDAC survival was 18 months (range 1-32). Surgery was performed in 17 individuals (4.6%), whose pathology revealed 6 PDACs (3 T1N0M0), 7 low-grade precursor lesions, 2 neuroendocrine tumours <2 cm, 1 autoimmune pancreatitis and in 1 individual no abnormality. There was no surgery-related mortality. EUS detected more solid lesions than MRI/MRCP (100% vs 22%, p<0.001), but less cystic lesions (42% vs 83%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The diagnostic yield of PDAC was substantial in established high-risk mutation carriers, but non-existent in the mutation-negative proven FPC kindreds. Nevertheless, timely identification of resectable lesions proved challenging despite the concurrent use of two imaging modalities, with EUS outperforming MRI/MRCP. Overall, surveillance by imaging yields suboptimal results with a clear need for more sensitive diagnostic markers, including biomarkers.

Multicancer Early Detection Technologies: A Review Informed by Past Cancer Screening Studies

More than 75% of cancer-related deaths occur from cancers for which we do not screen. New screening liquid biopsies may help fill these clinical gaps, although evidence of benefit still needs to be assessed. Which lessons can we learn from previous efforts to guide those of the future? Screening trials for ovarian, prostate, pancreatic, and esophageal cancers are revisited to assess the evidence, which has been limited by small effect sizes, short duration of early-stage disease relative to screening frequency, study design, and confounding factors. Randomized controlled trials (RCT) to show mortality reduction have required millions of screening-years, two-decade durations, and been susceptible to external confounding. Future RCTs with late-stage incidence as a surrogate endpoint could substantially reduce these challenges, and clinical studies demonstrating safety and effectiveness of screening in high-risk populations may enable extrapolation to broader average-risk populations. Multicancer early detection tests provide an opportunity to advance these practical study designs. Conditional approvals based on RCTs with surrogate endpoints, contingent upon real world evidence generation and continuation of trials to definitive endpoints, may lower practical barriers to innovation in cancer screening and enable greater progress.

Diagnostic Strategy of Early Stage Pancreatic Cancer via Clinical Predictor Assessment: Clinical Indicators, Risk Factors and Imaging Findings

Early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in the general population is difficult due to unknown clinical characteristics. This study was conducted to clarify the factors associated with early stage PDAC. Well-known symptoms and factors associated with PDAC were classified into clinical indicators, risk factors, and imaging findings concomitant with early stage PDAC. To analyze these factors for the detection of patients with early stage PDAC compared to patients without PDAC, we constructed new diagnostic strategies. The factors of 35 patients with early stage PDAC (stage 0 and IA) and 801 patients without PDAC were compared retrospectively. Clinical indicators; presence and number of indicators, elevated pancreatic enzyme level, tumor biomarker level, acute pancreatitis history, risk factors; familial pancreatic cancer, diabetes mellitus, smoking history, imaging findings; presence and number of findings, and main pancreatic duct dilation were significant factors for early stage PDAC detection. A new screening strategy to select patients who should be examined by imaging modalities from evaluating clinical indicators and risk factors and approaching a definitive diagnosis by evaluating imaging findings had a relatively high sensitivity, specificity, and areas under the curve of 80.0%, 80.8%, and 0.80, respectively. Diagnosis based on the new category and strategy may be reasonable for early stage PDAC detection.

Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance and Novel Strategies for Screening

Individuals with a genetic susceptibility to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) may benefit from surveillance to increase the likelihood of early detection. Currently, candidates for surveillance are identified based on genetic test results and family history of PDAC, and surveillance is accomplished through imaging of the pancreas (endoscopic ultrasound or MRI). Novel methods that incorporate personalized risk, biomarkers, and radiomics are being investigated in an attempt to improve identification of at-risk individuals and to increase detection of precursor and early-stage lesions.

EUS-based Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance in BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2/ATM Carriers Without a Family History of Pancreatic Cancer

Carriers of a pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) BRCA1/BRCA2/ATM/PALB2 variant are at increased risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), yet current guidelines recommend surveillance only for those with a family history of PDAC. We aimed to investigate outcomes of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-based PDAC surveillance in BRCA1/BRCA2/ATM/PALB2 carriers without a family history of PDAC. We performed a retrospective analysis of all P/LP BRCA1/BRCA2/ATM/PALB2 carriers who underwent EUS at a tertiary care center. Of 194 P/LP BRCA1/BRCA2/ATM/PALB2 carriers who underwent EUS, 64 (33%) had no family history of PDAC and had at least 1 EUS for PDAC surveillance. These individuals underwent 143 total EUSs, were predominantly female (72%), and BRCA2 carriers (73%), with the majority having a personal history of cancer other than PDAC (67%). The median age at time of first EUS was 62 years [interquartile range (IQR), 53-67 years] and a median of 2 EUSs (IQR 1-3) were performed per patient, with a median of 3 years (IQR 2-4.5 years) between the first and last EUS for those with more than 1 EUS. Pancreatic abnormalities were detected in 44%, including cysts in 27%, and incidental luminal abnormalities in 41%. Eight percent developed a new pancreatic mass or cyst during surveillance, 2 individuals developed PDAC, and no serious complications resulted from surveillance. After discussion of the risks, limitations, and potential benefits, PDAC surveillance can be considered in BRCA1/BRCA2/ATM/PALB2 carriers without a family history of PDAC; however, the effectiveness of PDAC surveillance in this population requires further study. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: BRCA1/BRCA2/ATM/PALB2 carriers have increased pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk, yet are typically not eligible for PDAC surveillance in the absence of PDAC family history. Herein we describe outcomes of PDAC surveillance in BRCA1/BRCA2/ATM/PALB2 carriers without a family history of PDAC, showing that PDAC surveillance can be considered in this high-risk group.

Threshold Analysis of the Cost-effectiveness of Endoscopic Ultrasound in Patients at High Risk for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Data from the International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium studies have demonstrated that screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma can be effective and that surveillance improves survival in high-risk individuals. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and cross-sectional imaging are both used, although there is some suggestion that EUS is superior. Demonstration of the cost-effectiveness of screening is important to implement screening in high-risk groups.

METHODS

Results from centers with EUS-predominant screening were pooled to evaluate efficacy of index EUS in screening. A decision analysis model simulated the outcome of high-risk patients who undergo screening and evaluated the parameters that would make screening cost-effective at a US $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year willingness to pay.

RESULTS

One-time index EUS has a sensitivity of 71.25% and specificity of 99.82% to detection to detect high-risk lesions. Screening with index EUS was cost-effective, particularly at lifetime pancreatic cancer probabilities of greater than 10.8%, or at lower probabilities if life expectancy after resection of a lesion that was at least 16 years, and if missed, lesion rates on index EUS are 5% or less.

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatic cancer screening can be cost-effective through index EUS, particularly for those individuals at high-lifetime risk of cancer.

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Risk-Based Pancreatic Cancer Screening in Patients With New-Onset Diabetes

BACKGROUND

There are no established methods for pancreatic cancer (PAC) screening, but the NCI and the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (PanCAN) are investigating risk-based screening strategies in patients with new-onset diabetes (NOD), a group with elevated PAC risk. Preliminary estimates of the cost-effectiveness of these strategies can provide insights about potential value and inform supplemental data collection. Using data from the Enriching New-Onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer (END-PAC) risk model validation study, we assessed the potential value of CT screening for PAC in those determined to be at elevated risk, as is being done in a planned PanCAN Early Detection Initiative trial.

METHODS

We created an integrated decision tree and Markov state-transition model to assess the cost-effectiveness of PAC screening in patients aged ≥50 years with NOD using CT imaging versus no screening. PAC prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity were derived from the END-PAC validation study. PAC stage distribution in the no-screening strategy and PAC survival were derived from the SEER program. Background mortality for patients with diabetes, screening and cancer care expenditure, and health state utilities were derived from the literature. Life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs), and costs were tracked over a lifetime horizon and discounted at 3% per year. Results are presented in 2020 US dollars, and we took a limited US healthcare perspective.

RESULTS

In the base case, screening resulted in 0.0055 more LYs, 0.0045 more QALYs, and $293 in additional expenditures for a cost per QALY gained of $65,076. In probabilistic analyses, screening resulted in a cost per QALY gained of <$50,000 and <$100,000 in 34% and 99% of simulations, respectively. In the threshold analysis, >25% of screen-detected PAC cases needed to be resectable for the cost per QALY gained with screening to be <$100,000.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that risk-based PAC screening in patients with NOD is likely to be cost-effective in the United States if even a modest fraction (>25%) of screen-detected patients with PAC are resectable. Future studies should reassess the value of this intervention once clinical trial data become available.

Artificial Intelligence and Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer: 2020 Summative Review

ABSTRACT

Despite considerable research efforts, pancreatic cancer is associated with a dire prognosis and a 5-year survival rate of only 10%. Early symptoms of the disease are mostly nonspecific. The premise of improved survival through early detection is that more individuals will benefit from potentially curative treatment. Artificial intelligence (AI) methodology has emerged as a successful tool for risk stratification and identification in general health care. In response to the maturity of AI, Kenner Family Research Fund conducted the 2020 AI and Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer Virtual Summit (www.pdac-virtualsummit.org) in conjunction with the American Pancreatic Association, with a focus on the potential of AI to advance early detection efforts in this disease. This comprehensive presummit article was prepared based on information provided by each of the interdisciplinary participants on one of the 5 following topics: Progress, Problems, and Prospects for Early Detection; AI and Machine Learning; AI and Pancreatic Cancer-Current Efforts; Collaborative Opportunities; and Moving Forward-Reflections from Government, Industry, and Advocacy. The outcome from the robust Summit conversations, to be presented in a future white paper, indicate that significant progress must be the result of strategic collaboration among investigators and institutions from multidisciplinary backgrounds, supported by committed funders.

Long-term positive psychological outcomes in an Australian pancreatic cancer screening program

Screening for pancreatic cancer (PC) in high-risk groups aimed to detect early cancers is currently done only in the research setting, and data on psychological outcomes of screening in these populations is scarce. To determine the psychological impact of a national Australian pancreatic screening program, a prospective study was conducted using validated psychological measures: impact of events scale (IES), psychological consequences questionnaire (PCQ) and the cancer worry scale. Measures were administered at baseline, 1-month and at 1-year post-enrolment and correlations with abnormal endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) results were calculated. Over a 6-year period, 102 participants were recruited to the screening program. Thirty-nine patients (38.2%) had an abnormal endoscopic ultrasound, and two patients (2.0%) were diagnosed with PC and two with other malignancies. Those with a personal history of cancer or a positive BRCA2 mutation demonstrated significantly increased worry about developing other types of cancer at baseline (p < 0.01). Irrespective of EUS result, there was a significant decrease of total IES score at 1 year (Z = - 2.0, p = 0.041). In patients with abnormal EUS results, there was a decrease in the total IES score at 1 year (Z = - 2.5, p = 0.011). In participants deemed to be most distressed at baseline based on their negative PCQ score, there was a significant decrease of the total PCQ (Z = - 3.2, p = 0.001), emotional (Z = - 3.0, p = 0.001), social (Z = 3.0, p = 0.001) and physical (Z = - 2.8, p = 0.002) subscale at 1-year post-intervention. This study provides evidence of the long-term psychological benefits of PC screening in high-risk patients. There was no negative impact of screening in the short-term and the positive benefits appeared at 1-year post-intervention irrespective of screening result.

Inherited predisposition to pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is projected to be the second leading cause of cancer death in the US by 2030. There are multiple germline pathogenic variants and cancer syndromes associated with an increased risk of PDAC. Precision treatment, informed by germline genetic testing and molecular tumor analysis, can optimize therapeutic regimens and outcomes for those diagnosed with PDAC. As a result, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network currently recommends genetic testing for all newly diagnosed PDAC patients given the clinical implications for treatment but also for the identification of at-risk family members who can benefit from pancreatic cancer screening and other cancer prevention strategies. This article reviews inherited risk factors for the development of PDAC and current screening strategies for the early detection of PDAC in high-risk populations.

A 3-Decade Analysis of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma After Solid Organ Transplant

OBJECTIVE

Solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients have moderately increased risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAC). We evaluated the incidence and survival of PAC in 2 cohorts and aimed to identify potential risk factors.

METHODS

This study performed a retrospective cohort analysis. Cohort A was extracted from the United Network of Organ Sharing data set and cohort B from SOT recipients evaluated at 3 Mayo Clinic transplant centers. The primary outcome was age-adjusted annual incidence of PAC. Descriptive statistics, hazard ratios, and survival rates were compared.

RESULTS

Cohort A and cohort B included 617,042 and 29,472 SOT recipients, respectively. In cohort A, the annual incidence rate was 12.78 per 100,000 in kidney-pancreas, 13.34 in liver, and 21.87 in heart-lung transplant recipients. Receiving heart-lung transplant, 50 years or older, and history of cancer (in either recipient or donor) were independent factors associated with PAC. Fifty-two patients developed PAC in cohort B. Despite earlier diagnosis (21.15% with stage I-II), survival rates were similar to those reported for sporadic (non-SOT) patients.

CONCLUSIONS

We report demographic and clinical risk factors for PAC after SOT, many of which were present before transplant and are common to sporadic pancreatic cancer. Despite the diagnosis at earlier stages, PAC in SOT portends a very poor survival.

Should This Patient Be Screened for Pancreatic Cancer? : Grand Rounds Discussion From Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center

Because pancreatic cancer is typically advanced at the time of diagnosis, it has a very low 5-year survival rate and may become the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States. A screening program to find early-stage pancreatic cancer is needed but has been challenging to develop because of the lack of an effective screening test. In 2019, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force performed an evidence review and updated its guidance, confirming its 2004 "D" recommendation against routine screening for average-risk patients. Here, 2 experts review the updated guideline and recent evidence and discuss whether a patient with a family history of pancreatic cancer should undergo screening.

Cost-effectiveness of Abdominal Ultrasound Versus Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Pancreatic Cancer Screening in Familial High-Risk Individuals in Japan

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to assess cost-effectiveness of abdominal ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging, endoscopic ultrasound, computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and no screening for pancreatic cancer screening in familial high-risk individuals (HRIs).

METHODS

We developed decision trees with Markov models for a hypothetical cohort of familial HRIs at the age of 50 year using a healthcare sector perspective and a lifetime horizon. Main outcomes were costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

In a base-case analysis, abdominal ultrasound was the most cost-effective (US $11,035, 17.4875 QALYs). Magnetic resonance imaging yielded the best benefits. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to the incidence of pancreatic cancer. Endoscopic ultrasound was more cost-effective than abdominal ultrasound when the incidence of pancreatic cancer was greater than 0.008 and under 0.016. Magnetic resonance imaging was more cost-effective than endoscopic ultrasound when the incidence of pancreatic cancer was greater than 0.016. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulation for 10,000 trials demonstrated that abdominal ultrasound was cost-effective 76% of the time at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US $50,000/QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Abdominal ultrasound is the most cost-effective and recommended for pancreatic cancer screening in familial HRIs in Japan. Evaluating the risk of pancreatic cancer among familial HRIs as a target for screening is significant.

Clinical value of tissue DNA integrity index in pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

DNA integrity index as a blood biomarker is associated with the prognosis of cancer patients.

AIMS

The primary goal of the study was to examine tissue DNA integrity index (DII) in a group of pancreatic cancer (PC) tumor tissues and control adjacent pancreatic tissues. We also aimed to test the relationship between the tumor tissue DII and the clinicopathological parameters and the overall survival.

METHODS

In the prospective study, DII was calculated using: the Alu 247/115 ratio, the LINE1 300/79 ratio and the average of the above values, based on the data obtained by real-time PCR. The tumors samples (n = 42) originated from the patients with pathologically confirmed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and the control adjacent pancreatic tissue specimens (n = 32) were received from surgical margins.

RESULTS

Specimens from the tumors pathologically marked as R1 (microscopic residual tumor) had a significantly higher LINE1 300/79 ratio values than specimens from adjacent normal pancreatic tissue (P<0.05). ROC curve analysis revealed that LINE1 300/79 ratio is a good parameter to distinguish between R0 and R1 tumors (AUC = 0.703, P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study exploring the tissue DNA integrity index (DII) in pancreatic cancer. LINE1 DII can be used as auxiliary parameter for objective evaluation of margin status.

Management of patients with increased risk for familial pancreatic cancer: updated recommendations from the International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening (CAPS) Consortium

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium met in 2018 to update its consensus recommendations for the management of individuals with increased risk of pancreatic cancer based on family history or germline mutation status (high-risk individuals).

METHODS

A modified Delphi approach was employed to reach consensus among a multidisciplinary group of experts who voted on consensus statements. Consensus was considered reached if ≥75% agreed or disagreed.

RESULTS

Consensus was reached on 55 statements. The main goals of surveillance (to identify high-grade dysplastic precursor lesions and T1N0M0 pancreatic cancer) remained unchanged. Experts agreed that for those with familial risk, surveillance should start no earlier than age 50 or 10 years earlier than the youngest relative with pancreatic cancer, but were split on whether to start at age 50 or 55. Germline ATM mutation carriers with one affected first-degree relative are now considered eligible for surveillance. Experts agreed that preferred surveillance tests are endoscopic ultrasound and MRI/magnetic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, but no consensus was reached on how to alternate these modalities. Annual surveillance is recommended in the absence of concerning lesions. Main areas of disagreement included if and how surveillance should be performed for hereditary pancreatitis, and the management of indeterminate lesions.

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatic surveillance is recommended for selected high-risk individuals to detect early pancreatic cancer and its high-grade precursors, but should be performed in a research setting by multidisciplinary teams in centres with appropriate expertise. Until more evidence supporting these recommendations is available, the benefits, risks and costs of surveillance of pancreatic surveillance need additional evaluation.

Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance: Who, When, and How

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Individuals who have an increased risk for pancreatic cancer (PC) due to personal or family history may benefit from surveillance of the pancreas to increase the likelihood of early detection. This review explores current indications for PC surveillance, as well as options for surveillance modality and timing, and data regarding surveillance outcomes.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recently published data suggests that individuals undergoing surveillance who develop PC are more likely to be diagnosed with resectable disease, which improves survival. Several professional organizations have published guidelines for surveillance to help define who should have surveillance, when surveillance should be performed, and how it can be accomplished. PC surveillance should be considered for individuals with a pathogenic variant in a PC-related gene who have an affected first- or second-degree relative and for individuals in a familial pancreatic cancer family who have an affected first-degree relative. Surveillance should begin at age 50, or 10 years before the earliest age of PC diagnosis in the family. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) or MRI/MRCP are both reasonable surveillance options, but EUS may be better at detecting small solid changes in the pancreas. Ideally, surveillance should be performed at expert centers in conjunction with research protocols.