Threshold Analysis of the Cost-effectiveness of Endoscopic Ultrasound in Patients at High Risk for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Review of the cost-effectiveness of surveillance for hereditary pancreatic cancer

Individuals with hereditary pancreatic cancer risk include high risk individuals (HRIs) with germline genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer (PC) and/or a strong family history of PC. Previously, studies have shown that PC surveillance in HRIs can downstage PC diagnosis and extend survival leading to pancreatic surveillance being recommended for certain HRIs. However, the optimal surveillance strategy remains uncertain, including which modalities should be used for surveillance, how frequently should surveillance be performed, and which sub-groups of HRIs should undergo surveillance. Additionally, in the ideal world PC surveillance should also be cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness analysis is a valuable tool that can consider the costs, potential health benefits, and risks among various PC surveillance strategies. In this review, we summarize the cost-effectiveness of various PC surveillance strategies for HRIs for hereditary pancreatic cancer and provide potential avenues for future work in this field. Additionally, we include cost-effectiveness studies among individuals with new-onset diabetes (NoD), a high-risk group for sporadic PC, as a comparison.

Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance and Survival of High-Risk Individuals

Importance

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a deadly disease with increasing incidence. The majority of PDACs are incurable at presentation, but population-based screening is not recommended. Surveillance of high-risk individuals for PDAC may lead to early detection, but the survival benefit is unproven.

Objective

To compare the survival of patients with surveillance-detected PDAC with US national data.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This comparative cohort study was conducted in multiple US academic medical centers participating in the Cancer of the Pancreas Screening program, which screens high-risk individuals with a familial or genetic predisposition for PDAC. The comparison cohort comprised patients with PDAC matched for age, sex, and year of diagnosis from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. The Cancer of the Pancreas Screening program originated in 1998, and data collection was done through 2021. The data analysis was performed from April 29, 2022, through April 10, 2023.

Exposures

Endoscopic ultrasonography or magnetic resonance imaging performed annually and standard-of-care surgical and/or oncologic treatment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Stage of PDAC at diagnosis, overall survival (OS), and PDAC mortality were compared using descriptive statistics and conditional logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, and competing risk regression models. Sensitivity analyses and adjustment for lead-time bias were also conducted.

Results

A total of 26 high-risk individuals (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 65.8 [9.5] years; 15 female [57.7%]) with PDAC were compared with 1504 SEER control patients with PDAC (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 66.8 [7.9] years; 771 female [51.3%]). The median primary tumor diameter of the 26 high-risk individuals was smaller than in the control patients (2.5 [range, 0.6-5.0] vs 3.6 [range, 0.2-8.0] cm, respectively; P < .001). The high-risk individuals were more likely to be diagnosed with a lower stage (stage I, 10 [38.5%]; stage II, 8 [30.8%]) than matched control patients (stage I, 155 [10.3%]; stage II, 377 [25.1%]; P < .001). The PDAC mortality rate at 5 years was lower for high-risk individuals than control patients (43% vs 86%; hazard ratio, 3.58; 95% CI, 2.01-6.39; P < .001), and high-risk individuals lived longer than matched control patients (median OS, 61.7 [range, 1.9-147.3] vs 8.0 [range, 1.0-131.0] months; 5-year OS rate, 50% [95% CI, 32%-80%] vs 9% [95% CI, 7%-11%]).

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that surveillance of high-risk individuals may lead to detection of smaller, lower-stage PDACs and improved survival.

The role of family history in predicting germline pathogenic variant carriers who develop pancreatic cancer: Results of a multicenter collaboration

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) surveillance is recommended for some individuals with a pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant (PV/LPV) in a PDAC susceptibility gene; the recommendation is often dependent on family history of PDAC. This study aimed to describe PDAC family history in individuals with PDAC who underwent genetic testing to determine the appropriateness of including a family history requirement in these recommendations.

METHODS

Individuals with PDAC with a germline heterozygous PV/LPV in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, EPCAM, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PALB2, or PMS2 (PV/LPV carriers) were assessed for family history of PDAC in first-degree relatives (FDRs) or second-degree relatives (SDRs) from nine institutions. A control group of individuals with PDAC without a germline PV/LPV was also assessed.

RESULTS

The study included 196 PV/LPV carriers and 1184 controls. In the PV/LPV carriers, 25.5% had an affected FDR and/or SDR compared to 16.9% in the control group (p = .004). PV/LPV carriers were more likely to have an affected FDR compared to the controls (p = .003) but there was no statistical difference when assessing only affected SDRs (p = .344).

CONCLUSIONS

Most PV/LPV carriers who developed PDAC did not have a close family history of PDAC and would not have met most current professional societies' recommendations for consideration of PDAC surveillance before diagnosis. However, PV/LPV carriers were significantly more likely to have a family history of PDAC, particularly an affected FDR. These findings support family history as a risk modifier in PV/LPV carriers, and highlight the need to identify other risk factors.

Optimal age to discontinue long-term surveillance of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: comparative cost-effectiveness of surveillance by age

OBJECTIVE

Current guidelines recommend long-term image-based surveillance for patients with low-risk intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). This simulation study aimed to examine the comparative cost-effectiveness of continued versus discontinued surveillance at different ages and define the optimal age to stop surveillance.

DESIGN

We constructed a Markov model with a lifetime horizon to simulate the clinical course of patients with IPMNs receiving imaging-based surveillance. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for continued versus discontinued surveillance at different ages to stop surveillance, stratified by sex and IPMN types (branch-duct vs mixed-type). We determined the optimal age to stop surveillance as the lowest age at which the ICER exceeded the willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100 000 per quality-adjusted life year. To estimate model parameters, we used a clinical cohort of 3000 patients with IPMNs and a national database including 40 166 patients with pancreatic cancer receiving pancreatectomy as well as published data.

RESULTS

In male patients, the optimal age to stop surveillance was 76-78 years irrespective of the IPMN types, compared with 70, 73, 81, and 84 years for female patients with branch-duct IPMNs <20 mm, =20-29 mm, ≥30 mm and mixed-type IPMNs, respectively. The suggested ages became younger according to an increasing level of comorbidities. In cases with high comorbidity burden, the ICERs were above the willingness-to-pay threshold irrespective of sex and the size of branch-duct IPMNs.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of long-term IPMN surveillance depended on sex, IPMN types, and comorbidity levels, suggesting the potential to personalise patient management from the health economic perspective.

Basic Principles and Role of Endoscopic Ultrasound in Diagnosis and Differentiation of Pancreatic Cancer from Other Pancreatic Lesions: A Comprehensive Review of Endoscopic Ultrasound for Pancreatic Cancer

Pancreatic cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Pancreatic lesions consist of both neoplastic and non-neoplastic lesions and often pose a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge due to similar clinical and radiological features. In recent years, pancreatic lesions have been discovered more frequently as incidental findings due to the increased utilization and widespread availability of abdominal cross-sectional imaging. Therefore, it becomes imperative to establish an early and appropriate diagnosis with meticulous differentiation in an attempt to balance unnecessary treatment of benign pancreatic lesions and missing the opportunity for early intervention in malignant lesions. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) has become an important diagnostic modality for the identification and risk stratification of pancreatic lesions due to its ability to provide detailed imaging and acquisition of tissue samples for analysis with the help of fine-needle aspiration/biopsy. The recent development of EUS-based technology, including contrast-enhanced endoscopic ultrasound, real-time elastography-endoscopic ultrasound, miniature probe ultrasound, confocal laser endomicroscopy, and the application of artificial intelligence has significantly augmented the diagnostic accuracy of EUS as it enables better evaluation of the number, location, dimension, wall thickness, and contents of these lesions. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the role of the different types of EUS available for the diagnosis and differentiation of pancreatic cancer from other pancreatic lesions while discussing their key strengths and important limitations.

Outcomes of the IMMray PanCan-d Test in High-Risk Individuals Undergoing Pancreatic Surveillance: Pragmatic Data and Lessons Learned

PURPOSE

An effective blood-based test for pancreatic cancer (PC) screening has remained elusive. The IMMray PanCan-d is the first commercially available blood-based test specifically designed for early detection of PC; however, outcomes from its use in clinical practice have not been reported.

METHODS

We performed a blinded spike-in study of 100 individuals who had an IMMray PanCan-d test, including 94 high-risk individuals (HRIs) undergoing PC surveillance and six individuals with known PC. Specimens were processed blindly following the commercial laboratory's standardized operating procedure. Positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated.

RESULTS

Cohort characteristics included a median age of 63 (IQR, 55-70) years, 57% female, 96% non-Hispanic White, 57% with a pathogenic variant in a PC risk gene (BRCA2 most commonly-18%), and 83% with a family history of PC. Among IMMray PanCan-d results from 94 HRIs undergoing PC surveillance, there was one positive (1%), seven borderlines (7%), 73 negatives (78%), and 13 tests not performed because of low CA19-9 expression (14%). No PC was diagnosed among these HRIs; however, there were two sub-cm pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors, seven clinically diagnosed side branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms ≥1 cm, and a sub-cm solid mass with indeterminate cytology requiring close follow-up; all these individuals had negative IMMray PanCan-d tests. Of the six spiked-in PCs, four (67%) yielded a positive and two (33%) yielded a negative. With an estimated disease prevalence of 2%, the PPV and NPV are 52% and 99%, respectively, if borderline results are considered negative and 12% and 99%, respectively, if borderline tests are considered positive.

CONCLUSION

In clinical practice, IMMray PanCan-d has a robust NPV; however, PPV is dramatically influenced by whether borderline results are characterized as a positive or negative result.

Pancreatic Cancer: Changing Epidemiology and New Approaches to Risk Assessment, Early Detection, and Prevention

Pancreatic cancer usually results in poor survival with limited options for treatment, as most affected individuals present with advanced disease. Early detection of preinvasive pancreatic neoplasia and identifying molecular therapeutic targets provide opportunities for extending survival. Although screening for pancreatic cancer is currently not recommended for the general population, emerging evidence indicates that pancreatic surveillance can improve outcomes for individuals in certain high-risk groups. Changes in the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer, experience from pancreatic surveillance, and discovery of novel biomarkers provide a roadmap for new strategies for pancreatic cancer risk assessment, early detection, and prevention.

The Multicenter Cancer of Pancreas Screening Study: Impact on Stage and Survival

PURPOSE

To report pancreas surveillance outcomes of high-risk individuals within the multicenter Cancer of Pancreas Screening-5 (CAPS5) study and to update outcomes of patients enrolled in prior CAPS studies.

METHODS

Individuals recommended for pancreas surveillance were prospectively enrolled into one of eight CAPS5 study centers between 2014 and 2021. The primary end point was the stage distribution of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) detected (stage I v higher-stage). Overall survival was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

Of 1,461 high-risk individuals enrolled into CAPS5, 48.5% had a pathogenic variant in a PDAC-susceptibility gene. Ten patients were diagnosed with PDAC, one of whom was diagnosed with metastatic PDAC 4 years after dropping out of surveillance. Of the remaining nine, seven (77.8%) had a stage I PDAC (by surgical pathology) detected during surveillance; one had stage II, and one had stage III disease. Seven of these nine patients with PDAC were alive after a median follow-up of 2.6 years. Eight additional patients underwent surgical resection for worrisome lesions; three had high-grade and five had low-grade dysplasia in their resected specimens. In the entire CAPS cohort (CAPS1-5 studies, 1,731 patients), 26 PDAC cases have been diagnosed, 19 within surveillance, 57.9% of whom had stage I and 5.2% had stage IV disease. By contrast, six of the seven PDACs (85.7%) detected outside surveillance were stage IV. Five-year survival to date of the patients with a screen-detected PDAC is 73.3%, and median overall survival is 9.8 years, compared with 1.5 years for patients diagnosed with PDAC outside surveillance (hazard ratio [95% CI]; 0.13 [0.03 to 0.50], P = .003).

CONCLUSION

Most pancreatic cancers diagnosed within the CAPS high-risk cohort in the recent years have had stage I disease with long-term survival.

Cost-effectiveness of MicroRNA for Pancreatic Cancer Screening in Patients With Diabetes

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of microRNA compared with carbohydrate antigen 19-9, abdominal ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging, endoscopic ultrasound, computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and no screening for pancreatic cancer (PC) screening in patients with diabetes.

METHODS

We developed a state-transition model from a health care payer perspective and a lifetime horizon. We targeted 3 hypothetical cohorts of patients with long-standing type 2 diabetes (LSD), new-onset diabetes (NOD), and LSD having intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), aged 40, 50, 60, and 70 years. The main outcomes were costs, quality-adjusted life-years, life expectancy life-years, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and deaths from PC.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, abdominal ultrasound in patients with LSD and microRNA in patients with NOD and LSD having IPMN were the most cost-effective for all age groups. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to PC incidence and the cost of microRNA. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that microRNA was 42% to 54% cost-effective for NOD and 76% to 78% cost-effective for LSD having IPMN at a willingness-to-pay level of US $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. MicroRNA prevented 30,641 PC deaths in diabetic patients compared with no screening.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with NOD and LSD having IPMN, microRNA-based PC screening is cost-effective and recommended for early PC detection.

Imaging of the Pancreas in New-Onset Diabetes: A Prospective Pilot Study

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of cross-sectional imaging for detection of pancreatic cancer (PDAC) in patients with new-onset hyperglycemia and diabetes (NOD).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective pilot study from November 2018 to March 2020 within an integrated health system. Patients aged 50-85 years with newly elevated glycemic parameters without a history of diabetes were invited to complete a 3-phase contrast-enhanced computed tomography pancreas protocol scan while participating in the Prospective Study to Establish a NOD Cohort. Abnormal pancreatic findings, incidental extrapancreatic findings, and subsequent clinical evaluation were identified. Variability in clinical reporting between medical centers based on descriptors of pancreatic duct and parenchyma was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 130 of 147 participants (88.4%) consented to imaging; 93 scans were completed (before COVID-19 stay-at-home order). The median age was 62.4 years (interquartile range 56.3-68.8), 37.6% women; Hispanic (39.8%), White (29.0%), Black (14.0%), and Asian (13.3%). One (1.1%) case of PDAC (stage IV) was diagnosed, 12 of 93 participants (12.9%) had additional pancreatic findings: 5 fatty infiltration, 3 cysts, 2 atrophy, 1 divisum, and 1 calcification. There were 57 extrapancreatic findings among 52 of 93 (56%) unique patients; 12 of 57 (21.1%) prompted clinical evaluation with 2 additional malignancies diagnosed (nonsmall cell lung and renal oncocytoma). Reports from 1 participating medical center more frequently provided description of pancreatic parenchyma and ducts (92.9% vs 18.4%), P < 0.0001.

DISCUSSION

High proportion of incidental findings and variability in clinical reports are challenges to be addressed for a successful NOD-based early detection strategy for PDAC.

Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance and Novel Strategies for Screening

Individuals with a genetic susceptibility to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) may benefit from surveillance to increase the likelihood of early detection. Currently, candidates for surveillance are identified based on genetic test results and family history of PDAC, and surveillance is accomplished through imaging of the pancreas (endoscopic ultrasound or MRI). Novel methods that incorporate personalized risk, biomarkers, and radiomics are being investigated in an attempt to improve identification of at-risk individuals and to increase detection of precursor and early-stage lesions.