Assessment of the prognostic value of certain acute-phase proteins and procalcitonin in the prognosis of acute pancreatitis

Application Value of the Automated Machine Learning Model Based on Modified Computed Tomography Severity Index Combined With Serological Indicators in the Early Prediction of Severe Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are widely applied in building models of medicine due to their powerful studying and generalizing ability. To assess the value of the Modified Computed Tomography Severity Index (MCTSI) combined with serological indicators for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) by automated ML (AutoML).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinical data, of the patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) hospitalized in Hospital 1 and hospital 2 from January 2017 to December 2021, were retrospectively analyzed. Serological indicators within 24 hours of admission were collected. MCTSI score was completed by noncontrast computed tomography within 24 hours of admission. Data from the hospital 1 were adopted for training, and data from the hospital 2 were adopted for external validation. The diagnosis of AP and SAP was based on the 2012 revised Atlanta classification of AP. Models were built using traditional logistic regression and AutoML analysis with 4 types of algorithms. The performance of models was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis based on logistic regression and decision curve analysis, feature importance, SHapley Additive exPlanation Plot, and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanation based on AutoML.

RESULTS

A total of 499 patients were used to develop the models in the training data set. An independent data set of 201 patients was used to test the models. The model developed by the Deep Neural Net (DL) outperformed other models with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (areas under the curve) of 0.907 in the test set. Furthermore, among these AutoML models, the DL and gradient boosting machine models achieved the highest sensitivity values, both exceeding 0.800.

CONCLUSION

The AutoML model based on the MCTSI score combined with serological indicators has good predictive value for SAP in the early stage.

Administration of Warfarin Inhibits the Development of Cerulein-Induced Edematous Acute Pancreatitis in Rats

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe disease with high morbidity and mortality in which inflammation and coagulation play crucial roles. The development of inflammation leads to vascular injury, endothelium and leukocytes stimulation, and an increased level of tissue factor, which results in the activation of the coagulation process. For this reason, anticoagulants may be considered as a therapeutic option in AP. Previous studies have shown that pretreatment with heparin, low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH), or acenocoumarol inhibits the development of AP. The aim of the present study was to check if pretreatment with warfarin affects the development of edematous pancreatitis evoked by cerulein. Warfarin (90, 180, or 270 µg/kg/dose) or saline were administered intragastrically once a day for 7 days consecutively before the induction of AP. AP was evoked by the intraperitoneal administration of cerulein. The pre-administration of warfarin at doses of 90 or 180 µg/kg/dose reduced the histological signs of pancreatic damage in animals with the induction of AP. Additionally, other parameters of AP, such as an increase in the serum activity of lipase and amylase, the plasma concentration of D-dimer, and interleukin-1β, were decreased. In addition, pretreatment with warfarin administered at doses of 90 or 180 µg/kg/dose reversed the limitation of pancreatic blood flow evoked by AP development. Warfarin administered at a dose of 270 µg/kg/dose did not exhibit a preventive effect in cerulein-induced AP. Conclusion: Pretreatment with low doses of warfarin inhibits the development of AP evoked by the intraperitoneal administration of cerulein.

The severity and infection of acute pancreatitis may increase the risk of bleeding in patients undergoing EUS-guided drainage and endoscopic necrosectomy: a large retrospective cohort

BACKGROUND

There has been great progress in the use of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided drainage in acute pancreatitis patients using a novel lumen-apposing metal stent (LAMS) in the last decade, but some patients experience bleeding. Our research analyzed the preprocedural risk factors for bleeding.

METHODS

From July 13, 2016 to June 23, 2021, we retrospectively analyzed all patients who received endoscopic drainage by the LAMS in our hospital. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors. We plotted ROC curves based on the independent risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 205 patients were analyzed and 5 patients were excluded. A total of 200 patients were included in our research. Thirty (15%) patients presented with bleeding. In the multivariate analysis, computed tomography severity index score (CTSI) score [odds ratio (OR), 2.66; 95% CI: 1.31-5.38; P = 0.007], positive blood cultures [odds ratio (OR), 5.35; 95% CI: 1.31-21.9; P = 0.02], and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score [odds ratio (OR), 1.14; 95% CI: 1. 01-1.29; P = 0.045] were associated with bleeding. The area under the ROC curve of the combined predictive indicator was 0.79.

CONCLUSION

Bleeding in endoscopic drainage by the LAMS is significantly associated with the CTSI score, positive blood cultures, and APACHE II score. This result could help clinicians make more appropriate choices.

Dynamics of Serum Procalcitonin Can Predict Outcome in Patients of Infected Pancreatic Necrosis: A Prospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

Timely intervention can alter outcome in patients of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) but lacks adequate biomarker. Role of serum procalcitonin (PCT) in the management of IPN is understudied, and hence, this study was planned.

METHODOLOGY

All patients of acute pancreatitis with IPN without prior intervention were included. Baseline demographic, radiological and laboratory parameters were documented. PCT was measured at baseline, prior to intervention, and thereafter every 72 h. Patients were grouped into those having baseline PCT < 1.0 ng/mL and those with PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL and various outcome measures were compared.

RESULTS

Of the 242 patients screened, 103 cases (66 males; 64.1%) with IPN were grouped into 2: PCT < 1.0 ng/mL (n = 29) and PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL (n = 74). Patients with baseline PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL had significantly more severe disease scores. 16 out of 19 patients with rise in PCT on day-7 post-intervention expired. PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL group had higher need for ICU (p = 0.001) and mortality (p = 0.044). PCT > 2.25 ng/mL (aOR 22.56; p = 0.013) at baseline and failure in reduction of PCT levels to < 60% of baseline at day-7 post-intervention (aOR 53.76; p = 0.001) were significant mortality predictors.

CONCLUSION

Baseline PCT > 1.0 ng/mL is associated with poor outcome. PCT > 2.25 ng/mL and failure in reduction of PCT levels to < 60% of its baseline at day-7 post-intervention can identify high-mortality risk patients.

Automated Machine Learning for the Early Prediction of the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis in Hospitals

Background

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are widely applied in building models of medicine due to their powerful studying and generalizing ability. This study aims to explore different ML models for early identification of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) among patients hospitalized for acute pancreatitis.

Methods

This retrospective study enrolled patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) from multiple centers. Data from the First Affiliated Hospital and Changshu No. 1 Hospital of Soochow University were adopted for training and internal validation, and data from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were adopted for external validation from January 2017 to December 2021. The diagnosis of AP and SAP was based on the 2012 revised Atlanta classification of acute pancreatitis. Models were built using traditional logistic regression (LR) and automated machine learning (AutoML) analysis with five types of algorithms. The performance of models was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) based on LR and feature importance, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) Plot, and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanation (LIME) based on AutoML.

Results

A total of 1,012 patients were included in this study to develop the AutoML models in the training/validation dataset. An independent dataset of 212 patients was used to test the models. The model developed by the gradient boost machine (GBM) outperformed other models with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.937 in the validation set and an AUC of 0.945 in the test set. Furthermore, the GBM model achieved the highest sensitivity value of 0.583 among these AutoML models. The model developed by eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) achieved the highest specificity value of 0.980 and the highest accuracy of 0.958 in the test set.

Conclusions

The AutoML model based on the GBM algorithm for early prediction of SAP showed evident clinical practicability.

Clinical profile, etiology, and outcome of acute pancreatitis: Experience at a tertiary care center

Background:

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory process of the pancreas with varying degree of involvement of regional tissues. This was a population-based study on the incidence of AP. We aimed to determine the incidence, etiology, and outcome of AP.

Materials and Methodology:

This prospective study was conducted in the Department of Medicine, King George's Medical University, Lucknow, India, on 120 patients of AP. Clinical history, examination, and laboratory investigations were done. Severity of AP was assessed using the modified Atlanta classification.

Results:

A total of 120 patients comprising of 88 men (73.33%) and 32 women (26.66%) were recruited. The mean age of study participant was 36.96 ± 13.44 years. The most common presentation was abdominal pain followed by vomiting. The leading etiological factors were alcohol in 85 patients (70.8%) and gallstones in 25 (20.8%). It was idiopathic 5 patients (4.1%). Mortality was seen in three (2.5%) patients, all of which had severe pancreatitis. Patients with body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m², Hematocrit (HCT) ≥44% and C-reactive protein (CRP) ≥150 mg/l had an increased risk of developing a severe AP.

Conclusions:

Alcohol and gallstones were the most common etiological factors of AP, whereas HCT, CRP, and BMI were the useful predictors of severe pancreatitis.

Overview and prospect of serum markers for early prediction of severity of acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is one of the most common and potentially fatal emergencies of the digestive system. Aseptic inflammation of the pancreas caused by self-digestion of trypsin is considered to be the main pathogenesis of AP. The clinical course and prognosis of AP with different degrees of severity vary greatly, so early prediction of the severity of AP is of great significance to the diagnosis and treatment of this disease. In recent years, great progress has been made in the early risk assessment and severity stratification of AP patients with serum markers. This article gives an overview and discuss the prospects of serum markers for early prediction of the severity of AP.

Delta neutrophil index as an early predictive marker of severe acute pancreatitis in the emergency department

Background

Predicting severe acute pancreatitis (AP) in the early clinical stage is important for low morbidity and mortality. Delta neutrophil index (DNI) is used to detect infection and inflammation, but no previous studies have evaluated the usefulness of DNI as an early predictor of progression to severe AP (SAP).

Methods

The medical records of patients who were diagnosed with AP at the emergency department (ED) of Wonju Severance Christian Hospital from January 2012 to August 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. The initial DNI obtained in the ED was compared with other inflammatory markers to predict SAP. Multivariate logistic regression was used for statistical analysis.

Results

Of the 209 cases included in the analysis, 13 were classified as SAP. Compared to the DNI of the mild to moderately SAP group, that in the SAP group was considerably higher. The DNI showed a positive correlation with the Atlanta classification and bedside index of severity in AP. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, DNI was an independent predictor of early SAP detection (odds ratio 1.122, 95% CI 1.045-1.205, p = 0.001). Among the biomarkers, DNI had the highest predictive value for SAP.

Conclusions

The DNI measured in the ED at presentation is a potentially useful adjunctive marker to predict SAP.

Free Thyroxine Determination in the Emergency Department Is a Predictor of Acute Pancreatitis Evolution

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and type of thyroid hormone levels alterations in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and analyze if variations are useful AP progression predictors.

METHODS

Three groups of patients were analyzed: AP patients (n = 90), abdominal pain patients (n = 30), and healthy control subjects (n = 40). Usual blood parameters for AP diagnosis and prognosis, thyroid-stimulating hormone (or thyrotropin), FT4 (free thyroxine), FT3 (free triiodothyronine), and TT3 (total triiodothyronine) levels were analyzed.

RESULTS

Thyroid hormone level alterations were detected only within the AP group (41% of total cases), being the reduction in T3 levels the most frequently detected deviation (15.6% of FT3 and 8.3% of TT3 cases). Alterations were not influenced by age or sex. Free thyroxine average values were also significantly higher in the AP group, compared with the healthy control group (P = 0.0005), resulting as independent predictors of both severity and mortality. Mortality in this group was 50%, with deceased patients showing FT4 levels above the reference limit.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that FT4 level determination during the initial clinical evaluation of patients admitted to the emergency service with AP can be included as a severity indicator to help determine the differential care of these cases.

Serum Urokinase-Type Plasminogen Activator Receptor Does Not Outperform C-Reactive Protein and Procalcitonin as an Early Marker of Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) concerns 10–20% of acute pancreatitis (AP) patients and is associated with a poor prognosis and high mortality. An early prognosis of the unfavorable outcome, transfer to an intensive care unit (ICU) and the introduction of an adequate treatment are crucial for patients’ survival. Recently, the elevated circulating urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (uPAR) has been reported to predict SAP with a high diagnostic accuracy among patients in a tertiary center. The aim of the study was to compare the diagnostic utility of uPAR and other inflammatory markers as the predictors of the unfavorable course of AP in patients admitted to a secondary care hospital within the first 24 h of the onset of AP. The study included 95 patients, eight with a SAP diagnosis. Serum uPAR was measured on admission and in the two subsequent days. On admission, uPAR significantly predicted organ failure, acute cardiovascular failure, acute kidney injury, the need for intensive care, and death. The diagnostic accuracy of the admission uPAR for the prediction of SAP, organ failure, and ICU transfer or death was low to moderate and did not differ significantly from the diagnostic accuracy of interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, D-dimer and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1. In the secondary care hospital, where most patients with AP are initially admitted, uPAR measurements did not prove better than the currently used markers.

Does the Automatic Measurement of Interleukin 6 Allow for Prediction of Complications during the First 48 h of Acute Pancreatitis?

Acute pancreatitis (AP) in most patients takes a course of self-limiting local inflammation. However, up to 20% of patients develop severe AP (SAP), associated with systemic inflammation and/or pancreatic necrosis. Early prediction of SAP allows for the appropriate intensive treatment of severe cases, which reduces mortality. Serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) has been proposed as a biomarker to assist early diagnosis of SAP, however, most data come from studies utilizing IL-6 measurements with ELISA. Our aim was to verify the diagnostic usefulness of IL-6 for the prediction of SAP, organ failure, and need for intensive care in the course of AP using a fully automated assay. The study included 95 adult patients with AP of various severity (29 mild, 58 moderately-severe, 8 severe) admitted to a hospital within 24 h from the onset of symptoms. Serum IL-6 was measured using electochemiluminescence immunoassay in samples collected on admission and on the next day of hospital stay. On both days, patients with SAP presented the highest IL-6 levels. IL-6 correlated positively with other inflammatory markers (white blood cell and neutrophil counts, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin), the markers of renal injury (kidney injury molecule-1 and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin), and the markers of endothelial dysfunction (angiopoietin-2, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1). IL-6 on admission significantly predicted SAP, vital organ failure, and the need for intensive care or death, with areas under the receiver operating curve between 0.75 and 0.78, not significantly different from multi-variable prognostic scores. The fully automated assay allows for fast and repeatable measurements of serum IL-6, enabling wider clinical use of this valuable biomarker.

Inflammatory mediators in the diagnosis and treatment of acute pancreatitis: pentraxin-3, procalcitonin and myeloperoxidase

INTRODUCTION

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is the third most common gastrointestinal disease at hospital admission. The etiology and pathogenesis of this disease are not completely clear. Our study was intended to determine the systemic levels of pentraxin-3 (PTX-3), myeloperoxidase (MPO), procalcitonin (PCT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) as prognostic parameters in early stages of AP. We also determined the effects of treatment on PTX-3, MPO, PCT and CRP levels in AP.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study group comprised 44 AP patients (22 male, 22 female; age: 49.3 ±16.9 years) referred to our outpatient clinic. Additionally, our investigation included a control group of 30 healthy volunteers (18 male, 12 female; age: 50.8 ±12.6 years).

RESULTS

Leukocytes, glucose, aspartate aminotransferase (AST (SGOT)), alanine aminotransferase (ALT (SGPT)), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), total and direct bilirubin levels were significantly higher in the AP group (p < 0.05, all). CRP, PTX-3, MPO and PCT were considerably higher in the AP group (p < 0.001, all), and after treatment, CRP, PTX-3, MPO and PCT levels were significantly lower (p < 0.001, all).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicated that the CRP, PTX-3, MPO and PCT levels increase in patients with AP and hence these indicators can be used as diagnostic factors to predict inflammation severity in AP. It was revealed that after treatment, there were significant reductions in biomarker levels. However, further research is needed in order to understand how these biomarkers can help to monitor inflammatory responses in AP.

Serum Uromodulin Levels in Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury in the Early Phase of Acute Pancreatitis

In health, uromodulin is the main protein of urine. Serum uromodulin concentrations (sUMOD) have been shown to correlate with kidney function. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is among the main complications of severe acute pancreatitis (AP). No reports exist on sUMOD in patients with AP, including the diagnostic usefulness for early prediction of AP severity. We measured sUMOD during first 72 h of AP. Sixty-six adult patients with AP were recruited at the surgical ward of the District Hospital in Sucha Beskidzka, Poland. AP was diagnosed according to the Revised Atlanta Classification. Blood samples were collected at 24, 48 and 72 h of AP, and sUMOD concentrations were measured with enzyme-linked immunosorbent test. sUMOD decreased non-significantly during the study. Patients with severe AP had non-significantly lower sUMOD concentrations than those with mild disease. Significant positive correlation was observed between sUMOD and estimated glomerular filtration rate on each day of the study and negative correlations were shown between sUMOD and age, serum creatinine, cystatin C and urea. Patients with AKI tended to have lower sUMOD. Although sUMOD correlated significantly with kidney function in the early phase of AP, measuring sUMOD did not allow to reliably predict AP severity or development of AKI.

Serum C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lactate dehydrogenase for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis

BACKGROUND

The treatment of people with pancreatic necrosis differs from that of people with oedematous pancreatitis. It is important to know the diagnostic accuracy of serum C-reactive protein (CRP), serum procalcitonin, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as a triage test for the detection of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis, so that an informed decision can be made as to whether the person with pancreatic necrosis needs further investigations such as computed tomography (CT) scan or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan and treatment for pancreatic necrosis started. There is currently no standard clinical practice, although CRP, particularly an increasing trend of CRP, is often used as a triage test to determine whether the person requires further imaging. There is also currently no systematic review of the diagnostic test accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the diagnostic accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, or LDH (index test), either alone or in combination, in the diagnosis of necrotising pancreatitis in people with acute pancreatitis and without organ failure.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR HTA and DARE), and other databases until March 2017. We searched the references of the included studies to identify additional studies. We did not restrict studies based on language or publication status, or whether data were collected prospectively or retrospectively. We also performed a 'related search' and 'citing reference' search in MEDLINE and Embase.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all studies that evaluated the diagnostic test accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis using the following reference standards, either alone or in combination: radiological features of pancreatic necrosis (contrast-enhanced CT or MRI), surgeon's judgement of pancreatic necrosis during surgery, or histological confirmation of pancreatic necrosis. Had we found case-control studies, we planned to exclude them because they are prone to bias; however, we did not locate any. Two review authors independently identified the relevant studies from the retrieved references.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data, including methodological quality assessment, from the included studies. As the included studies reported CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH on different days of admission and measured at different cut-off levels, it was not possible to perform a meta-analysis using the bivariate model as planned. We have reported the sensitivity, specificity, post-test probability of a positive and negative index test along with 95% confidence interval (CI) on each of the different days of admission and measured at different cut-off levels.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of three studies including 242 participants met the inclusion criteria for this review. One study reported the diagnostic performance of CRP for two threshold levels (> 200 mg/L and > 279 mg/L) without stating the day on which the CRP was measured. One study reported the diagnostic performance of procalcitonin on day 1 (1 day after admission) using a threshold level of 0.5 ng/mL. One study reported the diagnostic performance of CRP on day 3 (3 days after admission) using a threshold level of 140 mg/L and LDH on day 5 (5 days after admission) using a threshold level of 290 U/L. The sensitivities and specificities varied: the point estimate of the sensitivities ranged from 0.72 to 0.88, while the point estimate of the specificities ranged from 0.75 to 1.00 for the different index tests on different days of hospital admission. However, the confidence intervals were wide: confidence intervals of sensitivities ranged from 0.51 to 0.97, while those of specificities ranged from 0.18 to 1.00 for the different tests on different days of hospital admission. Overall, none of the tests assessed in this review were sufficiently accurate to suggest that they could be useful in clinical practice.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The paucity of data and methodological deficiencies in the studies meant that it was not possible to arrive at any conclusions regarding the diagnostic test accuracy of the index test because of the uncertainty of the results. Further well-designed diagnostic test accuracy studies with prespecified index test thresholds of CRP, procalcitonin, LDH; appropriate follow-up (for at least two weeks to ensure that the person does not have pancreatic necrosis, as early scans may not indicate pancreatic necrosis); and clearly defined reference standards (of surgical or radiological confirmation of pancreatic necrosis) are important to reliably determine the diagnostic accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH.

Serum Soluble Fms-Like Tyrosine Kinase 1 (sFlt-1) Predicts the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Organ failure is the most important determinant of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). Soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) is positively associated with organ failure in sepsis. Our aim was to evaluate the diagnostic utility of automated sFlt-1 measurements for early prediction of AP severity. Adult patients (66) with AP were recruited, including 46 with mild (MAP), 15 with moderately-severe (MSAP) and 5 with severe AP (SAP). Serum and urine samples were collected twice. Serum sFlt-1 was measured with automated electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Serum concentrations of sFlt-1 were significantly higher in patients with MSAP and SAP as compared to MAP. SAP patients had the highest concentrations. At 24 and 48 h, sFlt-1 positively correlated with inflammatory markers (leukocyte count, C-reactive protein), kidney function (creatinine, urea, cystatin C, serum and urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, urine albumin/creatinine ratio), D-dimer and angiopoietin-2. sFlt-1 positively correlated with the bedside index of severity in AP (BISAP) score and the duration of hospital stay. Serum sFlt-1 above 139 pg/mL predicted more severe AP (MSAP + SAP). In the early phase of AP, sFlt-1 is positively associated with the severity of AP and predicts organ failure, in particular kidney failure. Serum sFlt-1 may be a practical way to improve early assessment of AP severity.

Predictive Capacity of Biomarkers for Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background: Early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) substantially improves treatment of patients. A large amount of biomarkers have been studied with this objective. The aim of this work was to study predictive biomarkers using preset cut-off levels in an unselected population of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods: 232 patients (52.2% males, median age 66 years) with AP admitted to Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, were consecutively enrolled. Blood samples were collected upon admission and clinical data were gathered both prospectively at inclusion and through review of medical notes. Cut-off levels were defined based on the reports of prior studies, and through their results eight biomarkers (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α, MCP-1, procalcitonin and D-dimer) were selected for analysis. Results: Of the patients, 83.2% had mild AP and 16.8% had SAP. Levels of IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-10 were significantly (p < 0.05) higher upon admission in the group with SAP. When applying the preset cut-off levels on our material, sensitivity and specificity for prediction of severity were low. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that selected cut-off levels were acceptable, but areas under the curves were inferior compared to other studies. The results did not improve when using the revised Atlanta 2012 classification. Conclusions: Previous studies on severity prediction of AP are difficult to compare due to large variations in setups and outcomes. Calculated cut-offs in our cohort were in acceptable range from preset levels, however areas under the curves were low, indicating suboptimal biomarkers for the unselected population investigated. For comparable results and possible clinical implementations, future studies need large consecutive series with a reasonable percentage of severe cases. Additionally, novel biomarkers need to be explored.

Laboratory markers predicting severity of acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease of highly variable severity, ranging from mild cases with low mortality to severe cases with high mortality. Numerous biomarkers have been studied as potential early predictors of the severity of this disease so that treatment can be optimally tailored to prevent complications. We aim to present and discuss the most relevant biomarkers for early severity assessment in AP that have been studied to date. We review the current literature on biomarkers that have been used to predict the severity in AP. C-reactive protein (CRP) is still considered to be the gold standard, with a cut-off value of 150 mg/ml 48 h after disease onset. Other markers, including procalcitonin (PCT) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) have been implemented in some hospitals, but are not used on a routine basis. Most other markers, including acute phase proteins (LBP, SAA, PTX3), cytokines (Il-8, TNF-a, MIF), activation peptides of pancreatic proteases (TAP, CAPAP, PLAP), antiproteases (AAT, a2M), adhesion molecules (ICAM-1, selectins, E-cadherin) and leukocyte-derived enzymes (PA2, PMN-E) have shown some promising results but have not been routinely implemented. Furthermore, new and interesting biomarkers (Copeptin, TRX-1, Ang-2, E-2) have shown good results, but more research is needed to determine if they could play a role in the future. Various reasons why new markers for disease severity have not been adopted in daily routine include low accuracy, cumbersome laboratory techniques and high cost. Despite these difficulties, research is still very active in finding new markers to predict the severity of AP.

Resistin is not an appropriate biochemical marker to predict severity of acute pancreatitis: A case-controlled study

AIM: To assess levels of serum resistin upon hospital admission as a predictor of acute pancreatitis (AP) severity.

METHODS: AP is both a common and serious disease, with severe cases resulting in a high mortality rate. Several predictive inflammatory markers have been used clinically to assess severity. This prospective study collected data from 102 patients who were diagnosed with an initial acute biliary pancreatitis between March 2010 and February 2013. Measurements of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were obtained and serum resistin levels were analyzed at the time of hospital admission using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Additionally, resistin levels were measured from a control group after matching gender, BMI and age.

RESULTS: A total of 102 patients (60 females and 42 males) were diagnosed with acute gallstone-induced pancreatitis. The mean age was 45 years, and mean BMI value was 30.5 kg/m² (Obese, class I). Twenty-two patients (21.6%) had severe AP, while eighty-eight patients had mild pancreatitis (78.4%). Our results showed that BMI significantly correlated with pancreatitis severity (P = 0.007). Serum resistin did not correlate with BMI, weight or WC. Furthermore, serum resistin was significantly higher in patients with AP compared to control subjects (P < 0.0001). The mean resistin values upon admission were 17.5 ng/mL in the severe acute biliary pancreatitis group and 16.82 ng/mL in the mild AP group (P = 0.188), indicating that resistin is not an appropriate predictive marker of clinical severity.

CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that obesity is a risk factor for developing severe AP. Further, although there is a correlation between serum resistin levels and AP at the time of hospital admission, resistin does not adequately serve as a predictive marker of clinical severity.

From moderately severe to severe hypertriglyceridemia induced acute pancreatitis: circulating miRNAs play role as potential biomarkers

The incidence of hypertriglyceridemia induced acute pancreatitis (HTAP) continues to rise in China. It has systemic complications and high mortality, making the early assessment of the severity of this disease even more important. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) could be novel, non-invasive biomarkers for disease progression judgment. This study aimed to identify the potential role of serum miRNAs as novel biomarkers of HTAP progression. HTAP patients were divided into two groups: moderately severe (HTMSAP) and severe (HTSAP), healthy people were used as control group. The serum miRNA expression profiles of these three groups were determined by microarray and verified by qRT-PCR. The functions and pathways of the targeted genes of deregulated miRNAs were predicted, using bioinformatics analysis; miRNA-mRNA network was generated. Moreover, the correlation between miR-181a-5p and pancreatitis metabolism related substances were studied and the serum concentration of inflammatory cytokines and miRNAs at different time points during the MSAP and SAP were investigated, respectively. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of miRNAs was studied. Significant changes in the serum concentration of the following miRNAs of HTAP patients (P<0.05) were discovered: miR24-3p, 361-5p, 1246, and 222-3p (constantly upregulated), and 181a-5p (constantly downregulated) (P<0.05). Bioinformatics analysis predicted that 13 GOs and 36 pathways regulated by overlap miRNAs were involved in glucose, fat, calcium (Ca++), and insulin metabolism (P<0.001). miRNA-mRNA network revealed that the overlap miRNAs targeted genes participating in pancreas metabolism and miR-181a-5p, the only downregulated miRNA, had good negative correlation with triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), and fast blood glucose (FBG), but a positive correlation with Ca++. When compared with inflammatory cytokines, the changes of all five overlap miRNAs were more stable. It was found that when used for evaluating the progression of HTAP, miRNAs showed good AUC. These data suggested that serum miRNAs have the potential to be excellent HTAP biomarkers.

Diagnostic accuracy of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin in the early detection of infection after elective colorectal surgery - a pilot study

Background

Colorectal surgery is associated with postoperative infectious complications in up to 40% of cases, but the diagnosis of these complications is frequently misleading, delaying its resolution. Several biomarkers have been shown to be useful in infection diagnosis.

Methods

We conducted a single-centre, prospective, observational study segregating patients submitted to elective colorectal surgery with primary anastomosis, CRP and PCT were measured daily. We compared infected and non-infected patients.

Results

From October 2009 to June 2011, a total of 50 patients were included. Twenty-one patients developed infection. PCT and CRP before surgery were equally low in patients with or without postoperative infectious complications. After surgery, both PCT and CRP increased markedly. CRP time-course from the day of surgery onwards was significantly different in infected and non-infected patients (P = 0.001) whereas, PCT time-course was almost parallel in both groups (P = 0.866). Multiple comparisons between infected and non-infected patients from 5^th to 9^th postoperative days (POD) were performed and CRP concentration was significantly different (P < 0.01, Bonferroni correction), on the 6^th, 7^th and 8^th POD. A CRP concentration > 5.0 mg/dl at the D6 was predictive of infection with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 62% (positive likelihood ratio 2.2, negative likelihood ratio 0.2).

Conclusions

After a major elective surgical insult both CRP and PCT serum levels increased independently of the presence of infection. Besides serum CRP time-course showed to be useful in the early detection of an infectious complication whereas PCT was unhelpful.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-444) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Serum procalcitonin measurement for detection of biliary infection in patients with biliary tract obstruction

AIM: To prospectively evaluate procalcitonin (PCT) as a marker for the detection of biliary tract infection in patients with biliary tract obstruction.

METHODS: Forty-five patients were divided into two groups based on results of bile cultivation. Blood samples were collected for measuring PCT, CRP, and WBC when patients were admitted.

RESULTS: Of the 45 patients, 14 had biliary tract infection and 31 did not have. PCT level was significantly higher in the culture positive group (7.15 ng/L ± 10.06 ng/L) as compared to the culture negative group (0.29 ng/L ± 0.38 ng/L) (P < 0.05), while there were no statistical significances in CRP and WBC between the two groups.

CONCLUSION: This study showed that PCT could be used as a marker to detect biliary tract infection promptly.

[Total serum calcium and corrected calcium as severity predictors in acute pancreatitis]

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate total serum calcium (TC) and albumin-corrected calcium (ACC) as prognostic severity factors in acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

Ninety-six patients were included in the study. They were diagnosed with AP and admitted to the Hospital Regional de Veracruz within the time frame of January 2010 to December 2012. AP severity was determined through the updated Atlanta Classification (2013). TC and ACC values were measured in the first 24hours of admittance and the percentages of sensitivity (S), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) were calculated through ROC curves and contingency tables.

RESULTS

In accordance with the updated Atlanta Classification, 70 patients presented with mild AP, 17 with moderately severe AP, and 9 with severe AP. Of the patient total, 61.5% were women, and 69.8% presented with biliary etiology. The maximum TC cut-off point was 7.5mg/dL, with values of S, 67%; Sp, 82%; PPV, 27%, and NPV, 96%. The maximum ACC cut-off point was 7.5mg/dL, with values of S, 67%; Sp, 90%; PPV, 40%; NPV, 96%. Both had values similar to those of the Ranson and APACHE II prognostic scales.

CONCLUSIONS

TC and ACC, measured within the first 24hours, are useful severity predictors in acute pancreatitis, with sensitivity and predictive values comparable or superior to those of the conventional prognostic scales.

A comparison of the BISAP score and serum procalcitonin for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) is a new, convenient, prognostic multifactorial scoring system. As more data are needed before clinical application, we compared BISAP, the serum procalcitonin (PCT), and other multifactorial scoring systems simultaneously.

METHODS

Fifty consecutive acute pancreatitis patients were enrolled prospectively. Blood samples were obtained at admission and after 48 hours and imaging studies were performed within 48 hours of admission. The BISAP score was compared with the serum PCT, Ranson's score, and the acute physiology and chronic health examination (APACHE)-II, Glasgow, and Balthazar computed tomography severity index (BCTSI) scores. Acute pancreatitis was graded using the Atlanta criteria. The predictive accuracy of the scoring systems was measured using the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC).

RESULTS

The accuracy of BISAP (≥ 2) at predicting severe acute pancreatitis was 84% and was superior to the serum PCT (≥ 3.29 ng/mL, 76%) which was similar to the APACHE-II score. The best cutoff value of BISAP was 2 (AUC, 0.873; 95% confidence interval, 0.770 to 0.976; p < 0.001). In logistic regression analysis, BISAP had greater statistical significance than serum PCT.

CONCLUSIONS

BISAP is more accurate for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis than the serum PCT, APACHE-II, Glasgow, and BCTSI scores.

Comparison of serum procalcitonin with Ranson, APACHE-II, Glasgow and Balthazar CT severity index scores in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The aim of this study is to assess serum procalcitonin (PCT) for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis compared with multiple scoring systems and biomarkers.

METHODS

Forty-four patients with acute pancreatitis confirmed by radiological evidences, laboratory assessments, and clinical manifestation were prospectively enrolled. All blood samples and image studies were obtained within 24 hours of admission.

RESULTS

Acute pancreatitis was graded as severe in 19 patients and mild in 25 patients according to the Atlanta criteria. Levels of serum PCT were significantly higher in severe acute pancreatitis (p=0.001). The accuracy of serum PCT as a predicting marker was 77.3%, which was similar to the acute physiology and chronic health examination (APACHE)-II score, worse than the Ranson score (93.2%) and better than the Balthazar CT index (65.9%). The most effective cut-off level of serum PCT was estimated at 1.77 ng/mL (AUC=0.797, 95% CI=0.658-0.935). In comparision to other simple biomarkers, serum PCT had more accurate value (77.3%) than C-reactive protein (68.2%), urea (75.0%) and lactic dehydrogenase (72.7%). Logistic regression analysis revealed that serum PCT has statistical significance in acute severe pancreatitis. Assessment of serum PCT levels and length of hospital stay by simple linear regression analysis revealed effective p-value with low R square level, which could make only possibilty for affection of serum PCT to admission duration (r2=0.127, p=0.021).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum PCT was a promising simple biomarker and had similar accuracy of APACHE-II scores as predicting severity of acute pancreatitis.

Procalcitonin for diagnosis of infection and guide to antibiotic decisions: past, present and future

There are a number of limitations to using conventional diagnostic markers for patients with clinical suspicion of infection. As a consequence, unnecessary and prolonged exposure to antimicrobial agents adversely affect patient outcomes, while inappropriate antibiotic therapy increases antibiotic resistance. A growing body of evidence supports the use of procalcitonin (PCT) to improve diagnosis of bacterial infections and to guide antibiotic therapy. For patients with upper and lower respiratory tract infection, post-operative infections and for severe sepsis patients in the intensive care unit, randomized-controlled trials have shown a benefit of using PCT algorithms to guide decisions about initiation and/or discontinuation of antibiotic therapy. For some other types of infections, observational studies have shown promising first results, but further intervention studies are needed before use of PCT in clinical routine can be recommended. The aim of this review is to summarize the current evidence for PCT in different infections and clinical settings, and discuss the reliability of this marker when used with validated diagnostic algorithms.

Scoring systems in acute pancreatitis: which one to use in intensive care units?

PURPOSE

The aim of the study was to assess and compare the efficacy of various scoring systems in predicting the severity and outcome of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) admitted in intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

Prospective, single institution review of 55 consecutive AP patients admitted in ICU during a 2-year period. Disease severity scores and mortality predictions were calculated using the collected data in the first 48 hours of ICU admission for Ranson and Glasgow scores and in the first 24 hours for other scores.

RESULTS

Forty-two patients (76.4%) developed severe pancreatitis. Intensive care unit and 30-day mortality was 18.2% and 27.3%, respectively. Use of mechanical ventilation (MV) was an independent predictor of outcome on multivariate analysis with lack of MV being protective (adjusted odds ratio, 0.003; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.00001-0.67; P = .04). All scoring systems had comparable accuracy in predicting severity and 30-day mortality, but sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score had greater efficacy with its area under curve for predicting severity and 30-day mortality being 0.81 (95% CI, 0.69-0.92) and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.85-0.99), respectively. Sensitivity and specificity (SOFA score, >4) was 76.2% and 69.2%, respectively, for predicting severity, and sensitivity and specificity (SOFA score, >8) was 86.7% and 90%, respectively, for predicting 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of MV is an independent predictor of outcome in AP patients admitted to ICU. Although all scoring systems had reliable accuracy in predicting severity and outcome, SOFA score performed better with additional advantages of easy applicability and timely assessment.