What Makes A "Successful" Kasai Portoenterostomy "Unsuccessful"?

Biliary atresia

Biliary atresia (BA) is a progressive inflammatory fibrosclerosing disease of the biliary system and a major cause of neonatal cholestasis. It affects 1:5,000-20,000 live births, with the highest incidence in Asia. The pathogenesis is still unknown, but emerging research suggests a role for ciliary dysfunction, redox stress and hypoxia. The study of the underlying mechanisms can be conceptualized along the likely prenatal timing of an initial insult and the distinction between the injury and prenatal and postnatal responses to injury. Although still speculative, these emerging concepts, new diagnostic tools and early diagnosis might enable neoadjuvant therapy (possibly aimed at oxidative stress) before a Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE). This is particularly important, as timely KPE restores bile flow in only 50-75% of patients of whom many subsequently develop cholangitis, portal hypertension and progressive fibrosis; 60-75% of patients require liver transplantation by the age of 18 years. Early diagnosis, multidisciplinary management, centralization of surgery and optimized interventions for complications after KPE lead to better survival. Postoperative corticosteroid use has shown benefits, whereas the role of other adjuvant therapies remains to be evaluated. Continued research to better understand disease mechanisms is necessary to develop innovative treatments, including adjuvant therapies targeting the immune response, regenerative medicine approaches and new clinical tests to improve patient outcomes.

A convenient nomogram for predicting early death or liver transplantation after the Kasai procedure in patients with biliary atresia

PURPOSE

Many patients with biliary atresia (BA) after the Kasai procedure (KP) progress to death or require liver transplantation to achieve long-term survival; however, most cases of death/liver transplantation (D/LT) occur in the early period after KP (usually within 1 year). This study was designed to construct a convenient nomogram for predicting early D/LT in patients with BA after KP.

METHODS

A BA cohort was established in May 2017, and up to May 2023, 112 patients with 1-5 years of follow-up were enrolled in the study and randomly (ratio, 3:1) divided into a training cohort for constructing a nomogram (n = 84) and a validation cohort (n = 28) for externally validating the discrimination and calibration. The training cohort was divided into two groups: the early D/LT group (patients who died or had undergone LT within 1 year after KP [n = 35]) and the control group (patients who survived through the native liver more than 1 year after KP [n = 49]). Multivariate logistic regression and stepwise regression were applied to detect variables with the best predictive ability for the construction of the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were internally and externally validated.

RESULTS

The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve showed an actual 1-year native liver transplantation (NLS) rate of 57.1% and an estimated 2-year NLS rate of 55.2%. By multivariate regression and stepwise regression, age at KP, jaundice clearance (JC) speed 1 month after KP, early-onset PC (initial time < 36.5 days) after KP, sex, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and weight at KP were identified as the independent variables with the best ability to predict early D/LT and were used to construct a nomogram. The developed nomogram based on these independent variables showed relatively good discrimination and calibration according to internal and external validation.

CONCLUSION

Most D/LTs were early D/LTs that occurred within 1 year after KP. The established nomogram based on predictors, including sex, weight at the KP, the APRI, age at the KP, JC speed 1 month after the KP, and early PC, may be useful for predicting early D/LT and may be helpful for counseling BA patients about patient prognosis after KP. This study was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05909033) in June 2023.