Estimated Impact of Screening on Gonorrhea Epidemiology in the United States: Insights From a Mathematical Model

Effects of doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis for prevention of sexually transmitted infections on gonorrhoea prevalence and antimicrobial resistance among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) has been shown to be efficacious for the prevention of bacterial sexually transmitted infections, but resistance implications for Neisseria gonorrhoeae remain unknown. We aimed to use a mathematical model to investigate the anticipated impact of doxycycline PEP on the burden of gonorrhoea and antimicrobial resistance dynamics in men who have sex with men (MSM) in the USA.

METHODS

Using a deterministic compartmental model, characterising gonorrhoea transmission in a US MSM population comprising three sexual activity groups defined by annual partner turnover rates, we introduced doxycycline PEP at various uptake levels (10-90%) among those with high sexual activity. Infections were stratified by symptom status and resistance profile (ie, susceptible, ceftriaxone-resistant, tetracycline-resistant, or dual-resistant), with ceftriaxone the treatment for active infection. As resistance to tetracycline, not doxycycline, is monitored and reported nationally, we used this as a proxy for doxycycline PEP resistance. We compared the 20-year prevalence, incidence rates, and cumulative incidence of gonococcal infection, resistance dynamics (time to 5% prevalence of ceftriaxone resistance, 5% prevalence of dual resistance, and 84% prevalence of tetracycline resistance), and antibiotic consumption with baseline (ie, no doxycycline PEP).

FINDINGS

Uptake of doxycycline PEP resulted in substantial reductions in the prevalence and incidence of gonorrhoea, but accelerated the spread of tetracycline resistance. The maximum reduction in prevalence over 20 years compared with no uptake ranged from 40·3% (IQR 15·3-83·4) with 10% doxycycline PEP uptake to 77·4% (68·4-84·9) with 90% uptake. Similarly, the maximum reduction in the incidence rate ranged from 38·6% (14·1-83·6) with 10% uptake to 77·6% (68·1-84·7) with 90% uptake. Cumulative gonococcal infections were reduced by a median of 14·5% (IQR 8·4-21·6) with 10% uptake and up to 46·2% (26·5-59·9) with 90% uptake after 5 years, and by 6·5% (3·4-13·0) with 10% uptake and 8·7% (4·3-36·2) with 90% uptake by 20 years. In almost all scenarios explored, doxycycline PEP lost clinical effectiveness (defined as 84% prevalence of tetracycline resistance) within the 20-year period, but its lifespan ranged from a median of 12·1 years (IQR 9·9-15·7) with 10% uptake to 1·6 years (1·3-1·9) with 90% uptake. Doxycycline PEP implementation had minimal impact on extending the clinical lifespan of ceftriaxone monotherapy (5·0 years [IQR 4·0-6·2]), with the median time to 5% prevalence of resistance ranging from 4·8 years (3·9-6·0) for 90% uptake to 5·0 years (4·1-6·2) for 10% uptake. Similarly, the median time to 5% prevalence of dual resistance to ceftriaxone and tetracycline ranged from 4·8 years (3·9-6·0) for 90% uptake to 5·8 years (4·8-7·4) for 10% uptake. Median decrease in ceftriaxone consumption for high doxycycline PEP uptake levels compared with baseline ranged from 41·7% (27·0-54·3) for 50% uptake to 50·2% (29·3-62·7) for 90% uptake at 5 years, but dropped to 11·8% (6·9-32·0) for 50% uptake and 12·1% (7·0-41·6) for 90% uptake after 20 years.

INTERPRETATION

Notwithstanding the clear benefits of doxycycline PEP for other sexually transmitted infections, for N gonorrhoeae, model findings suggest that doxycycline PEP is an effective but impermanent solution for reducing infection burden, given eventual selection for resistant strains. This finding presents a challenge for policy makers considering strategies for doxycycline PEP implementation and oversight: the need to balance the clear, short-term clinical benefits with the risk of harm via antimicrobial resistance.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Impact of varying pre-exposure prophylaxis programs on HIV and Neisseria gonorrhoeae transmission among MSM in the Netherlands: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

In 2019, a five-year pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program started in the Netherlands, in which up to 8,500 men who have sex with men (MSM) can obtain PrEP and 3-monthly consultations with HIV/STI testing.

SETTING

We assessed the impact of the PrEP program on transmission of HIV and Neisseria gonorrhea (NG) among MSM in the Netherlands and examined prospective variations of the program after 2024.

METHODS

We used an agent-based model to estimate the effect of the PrEP program. For prospective PrEP programs from 2024, we varied the capacity (8,500; 12,000; 16,000 participants) and consultation frequency (3-monthly; 6-monthly; 70% 3-monthly and 30% 6-monthly) for t.

RESULTS

At a capacity of 8,500 participants and 3-monthly consultations, the PrEP program could lead to 3,140 (95%CrI 1,780 - 4,780) and 27,930 (95%CrI 14,560 - 46,280) averted HIV and NG infections; requiring 316,050 (95%CrI 314,120 - 317,580) consultations. At a capacity of 16,000 participants the programs with 3-monthly consultations and 6-monthly consultations could lead to comparable numbers of averted HIV (3,940 (95%CrI 2,420 - 5,460), and 3,900 (2,320 - 5,630) respectively) and NG infections (29,970 (95%CrI 15,490 - 50,350), and 29,960 (95%CrI 13,610 - 50,620) respectively), while requiring substantially different numbers of consultations: 589,330 (95%CrI 586,240 - 591,160) and 272,590 (95%CrI 271,770 - 273,290) respectively.

CONCLUSION

Continuation of a PrEP program could lead to a substantial reduction in HIV and NG transmission. More infections could be averted if the number of participants is increased. In turn, the consultations frequency could be reduced without reducing the number of averted infections if capacity is increased.

Epidemiological impact of Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis screening in men having sex with men: a modelling study

OBJECTIVES

The impact of the systematic screening of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) in men having sex with men (MSM) on these pathogens' epidemiology remains unclear. We conducted a modelling study to analyse this impact in French MSM.

METHODS

We modelled NG and CT transmission using a site-specific deterministic compartmental model. We calibrated NG and CT prevalence at baseline using results from MSM enrolled in the Dat'AIDS cohort. The baseline scenario was based on 1 million MSM, 40 000 of whom were tested every 90 days and 960 000 every 200 days. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) at steady state were simulated for NG, CT, NG and/or CT infections, for different combinations of tested sites, testing frequency and numbers of frequently tested patients.

RESULTS

The observed prevalence rate was 11.0%, 10.5% and 19.1% for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. The baseline incidence rate was estimated at 138.2 per year per 100 individuals (/100PY), 86.8/100PY and 225.0/100PY for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. Systematically testing anal, pharyngeal and urethral sites at the same time reduced incidence by 14%, 23% and 18% (IRR: 0.86, 0.77 and 0.82) for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. Reducing the screening interval to 60 days in frequently tested patients reduced incidence by 20%, 29% and 24% (IRR: 0.80, 0.71 and 0.76) for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. Increasing the number of frequently tested patients to 200 000 reduced incidence by 29%, 40% and 33% (IRR: 0.71, 0.60 and 0.67) for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. No realistic scenario could decrease pathogens' incidence by more than 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

To curb the epidemic of NG and CT in MSM, it would not only be necessary to drastically increase screening, but also to add other combined interventions.

Estimating Partnership Duration among MSM in Belgium-A Modeling Study

Mathematical modeling is widely used for describing infection transmission and evaluating interventions. The lack of reliable social parameters in the literature has been mentioned by many modeling studies, leading to limitations in the validity and interpretation of the results. Using data from the European MSM Internet survey 2017, we developed a network model to describe sex acts among MSM in Belgium. The model simulates daily sex acts among steady, persistent casual and one-off partners in a population of 10,000 MSM, grouped as low- or high-activity by using three different definitions. Model calibration was used to estimate partnership duration and homophily rates to match the distribution of cumulative sex partners over 12 months. We estimated an average duration between 1065 and 1409 days for steady partnerships, 4-6 and 251-299 days for assortative high- and low-activity individuals and 8-13 days for disassortative persistent casual partnerships, respectively, varying across the three definitions. High-quality data on social network and behavioral parameters are scarce in the literature. Our study addresses this lack of information by providing a method to estimate crucial parameters for network specification.

Resistance-minimising strategies for introducing a novel antibiotic for gonorrhoea treatment: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Gonorrhoea is a highly prevalent sexually transmitted infection and an urgent public health concern because of increasing antibiotic resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Only ceftriaxone remains as the recommended treatment in the USA. With the prospect of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics being approved, we aimed to evaluate how to deploy a new drug to maximise its clinically useful lifespan.

METHODS

We used a compartmental model of gonorrhoea transmission in a US population of men who have sex with men (MSM) to compare strategies for introducing a new antibiotic for gonorrhoea treatment. The MSM population was stratified into three sexual activity groups (low, intermediate, and high) characterised by annual rates of partner change. The four introduction strategies tested were: (1) random 50-50 allocation, where each treatment-seeking infected individual had a 50% probability of receiving either drug A (current drug; a ceftriaxone-like antibiotic) or drug B (a new antibiotic), effective at time 0; (2) combination therapy of both the current drug and the new antibiotic; (3) reserve strategy, by which the new antibiotic was held in reserve until the current therapy reached a 5% threshold prevalence of resistance; and (4) gradual switch, or the gradual introduction of the new drug until random 50-50 allocation was reached. The primary outcome of interest was the time until 5% prevalence of resistance to each of the drugs (the new drug and the current ceftriaxone-like antibiotic); sensitivity of the primary outcome to the properties of the new antibiotic, specifically the probability of resistance emergence after treatment and the fitness costs of resistance, was explored. Secondary outcomes included the time to a 1% resistance threshold for each drug, as well as population-level prevalence, mean and range annual incidence, and the cumulative number of incident gonococcal infections.

FINDINGS

Under baseline model conditions, a 5% prevalence of resistance to each of drugs A and B was reached within 13·9 years with the reserve strategy, 18·2 years with the gradual switch strategy, 19·2 years with the random 50-50 allocation strategy, and 19·9 years with the combination therapy strategy. The reserve strategy was consistently inferior for mitigating antibiotic resistance under the parameter space explored and was increasingly outperformed by the other strategies as the probability of de novo resistance emergence decreased and as the fitness costs associated with resistance increased. Combination therapy tended to prolong the development of antibiotic resistance and minimise the number of annual gonococcal infections (under baseline model conditions, mean number of incident infections per year 178 641 [range 177 998-181 731] with combination therapy, 180 084 [178 011-184 405] with the reserve strategy).

INTERPRETATION

Our study argues for rapid introduction of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics, recognising that the feasibility of each strategy must incorporate cost, safety, and other practical concerns. The analyses should be revisited once robust estimates of key parameters-ie, the likelihood of emergence of resistance and fitness costs of resistance for the new antibiotic-are available.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Estimated Incidence and Prevalence of Gonorrhea in the United States, 2006-2019

BACKGROUND

We extend recent work estimating incidence and prevalence of gonococcal infections among men and women aged 15 to 39 years in the United States in 2018 by applying the same modeling framework to estimate gonococcal incidence and prevalence during 2006 to 2019.

METHODS

The model is informed by cases from the Nationally Notifiable Disease Surveillance System, data from the National Survey of Family Growth, and data on other factors known to impact gonococcal incidence and prevalence. We use Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertainty in input parameters. Results are reported as median annual per-capita incidence and prevalence; uncertainty intervals are characterized by the 25th and 75th simulated percentiles.

RESULTS

There were 1,603,473 (1,467,801-1,767,779) incident cases of gonorrhea estimated in 2019. Per-capita incidence increased 32%, from 1101 (1002-1221) to 1456 (1333-1605) infections per 100,000 persons. This trend in per-capita incidence had 3 phrases: an initial decline during 2006 to 2009, a plateau through 2013, and a rapid increase of 66% through 2019. Men aged 25 to 39 years experienced the greatest increase in incidence (125%, 541 [467-651] to 1212 infections [1046-1458] per 100,000 men). Women aged 25 to 39 years had the lowest incidence in 2019, with 1040 infections (882-1241) per 100,000 women. Prevalence increased more slowly among those aged 25 to 39 years versus 15 to 24 years. The incidence ratio comparing men with women aged 25 to 39 years increased from 0.76 to 1.18.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of gonorrhea has increased among men and women aged 15 to 39 years since 2013. An increasing proportion of incident infections are among men. Additional biomedical and behavioral interventions are needed to control gonococcal transmission.

Resistance-minimizing strategies for introducing a novel antibiotic for gonorrhea treatment: a mathematical modeling study

Background

Gonorrhea is a highly prevalent sexually transmitted infection and an urgent public health concern due to increasing antibiotic resistance. Only ceftriaxone remains as the recommended treatment in the U.S. The prospect of approval of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics raises the question of how to deploy a new drug to maximize its clinically useful lifespan.

Methods

We used a compartmental model of gonorrhea transmission in the U.S. population of men who have sex with men to compare strategies for introducing a new antibiotic for gonorrhea treatment. The strategies tested included holding the new antibiotic in reserve until the current therapy reached a threshold prevalence of resistance; using either drug, considering immediate and gradual introduction of the new drug; and combination therapy. The primary outcome of interest was the time until 5% prevalence of resistance to both the novel drug and to the current first-line drug (ceftriaxone).

Findings

The reserve strategy was consistently inferior for mitigating antibiotic resistance under the parameter space explored. The reserve strategy was increasingly outperformed by the other strategies as the probability of de novo resistance emergence decreased and as the fitness costs associated with resistance increased. Combination therapy tended to prolong the development of antibiotic resistance and minimize the number of annual gonococcal infections.

Interpretation

Our study argues for rapid introduction of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics, recognizing that the feasibility of each strategy must incorporate cost, safety, and other practical concerns. The analyses should be revisited once robust estimates of key parameters-likelihood of emergence of resistance and fitness costs of resistance for the new antibiotic-are available.

Funding

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years lost due to N. gonorrhoeae infections acquired in 2015 in the United States: A modelling study of overall burden and disparities by age, race/ethnicity, and other factors

Background

Disparities in the health and economic burden of gonorrhoea have not been systematically quantified. We estimated population-level health losses and costs associated with gonococcal infection and sequelae in the United States.

Methods

We used probability-tree models to capture gonorrhoea sequelae and to estimate attributable disease burden in terms of the discounted lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost due to incident infections acquired during 2015 from the healthcare system perspective. Numbers of infections in 2015 were obtained from a published gonorrhoea transmission model. We evaluated population-level disease burden, disaggregated by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and for men who have sex with men (MSM). We conducted a multivariate sensitivity analysis for key parameters.

Findings

Discounted lifetime QALYs lost per incident gonococcal infection were estimated as 0.093 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0.022-0.22) for women, 0.0020 (0.0015-0.0024) for heterosexual men, and 0.0015 (0.00070-0.0021) for MSM. Discounted lifetime costs per incident infection were USD 261 (109-480), 169 (88-263), and 133 (50-239), respectively. At the population level, total discounted lifetime QALYs lost due to infections acquired during 2015 were 53,293 (12,326-125,366) for women, 621 (430-872) for heterosexual men, and 1,078 (427-1,870) for MSM. Total discounted lifetime costs were USD 150 million (64-277 million), 54 million (25-92 million), and 97 million (34-197 million), respectively. The highest total burden of both QALYs and costs at the population-level was observed in Non-Hispanic Black women, and highest burden per 1,000 person-years was identified in MSM among men and American Indian/Alaska Native among women.

Interpretation

Gonorrhoea causes substantial health losses and costs in the United States. These results can inform planning and prioritization of prevention services.

Funding

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Charles A. King Trust.

High syphilis prevalence and incidence in people living with HIV and Preexposure Prophylaxis users: A retrospective review in the French Dat’AIDS cohort

Background

In the past years, we observed a sharp increase of Syphilis, especially among male who have sex with male (MSM), either HIV-infected, or on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Our aim was to assess syphilis prevalence and incidence among people living with HIV (PLWH) and PrEP users.

Methods

PLWH were included from 2010 to 2020 and PrEP users from 2016 to 2020 from the Dat’AIDS French cohort. We calculated syphilis prevalence and incidences for first infections, re-infections, and iterative infections (> 2 times). T-Tests, Wilcoxon tests and Chi2 test were used for descriptive analysis and multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for factors associated with syphilis.

Results

Among the 8 583 PLWH, prevalence of subject with past or present syphilis was 19.9%. These subjects were more likely MSM or transgender and aged over 35 years, but prevalence was lower in AIDS subjects. Same pattern was seen for incident infection and re-infection. Incidence was 3.8 per 100 person-years for infection and 6.5 per 100 person-years for re-infection. Among 1 680 PrEP users, syphilis prevalence was 25.8%, with an estimated 7.2% frequency of active syphilis. Risk of syphilis infection was higher in male and increased with age. Incidence was 11.2 per 100 person-years for infection and 11.1 per 100 person-years for re-infection.

Conclusion

Syphilis prevalence and incidence were high, especially in older MSM with controlled HIV infection and PrEP users, enhancing the need to improve syphilis screening and behavioral risk reduction counseling among high-risk subjects.

The Potential Population-Level Impact of Different Gonorrhea Screening Strategies in Baltimore and San Francisco: An Exploratory Mathematical Modeling Analysis

BACKGROUND

Baltimore and San Francisco represent high burden areas for gonorrhea in the United States. We explored different gonorrhea screening strategies and their comparative impact in the 2 cities.

METHODS

We used a compartmental transmission model of gonorrhea stratified by sex, sexual orientation, age, and race/ethnicity, calibrated to city-level surveillance data for 2010 to 2017. We analyzed the benefits of 5-year interventions which improved retention in care cascade or increased screening from current levels. We also examined a 1-year outreach screening intervention of high-activity populations.

RESULTS

In Baltimore, annual screening of population aged 15 to 24 years was the most efficient of the 5-year interventions with 17.9 additional screening tests (95% credible interval [CrI], 11.8-31.4) needed per infection averted while twice annual screening of the same population averted the most infections (5.4%; 95% CrI, 3.1-8.2%) overall with 25.3 (95% CrI, 19.4-33.4) tests per infection averted. In San Francisco, quarter-annual screening of all men who have sex with men was the most efficient with 16.2 additional (95% CrI, 12.5-44.5) tests needed per infection averted, and it also averted the most infections (10.8%; 95% CrI, 1.2-17.8%). Interventions that reduce loss to follow-up after diagnosis improved outcomes. Depending on the ability of a short-term outreach screening to screen populations at higher acquisition risk, such interventions can offer efficient ways to expand screening coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

Data on gonorrhea prevalence distribution and time trends locally would improve the analyses. More focused intervention strategies could increase the impact and efficiency of screening interventions.

Impact of frequent testing on the transmission of HIV and N. gonorrhoeae among men who have sex with men: a mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the impact and efficiency of combined testing for HIV and other STIs on HIV and STI transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) and to assess what subgroups of MSM should be targeted for frequent testing.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based transmission model that simulates infection with HIV or Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) among MSM. We examined scenarios with increased percentages of MSM getting tested six monthly, among all MSM or only specific subgroups of MSM (defined according to recent gonorrhoea, number of partners and engagement in condomless anal intercourse (CAI)) and scenarios with reduced intervals between HIV/STI tests.

RESULTS

The most efficient strategies were those with increased percentage of MSM getting tested every 6 months among MSM with a recent gonorrhoea diagnosis; or among MSM who had CAI and ≥10 partners; or MSM who had ≥10 partners. Over 10 years, these strategies resulted in 387-718 averted HIV infections and required 29-164 additional HIV tests per averted HIV infection or one to seven additional gonorrhoea tests per averted NG infection. The most effective strategy in reducing HIV transmission was the one where the intervals between tests were reduced by half, followed by the strategy with increased percentage of MSM getting tested every 6 months among all MSM. Over 10 years, these strategies resulted in 1362 and 1319 averted HIV infections, but required 663 and 584 additional HIV tests per averted HIV infection, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting MSM with recent gonorrhoea diagnosis or MSM with many partners is efficient in terms of HIV/STI tests needed to prevent new HIV or NG infections. Major reductions in HIV incidence can be achieved with consistent HIV/STI testing every 6 months among larger groups, including low-risk MSM. To impede HIV transmission, frequent testing should be combined with other prevention measures.

Ethnic variations in sexual partnerships and mixing, and their association with STI diagnosis: findings from a cross-sectional biobehavioural survey of attendees of sexual health clinics across England

OBJECTIVES

Ethnic differences in partnership types and sexual mixing patterns may contribute to elevated STI diagnosis rates among England's Black Caribbean (BC) population. We examined the differences between BC and White British/Irish (WBI) sexual health clinic (SHC) attendees' reported partnerships and sexual mixing, and whether these differences could explain ethnic inequalities in STI, focusing on attendees reporting only opposite-sex partners (past year).

METHODS

We surveyed attendees at 16 SHCs across England (May to September 2016), and linked their survey responses to routinely collected data on diagnoses of bacterial STI or trichomoniasis ±6 weeks of clinic attendance ('acute STI'). Behaviourally-heterosexual BC and WBI attendees (n=1790) reported details about their ≤3 most recent opposite-sex partners (past 3 months, n=2503). We compared BC and WBI attendees' reported partnerships and mixing, in gender-stratified analyses, and used multivariable logistic regression to examine whether they independently explained differences in acute STI.

RESULTS

We observed differences by ethnic group. BC women's partnerships were more likely than WBI women's partnerships to involve age-mixing (≥5 years age difference; 31.6% vs 25.5% partnerships, p=0.013); BC men's partnerships were more often 'uncommitted regular' (35.4% vs 20.7%) and less often casual (38.5% vs 53.1%) than WBI men's partnerships (p<0.001). Acute STI was higher among BC women than WBI women (OR: 2.29, 95% CI 1.24 to 4.21), with no difference among men. This difference was unaffected by partnerships and mixing: BC women compared with WBI women adjusted OR: 2.31 (95% CI 1.30 to 4.09) after adjusting for age and partner numbers; 2.15 (95% CI 1.07 to 4.31) after additionally adjusting for age-mixing, ethnic-mixing and recent partnership type(s).

CONCLUSION

We found that differences in sexual partnerships and mixing do not appear to explain elevated risk of acute STI diagnosis among behaviourally-heterosexual BC women SHC attendees, but this may reflect the measures used. Better characterisation of 'high transmission networks' is needed, to improve our understanding of influences beyond the individual level, as part of endeavours to reduce population-level STI transmission.