Does frequency of genital herpes recurrences predict risk of transmission? Further analysis of the valacyclovir transmission study

Herpes Simplex Virus Shedding Rate: Surrogate Outcome for Genital Herpes Recurrence Frequency and Lesion Rates, and Phase 2 Clinical Trials End Point for Evaluating Efficacy of Antivirals

Background

We tested whether genital herpes simplex virus (HSV) shedding is an appropriate surrogate outcome for the clinical outcome of genital herpes lesions in studies of HSV-2 antiviral interventions.

Methods

We analyzed prospective data from natural history studies and clinical trials of antiviral agents for HSV-2 in which HSV-2-seropositive participants provided self-collected anogenital swab specimens daily over ≥25 days for HSV DNA quantitation by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Genital recurrences were self-reported.

Results

Among 674 participants, genital HSV shedding was detected on 17% of days, and genital lesions were reported on 10% of days. Within the same session, HSV shedding rates were strongly correlated with lesion rates (ρ = 0.61, P < .0001). The relative reduction in the recurrence rate was 72% (P = .041) for recipients of the antiviral agent pritelivir as compared to recipients of placebo, but it decreased to 21% (P = .75) after adjustment for HSV shedding rate. When evaluating valacyclovir and acyclovir, adjustment for the HSV shedding rate also led to a reduced association of these antivirals with the recurrence rate. Overall, 40%-82% of the antiviral effect on recurrences was explained by its effect on HSV shedding.

Conclusion

HSV genital shedding measured by PCR analysis in swab specimens self-collected daily is an appropriate surrogate outcome for genital herpes lesions because it is in the causal pathway to recurrences.

Effect of Condom Use on Per-act HSV-2 Transmission Risk in HIV-1, HSV-2-discordant Couples

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of condoms for protection against transmission of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) has been examined in a variety of populations with different effect measures. Often the efficacy has been assessed as change in hazard of transmission with consistent vs inconsistent use, independent of the number of acts. Condom efficacy has not previously measured on a per-act basis.

METHODS

We examined the per-act HSV-2 transmission rates with and without condom use among 911 African HSV-2 and human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) serodiscordant couples followed for an average of 18 months in an HIV prevention study. Infectivity models were used to associate the log10 probability of HSV-2 transmission over monthly risk periods with reported numbers of protected and unprotected sex acts. Condom efficacy was computed as the proportionate reduction in transmission risk for protected relative to unprotected sex acts.

RESULTS

Transmission of HSV-2 occurred in 68 couples, including 17 with susceptible women and 51 with susceptible men. The highest rate of transmission was from men to women: 28.5 transmissions per 1000 unprotected sex acts. We found that condoms were differentially protective against HSV-2 transmission by sex; condom use reduced per-act risk of transmission from men to women by 96% (P < .001) and marginally from women to men by 65% (P = .060).

CONCLUSIONS

Condoms are recommended as an effective preventive method for heterosexual transmission of HSV-2.

Oral antiviral therapy for prevention of genital herpes outbreaks in immunocompetent and nonpregnant patients

BACKGROUND

Genital herpes is caused by herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) or 2 (HSV-2). Some infected people experience outbreaks of genital herpes, typically, characterized by vesicular and erosive localized painful genital lesions.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the effectiveness and safety of three oral antiviral drugs (acyclovir, famciclovir and valacyclovir) prescribed to suppress genital herpes outbreaks in non-pregnant patients.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, the search portal of the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and pharmaceutical company databases up to February 2014. We also searched US Food and Drug Administration databases and proceedings of seven congresses to a maximum of 10 years. We contacted trial authors and pharmaceutical companies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected parallel-group and cross-over randomized controlled trials including patients with recurrent genital herpes caused by HSV, whatever the type (HSV-1, HSV-2, or undetermined), with at least four recurrences per year (trials concerning human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients or pregnant women were not eligible) and comparing suppressive oral antiviral treatment with oral acyclovir, famciclovir, and valacyclovir versus placebo or another suppressive oral antiviral treatment.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently selected eligible trials and extracted data. The Risk of bias tool was used to assess risk of bias. Treatment effect was measured by the risk ratio (RR) of having at least one genital herpes recurrence. Pooled RRs were derived by conventional pairwise meta-analyses. A network meta-analysis allowed for estimation of all possible two-by-two comparisons between antiviral drugs.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of 26 trials (among which six had a cross-over design) were included. Among the 6950 randomly assigned participants, 54% (range 0 to 100%) were female, mean age was 35 years (range 26 to 45.1), and the mean number of recurrences per year was 11 (range 6.3 to 17.8). Duration of treatment was two to 12 months. Risk of bias was considered high for half of the studies and unclear for the other half. A total of 14 trials compared acyclovir versus placebo, four trials compared valacyclovir versus placebo and 2 trials compared valacyclovir versus no treatment. Three trials compared famciclovir versus placebo. Two trials compared valacyclovir versus famciclovir and one trial compared acyclovir versus valacyclovir versus placebo.We analyzed data from 22 trials for the outcome: risk of having at least one clinical recurrence. We could not obtain the outcome data for four trials. In placebo-controlled trials, there was a low quality evidence that the risk of having at least one clinical recurrence was reduced with acyclovir (nine parallel-group trials, n = 2049; pooled RR 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.39 to 0.58), valacyclovir (four trials, n = 1788; pooled RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.69), or famciclovir (two trials, n = 732; pooled RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.64). The six cross-over trials showed larger treatment effects on average than the parallel-group trials. We found evidence of a small-study effect for acyclovir placebo-controlled trials (adjusted pooled RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.75). In analyzing parallel-group trials by daily dose, no clear evidence was found of a dose-response relationship for any drug. In head-to-head trials, the risk of having at least one recurrence was increased with valacyclovir rather than acyclovir (one trial, n = 1345; RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.34) and was not significantly different from that seen with famciclovir as compared with valacyclovir (one trial, n = 320; RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.63).We included 16 parallel-arm trials in a network meta-analysis and we were unable to determine which of the drugs was most effective in reducing the risk of at least one clinical recurrence (after adjustment for small-study effects, pooled RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.11 for valacyclovir vs acyclovir; pooled RR 1.04, 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.49 for famciclovir vs acyclovir; and pooled RR 1.26, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.75 for famciclovir vs valacyclovir). Safety data were sought but were reported as total numbers of adverse events.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Owing to risk of bias and inconsistency, there is low quality evidence that suppressive antiviral therapy with acyclovir, valacyclovir or famciclovir in pacients experiencing at least four recurrences of genital herpes per year decreases the number of pacients with at least one recurrence as compared with placebo. Network meta-analysis of the few direct comparisons and the indirect comparisons did not show superiority of one drug over another.

Prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection, human immunodeficiency virus/herpes simplex virus type 2 coinfection, and associated risk factors in a national, population-based survey in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is a known biologic cofactor for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission and acquisition. The Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey 2007 provided Kenya's first nationally representative estimate of HSV-2 prevalence and risk factors.

METHODS

KAIS was a household serosurvey among women and men aged 15 to 64 years. The survey included a behavioral interview and serum testing for HSV-2, HIV, and syphilis infections. Results were weighted for sampling design and nonresponse.

RESULTS

Of 19,840 eligible individuals, 90% completed an interview and 80% consented to testing. In all, 35% were infected with HSV-2, of which 42% were women and 26% were men. Between 15 and 24 years of age, HSV-2 prevalence increased from 7% to 34% in women and 3% to 14% in men. Among couples, 30% were HSV-2 concordant-positive, 21% were discordant, and 49% were concordant-negative. In all, 81% of HIV-infected persons were coinfected with HSV-2. HIV prevalence was 16% among those with HSV-2 and 2% among those without HSV-2. Women with circumcised partners had an HSV-2 prevalence of 39% compared to 77% of women with uncircumcised partners.

CONCLUSIONS

One-third of Kenyans were HSV-2 infected. HIV-1 infection, age, female sex, and lack of male circumcision were population-level predictors for HSV-2 infection. Targeted prevention interventions are needed, including an effective vaccine.

Interim modelling analysis to validate reported increases in condom use and assess HIV infections averted among female sex workers and clients in southern India following a targeted HIV prevention programme

Objectives

This study assesses whether the observed declines in HIV prevalence since the beginning of the ‘Avahan’ India HIV/AIDS prevention initiative are consistent with self-reported increases in condom use by female sex workers (FSWs) in two districts of southern India, and provides estimates of the fraction of new infections averted among FSWs and clients due to increases in condom use in commercial sex after 2004.

Methods

A deterministic compartmental model of HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission incorporating heterogeneous sexual behaviour was developed, parameterised and fitted using data from two districts in Karnataka, India. Three hypotheses of condom use among FSWs were tested: (H₀), that condom use increased in line with reported FSW survey data prior to the Avahan initiative but remained constant afterwards; (H₁) that condom use increased following the Avahan initiative, in accordance with survey data; (H₂) that condom use increased according to estimates derived from condom distribution data. The proportion of fits to HIV/STI prevalence data was examined to determine which hypothesis was most consistent.

Results

For Mysore 0/36/82.7 fits were identified per million parameter sets explored under hypothesis H₀/H₁/H₂, respectively, while for Belgaum 9.7/8.3/0 fits were identified. The HIV epidemics in Belgaum and Mysore are both declining. In Mysore, increases in condom use during commercial sex between 2004 and 2009 may have averted 31.2% to 47.4% of new HIV infections in FSWs, while in Belgaum it may have averted 24.8% to 43.2%, if there was an increase in condom use.

Discussion

Increased condom use following the Avahan intervention is likely to have played a role in curbing the HIV epidemic in Mysore. In Belgaum, given the limitations in available data, this method cannot be used alone to decide if there has been an increase in condom use.

Population-level effect of potential HSV2 prophylactic vaccines on HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa

Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV2) infection increases HIV transmission. We explore the impact of a potential prophylactic HSV2 vaccination on HIV incidence in Africa using STDSIM an individual-based model. A campaign that achieved 70% coverage over 5 years with a vaccine that reduced susceptibility to HSV2 acquisition and HSV2 reactivation by 75% for 10 years, reduced HIV incidence by 30-40% after 20 years (range 4-66%). Over 20 years, in most scenarios fewer than 100 vaccinations were required to avert one HIV infection. HSV2 vaccines could have a substantial impact on HIV incidence. Intensified efforts are needed to develop an effective HSV2 vaccine.