Development and Performance of Electronic Pediatric Risk of Mortality and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 Automated Acuity Scores

Acute kidney disease predicts chronic kidney disease in pediatric non-kidney solid organ transplant patients

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney disease (AKD) is defined as impaired kidney function present for <90 days with or without an acute kidney injury (AKI) event. Adults with AKD have an increased risk for progression to chronic kidney disease (CKD) and mortality. There are no data on the epidemiology of AKD in children after transplant. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence and risk factors for AKI, AKD, and CKD in children after transplantation.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study of all children undergoing non-kidney solid organ transplant between 2011 and 2019 at UPMC Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh. AKI and AKD were defined using the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Patients with a new estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73m² persisting for >3 months met criteria for new CKD. Variables associated with AKI, AKD, and CKD were analyzed.

RESULTS

Among 338 patients, 37.9% met criteria for severe AKI, 13% for AKD, and 8% for a new diagnosis of CKD. Stage 3 AKI was independently associated with AKD (OR: 5.35; 95% CI: 2.23-12.86). Severe AKI was not associated with new-onset CKD, whereas AKD was associated with new-onset CKD (OR: 29.74; CI: 11.22-78.82).

CONCLUSION

AKD may be superior to AKI in predicting risk of CKD in children after non-kidney solid organ transplantation.

Patient-Specific Factors Associated with Dexmedetomidine Dose Requirements in Critically Ill Children

The objective of this study was to evaluate patient-specific factors associated with dexmedetomidine dose requirements during continuous infusion. A retrospective cross-sectional analysis of electronic health record-derived data spanning 10 years for patients admitted with a primary respiratory diagnosis at a quaternary children's hospital and who received a dexmedetomidine continuous infusion (n = 346 patients) was conducted. Penalized regression was used to select demographic, clinical, and medication characteristics associated with a median daily dexmedetomidine dose. Identified characteristics were included in multivariable linear regression models and sensitivity analyses. Critically ill children had a median hourly dexmedetomidine dose of 0.5 mcg/kg/h (range: 0.1–1.8), median daily dose of 6.7 mcg/kg/d (range: 0.9–38.4), and median infusion duration of 1.6 days (range: 0.25–5.0). Of 26 variables tested, 15 were selected in the final model with days of dexmedetomidine infusion (β: 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6, 2.3), median daily morphine milligram equivalents dosing (mg/kg/d) (β: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1, 0.5), median daily ketamine dosing (mg/kg/d) (β: 0.2; 95% CI: 0.1, 0.3), male sex (β: −1.1; 95% CI: −2.0, −0.2), and non-Black reported race (β: −1.2; 95% CI: −2.3, −0.08) significantly associated with median daily dexmedetomidine dose. Approximately 56% of dose variability was explained by the model. Readily obtainable information such as demographics, concomitant medications, and duration of infusion accounts for over half the variability in dexmedetomidine dosing. Identified factors, as well as additional environmental and genetic factors, warrant investigation in future studies to inform precision dosing strategies.

Multidrug-resistant organisms: A significant cause of severe sepsis in pediatric intestinal and multi-visceral transplantation

Severe sepsis in immunocompromised children is associated with increased mortality. This paper describes the epidemiology landscape, clinical acuity, and outcomes for severe sepsis in pediatric intestinal (ITx) and multi-visceral (MVTx) transplant recipients requiring admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Severe sepsis episodes were retrospectively reviewed in 51 ITx and MVTx patients receiving organs between 2009 and 2015. Twenty-nine (56.8%) patients had at least one sepsis episode (total of 63 episodes) through December 2016. Bacterial etiologies accounted for 66.7% of all episodes (n = 42), occurring a median of 122.5 days following transplant (IQR 59-211.8 days). Multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) accounted for 73.8% of bacterial infections; extended spectrum beta-lactamase producers, vancomycin-resistant enterococcus, and highly-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa were the most commonly identified. Increased mechanical ventilation and vasoactive requirements were noted in MDRO episodes (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.09-8.46 and OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.09-8.61, respectively; p < .05) compared to non-MDRO episodes. PICU length of stay was significantly increased for MDRO episodes (7 vs. 3 days, p = .02). Graft loss was 24.1% (n = 7) and mortality was 24.1% (n = 7) in patients who experienced severe sepsis. Further attention is needed for MDRO risk mitigation and modification of sepsis treatment guidelines to ensure MDRO coverage for this population.

Pediatric Risk of Mortality III Score in Predicting Mortality Among Diabetic Ketoacidosis Patients in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

Background

Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is one of the most common complications of type 1 diabetes. Mortality is not uncommon in DKA, mostly in younger children with severe DKA and those complicated with cerebral edema. Early identification of high-risk patients can help in timely interventions to improve the outcome of DKA. Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM III) is a standard scoring system to objectively predict the prognosis and outcome of pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients.

Objective

To predict the need for inotrope and mechanical ventilation and mortality rate using PRISM III in DKA patients admitted to PICU.

Methods

A prospective observational study was conducted in the PICU of the National Institute of Child Health, Karachi, from February 2020 to September 2021 involving 114 children. PRISM III scoring protocol was applied. A PRISM III score of >8 predicted higher mortality risk. 

Results

The mean PRISM III score was 6.56 ± 3.18 with 30 (26.3%) children having a score >8. Of the 30 (26.31%) patients with >8 PRISM III scores, 14 (46.67%) needed inotropic support, 6 (20%) needed mechanical ventilation, and there were eight (26.67%) mortalities. There was no reported mortality among patients with a PRISM III score ≤8. All differences were statistically significant (p < .05).

Conclusion

PRISM III is a highly sophisticated scoring system that can aid clinicians in the early prediction of adverse clinical outcomes in patients with DKA. Robust scientific evidence supporting its clinical application can help practically improve the outcome of DKA in young patients.

An Evaluation of Antimicrobial Prescribing and Risk-adjusted Mortality

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends tracking risk-adjusted antimicrobial prescribing. Prior studies have used prescribing variation to drive quality improvement initiatives without adjusting for severity of illness. The present study aimed to determine the relationship between antimicrobial prescribing and risk-adjusted ICU mortality in the Pediatric Health Information Systems (PHIS) database, assessed by IBM-Watson risk of mortality. A nested analysis sought to assess an alternative risk model incorporating laboratory data from federated electronic health records.

Trends in Bronchiolitis ICU Admissions and Ventilation Practices: 2010-2019

OBJECTIVES

To determine the changes in ICU admissions, ventilatory support, length of stay, and cost for patients with bronchiolitis in the United States.

METHODS

Retrospective cross-sectional study of the Pediatric Health Information Systems database. All patients age <2 years admitted with bronchiolitis and discharged between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019, were included. Outcomes included proportions of annual ICU admissions, invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), noninvasive ventilation (NIV), and cost.

RESULTS

Of 203 859 admissions for bronchiolitis, 39 442 (19.3%) were admitted to an ICU, 6751 (3.3%) received IMV, and 9983 (4.9%) received NIV. ICU admissions for bronchiolitis doubled from 11.7% in 2010 to 24.5% in 2019 (P < .001 for trend), whereas ICU admissions for all children in Pediatric Health Information Systems <2 years of age increased from 16.0% to 21.1% during the same period (P < .001 for trend). Use of NIV increased sevenfold from 1.2% in 2010 to 9.5% in 2019 (P < .001 for trend). Use of IMV did not significantly change (3.3% in 2010 to 2.8% in 2019, P = .414 for trend). In mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression, discharge year was a significant predictor of NIV (odds ratio: 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-1.24) and ICU admission (odds ratio: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.09-1.09) but not IMV (odds ratio: 1.00; 95% CI: 1.00-1.00).

CONCLUSIONS

The proportions of children with bronchiolitis admitted to an ICU and receiving NIV have substantially increased, whereas the proportion receiving IMV is unchanged over the past decade. Further study is needed to better understand the factors underlying these temporal patterns.

Meta-Analysis for the Prediction of Mortality Rates in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit Using Different Scores: PRISM-III/IV, PIM-3, and PELOD-2

Introduction: The risk of mortality is higher in pediatric intensive care units (PICU). To prevent mortality in critically ill infants, optimal clinical management and risk stratification are required. Aims and Objectives: To assess the accuracy of PELOD-2, PIM-3, and PRISM-III/IV scores to predict outcomes in pediatric patients. Results: A total of 29 studies were included for quantitative synthesis in meta-analysis. PRISM-III/IV scoring showed pooled sensitivity of 0.78; 95% CI: 0.72-0.83 and pooled specificity of 0.75; 95% CI: 0.68-0.81 with 84% discrimination performance (SROC 0.84, 95% CI: 0.80-0.87). In the case of PIM-3, pooled sensivity 0.75; 95% CI 0.71-0.79 and pooled specificity 0.76; 95% CI 0.73-0.79 were observed with good discrimination power (SROC, 0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.85). PELOD-2 scoring system had pooled sensitivity of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.83) and combined specificity of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.68-0.81), as well as good discriminating ability (SROC 0.83, 95% CI: 0.80-0.86) for mortality prediction in PICU patients. Conclusion: PRISM-III/IV, PIM-3, and PELOD-2 had good performance for mortality prediction in PICU but with low to moderate certainty of evidence. More well-designed studies are needed for the validation of the study results.

COVID-19: instruments for the allocation of mechanical ventilators-a narrative review

After the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic, the elaboration of comprehensive and preventive public policies became important in order to stop the spread of the disease. However, insufficient or ineffective measures may have placed health professionals and services in the position of having to allocate mechanical ventilators. This study aimed to identify instruments, analyze their structures, and present the main criteria used in the screening protocols, in order to help the development of guidelines and policies for the allocation of mechanical ventilators in the COVID-19 pandemic. The instruments have a low level of scientific evidence, and, in general, are structured by various clinical, non-clinical, and tiebreaker criteria that contain ethical aspects. Few instruments included public participation in their construction or validation. We believe that the elaboration of these guidelines cannot be restricted to specialists as this question involves ethical considerations which make the participation of the population necessary. Finally, we propose seventeen elements that can support the construction of screening protocols in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Joining Datasets Without Identifiers: Probabilistic Linkage of Virtual Pediatric Systems and PEDSnet

OBJECTIVES

To 1) probabilistically link two important pediatric data sources, Virtual Pediatric Systems and PEDSnet, 2) evaluate linkage accuracy overall and in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, and 3) identify variables important to linkage accuracy.

DESIGN

Retrospective linkage of prospectively collected datasets from Virtual Pediatrics Systems, Inc (Los Angeles, CA) and the PEDSnet consortium.

SETTING

Single-center academic PICU.

PATIENTS

All PICU encounters between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2017, that were deterministically matched between the two datasets.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We abstracted records from Virtual Pediatric Systems and PEDSnet corresponding to PICU encounters and probabilistically linked using 44 features shared by the two datasets. We generated a gold standard deterministic linkage using protected health information elements, which were then removed from datasets. We then calculated candidate pair log-likelihood ratios for all pairs of subjects and selected optimal pairs in a two-stage algorithm. A total of 22,051 gold standard PICU encounter pairs were identified over the study period. The optimal linkage model demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve > 0.99); 19,801 cases (89.9%) were matched with 13 false positives. The addition of two protected health information dates (admission month, birth day-of-year) increased to 20,189 (91.6%) the cases matched, with three false positives. Restricting to patients with Virtual Pediatric Systems diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock (n = 1,340 [6.1%]) matched 1,250 cases (93.2%) with zero false positives. Increased number of laboratory values present in the first 12 hours of admission significantly increased log-likelihood ratios, suggesting stronger candidate pair matching.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated the use of probabilistic linkage to accurately join two complementary pediatric critical care datasets at a single academic PICU in the absence of protected health information. Combining datasets with curated diagnoses and granular measurements can validate patient acuity metrics and facilitate multicenter machine learning algorithms. We anticipate these methods will generalize to other common PICU diagnoses.

Early Hyperoxemia and Outcome Among Critically Ill Children

OBJECTIVE

To identify whether a high PaO2 (hyperoxemia) at the time of presentation to the PICU is associated with in-hospital mortality.

DESIGN

Single-center observational study.

SETTING

Quaternary-care PICU.

PATIENTS

Encounters admitted between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2018.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Encounters with a measured PaO2 were included. To account for severity of illness upon presentation, we calculated a modified Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV score excluding PaO2 for each encounter, calibrated for institutional data. Logistic regression was used to determine whether hyperoxemia (PaO2 ≥ 300 torr [39.99 kPa]) in the 12 hours surrounding PICU admission was associated with in-hospital mortality. We reperformed our analysis using a cutoff for hyperoxemia obtained by comparisons of observed versus predicted mortality when encounters were classified by highest PaO2 in 50 torr (6.67 kPa) bins. Results are reported as adjusted odds ratios with 95% CIs. Of 23,719 encounters, 4,093 had a PaO2 recorded in the period -6 to +6 hours after admission. Two hundred seventy-four of 4,093 (6.7%) had in-hospital mortality. The prevalence of hyperoxemia increased with rising modified Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV and was not associated with mortality in multivariable models (adjusted odds ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.98-1.93). When using a higher cutoff of hyperoxemia derived from comparison of observed versus predicted rates of mortality of greater than or equal to 550 torr (73.32 kPa), hyperoxemia was associated with mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 2.78; 95% CI, 2.54-3.05).

CONCLUSIONS

A conventional threshold for hyperoxemia at presentation to the PICU was not associated with in-hospital mortality in a model using a calibrated acuity score. Extreme states of hyperoxemia (≥ 73.32 kPa) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. Prospective research is required to identify if hyperoxemia before and/or after PICU admission contributes to poor outcomes.

Association of Severe Hyperoxemia Events and Mortality Among Patients Admitted to a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

Importance

A high Pao2, termed hyperoxemia, is postulated to have deleterious health outcomes. To date, the association between hyperoxemia during the ongoing management of critical illness and mortality has been incompletely evaluated in children.

Objective

To examine whether severe hyperoxemia events are associated with mortality among patients admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU).

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort study was conducted over a 10-year period (January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2018); all 23 719 PICU encounters at a quaternary children's hospital with a documented arterial blood gas measurement were evaluated.

Exposures

Severe hyperoxemia, defined as Pao2 level greater than or equal to 300 mm Hg (40 kPa).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The highest Pao2 values during hospitalization were dichotomized according to the definition of severe hyperoxemia and assessed for association with in-hospital mortality using logistic regression models incorporating a calibrated measure of multiple organ dysfunction, extracorporeal life support, and the total number of arterial blood gas measurements obtained during an encounter.

Results

Of 23 719 PICU encounters during the inclusion period, 6250 patients (13 422 [56.6%] boys; mean [SD] age, 7.5 [6.6] years) had at least 1 measured Pao2 value. Severe hyperoxemia was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.78; 95% CI, 1.36-2.33; P < .001). Increasing odds of in-hospital mortality were observed with 1 (aOR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.05-2.08; P = .03), 2 (aOR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.27-3.18; P = .002), and 3 or more (aOR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.62-3.94; P < .001) severely hyperoxemic Pao2 values obtained greater than or equal to 3 hours apart from one another compared with encounters without hyperoxemia. A sensitivity analysis examining the hypothetical outcomes of residual confounding indicated that an unmeasured binary confounder with an aOR of 2 would have to be present in 37% of the encounters with severe hyperoxemia and 0% of the remaining cohort to fail to reject the null hypothesis (aOR of severe hyperoxemia, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.99-1.72).

Conclusions and Relevance

Greater numbers of severe hyperoxemia events appeared to be associated with increased mortality in this large, diverse cohort of critically ill children, supporting a possible exposure-response association between severe hyperoxemia and outcome in this population. Although further prospective evaluation appears to be warranted, this study's findings suggest that guidelines for ongoing management of critically ill children should take into consideration the possible detrimental effects of severe hyperoxemia.