Risk factors for admission in children with bronchiolitis from pediatric emergency department observation unit

Characteristics of Admissions from the Pediatric Emergency Department Observation Unit

OBJECTIVE

Emergency department observation units (EDOUs) are used to manage common pediatric illnesses and reduce the admission rate to the hospital. Most of these patients require a short duration of observation before a determination can be made whether they need to be admitted to the hospital or safely discharged home. The purpose of this study was to determine the characteristics of admissions from a pediatric EDOU for the top 10 diagnoses admitted to the unit. This will help standardize the disposition of such types of patients from the ED, hence improving the efficiency of the unit.

METHODS

We did a retrospective surveillance study of admitted patients from 0 to 18 years of age from the EDOU for the top 10 diagnoses. Descriptive data were reported using percentages and medians with interquartile ranges. Pearson χ2 tests were used to determine significant differences (P < 0.05) between the reason for admission and medical history.

RESULTS

In total, 520 patients were admitted from the EDOU during the study period. The median patient age was 3.39 years, with most being Hispanic and female. The top three primary diagnoses of all admitted patients were cellulitis and abscess, gastroenteritis, and bronchiolitis. Sixty-three percent of all admitted patients had secondary diagnoses. Most of these patients were admitted to the inpatient unit due to progression of the primary condition.

CONCLUSIONS

The characteristics of admissions from the EDOU may help us to understand historical experience regarding diagnoses, timing, and indications of deterioration, resource utilization, and other metrics that resulted in transfers of EDOU patients to the intensive care unit/operating room/inpatient units.

Predicting poor outcomes in children aged 1-12 with respiratory tract infections: A systematic review

Background

Demand for NHS services is high and rising. In children respiratory tract infections (RTI) are the most common reason for consultation with primary care. Understanding which features are associated with good and poor prognosis with RTI will help develop interventions to support parents manage illness.

Aim

To identify symptoms, signs, and investigation results associated with good and poor prognosis, and clinical decision making in children aged 1–12 years with RTI symptoms, at home and presenting to ambulatory care.

Design and setting

Systematic literature review.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cinahl, Web of Science and the Cochrane database of systematic reviews for studies of children aged 1 to 12 years with a RTI or related condition reporting symptoms, signs and investigation results associated with prognostic outcomes. Quality was assessed using the QUIPS tool.

Results

We included 27 studies which included 34802 children and measured 192 factors. Nine studies explored future outcomes and the remainder explored clinical management from the initial consultation with the health services. None were conducted in a home setting. Respiratory signs, vomiting, fever, dehydration and tachycardia at the initial contact were associated with future hospitalisation. Little evidence was available for other outcomes.

Conclusion

Some evidence is available to clinicians to stratify risk of, future hospitalisation, but not of other prognostic outcomes. There is little evidence available to parents to identify children at risk of poor prognosis. Research is needed into whether poor prognosis can be predicted by parents in the home.

Viral lower respiratory tract infections-strict admission guidelines for young children can safely reduce admissions

Viral lower respiratory tract infection (VLRTI) is the most common cause of hospital admission among small children in high-income countries. Guidelines to identify children in need of admission are lacking in the literature. In December 2012, our hospital introduced strict guidelines for admission. This study aims to retrospectively evaluate the safety and efficacy of the guidelines. We performed a single-center retrospective administrative database search and medical record review. ICD-10 codes identified children < 24 months assessed at the emergency department for VLRTI for a 10-year period. To identify adverse events related to admission guidelines implementation, we reviewed patient records for all those discharged on primary contact followed by readmission within 14 days. During the study period, 3227 children younger than 24 months old were assessed in the ED for VLRTI. The proportion of severe adverse events among children who were discharged on their initial emergency department contact was low both before (0.3%) and after the intervention (0.5%) (p=1.0). Admission rates before vs. after the intervention were for previously healthy children > 90 days 65.3% vs. 53.3% (p<0.001); for healthy children ≤ 90 days 85% vs. 68% (p<0.001); and for high-risk comorbidities 74% vs. 71% (p=0.5).Conclusion: After implementation of admission guidelines for VLRTI, there were few adverse events and a significant reduction in admissions to the hospital from the emergency department. Our admission guidelines may be a safe and helpful tool in the assessment of children with VLRTI. What is Known: • Viral lower respiratory tract infection, including bronchiolitis, is the most common cause of hospitalization for young children in the developed world. Treatment is mainly supportive, and hospitalization should be limited to the cases in need of therapeutic intervention. • Many countries have guidelines for the management of the disease, but the decision on whom to admit for inpatient treatment is often subjective and may vary even between physicians in the same hospital. What is New: • Implementation of admission criteria for viral lower respiratory tract infection may reduce the rate of hospital admissions without increasing adverse events.

Machine learning-based prediction of acute severity in infants hospitalized for bronchiolitis: a multicenter prospective study

We aimed to develop machine learning models to accurately predict bronchiolitis severity, and to compare their predictive performance with a conventional scoring (reference) model. In a 17-center prospective study of infants (aged < 1 year) hospitalized for bronchiolitis, by using routinely-available pre-hospitalization data as predictors, we developed four machine learning models: Lasso regression, elastic net regression, random forest, and gradient boosted decision tree. We compared their predictive performance-e.g., area-under-the-curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and net benefit (decision curves)-using a cross-validation method, with that of the reference model. The outcomes were positive pressure ventilation use and intensive treatment (admission to intensive care unit and/or positive pressure ventilation use). Of 1,016 infants, 5.4% underwent positive pressure ventilation and 16.0% had intensive treatment. For the positive pressure ventilation outcome, machine learning models outperformed reference model (e.g., AUC 0.88 [95% CI 0.84-0.93] in gradient boosted decision tree vs 0.62 [95% CI 0.53-0.70] in reference model), with higher sensitivity (0.89 [95% CI 0.80-0.96] vs. 0.62 [95% CI 0.49-0.75]) and specificity (0.77 [95% CI 0.75-0.80] vs. 0.57 [95% CI 0.54-0.60]). The machine learning models also achieved a greater net benefit over ranges of clinical thresholds. Machine learning models consistently demonstrated a superior ability to predict acute severity and achieved greater net benefit.

Predicting Escalated Care in Infants With Bronchiolitis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Early risk stratification of infants with bronchiolitis receiving airway support is critical for focusing appropriate therapies, yet the tools to risk categorize this subpopulation do not exist. Our objective was to identify predictors of "escalated care" in bronchiolitis. We hypothesized there would be a significant association between escalated care and predictors in the emergency department. We subsequently developed a risk score for escalated care.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of previously healthy infants aged <12 months with bronchiolitis. Our primary outcome was escalated care (ie, hospitalization with high-flow nasal cannula, noninvasive or invasive ventilation, or intensive care admission). The predictors evaluated were age, prematurity, day of illness, poor feeding, dehydration, apnea, nasal flaring and/or grunting, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, and retractions.

RESULTS

Of 2722 patients, 261 (9.6%) received escalated care. Multivariable predictors of escalated care were oxygen saturation <90% (odds ratio [OR]: 8.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1-15.7]), nasal flaring and/or grunting (OR: 3.8 [95% CI 2.6-5.4]), apnea (OR: 3.0 [95% CI 1.9-4.8]), retractions (OR: 3.0 [95% CI 1.6-5.7]), age ≤2 months (OR: 2.1 [95% CI 1.5-3.0]), dehydration (OR 2.1 [95% CI 1.4-3.3]), and poor feeding (OR: 1.9 [95% CI 1.3-2.7]). One of 217 (0.5%) infants without predictors received escalated care. The risk score ranged from 0 to 14 points, with the estimated risk of escalated care from 0.46% (0 points) to 96.9% (14 points). The area under the curve was 85%.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified variables measured in the emergency department predictive of escalated care in bronchiolitis and derived a risk score to stratify risk of this outcome. This score may be used to aid management and disposition decisions.

Practice Variation in Acute Bronchiolitis: A Pediatric Emergency Research Networks Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Studies characterizing hospitalizations in bronchiolitis did not identify patients receiving evidence-based supportive therapies (EBSTs). We aimed to evaluate intersite and internetwork variation in receipt of ≥1 EBSTs during the hospital management of infants diagnosed with bronchiolitis in 38 emergency departments of pediatric emergency research networks in Canada, the United States, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal. We hypothesized that there would be significant variation, adjusted for patient characteristics.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of previously healthy infants aged <12 months with bronchiolitis. Our primary outcome was that hospitalization occurred with EBST (ie, parenteral fluids, oxygen, or airway support).

RESULTS

Out of 3725 participants, 1466 (39%) were hospitalized, and 1023 out of 1466 participants (69.8%) received EBST. The use of EBST varied by site (P < .001; range 6%-99%, median 23%), but not by network (P = .2). Significant multivariable predictors and their odds ratios (ORs) were as follows: age (0.9), oxygen saturation (1.3), apnea (3.4), dehydration (3.2), nasal flaring and/or grunting (2.4), poor feeding (2.1), chest retractions (1.9), and respiratory rate (1.2). The use of pharmacotherapy and radiography varied by network and site (P < .001), with respective intersite ranges 2% to 79% and 1.6% to 81%. Compared with Australia and New Zealand, the multivariable OR for the use of pharmacotherapy in Spain and Portugal was 22.7 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.5-111), use in Canada was 11.5 (95% CI: 3.7-36), use in the United States was 6.8 (95% CI: 2.3-19.8), and use in the United Kingdom was 1.4 (95% CI: 0.4-4.2). Compared with United Kingdom, OR for radiography use in the United States was 4.9 (95% CI 2.0-12.2), use in Canada was 4.9 (95% CI 1.9-12.6), use in Spain and Portugal was 2.4 (95% CI 0.6-9.8), and use in Australia and New Zealand was 1.8 (95% CI 0.7-4.7).

CONCLUSIONS

More than 30% of infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis received no EBST. The hospital site was a source of variation in all study outcomes, and the network also predicted the use of pharmacotherapy and radiography.

Factors associated with disease severity in children with bronchiolitis

OBJECTIVE

Bronchiolitis is one of the top causes of hospitalization of infants in the United States. Several clinical factors have been associated with hospitalization; however, few studies have examined factors related to severe disease. Our goal was to describe the clinical characteristics and hospital course of children admitted with bronchiolitis and to identify factors related to intensive care unit (ICU) admission in this population.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of all children less than 2 years of age admitted to a children's hospital with bronchiolitis between July 2008 and July 2011. Demographic and clinical data were collected including information regarding hospital course, treatments received and respiratory pathogens.

RESULTS

During the study period, 734 children were admitted to the hospital with bronchiolitis, 22% of whom were admitted to the ICU and 10% of whom were intubated and mechanically ventilated. Admission to the ICU was associated with younger age [110 (45-210) days versus 69 (35-149) days, p < 0.001] and history of premature birth (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.4, p = 0.01), but not with race or ethnicity. The use of respiratory treatments was common in the children admitted to the ICU but was not associated with shortened durations of hospitalization. In addition, neither prematurity nor young age were associated with either increased duration of hospitalization or with increased likelihood of mechanical ventilation.

CONCLUSIONS

During acute bronchiolitis infections, younger children and those with a history of prematurity were more likely to be admitted to the ICU with severe disease.

A systematic review of predictive modeling for bronchiolitis

PURPOSE

Bronchiolitis is the most common cause of illness leading to hospitalization in young children. At present, many bronchiolitis management decisions are made subjectively, leading to significant practice variation among hospitals and physicians caring for children with bronchiolitis. To standardize care for bronchiolitis, researchers have proposed various models to predict the disease course to help determine a proper management plan. This paper reviews the existing state of the art of predictive modeling for bronchiolitis. Predictive modeling for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is covered whenever appropriate, as RSV accounts for about 70% of bronchiolitis cases.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted through a PubMed search up to April 25, 2014. The literature on predictive modeling for bronchiolitis was retrieved using a comprehensive search query, which was developed through an iterative process. Search results were limited to human subjects, the English language, and children (birth to 18 years).

RESULTS

The literature search returned 2312 references in total. After manual review, 168 of these references were determined to be relevant and are discussed in this paper. We identify several limitations and open problems in predictive modeling for bronchiolitis, and provide some preliminary thoughts on how to address them, with the hope to stimulate future research in this domain.

CONCLUSIONS

Many problems remain open in predictive modeling for bronchiolitis. Future studies will need to address them to achieve optimal predictive models.