Predictive Risk Model of 30-Day Mortality in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Patients:

Association between preoperative neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and mortality after plastic and reconstructive surgery

Predictive factors associated with postoperative mortality have not been extensively studied in plastic and reconstructive surgery. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), a systemic inflammation index, has been shown to have a predictive value in surgery. We aimed to evaluate association between preoperative NLR and postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing plastic and reconstructive surgery. From January 2011 to July 2019, we identified 7089 consecutive adult patients undergoing plastic and reconstructive surgery. The patients were divided according to median value of preoperative NLR of 1.84. The low NLR group was composed of 3535 patients (49.9%), and 3554 patients (50.1%) were in the high NLR group. The primary outcome was mortality during the first year, and overall mortality and acute kidney injury were also compared. In further analysis, outcomes were compared according to quartile of NLR, and a receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed to estimate the threshold associated with 1-year mortality. This observational study showed that mortality during the first year after plastic and reconstructive surgery was significantly increased in the high NLR group (0.7% vs. 3.5%; hazard ratio, 4.23; 95% confidence interval, 2.69-6.63; p < 0.001), and a graded association was observed between preoperative NLR and 1-year mortality. The estimated threshold of preoperative NLR was 2.5, with an area under curve of 0.788. Preoperative NLR may be associated with 1-year mortality after plastic and reconstructive surgery. Further studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Functional status as a predictor of outcomes in open and endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

BACKGROUND

Functional status is a simple and rapidly assessable metric that may be used as a predictor for surgical outcomes. This study examined the association of functional status with short-term mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair in octogenarians to characterize the utility of functional status as a means of preoperative risk assessment.

METHODS

All patients who underwent endovascular and open AAA repair from 2002 to 2010 within the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) database were identified. Functional status, defined as an ordinal scale from 1 to 3 (1, independent; 2, partially dependent; 3, totally dependent), was examined using multivariate regression models with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome. For the purpose of analysis, this 3-point scale was converted into a binomial scale of function, with "normal" including 1 (completely independent) and "abnormal" including 2 or 3 (partially to totally dependent).

RESULTS

We identified 9030 patients who underwent AAA repair (46.6% open and 53.4% endovascular). Mortality at 30 days was 2.8% for the entire cohort (4.2% open, 1.7% endovascular; P < .001). There were 1340 patients aged ≥80 years, of which 67.3% underwent endovascular AAA repair. Among all age groups, functional status was a significant predictor of 30-day mortality (<80 years, P < .001; ≥80 years, P < .001). The ≥80 cohort with abnormal function status also demonstrated increased operative mortality (P = .002), length of stay (P = .001), and incidence of pulmonary complications (P = .025) compared with the cohort with normal functional status. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that within the ≥80-year-old cohort, only functional status remained a significant predictor of mortality (P < .001). In addition, the strength of the association between functional status and mortality was greater in the older cohort than in the younger one (Cox regression hazard ratio: 3.13 vs 2.18).

CONCLUSIONS

Functional status is a simple and rapidly applicable predictor of mortality within AAA patients and may be a useful tool to help preoperatively risk-stratify elderly patients presenting with AAA in need of repair. Further studies are needed to understand how best to apply these data to the clinical setting to guide preoperative decision making.