HIV Care Prioritization Using Phylogenetic Branch Length

Epidemiological and viral characteristics of undiagnosed HIV infections in Botswana

Background

HIV-1 is endemic in Botswana. The country’s primary challenge is identifying people living with HIV who are unaware of their status. We evaluated factors associated with undiagnosed HIV infection using HIV-1 phylogenetic, behavioural, and demographic data.

Methods

As part of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, 20% of households in 30 villages were tested for HIV and followed from 2013 to 2018. A total of 12,610 participants were enrolled, 3596 tested HIV-positive at enrolment, and 147 participants acquired HIV during the trial. Extensive socio-demographic and behavioural data were collected from participants and next-generation sequences were generated for HIV-positive cases. We compared three groups of participants: (1) those previously known to be HIV-positive at enrolment (n = 2995); (2) those newly diagnosed at enrolment (n = 601) and (3) those who tested HIV-negative at enrolment but tested HIV-positive during follow-up (n = 147). We searched for differences in demographic and behavioural factors between known and newly diagnosed group using logistic regression. We also compared the topology of each group in HIV-1 phylogenies and used a genetic diversity-based algorithm to classify infections as recent (< 1 year) or chronic (≥ 1 year).

Results

Being male (aOR = 2.23) and younger than 35 years old (aOR = 8.08) was associated with undiagnosed HIV infection (p < 0.001), as was inconsistent condom use (aOR = 1.76). Women were more likely to have undiagnosed infections if they were married, educated, and tested frequently. For men, being divorced increased their risk. The genetic diversity-based algorithm classified most incident infections as recent (75.0%), but almost none of known infections (2.0%). The estimated proportion of recent infections among new diagnoses was 37.0% (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Our results indicate that those with undiagnosed infections are likely to be young men and women who do not use condoms consistently. Among women, several factors were predictive: being married, educated, and testing frequently increased risk. Men at risk were more difficult to delineate. A sizeable proportion of undiagnosed infections were recent based on a genetic diversity-based classifier. In the era of “test and treat all”, pre-exposure prophylaxis may be prioritized towards individuals who self-identify or who can be identified using these predictors in order to halt onward transmission in time.

The ViReflow pipeline enables user friendly large scale viral consensus genome reconstruction

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, massive sequencing and data sharing efforts enabled the real-time surveillance of novel SARS-CoV-2 strains throughout the world, the results of which provided public health officials with actionable information to prevent the spread of the virus. However, with great sequencing comes great computation, and while cloud computing platforms bring high-performance computing directly into the hands of all who seek it, optimal design and configuration of a cloud compute cluster requires significant system administration expertise. We developed ViReflow, a user-friendly viral consensus sequence reconstruction pipeline enabling rapid analysis of viral sequence datasets leveraging Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud compute resources and the Reflow system. ViReflow was developed specifically in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is general to any viral pathogen. Importantly, when utilized with sufficient compute resources, ViReflow can trim, map, call variants, and call consensus sequences from amplicon sequence data from 1000 SARS-CoV-2 samples at 1000X depth in < 10 min, with no user intervention. ViReflow’s simplicity, flexibility, and scalability make it an ideal tool for viral molecular epidemiological efforts.

Phylogenetic prioritization of HIV-1 transmission clusters with viral lineage-level diversification rates

Background and objectives

Public health officials faced with a large number of transmission clusters require a rapid, scalable and unbiased way to prioritize distribution of limited resources to maximize benefits. We hypothesize that transmission cluster prioritization based on phylogenetically derived lineage-level diversification rates will perform as well as or better than commonly used growth-based prioritization measures, without need for historical data or subjective interpretation.

Methodology

9822 HIV pol sequences collected during routine drug resistance genotyping were used alongside simulated sequence data to infer sets of phylogenetic transmission clusters via patristic distance threshold. Prioritized clusters inferred from empirical data were compared to those prioritized by the current public health protocols. Prioritization of simulated clusters was evaluated based on correlation of a given prioritization measure with future cluster growth, as well as the number of direct downstream transmissions from cluster members.

Results

Empirical data suggest diversification rate-based measures perform comparably to growth-based measures in recreating public heath prioritization choices. However, unbiased simulated data reveals phylogenetic diversification rate-based measures perform better in predicting future cluster growth relative to growth-based measures, particularly long-term growth. Diversification rate-based measures also display advantages over growth-based measures in highlighting groups with greater future transmission events compared to random groups of the same size. Furthermore, diversification rate measures were notably more robust to effects of decreased sampling proportion.

Conclusions and implications

Our findings indicate diversification rate-based measures frequently outperform growth-based measures in predicting future cluster growth and offer several additional advantages beneficial to optimizing the public health prioritization process.

SEPIA: simulation-based evaluation of prioritization algorithms

Background

The ability to prioritize people living with HIV (PLWH) by risk of future transmissions could aid public health officials in optimizing epidemiological intervention. While methods exist to perform such prioritization based on molecular data, their effectiveness and accuracy are poorly understood, and it is unclear how one can directly compare the accuracy of different methods. We introduce SEPIA (Simulation-based Evaluation of PrIoritization Algorithms), a novel simulation-based framework for determining the effectiveness of prioritization algorithms. SEPIA expands upon prior related work by defining novel metrics of effectiveness with which to compare prioritization techniques, as well as by creating a simulation-based tool with which to perform such effectiveness comparisons. Under several metrics of effectiveness that we propose, we compare two existing prioritization approaches: one phylogenetic (ProACT) and one distance-based (growth of HIV-TRACE transmission clusters).

Results

Using all proposed metrics, ProACT consistently slightly outperformed the transmission cluster growth approach. However, both methods consistently performed just marginally better than random, suggesting that there is significant room for improvement in prioritization tools.

Conclusion

We hope that, by providing ways to quantify the effectiveness of prioritization methods in simulation, SEPIA will aid researchers in developing novel risk prioritization tools for PLWH.