Do Tests Devised to Detect Recent HIV-1 Infection Provide Reliable Estimates of Incidence in Africa?

Assays for estimating HIV incidence: updated global market assessment and estimated economic value

Introduction

Accurate incidence estimates are needed to characterize the HIV epidemic and guide prevention efforts. HIV Incidence assays are cost‐effective laboratory assays that provide incidence estimates from cross‐sectional surveys. We conducted a global market assessment of HIV incidence assays under three market scenarios and estimated the economic value of improved incidence assays.

Methods

We interviewed 27 stakeholders, and reviewed journal articles, working group proceedings, and manufacturers’ sales figures. We determined HIV incidence assay use in 2014, and estimated use in 2015 to 2017 and in 5 to 10‐years under three market scenarios, as well as the cost of conducting national and key population surveys using an HIV incidence assay with improved performance.

Results

Global 2014 HIV incidence assay use was 308,900 tests, highest in Asia and mostly for case‐ and population‐based surveillance. Estimated 2015 to 2017 use was 94,475 annually, with declines due to China and the United States discontinuing incidence assay use for domestic surveillance. Annual projected 5 to 10 year use under scenario 1 – no change in technology – was 94,475. For scenario 2 – a moderately improved incidence assay – projected annual use was 286,031. Projected annual use for scenario 3 – game‐changing technologies with an HIV incidence assay part of (a) standard confirmatory testing, and (b) standard rapid testing, were 500,000 and 180 million, respectively. As HIV incidence assay precision increases, decreased sample sizes required for incidence estimation resulted in $5 to 23 million annual reductions in survey costs and easily offset the approximately $3 million required to develop a new assay.

Conclusions

Improved HIV incidence assays could substantially reduce HIV incidence estimation costs. Continued development of HIV incidence assays with improved performance is required to realize these cost benefits.

Trends of HIV-1 incidence with credible intervals in Sweden 2002-09 reconstructed using a dynamic model of within-patient IgG growth

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 is a lifelong disease, often without serious symptoms for years after infection, and thus many infected persons go undetected for a long time. This makes it difficult to track incidence, and thus epidemics may go through dramatic changes largely unnoticed, only to be detected years later. Because direct measurement of incidence is expensive and difficult, several biomarker-based tests and algorithms have been developed to distinguish between recent and long-term infections. However, current methods have been criticized and demands for novel methods have been raised.

METHODS

We developed and applied a biomarker-based incidence model, joining a time-continuous model of immunoglobulin G (IgG) growth (measured by the IgG-capture BED-enzyme immunoassay) with statistical corrections for both sample size and unobserved diagnoses. Our method uses measurements of IgG concentration in newly diagnosed people to calculate the posterior distribution of infection times. Time from infection to diagnosis is modelled for all individuals in a given period and is used to calculate a sample weight to correct for undiagnosed individuals. We then used a bootstrapping method to reconstruct point estimates and credible intervals of the incidence of HIV-1 in Sweden based on a sample of newly diagnosed people.

RESULTS

We found evidence for: (i) a slowly but steadily increasing trend in both the incidence and incidence rate in Sweden; and (ii) an increasing but well-controlled epidemic in gay men in Stockholm. Sensitivity analyses showed that our method was robust to realistic levels (up to 15%) of BED misclassification of non-recently infected persons as early infections.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a novel incidence estimator based on previously published theoretical work that has the potential to provide rapid, up-to-date estimates of HIV-1 incidence in populations where BED test data are available.

Short Communication: Defining optimality of a test for recent infection for HIV incidence surveillance

The estimation of HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys using tests for recent infection has attracted much interest. It is increasingly recognized that the lack of high performance recent infection tests is hindering the implementation of this surveillance approach. With growing funding opportunities, test developers are currently trying to fill this gap. However, there is a lack of consensus and clear guidance for developers on the evaluation and optimization of candidate tests. A fundamental shift from conventional thinking about test performance is needed: away from metrics relevant in typical public health settings where the detection of a condition in individuals is of primary interest (sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values) and toward metrics that are appropriate when estimating a population-level parameter such as incidence (accuracy and precision). The inappropriate use of individual-level diagnostics performance measures could lead to spurious assessments and suboptimal designs of tests for incidence estimation. In some contexts, such as population-level application to HIV incidence, bias of estimates is essentially negligible, and all that remains is the maximization of precision. The maximization of the precision of incidence estimates provides a completely general criterion for test developers to assess and optimize test designs. Summarizing the test dynamics into the properties relevant for incidence estimation, high precision estimates are obtained when (1) the mean duration of recent infection is large, and (2) the false-recent rate is small. The optimal trade-off between these two test properties will produce the highest precision, and therefore the most epidemiologically useful incidence estimates.

Inter-laboratory assessment of a prototype multiplex kit for determination of recent HIV-1 infection

Background

Accurate and reliable laboratory-based assays are needed for estimating HIV-1 incidence from cross-sectional samples. We recently described the development of a customized, HIV-1-specific Bio-Plex assay that allows for the measurement of HIV-specific antibody levels and avidity to multiple analytes for improved HIV-1 incidence estimates.

Methods

To assess intra- and inter-laboratory assay performance, prototype multiplex kits were developed and evaluated by three distinct laboratories. Longitudinal seroconversion specimens were tested in parallel by each laboratory and kit performance was compared to that of an in-house assay. Additionally, the ability of the kit to distinguish recent from long-term HIV-1 infection, as compared to the in-house assay, was determined by comparing the reactivity of known recent (infected <6 months) and long-term (infected >12 months) drug naïve specimens.

Results

Although the range of reactivity for each analyte varied between the prototype kit and in-house assay, a measurable distinction in reactivity between recent and long-term specimens was observed with both assays in all three laboratories. Additionally, kit performance was consistent between all three laboratories. The intra-assay coefficient of variation (CV), between sample replicates for all laboratories, ranged from 0.5% to 6.1%. The inter-laboratory CVs ranged from 8.5% to 21.3% for gp160-avidity index (a) and gp120-normalized mean fluorescent intensity (MFI) value (n), respectively.

Conclusion

We demonstrate the feasibility of producing a multiplex kit for measuring HIV antibody levels and avidity, with the potential for improved incidence estimates based on multi-analyte algorithms. The availability of a commercial kit will facilitate the transfer of technology among diverse laboratories for widespread assay use.

Short communication: effect of short-course antenatal zidovudine and single-dose nevirapine on the BED capture enzyme immunoassay levels in HIV type 1 subtype C infection

Cross-sectional prevalence studies based on immunoassays that discriminate between recent and long-term infections, such as the BED assay, have been widely used to estimate HIV incidence. However, individuals receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy tend to have lower BED levels and are associated with a higher risk for being mistakenly classified as recent infections. To assess the effect of short-term antenatal zidovudine (ZDV) and single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) on the BED levels in HIV-1C infection, we measured longitudinal BED normalized optical density (OD-n) levels using stored plasma samples collected prenatally and postnatally from 159 pregnant HIV-infected women in Botswana who participated in the randomized clinical Mother-to-Child-Prevention study, the Mashi study. All women received ZDV from 34 weeks gestation through delivery and were randomized to receive either sdNVP or placebo during labor. Among 159 subjects, the OD-n levels decreased from baseline to delivery in 93 subjects (p=0.039), suggesting that short-course ZDV may decrease OD-n levels. sdNVP at delivery did not affect longitudinal BED OD-n levels postdelivery. However, sdNVP appeared to modify the association between CD4 count at delivery and OD-n levels postdelivery. When estimating HIV incidence with the BED assay, special care may be required regarding women who received short-term ZDV for prevention of mother-to-child transmission.

Evaluation of a multiplex assay for estimation of HIV-1 incidence

Objectives

Accurate methods of estimating HIV-1 incidence are critical for monitoring the status of the epidemic and the impact of prevention strategies. Although several laboratory-based tests have been developed strictly for this purpose, several limitations exist and improved methods or technologies are needed. We sought to further optimize a previously described bead-based, HIV-1-specific multiplex assay with the capability of measuring multiple immune responses for determining recent infection.

Methods

We refined the customized HIV-1 Bio-Plex assay by determining cutoffs and mean durations of recency (MDR), based on the reactivity to longitudinal seroconversion specimens (n = 1347) from 311 ART-naïve, HIV-1-infected subjects. False-recent rates (FRRs) were calculated for various long-term cohorts, including AIDS patients, individuals on ART, and subtype C specimens. Incidence was estimated for each individual assay analyte from a simulated population with a known incidence of 1%. For improved incidence estimates, multi-analyte algorithms based on combinations of 3 to 6 analytes were evaluated and compared to the performance of each individual analyte.

Results

The MDR for the six analytes varied from 164.2 to 279.4 days, while the multi-analyte algorithm MDRs were less variable with a minimum and maximum value of 228.4 and 277.9 days, respectively. The FRRs for the 7 multi-analyte algorithms evaluated in this study varied from 0.3% to 3.1%, in a population of ART-naïve, long-term individuals. All algorithms yielded improved incidence estimates as compared to the individual analytes, predicting an incidence of 0.95% to 1.02%.

Conclusions

The HIV-specific multiplex assay described here measures several distinct immune responses in a single assay, allowing for the consideration of multi-analyte algorithms for improved HIV incidence estimates.

A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation

We derive a new method to estimate the age specific incidence of an infection with a differential mortality, using individual level infection status data from successive surveys. The method consists of a) an SI-type model to express the incidence rate in terms of the prevalence and its derivatives as well as the difference in mortality rate, and b) a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the prevalence and its derivatives. Estimates can in principle be obtained for any chosen age and time, and no particular assumptions are made about the epidemiological or demographic context. This is in contrast with earlier methods for estimating incidence from prevalence data, which work with aggregated data, and the aggregated effect of demographic and epidemiological rates over the time interval between prevalence surveys. Numerical simulation of HIV epidemics, under the presumption of known excess mortality due to infection, shows improved control of bias and variance, compared to previous methods. Our analysis motivates for a) effort to be applied to obtain accurate estimates of excess mortality rates as a function of age and time among HIV infected individuals and b) use of individual level rather than aggregated data in order to estimate HIV incidence rates at times between two prevalence surveys.

Risk Factor Detection as a Metric of STARHS Performance for HIV Incidence Surveillance Among Female Sex Workers in Kigali, Rwanda

Background:

The epidemiologic utility of STARHS hinges not only on producing accurate estimates of HIV incidence, but also on identifying risk factors for recent HIV infection.

Methods:

As part of an HIV seroincidence study, 800 Rwandan female sex workers (FSW) were HIV tested, with those testing positive further tested by BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays. A sample of HIV-negative (N=397) FSW were followed prospectively for HIV seroconversion. We compared estimates of risk factors for: 1) prevalent HIV infection; 2) recently acquired HIV infection (RI) based on three different STARHS classifications (BED alone, Ax-AI alone, BED/Ax-AI combined); and 3) prospectively observed seroconversion.

Results:

There was mixed agreement in risk factors between methods. HSV-2 coinfection and recent STI treatment were associated with both prevalent HIV infection and all three measures of recent infection. A number of risk factors were associated only with prevalent infection, including widowhood, history of forced sex, regular alcohol consumption, prior imprisonment, and current breastfeeding. Number of sex partners in the last 3 months was associated with recent infection based on BED/Ax-AI combined, but not other STARHS-based recent infection outcomes or prevalent infection. Risk factor estimates for prospectively observed seroconversion differed in magnitude and direction from those for recent infection via STARHS.

Conclusions:

Differences in risk factor estimates by each method could reflect true differences in risk factors between the prevalent, recently, or newly infected populations, the effect of study interventions (among those followed prospectively), or assay misclassification. Similar investigations in other populations/settings are needed to further establish the epidemiologic utility of STARHS for identifying risk factors, in addition to incidence rate estimation.

Decreased specificity of an assay for recent infection in HIV-1-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral treatment: implications for incidence estimates

The aim of this study was to estimate the rate of misclassification in treated HIV patients who initiated treatment at the chronic stage of HIV infection using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) that discriminates between recent infection (RI; within 6 months) and established infection. The performance of EIA-RI was evaluated in 96 HIV-1 chronically infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) with an undetectable viral load (VL) for at least 3 years. Demographic data, HIV-1 viral load, CD4(+) T-cell count, viral subtype, and treatment duration were collected. The subset of misclassified patients was further analyzed using samples collected annually. The impact on incidence estimates was evaluated by simulation. The specificity in treated patients was significantly lower (70.8 to 77.1%) than that observed in untreated patients (93.3 to 99.3%, P < 0.001). Patients falsely classified as recently infected had been treated for a longer period and had longer-term viral suppression than those correctly classified. The loss of specificity of the test due to treatment may have a dramatic impact on the accuracy of the incidence estimates, with a major impact when HIV prevalence is high. The cross-sectional studies intended to derive HIV incidence must collect information on treatment or, alternatively, should include detection of antiretroviral drugs in blood specimens to rule out treated patients from the calculations.

Development and characterization of a bead-based, multiplex assay for estimation of recent HIV type 1 infection

Estimation of HIV-1 incidence is an important public health tool for understanding the status of the epidemic, identifying high-risk populations, and assessing various intervention strategies. Several laboratory-based methods have been developed for distinguishing recent from long-term HIV-1 infection; however, each exhibits some degree of misclassification, particularly among AIDS patients and those taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). To improve upon the limitations associated with measuring responses to a single analyte, we have developed a bead-based, multiplex assay for determination of HIV recent infection based on total antibody binding and antibody avidity to multiple analytes. An HIV-specific, multiplex panel was created by coupling the recombinant HIV-1 proteins p66, gp120, gp160, and gp41 to Bio-Plex COOH microspheres. Longitudinal plasma specimens from recent seroconverters were tested for reactivity to the coupled microspheres using the Bio-Plex 200 System. For each analyte, HIV-specific antibody binding and avidity increased for 1-2 years post-seroconversion, leading to a significant difference in reactivity between recent and long-term specimens. While the potential for misclassification of individuals diagnosed with AIDS or receiving ART appears to be minimal with avidity measures, the impact on total antibody binding was variable, depending on the individual analyte. This bead-based, HIV-specific multiplex assay measures several distinct immune responses in a single assay plate, allowing for sampling of multiple analytes in the determination of recent infection, which could aid in the development of improved statistical methods or algorithms that will more accurately estimate HIV incidence.

Multiple HIV-1-specific IgG3 responses decline during acute HIV-1: implications for detection of incident HIV infection

OBJECTIVE

Different HIV-1 antigen specificities appear in sequence after HIV-1 transmission and the immunoglobulin G (IgG) subclass responses to HIV antigens are distinct from each other. The initial predominant IgG subclass response to HIV-1 infection consists of IgG1 and IgG3 antibodies with a noted decline in some IgG3 antibodies during acute HIV-1 infection. Thus, we postulate that multiple antigen-specific IgG3 responses may serve as surrogates for the relative time since HIV-1 acquisition.

DESIGN

We determined the magnitude, peak, and half-life of HIV-1 antigen-specific IgG1 and IgG3 antibodies in 41 HIV-1-infected individuals followed longitudinally from acute infection during the first appearance of HIV-1-specific antibodies through approximately 6 months after infection.

METHODS

We used quantitative HIV-1-binding antibody multiplex assays and exponential decay models to estimate concentrations of IgG1 and IgG3 antibodies to eight different HIV-1 proteins including gp140 Env, gp120 Env, gp41 Env, p66 reverse transcriptase, p31 Integrase, Tat, Nef, and p55 Gag proteins during acute/recent HIV-1 infection.

RESULTS

Among HIV-1-specific IgG3 responses, anti-gp41 IgG3 antibodies were the first to appear. We found that anti-gp41 Env IgG3 and anti-p66 reverse transcriptase IgG3 antibodies, in addition to anti-Gag IgG3 antibodies, each consistently and measurably declined after acute infection, in contrast to the persistent antigen-specific IgG1 responses.

CONCLUSION

The detailed measurements of the decline in multiple HIV-specific IgG3 responses simultaneous with persistent IgG1 responses during acute and recent HIV-1 infection could serve as markers for detection of incident HIV infection.

Estimates of HIV-1 incidence based on serological methods: a brief methodological review

The paper reviews the serological methods employed in the estimation of HIV incidence based on cross-sectional studies, as well as the main findings from studies carried out in Brazil that have used such methods. Each method is briefly described, as well as their advantages and limitations. The different methods are also analyzed as a set of complementary but sometimes contradictory strategies under permanent criticism and review, still far from a gold standard. Finally, an additional question--central to the accurate monitoring of the AIDS epidemic using such methods--is discussed: whether the different methods should or should not be adjusted. The debate is open and controversy should be viewed as an unavoidable consequence of a very dynamic research field, informed by the progress in sciences as diverse as epidemiology, biostatistics, mathematical modeling and different branches of basic science, such as immunology, virology, and molecular biology.

New method for estimating HIV incidence and time from infection to diagnosis using HIV surveillance data: results for France

OBJECTIVE

To estimate HIV incidence and time between HIV infection and diagnosis of infection.

DESIGN

We devised a new model for estimating the incidence of HIV infection and the time between infection and diagnosis from HIV surveillance data. Our approach takes into account temporal changes in HIV test-seeking behaviors and requires few data on individuals newly diagnosed with HIV (i.e. date of diagnosis and clinical status at diagnosis). Using our new approach, we analyzed data for patients newly diagnosed with HIV in France between April 2003 and December 2008.

RESULTS

The estimated mean time between infection and diagnosis ranged from 37.0 months among men who have sex with men to approximately 53.0 months among heterosexual men. Intermediate values were obtained for injecting drug users and heterosexual women. We estimated that mean times changed very slightly (≤1.2 months) during the period 2004-2007: it shortened among MSM, remained stable among non-French-national heterosexual men, and lengthened in all the other exposure categories. We estimated that the total number of new infections increased, but not significantly, between 2004 and 2007, reaching 7851 [95% confidence interval 5400-9919] in 2007. MSM accounted for the largest number of new infections (38%).

CONCLUSION

HIV continues to spread in France, and the average time between infection and HIV diagnosis remains excessively long. New policies to expand the offer and acceptance of voluntary HIV testing are thus urgently needed. Our method will also be very useful to monitor and evaluate the impact of future HIV testing policies.

Current and future assays for identifying recent HIV infections at the population level

The precise diagnosis of recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is crucial for estimating HIV incidence, defined as the number of new infections in a population, per person at risk, during a specified time period. Incidence assessment is considered to be a tool for surveillance, public health and research. Differentiating recent from long-term HIV infections is possible thanks to the evaluation of HIV-specific immune response development or viral markers measurement. Several methods that enable the recognition of recent HIV-1 infection with the use of a single blood specimen have been developed, and their value for use in population level studies has been demonstrated. However, they are still inadequate due to a variable window period and false recent rates among HIV clades and across populations. Application of these assays at an individual level is far more questionable because of person-to-person variability in the antibody response and the course of HIV infection, and because of the prospective regulatory approval requirements.

In this article we review the principles and the limitations of the currently available major laboratory techniques that allow detection of recent HIV infection. The assays based on the alteration of serological parameters, as well as the newest method based on an increase of HIV genetic diversity with the progress of infection, are described.

Augmented cross-sectional studies with abbreviated follow-up for estimating HIV incidence

Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation based on a sensitive and less-sensitive test offers great advantages over the traditional cohort study. However, its use has been limited due to concerns about the false negative rate of the less-sensitive test, reflecting the phenomenon that some subjects may remain negative permanently on the less-sensitive test. Wang and Lagakos (2010, Biometrics 66, 864-874) propose an augmented cross-sectional design that provides one way to estimate the size of the infected population who remain negative permanently and subsequently incorporate this information in the cross-sectional incidence estimator. In an augmented cross-sectional study, subjects who test negative on the less-sensitive test in the cross-sectional survey are followed forward for transition into the nonrecent state, at which time they would test positive on the less-sensitive test. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the appropriate length of follow-up and the size of the infected population who remain nonreactive permanently to the less-sensitive test. In this article, we assess the impact of varying follow-up time on the resulting incidence estimators from an augmented cross-sectional study, evaluate the robustness of cross-sectional estimators to assumptions about the existence and the size of the subpopulation who will remain negative permanently, and propose a new estimator based on abbreviated follow-up time (AF). Compared to the original estimator from an augmented cross-sectional study, the AF estimator allows shorter follow-up time and does not require estimation of the mean window period, defined as the average time between detectability of HIV infection with the sensitive and less-sensitive tests. It is shown to perform well in a wide range of settings. We discuss when the AF estimator would be expected to perform well and offer design considerations for an augmented cross-sectional study with abbreviated follow-up.

More and better information to tackle HIV epidemics: towards improved HIV incidence assays

Timothy Hallett and colleagues from the Incidence Assay Critical Path Working Group argue that a quick, easy, valid, and precise method of estimating HIV incidence in populations is needed, and discuss several new technologies to address this need.

Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

Background

In June 2001, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) set a target of reducing HIV prevalence among young women and men, aged 15 to 24 years, by 25% in the worst-affected countries by 2005, and by 25% globally by 2010. We assessed progress toward this target in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, using repeated household-based population serosurvey data. We also validated the representativeness of surveillance data from young pregnant women, aged 15 to 24 years, attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics, which UNAIDS recommends for monitoring population HIV prevalence trends in this age group. Changes in socio-demographic characteristics and reported sexual behaviour are investigated.

Methods

Progress towards the UNGASS target was measured by calculating the proportional change in HIV prevalence among youth and young ANC attendees over three survey periods (round 1: 1998-2000; round 2: 2001-2003; and round 3: 2003-2005). The Z-score test was used to compare differences in trends between the two data sources. Characteristics of participants and trends in sexual risk behaviour were analyzed using Student's and two-tailed Z-score tests.

Results

HIV prevalence among youth in the general population declined by 50.7% (from 12.2% to 6.0%) from round 1 to 3. Intermediary trends showed a large decline from round 1 to 2 of 60.9% (from 12.2% to 4.8%), offset by an increase from round 2 to 3 of 26.0% (from 4.8% to 6.0%). Among young ANC attendees, the proportional decline in prevalence of 43.5% (from 17.9% to 10.1%) was similar to that in the population (test for differences in trend: p value = 0.488) although ANC data significantly underestimated the population prevalence decline from round 1 to 2 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.003) and underestimated the increase from round 2 to 3 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.012). Reductions in risk behaviour between rounds 1 and 2 may have been responsible for general population prevalence declines.

Conclusions

In Manicaland, Zimbabwe, the 2005 UNGASS target to reduce HIV prevalence by 25% was achieved. However, most prevention gains occurred before 2003. ANC surveillance trends overall were an adequate indicator of trends in the population, although lags were observed. Behaviour data and socio-demographic characteristics of participants are needed to interpret ANC trends.

Misclassification of recent HIV-1 seroconversion in sub-Saharan Africa using the sensitive/less sensitive technique

Background

In resource-limited settings where HIV-1 is endemic, there is a need for simple, inexpensive but effective rapid methods for detecting recent infections and estimating incidence for the purposes of surveillance and management. We sort to determine possible reasons for reported misclassifications of recent HIV-1 seroconversion as determined with the S/LS assay in sub-Saharan Africa.

Findings

We used the modified Determine HIV-1/2 sensitive/less sensitive method for determining recent HIV-1 seroconversion to determine recent infections among ELISA repeat HIV-1 positive samples from blood donors. Furthermore, HIV-1 seropositivity was confirmed using a line immunoassay and the results used to validate the performance of the modified Determine HIV-1/2 S/LS assay. The results confirmed reported misclassifications of recent HIV-1 seroconversion in sub-Saharan Africa. It was noted that, lack of confirmation of HIV-1 seropositivity in suspected cases of HIV-1 contributed to misclassifications.

Conclusions

It was concluded that, with confirmation of HIV-1 seropositivity, the modified Determine HIV-1/2 S/LS assay will be a rapid and cost effective method for determining HIV-1 recent infections and estimating incidence in resource-limited settings. The need for detailed studies to validate simple methods for determining recent HIV-1 infections is emphasized.

Dual testing algorithm of BED-CEIA and AxSYM Avidity Index assays performs best in identifying recent HIV infection in a sample of Rwandan sex workers

BACKGROUND

To assess the performance of BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays in estimating HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Kigali, Rwanda.

METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS

Eight hundred FSW of unknown HIV status were HIV tested; HIV-positive women had BED and Ax-AI testing at baseline and ≥12 months later to estimate assay false-recent rates (FRR). STARHS-based HIV incidence was estimated using the McWalter/Welte formula, and adjusted with locally derived FRR and CD4 results. HIV incidence and local assay window periods were estimated from a prospective cohort of FSW. At baseline, 190 HIV-positive women were BED and Ax-AI tested; 23 were classified as recent infection (RI). Assay FRR with 95% confidence intervals were: 3.6% (1.2-8.1) (BED); 10.6% (6.1-17.0) (Ax-AI); and 2.1% (0.4-6.1) (BED/Ax-AI combined). After FRR-adjustment, incidence estimates by BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI were: 5.5/100 person-years (95% CI 2.2-8.7); 7.7 (3.2-12.3); and 4.4 (1.4-7.3). After CD4-adjustment, BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI incidence estimates were: 5.6 (2.6-8.6); 9.7 (5.0-14.4); and 4.7 (2.0-7.5). HIV incidence rates in the first and second 6 months of the cohort were 4.6 (1.6-7.7) and 2.2 (0.1-4.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Adjusted incidence estimates by BED/Ax-AI combined were similar to incidence in the first 6 months of the cohort. Furthermore, false-recent rate on the combined BED/Ax-AI algorithm was low and substantially lower than for either assay alone. Improved assay specificity with time since seroconversion suggests that specificity would be higher in population-based testing where more individuals have long-term infection.

Prevalence of transmitted HIV drug resistance in Botswana: lessons learned from the HIVDR-Threshold Survey conducted among women presenting for routine antenatal care as part of the 2007 national sentinel survey

The emergence and spread of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) poses a major threat to the success of the rapidly expanding antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in resource-limited countries. The World Health Organization recommends the use of the HIV Drug Resistance Threshold Survey (HIVDR-TS) as an affordable means to monitor the presence of TDR in these settings. We report our experiences and results of the 2007 HIVDR-TS in Botswana, a country with one of the longest-existing national public ART programs in Africa. The HIVDR-TS and HIV-1 incidence testing were performed in the two largest national sites as part of the 2007 antenatal Botswana Sentinel Survey. The HIVDR-TS showed no significant drug resistance mutations (TDR less than 5%) in one site. TDR prevalence, however, could not be ascertained at the second site due to low sample size. The agreement between HIVDR-TS eligibility criteria and laboratory-based methodologies (i.e., BED-CEIA and LS-EIA) in identifying recently HIV-1 infected adults was poor. Five years following the establishment of Botswana's public ART program, the prevalence of TDR remains low. The HIVDR-TS methodology has limitations for low-density populations as in Botswana, where the majority of antenatal sites are too small to recruit sufficient numbers of patients. In addition, the eligibility criteria (age <25 years and parity (first pregnancy)) of the HIVDR-TS performed poorly in identifying recent HIV-1 infections in Botswana. An alternative sampling strategy should be considered for the surveillance of HIVDR in Botswana and similar geographic settings.

Augmented cross-sectional prevalence testing for estimating HIV incidence

Estimation of an HIV incidence rate based on a cross-sectional sample of individuals evaluated with both a sensitive and less-sensitive diagnostic test offers important advantages to incidence estimation based on a longitudinal cohort study. However, the reliability of the cross-sectional approach has been called into question because of two major concerns. One is the difficulty in obtaining a reliable external approximation for the mean "window period" between detectability of HIV infection with the sensitive and less-sensitive test, which is used in the cross-sectional estimation procedure. The other is how to handle false negative results with the less-sensitive diagnostic test; that is, subjects who may test negative-implying a recent infection-long after they are infected. We propose and investigate an augmented design for cross-sectional incidence estimation studies in which subjects found in the recent infection state are followed for transition to the nonrecent infection state. Inference is based on likelihood methods that account for the length-biased nature of the window periods of subjects found in the recent infection state, and relate the distribution of their forward recurrence times to the population distribution of the window period. The approach performs well in simulation studies and eliminates the need for external approximations of the mean window period and, where applicable, the false negative rate.

HIV incidence estimation using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay: systematic review and sensitivity analysis

BACKGROUND

HIV incidence estimates are essential for understanding the evolution of the HIV epidemic and the impact of interventions. Tests for recent HIV infection allow incidence estimation based on a single cross-sectional survey. The BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (BED assay) is a commercially available and widely used test for recent HIV infection.

METHODS

In a systematic literature search for BED assay studies, we identified 1181 unique studies, 1138 of which were excluded based on titles or abstracts. We conducted reviews of the 43 remaining publications and a further 23 studies identified on conference Web sites or by colleagues. Thirty-nine articles were included in the final review. We investigated the sensitivity of incidence values to various estimation methods and parameter choices.

RESULTS

BED assay surveys have been conducted on 5 continents in general populations and high-risk groups, using 1 or more of 10 distinct incidence formulae. Most studies used estimators that do not account for assay imperfection. Those studies that correct for assay imperfection commonly do not use locally valid assay parameters. Incidence estimates were very sensitive to methodological and parameter choices. Most confidence intervals provided good assessment of uncertainty due to counting error, but only a few incorporated parameter uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

BED assay surveys can produce valid HIV incidence estimates, but many studies have not sufficiently accounted for assay imperfection. Future studies should (1) report all information necessary for incidence point and uncertainty estimation, (2) use an unbiased estimator with locally valid assay calibration parameters, and (3) compute confidence intervals that take into account parameter uncertainty.

Evaluating the BED capture enzyme immunoassay to estimate HIV incidence among adults in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Serological assays for estimating HIV-1 incidence are prone to misclassification, limiting the accuracy of the incidence estimate. Adjustment factors have been developed and recommended for estimating assay-based HIV-1 incidence in cross-sectional settings. We evaluated the performance of the recommended adjustment factors for estimating incidence in national HIV surveys in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The BED-capture enzyme immunoassay was applied to stored blood specimens from (1) pregnant women aged 15-49 years attending antenatal clinics in Côte d'Ivoire (1998-2004), (2) adults aged 15-49 years participating in a demographic health survey in Kenya (2003), and (3) adults aged 15-49 years participating in a national household serosurvey in South Africa (2005). Assay-derived incidence estimates were corrected for misclassification using recommended adjustment factors and, where possible, were compared to mathematically modeled incidence in the same populations. Trends in HIV prevalence were compared to trends in assay-derived incidence to assess plausibility in the assay-derived trends. Unadjusted incidence was 3.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.3-4.5] in Côte d'Ivoire, 3.5% (2.7-4.3) in Kenya, and 4.4% (CI 2.3-6.5]) in South Africa. Adjusted incidence was 2.9% (CI 2.1-3.7) in Côte d'Ivoire, 2.6% (CI 2.0-3.2) in Kenya, and 2.4% (CI 1.7-3.1) in South Africa. After adjustment, peak incidence shifted from older to younger age groups in Côte d'Ivoire and South Africa. Modeled HIV incidence was 1.0% (CI 1.02-1.08) in Kenya and 2.0% (CI 1.7-2.4) in South Africa. After applying the recommended adjustments factors, adjusted assay-derived estimates remained implausibly high in two of three populations evaluated. For more accurate measures of assay-derived population incidence, adjustment factors must be locally derived and validated. Until improved assays are available, caution should be applied in the use and interpretation of data from incidence assays.

Antiretroviral treatment of primary HIV infection to reduce onward transmission

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review will discuss the role of antiretroviral therapy to treat primary HIV infection (PHI) as a strategy to prevent onward viral transmission.

RECENT FINDINGS

Novel technology has greatly enhanced the appreciation of the characteristics of recently transmitted HIV-1 variants. Recent primate data demonstrate marked enhanced infectiousness of viral variants isolated from acutely infected macaques compared with viruses isolated from animals in the chronic phase of disease. These data are supported by phylogenetic analyses of recently transmitted cases in humans, implying that individuals with PHI may contribute disproportionately to onward transmission at a population level.

SUMMARY

In the absence of randomized clinical trial data supporting individual benefit of antiretroviral therapy, targeting and treating individuals with PHI as a public health intervention strategy represent a paradigm shift from current treatment strategies based around proven individual benefit alone. However, there is increasing evidence that PHI contributes disproportionately to viral transmission at a population level and failure to incorporate the potential role PHI plays, particularly in focused epidemics, maybe a naïve omission of many of the current mathematical models evaluating the impact of universal test and treat on population-level HIV incidence.

Rethinking prevention of HIV type 1 infection

Research on the prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection is at a critical juncture. Major methodological challenges to performing prevention trials have emerged, and one after another promising biomedical interventions have failed to reduce the incidence of HIV-1 infection. Nevertheless, there is growing optimism that progress can be achieved in the near term. Mathematical modeling indicates that 2 new strategies, "test and treat" and preexposure prophylaxis, could have a major impact on the incidence of HIV-1 infection. Will our hopes be justified? We review the potential strengths and limitations of these antiretroviral "treatment as prevention" strategies and outline other new options for reducing the incidence of HIV-1 infection in the near term. By maximizing the potential of existing interventions, developing other effective strategies, and combining them in an optimal manner, we have the opportunity to bring the HIV-1 epidemic under control.

Acute HIV-1 infection is highly prevalent in Ugandan adults with suspected malaria

OBJECTIVES

Acute febrile illnesses consistent with malaria are the most common presentation at health clinics in sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 30-50% of outpatient visits. The symptoms of acute HIV infection can mimic acute malaria. We investigated whether acute HIV infections could be identified among adults with suspected malaria at rural health centers in Uganda.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study of 1000 consecutive patients referred for malaria blood smears at each of seven government health centers, of which 2893 (41%) were 13 years or older and tested for HIV.

METHODS

HIV enzyme immunoassay antibody testing was performed on dried blood spots and confirmed by western blot. Enzyme immunoassay-nonreactive and enzyme immunoassay-reactive, western blot-unconfirmed samples were pooled (10/pool) and tested for HIV RNA by nucleic acid amplification testing. We defined acute HIV infection as HIV-1 RNA positive with a negative or indeterminate HIV-1 western blot pattern and early HIV infection as HIV-1 RNA positive with a positive western blot pattern, but with a BED-corrected optical density of below 0.8.

RESULTS

Of 2893 patients evaluated, 324 (11%) had test results indicating HIV infection. Overall, 30 patients (1.0%) had acute HIV infection, 56 (1.8%) had early HIV infection, and 238 (8%) had established HIV infection. Acute HIV infections were more prevalent at sites with higher HIV prevalence and lower malaria endemicity.

CONCLUSION

At multiple sites in Uganda, 1-3% of adults with suspected malaria had acute or early HIV infection. These findings highlight a major opportunity for expanding recognition of acute and early HIV infection in Africa.

HIV diagnostics: challenges and opportunities

Accurate HIV diagnostic testing continues to pose challenges, but there are also opportunities for assay performance improvements in key areas for specific intended-use settings. The genetic diversity of HIV can result in false and discordant results in assays that fail to detect new variant strains. The use of antiretroviral therapies has resulted in drug-resistant variants that require monitoring by sequencing and genotyping methods. Nucleic acid testing is the most sensitive and reliable platform for detection, but it is costly and limited to centralized testing facilities, making implementation difficult in resource-limited settings where HIV has hit the hardest. Rapid antibody tests suitable for point-of-care use are becoming more accessible in resource-limited settings, but these tests may not detect HIV during the acute infection stage. Emerging antigen/antibody combination assays are viable alternatives to nucleic acid testing for diagnosis of recent infections. Although patient monitoring (e.g., via CD4+ T-cell count and viral load determination) and infant diagnoses still rely on clinical laboratory-based testing, point-of-care options are being developed. There are other technical challenges to HIV diagnostic testing and emerging biodetection technologies that may be able to address them, but they are not yet proven.

Can HIV incidence testing be used for evaluating HIV intervention programs? A reanalysis of the Orange Farm male circumcision trial (ANRS-1265)

Background

The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of male circumcision (MC) on HIV acquisition estimated using HIV incidence assays and to compare it to the effect measured by survival analysis.

Methods

We used samples collected during the MC randomized controlled trial (ANRS-1265) conducted in Orange Farm (South Africa) among men aged 18 to 24. Among the 2946 samples collected at the last follow-up visit, 194 HIV-positive samples were tested using two incidence assays: Calypte HIV-EIA (BED) and an avidity assay based on the BioRad HIV1/2+O EIA (AI). The results of the assays were also combined (BED-AI). The samples included the 124 participants (4.2% of total) who were HIV-positive at randomization. The protective effect was calculated as one minus the intention-to-treat incidence rate ratio in an uncorrected manner and with correction for misclassifications, with simple theoretical formulae. Theoretical calculations showed that the uncorrected intention-to-treat effect was approximately independent of the value of the incidence assay window period and was the ratio of the number tested recent seroconverters divided by the number tested HIV-negative between the randomization groups. We used cut-off values ranging from 0.325 to 2.27 for BED, 31.6 to 96 for AI and 0.325-31.6 to 1.89-96 for BED-AI. Effects were corrected for long-term specificity using a previously published formula. 95% Confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by bootstrap resampling.

Results

With the highest cut-off values, the uncorrected protective effects evaluated by BED, AI and BED-AI were 50% (95%CI: 27% to 66%), 50% (21% to 69%) and 63% (36% to 81%). The corrections for misclassifications were lower than 50% of the number of tested recent. The corrected effects were 53% (30% to 70%), 55% (25% to 77%) and 67% (38% to 86%), slightly higher than the corresponding uncorrected values. These values were consistent with the previously reported protective effect of 60% (34% to 76%) obtained with survival analysis.

Conclusions

HIV incidence assays may be employed to assess the effect of interventions using cross-sectional data.

Estimation of HIV-1 incidence among five focal populations in Dehong, Yunnan: a hard hit area along a major drug trafficking route

Background

Since 1989 when the first 146 HIV positives in China were identified, Dehong Prefecture had been one of the areas hardest-hit by HIV in China. The local and national governments have put substantial financial resources into tackling the HIV epidemic in Dehong from 2004. The objective of this study was to track dynamic changes in HIV-1 prevalence and incidence among five focal populations in Dehong and to assess the impact of HIV prevention and control efforts.

Methods

Consecutive cross-sectional surveys conducted in five focal populations between 2004 and 2008. Specimens seropositive for HIV were tested with the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay to identify recent seroconversions (median, 155 days) using normalized optical density of 0.8 and adjustments.

Results

From 2004 to 2008, estimated annual HIV incidence among injecting drug users (IDUs) decreased significantly [from 15.0% (95% CI = 11.4%-18.5%) in 2004 to 4.3% (95% CI = 2.4%-6.2%) in 2008; trend test P < 0.0001]. The incidence among other focal populations, such as HIV discordant couples (varying from 5.5% to 4.7%), female sex workers (varying from 1.4% to 1.3%), pregnant women (0.1%), and pre-marital couples (0.2 to 0.1%) remained stable. Overall, the proportion of recent HIV-1 infections was higher among females than males (P < 0.0001).

Conclusions

The HIV epidemic in Dehong continued to expand during a five-year period but at a slowing rate among IDUs, and HIV incidence remains high among IDUs and discordant couples. Intensive prevention measures should target sub-groups at highest risk to further slow the epidemic and control the migration of HIV to other areas of China, and multivariate analysis is needed to explore which measures are more effective for different populations.

Significantly diminished long-term specificity of the BED capture enzyme immunoassay among patients with HIV-1 with very low CD4 counts and those on antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the proportion who test as recent infections by the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED) among patients about to commence, and those receiving, antiretroviral therapy.

DESIGN

Cryopreserved plasma samples from HIV patients on the national antiretroviral treatment (ART) rollout program at Tygerberg Hospital HIV clinic, South Africa, were tested using the BED assay.

PARTICIPANTS

Five hundred five patients qualifying for ART were included in this study.

METHOD

All plasma samples from each patient were tested by BED. Basic demographic data, HIV-1 viral load, and CD4 count results were obtained from the laboratory database.

MAIN OUTCOME

The proportion presenting as false recently infected is reported.

RESULTS

Among patients, with presumed long-term HIV-1 infections, about to commence ART, 11.2% [95% confidence interval (CI): 8.3 to 14.5%] tested recent by BED. The proportion was higher among patients with CD4 counts < 50 cells per microliter [odds ratio 2.63, 95% CI: 1.39 to 5.00] and log10 HIV-1 viral load less than 4 [odds ratio 3.03, 95% CI: 1.05 to 9.09]. Proportions testing false recent increased from 11.2% before ART to 17%, 25%, 38%, and 56% at 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 years, respectively, after ART initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

If the BED method is to be used for the accurate estimation of HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys, it will be essential, before other statistical adjustment methods, to identify, at least, all cases who are on ART and all those with CD4 counts < 50 cells per microliter. The more general remaining problem is the unequivocal identification of all persons with long-term HIV infections.

Better control of early viral replication is associated with slower rate of elicited antiviral antibodies in the detuned enzyme immunoassay during primary HIV-1C infection

BACKGROUND

Estimation of HIV incidence rates is important for timing interventions, planning prevention studies, and monitoring the epidemic. This requires accurate estimation of the "recency period" (also known as the "window period") between seroconversion and achievement of specific detectable levels of anti-HIV antibody titers, such as the standardized optical density (SOD) in the early phase of HIV-1 infection.

METHODS

To obtain a better understanding of interpatient variation of the recency period, prospective measurements of antiviral antibody titers in the early phase of HIV-1 subtype C infection were quantified by Vironostika-LS. Time of seroconversion was estimated by Fiebig staging.

RESULTS

The profiles of SOD values during the first year of infection commonly showed slow initial increase followed by a more rapid increase, although in some patients, SOD values increased rapidly soon after seroconversion. Using an SOD cutoff of 1.0, the average duration of the recency period in subtype C infection in the local epidemic in Botswana was estimated to be 151 days (95% confidence interval: 130 to 172 days) post seroconversion. The recency period was significantly associated (P = 0.007) with the level of viral replication during the first 2-3 months post seroconversion. Reduction of SOD values after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was a dominant pattern in antiretroviral drug (ARV)-treated subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that HIV incidence estimation based on sensitive/less sensitive enzyme immunoassay cross-sectional testing could be potentially improved by incorporation of viral load levels at the time of detection of a recent infection.

Development of two avidity-based assays to detect recent HIV type 1 seroconversion using a multisubtype gp41 recombinant protein

Current laboratory methods to detect recent HIV-1 infection for the estimation of incidence have various limitations, including varying performance in different subtypes or populations. Therefore, new methods are needed to detect recent infections with increased specificity. We developed a recombinant protein, rIDR-M, that covered divergent sequences from the immunodominant region (IDR) of gp41 from all major subtypes and recombinants of HIV-1 group M and expressed in Escherichia coli. The rIDR-M protein was highly reactive with HIV antibodies in sera from different subtypes and equivalently detected antibodies to divergent subtypes B and AE from Thailand, in contrast to individual gp41 peptides derived from respective subtypes, suggesting that it can be used for incidence assays. The protein was used in two different assay formats to measure antibody avidity: (1) a two-well avidity index assay (AI-EIA) and (2) a new one-well limiting antigen avidity assay (LAg-avidity EIA), both with a pH 3.0 buffer to dissociate low-avidity antibodies present during early infection. Limiting the amount of antigen allowed detection of recent HIV-1 infection, with or without dissociation buffer, but the detection was most efficient when the pH 3.0 dissociation buffer was included. When a well-characterized 41-member seroincidence panel (20 recent and 21 long-term) was used, both the two-well AI-EIA and one-well LAg-avidity EIA efficiently distinguished recent and long-term infections. The new avidity-based assays using rIDR-M antigen may improve the accuracy of detecting recent HIV-1 infection and allow a better estimation of incidence in diverse HIV-1 subtypes.

On the use of adjusted cross-sectional estimators of HIV incidence

OBJECTIVE

To elucidate when and how cross-sectional estimators of HIV incidence rates based on a sensitive and less sensitive diagnostic test should be adjusted.

METHODS

Evaluate the statistical properties of unadjusted and adjusted cross-sectional estimators of HIV incidence, including the adjusted estimators considered by McDougal et al, for the 2 settings where (a) all infected subjects eventually become reactive to the less sensitive test, and (b) a subset of infected subjects indefinitely remain nonreactive to the less sensitive test. Derive the maximum likelihood estimator of incidence for the latter setting and use analytical results and simulation studies to compare the performance of the various estimators.

RESULTS

When every infected subject would eventually become reactive to the less sensitive test, the McDougal adjusted estimator is uniformly less precise than the unadjusted estimator and more susceptible to bias. When a subset of the infected population would indefinitely remain nonreactive to the less sensitive test, the McDougal adjusted estimator is less precise than the maximum likelihood estimator, which coincides with an estimator developed by McWalter and Welte using a mathematical modeling approach. When the assumed model is incorrect, the unadjusted estimator overestimates incidence, whereas the maximum likelihood estimator can be biased in either direction.

CONCLUSIONS

The standard unadjusted cross-sectional estimator of HIV incidence should be used when all infected individuals would eventually become reactive to the less sensitive test. When a subset of individuals would indefinitely remain nonreactive to the less sensitive test, the maximum likelihood estimator for this setting should be used. Characterizing the proportion of individuals who would indefinitely remain nonreactive is crucial for accurate estimation of HIV incidence.

Accuracy of serological assays for detection of recent infection with HIV and estimation of population incidence: a systematic review

We systematically reviewed the accuracy of serological tests for recent infections with HIV that have become widely used for measuring population patterns incidence of HIV. Across 13 different assays, sensitivity to detect recent infections ranged from 42-100% (median 89%). Specificity for detecting established infections was between 49.5% and 100% (median 86.8%) and was higher for infections of durations longer than 1 year (median 98%, range 31.5-100.0). For four different assays, comparisons were made between assay-derived population incidence estimates and a reference incidence estimate. The median percentage difference between the assay-derived incidence and reference incidence was 26.0%. Serological assays have reasonable sensitivity for the detection of recent infection with HIV, but are vulnerable to misclassifying established infections as recent-potentially leading to biases in incidence estimates. This conclusion is highly qualified by the apparent absence of a standardised approach to assay evaluation. There is an urgent need for an internationally agreed framework for evaluating and comparing these tests.

The risk of transfusion-transmitted infections in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Blood transfusions carry the risk of transmitting infections. This risk has been studied in detail in high-income countries but not in sub-Saharan Africa. This study estimates the risks of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), or hepatitis C virus (HCV) from a single unit of blood in sub-Saharan Africa.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A mathematical model was constructed to quantify transfusion risks across 45 sub-Saharan African countries using three components: the risk of a contaminated unit entering the blood supply, the risk that the unit will be given to a susceptible patient, and the risk that receipt of the unit will lead to infection in the recipient. Variables included prevalence of infection in donors, extent of blood testing, test sensitivity, and susceptibility of recipients. Data from the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region and a systematic review of the literature were used to parameterize the model. Uncertainty in the risk estimates was quantified using probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The median overall risks of becoming infected with HIV, HBV, and HCV from a blood transfusion in sub-Saharan Africa were 1, 4.3, and 2.5 infections per 1000 units, respectively. If annual transfusion requirements projected by the WHO were met, transfusions alone would be responsible for 28,595 HBV infections, 16,625 HCV infections, and 6650 HIV infections every year. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the true risks may be even higher.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to systematically quantify the risks of transfusion-transmitted infections across sub-Saharan Africa. Although the results are limited by the quality and quantity of available data, these may be the most reliable estimates at this time.

Performance of an immunoassay at detecting recent infection among reported HIV diagnoses

INTRODUCTION

An enzyme immunoassay to detect recent HIV-1 infection (EIA-RI) of less than 6 months is routinely performed on diagnoses reported to the National HIV case surveillance in France. We assessed the performance of the EIA-RI infection on this country population scale by measuring its agreement with other indicators of time since infection that were obtained through clinical, biological or testing history recorded on the surveillance reporting form.

METHODS

We used data from the National HIV case surveillance from its debut in March 2003 to June 2007. Infection within 6 months was defined as a negative test reported within 6 months prior to diagnosis. We further ascertained this definition by adding information about of a symptomatic primary infection or biological evidence of recent seroconversion. Infection established for more than 6 months was defined when a positive test had occurred more than 6 months prior to the reported diagnosis.

RESULTS

Time since infection could be ascertained in 6782 of 15, 331 (44.2%) HIV diagnoses. Assay sensitivity and specificity were 73.8 and 83.7%, respectively. Among the 1940 cases originating from Sub-Saharan Africa, sensitivity and specificity were 54.1 and 90.8%, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Assessment of the performance of the EIA-RI on a large and heterogeneous population revealed two major findings--significant discrepancies in timing from infection near the 180-day cutoff, and a performance that depends on the geographic origin of patients. This has implications for estimating the assay window period and in the perspective of incidence estimation from HIV case surveillance.

The potential role of biomarkers in HIV preventive vaccine trials

BACKGROUND

Successful conduct of HIV vaccine efficacy trials entails identification and enrollment of at-risk populations, assessment of appropriate end points as measures of vaccine efficacy for prevention of HIV acquisition, and amelioration of disease course among infected vaccinees, as well as identification of potential confounders or effect modifiers. Although not invariably useful and bringing their own cost in terms of measurement and validation, a variety of biomarkers may aid at each stage of trial conduct.

METHODS

A review of selected articles, chosen based on quality, relevance of the biomarker to HIV vaccine trials, and availability of the publication, was conducted. The authors also drew experience from current trials and other planned or ongoing trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarkers are available to assess HIV incidence in potential study populations, but care is needed in interpreting results of these assays. During trial conduct, sexually transmitted infections such as herpes simplex virus type 2 may act as effect modifiers on primary and secondary end points, including HIV incidence and set point viral load. The utility of sexually transmitted infection biomarkers will likely depend heavily on local epidemiology at clinical trial sites. Analyses from recent large HIV vaccine efficacy trials point to the complexities in interpreting trial results and underscore the potential utility of biomarkers in evaluating confounding and effect modification.

Advances and future directions in HIV surveillance in low- and middle-income countries

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To present recent advances in HIV/AIDS surveillance methods in low- and middle-income countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

From 2001 to 2008, 30 low- and middle-income countries implemented national population-based surveys with HIV testing. Antenatal clinic HIV sentinel surveillance sites in sub-Saharan Africa increased from just over 1000 in 2003-2004 to almost 2500 in 2005-2006, becoming more representative of rural areas. Between 2003 and 2007, at least 122 behavioral surveys in low- and middle-income countries used respondent-driven sampling for surveillance among high-risk populations, although many countries with concentrated epidemics continue to have major sentinel surveillance gaps. Improvements have been made in modeling estimates of number of persons HIV infected, and systems are now in place to measure HIV drug resistance. However, the reliable monitoring of trends and the measuring of HIV incidence, morbidity, and mortality is still a challenge.

SUMMARY

In the past 5 years, there have been substantial improvements in the quantity and quality of HIV surveillance studies, especially in the countries with high prevalence. Further efforts should be made in countries that lack fully implemented surveillance systems to improve HIV incidence, morbidity, and mortality surveillance and to use data more effectively.

Implications of and perspectives on HIV surveillance using a serological method to measure recent HIV infections in newly diagnosed individuals: results from a pilot study in Berlin, Germany, in 2005-2007

OBJECTIVES

This cross-sectional study was designed to pilot the analysis of clinical data, knowledge about and attitudes towards HIV/AIDS, and prevention and risk behaviour in persons recently infected with HIV.

METHODS

Blood samples and demographic, laboratory, clinical and behavioural data were collected from patients with newly diagnosed HIV infections. The BED IgG-capture ELISA (BED-CEIA) was used to determine the recency of infection.

RESULTS

Recent HIV infections contributed 54% [95% confidence interval (CI) 45; 64%] of infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) and 16% (95% CI 0; 39%) of infections in patients with other transmission risks (P=0.041). Recently infected MSM were characterized by younger age and higher viral load as compared with MSM who had longstanding infections (P=0.011 and 0.005, respectively). Symptoms during primary infection and patients' assumptions with regard to time of infection were significantly correlated with test results indicating whether or not the HIV infection was recently acquired (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Cross-sectional surveillance of recent HIV infections proved to be relevant to the identification of current risks for acquiring HIV infection. The high proportion of recent HIV infections in MSM and the even higher proportion in MSM younger than 30 years indicate ongoing HIV transmission in this group. The method will be used in future national HIV surveillance in Germany.

HIV incidence in rural South Africa: comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cBED assay testing

Background

The BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (cBED assay), a test of recent HIV infection, has been used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional HIV surveys. However, there has been concern that the assay overestimates HIV incidence to an unknown extent because it falsely classifies some individuals with non-recent HIV infections as recently infected. We used data from a longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa to measure the fraction of people with non-recent HIV infection who are falsely classified as recently HIV-infected by the cBED assay (the long-term false-positive ratio (FPR)) and compared cBED assay-based HIV incidence estimates to longitudinally measured HIV incidence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We measured the long-term FPR in individuals with two positive HIV tests (in the HIV surveillance, 2003–2006) more than 306 days apart (sample size n = 1,065). We implemented four different formulae to calculate HIV incidence using cBED assay testing (n = 11,755) and obtained confidence intervals (CIs) by directly calculating the central 95^th percentile of incidence values. We observed 4,869 individuals over 7,685 person-years for longitudinal HIV incidence estimation. The long-term FPR was 0.0169 (95% CI 0.0100–0.0266). Using this FPR, the cross-sectional cBED-based HIV incidence estimates (per 100 people per year) varied between 3.03 (95% CI 2.44–3.63) and 3.19 (95% CI 2.57–3.82), depending on the incidence formula. Using a long-term FPR of 0.0560 based on previous studies, HIV incidence estimates varied between 0.65 (95% CI 0.00–1.32) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.00–1.43). The longitudinally measured HIV incidence was 3.09 per 100 people per year (95% CI 2.69–3.52), after adjustment to the sex-age distribution of the sample used in cBED assay-based estimation.

Conclusions/Significance

In a rural community in South Africa with high HIV prevalence, the long-term FPR of the cBED assay is substantially lower than previous estimates. The cBED assay performs well in HIV incidence estimation if the locally measured long-term FPR is used, but significantly underestimates incidence when a FPR estimate based on previous studies in other settings is used.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 incidence among blood donors in France, 1992 through 2006: use of an immunoassay to identify recent infections

BACKGROUND

In France, blood donations found to be positive for the presence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) are further tested to detect recent infections (< or =180 days) using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA-RI) developed in 2002. The characteristics of recently infected donors, estimates of HIV-1 incidence, and the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HIV-1 are presented, in both first-time and repeat donors.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Of the 1027 donations found to be HIV-1-positive between 1992 and 2006, a total of 459 could be retrospectively tested with the EIA-RI. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the donor characteristics associated with recent infection. Incidence rates and residual risk obtained with the EIA-RI were compared to classical cohort estimates derived from repeat donor histories.

RESULTS

Of the 459 HIV-1-positive donors studied, 105 (22.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 19.2-27.0) were identified as recently infected. Factors independently associated with recent infection were repeat donor status (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 4.0; 95% CI, 2.4-6.9) and non-B subtypes (AOR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2-3.6). Incidence decreased from 4.3 (95% CI, 1.9-9.4) in 1992 through 1994 to 1.3 (95% CI, 0.6-2.8) per 10(5) in 2004 through 2006 in first-time donors and from 3.2 (95% CI, 2.0-5.0) to 0.8 (95% CI, 0.4-1.4) per 10(5) in repeat donors. Incidence and residual risk estimates were similar to those obtained with the classical cohort method.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that the EIA-RI can be used to estimate HIV-1 incidence in a population with low HIV incidence. The estimated HIV-1 incidence in the blood donor population confirms the extremely low risk (1 in 3,350,000 donations) of HIV-infected blood donations entering the blood supply in France.

HIV serological screening in a population of pregnant women in the Republic of Congo: suitability of different assays

Different strategies can be applied for the screening of HIV infection, depending on the local seroprevalence. Within a WHO type III strategy, we compared the results of two different second-line methods for HIV screening of a population of pregnant women in the Republic of Congo. Sera from 3614 consecutive pregnant women were tested for HIV with Genescreen Plus Ag/Ab EIA assay; positive specimens were retested with two different second-line methods. (Determine HIV-1/2 rapid test and Vironostika HIV Ag/Ab specific EIA assay). Discordant samples were tested with HIV-1/2 Western Blot and, if necessary, HIV RNA molecular assay. Of the 3614 sera, 221 were positive with Genscreen. Among them, 21 and 10 tested negative with Vironostika and Determine, respectively. A 100% correspondence with 3rd line confirmation test results was found in Genscreen positive/Vironostika negative samples, whereas a 5.5% overestimation of HIV seroprevalence was observed when Determine, instead of Vironostika, was used as second-line test. The choice of appropriate assays in adequate sequence, within the correct WHO strategy, is pivotal to minimize the risk of overtreatment of HIV infection.

Serological testing algorithm shows rising HIV incidence in a UK cohort of men who have sex with men: 10 years application

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether combining clinical data with the serological testing algorithm for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS) reliably identifies otherwise unrecognized recent infections and observe their trends.

DESIGN

Incorporation of STARHS into routine HIV diagnosis.

METHODS

STARHS was applied to serum collected between 1996 and 2005 at HIV diagnosis and routine clinical/laboratory markers of recent infections were determined. The recent infections were identified by conventional means, by STARHS, and by both combined.

RESULTS

Of 1526 infections diagnosed, 812 were new. Of these, 604 were in men who have sex with men (MSM); 208 in heterosexuals; 88% had serum available for STARHS, which identified 88 incident infections that would otherwise have been unrecognized (12% of all new infections, 34% of all recent infections). Of these, 88% reported recent high-risk sex; 47% reported seroconversion symptoms. STARHS confirmed recent infections in 71 of 74 (96%) known to be infected within 6 months by conventional methods. Combining both approaches, recent infections increased over time from 26% (1996) to 45% (2005) [P < 0.001]. STARHS results from 3% new diagnoses and 8% previous diagnoses were deemed false incident (associated with antiretroviral therapy, advanced disease or undetectable viral load). False incident results were only inexplicable in two individuals.

CONCLUSION

Adjunctive use of STARHS with clinical data identified a high and increasing proportion of new HIV diagnoses as recent infections, confirming significant ongoing transmission. Since 2002, 50% of new diagnoses among MSM were recent infections. Identification of additional recent infections by STARHS enables effective intervention that may benefit the individual and reduce onward transmission.

Comparison of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1-specific immunoglobulin G capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and the avidity index method for identification of recent HIV infections

The sensitivity and specificity of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1-specific immunoglobulin G capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (BED-CEIA) were compared with those of the avidity index method to identify recent HIV infection using a panel of 148 samples (81 patients) representing durations of infection ranging from 0 to 222 weeks. The results from the two tests were similar (sensitivity of 80% versus 74% [P = 0.53]; specificity of 86% versus 82% [P = 0.67]).