Validation of the BOOST Risk Stratification Tool as a Predictor of Unplanned 30-Day Readmission in Elderly Patients

A novel risk score predicting 30-day hospital re-admission of patients with acute stroke by machine learning model

BACKGROUND

The 30-day hospital re-admission rate is a quality measure of hospital care to monitor the efficiency of the healthcare system. The hospital re-admission of acute stroke (AS) patients is often associated with higher mortality rates, greater levels of disability and increased healthcare costs. The aim of our study was to identify predictors of unplanned 30-day hospital re-admissions after discharge of AS patients and define an early re-admission risk score (RRS).

METHODS

This observational, retrospective study was performed on AS patients who were discharged between 2014 and 2019. Early re-admission predictors were identified by machine learning models. The performances of these models were assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

Of 7599 patients with AS, 3699 patients met the inclusion criteria, and 304 patients (8.22%) were re-admitted within 30 days from discharge. After identifying the predictors of early re-admission by logistic regression analysis, RRS was obtained and consisted of seven variables: hemoglobin level, atrial fibrillation, brain hemorrhage, discharge home, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, one and more than one hospitalization in the previous year. The cohort of patients was then stratified into three risk categories: low (RRS = 0-1), medium (RRS = 2-3) and high (RRS >3) with re-admission rates of 5%, 8% and 14%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The identification of risk factors for early re-admission after AS and the elaboration of a score to stratify at discharge time the risk of re-admission can provide a tool for clinicians to plan a personalized follow-up and contain healthcare costs.

Risk factors for medication-related short-term readmissions in adults - a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Hospital readmissions due to medication-related problems occur frequently, burdening patients and caregivers emotionally and straining health care systems economically. In times of limited health care resources, interventions to mitigate the risk of medication-related readmissions should be prioritized to patients most likely to benefit. Focusing on general internal medicine patients, this scoping review aims to identify risk factors associated with drug-related 30-day hospital readmissions.

METHODS

We began by searching the Medline, Embase, and CINAHL databases from their inception dates to May 17, 2022 for studies reporting risk factors for 30-day drug-related readmissions. We included all peer-reviewed studies, while excluding literature reviews, conference abstracts, proceeding papers, editorials, and expert opinions. We also conducted backward citation searches of the included articles. Within the final sample, we analyzed the types and frequencies of risk factors mentioned.

RESULTS

After deduplication of the initial search results, 1159 titles and abstracts were screened for full-text adjudication. We read 101 full articles, of which we included 37. Thirteen more were collected via backward citation searches, resulting in a final sample of 50 articles. We identified five risk factor categories: (1) patient characteristics, (2) medication groups, (3) medication therapy problems, (4) adverse drug reactions, and (5) readmission diagnoses. The most commonly mentioned risk factors were polypharmacy, prescribing problems-especially underprescribing and suboptimal drug selection-and adherence issues. Medication groups associated with the highest risk of 30-day readmissions (mostly following adverse drug reactions) were antithrombotic agents, insulin, opioid analgesics, and diuretics. Preventable medication-related readmissions most often reflected prescribing problems and/or adherence issues.

CONCLUSIONS

This study's findings will help care teams prioritize patients for interventions to reduce medication-related hospital readmissions, which should increase patient safety. Further research is needed to analyze surrogate social parameters for the most common drug-related factors and their predictive value regarding medication-related readmissions.

Depressive symptoms and malnutrition are associated with other geriatric syndromes and increase risk for 30-Day readmission in hospitalized older adults: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Readmission in older adults is typically complex with multiple contributing factors. We aim to examine how two prevalent and potentially modifiable geriatric conditions - depressive symptoms and malnutrition - relate to other geriatric syndromes and 30-day readmission in hospitalized older adults.

METHODS

Consecutive admissions of patients ≥ 65 years to a general medical department were recruited over 16 months. Patients were screened for depression, malnutrition, delirium, cognitive impairment, and frailty at admission. Medical records were reviewed for poor oral intake and functional decline during hospitalization. Unplanned readmission within 30-days of discharge was tracked through the hospital's electronic health records and follow-up telephone interviews. We use directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to depict the relationship of depressive symptoms and malnutrition with geriatric syndromes that constitute covariates of interest and 30-day readmission outcome. Multiple logistic regression was performed for the independent associations of depressive symptoms and malnutrition with 30-day readmission, adjusting for variables based on DAG-identified minimal adjustment set.

RESULTS

We recruited 1619 consecutive admissions, with mean age 76.4 (7.9) years and 51.3% females. 30-day readmission occurred in 331 (22.0%) of 1,507 patients with follow-up data. Depressive symptoms, malnutrition, higher comorbidity burden, hospitalization in the one-year preceding index admission, frailty, delirium, as well as functional decline and poor oral intake during the index admission, were more commonly observed among patients who were readmitted within 30 days of discharge (P < 0.05). Patients with active depressive symptoms were significantly more likely to be frail (OR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.22-2.16), had poor oral intake (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.02-1.79) and functional decline during admission (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.11-2.23). Malnutrition at admission was significantly associated with frailty (OR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.07-2.19), delirium (OR = 2.33, 95% CI 1.60-3.39) cognitive impairment (OR = 1.88, 95% CI 1.39-2.54) and poor oral intake during hospitalization (OR = 2.70, 95% CI 2.01-3.64). In minimal adjustment set identified by DAG, depressive symptoms (OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.02-1.86) remained significantly associated with 30-day readmission. The association of malnutrition with 30-day readmission was no longer statistically significant after adjusting for age, ethnicity and depressive symptoms in the minimal adjustment set (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 0.99-1.98).

CONCLUSION

The observed causal associations support screening and targeted interventions for depressive symptoms and malnutrition during admission and in the post-acute period.

A prospective cohort study of two predictor models for 30-day emergency readmission in older patients

AIM

To undertake a prospective study of the accuracy of two models (LACE and BOOST) in predicting unplanned hospital readmission in older patients (>75 years).

METHODS

Data were collected from a single centre prospectively on 110 patients over 75 years old admitted to the acute medical unit. Follow-up was conducted at 30 days. The primary outcome was the c-statistic for both models.

RESULTS

The readmission rate was 32.7% and median age 82 years, and both BOOST and LACE scores were significantly higher in those readmitted compared with those who were not. C-statistics were calculated for both tools with BOOST score 0.667 (95% CI 0.559-0.775, P = .005) and LACE index 0.685 (95% CI 0.579-0.792, P = .002).

CONCLUSION

In this prospective study, both the BOOST and LACE scores were found to be significant yet poor, predictive models of hospital readmission. Recent hospitalisation (within the previous 6 months) was found to be the most significant contributing factor.

Man vs. Machine: Comparing Physician vs. Electronic Health Record-Based Model Predictions for 30-Day Hospital Readmissions

BACKGROUND

Electronic health record (EHR)-based readmission risk prediction models can be automated in real-time but have modest discrimination and may be missing important readmission risk factors. Clinician predictions of readmissions may incorporate information unavailable in the EHR, but the comparative usefulness is unknown. We sought to compare clinicians versus a validated EHR-based prediction model in predicting 30-day hospital readmissions.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective survey of internal medicine clinicians in an urban safety-net hospital. Clinicians prospectively predicted patients' 30-day readmission risk on 5-point Likert scales, subsequently dichotomized into low- vs. high-risk. We compared human with machine predictions using discrimination, net reclassification, and diagnostic test characteristics. Observed readmissions were ascertained from a regional hospitalization database. We also developed and assessed a "human-plus-machine" logistic regression model incorporating both human and machine predictions.

RESULTS

We included 1183 hospitalizations from 106 clinicians, with a readmission rate of 20.8%. Both clinicians and the EHR model had similar discrimination (C-statistic 0.66 vs. 0.66, p = 0.91). Clinicians had higher specificity (79.0% vs. 48.9%, p < 0.001) but lower sensitivity (43.9 vs. 75.2%, p < 0.001) than EHR model predictions. Compared with machine, human was better at reclassifying non-readmissions (non-event NRI + 30.1%) but worse at reclassifying readmissions (event NRI - 31.3%). A human-plus-machine approach best optimized discrimination (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.74), sensitivity (65.5%), and specificity (66.7%).

CONCLUSION

Clinicians had similar discrimination but higher specificity and lower sensitivity than EHR model predictions. Human-plus-machine was better than either alone. Readmission risk prediction strategies should incorporate clinician assessments to optimize the accuracy of readmission predictions.

Data Science Methods for Nursing-Relevant Patient Outcomes and Clinical Processes: The 2019 Literature Year in Review

Data science continues to be recognized and used within healthcare due to the increased availability of large data sets and advanced analytics. It can be challenging for nurse leaders to remain apprised of this rapidly changing landscape. In this article, we describe our findings from a scoping literature review of papers published in 2019 that use data science to explore, explain, and/or predict 15 phenomena of interest to nurses. Fourteen of the 15 phenomena were associated with at least one paper published in 2019. We identified the use of many contemporary data science methods (eg, natural language processing, neural networks) for many of the outcomes. We found many studies exploring Readmissions and Pressure Injuries. The topics of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Acceptance, Burnout, Patient Safety, and Unit Culture were poorly represented. We hope that the studies described in this article help readers: (1) understand the breadth and depth of data science's ability to improve clinical processes and patient outcomes that are relevant to nurses and (2) identify gaps in the literature that are in need of exploration.

Utilizing the care coordination Atlas as a framework: An integrative review of transitional care models

Introduction

Care coordination reduces care fragmentation and costs while improving health care quality. Transitional care programs, guided by tested models are an important component of effective care coordination, and have been found to reduce adverse events and prevent hospital readmissions. Using the Care Coordination Atlas as a framework, this article reports an integrative review of two transitional care models including analysis of model components, implementation factors, and associated 30-day all-cause hospital readmission rates.

Methods

Integrative review methodology. PubMed and Scopus databases were searched from January 2015 to July 2020. Fourteen studies set in 18 skilled nursing facilities and 50 hospitals were selected for data extraction and analysis.

Results

The ReEngineered Discharge model had five components and the Better Outcomes by Optimizing Safe Transitions model had eight components in the nine Care Coordination Atlas domains. Communication dominated activities in both models while neither addressed accountability/responsibility. Implementation was influenced by leadership commitment to understanding complexity of the models, culture change, integration of models into workflows, and associated labor costs. Model implementation studies consistently reported improvements in facilities’ 30-day all-cause hospital readmission rates.

Discussion

The Care Coordination Atlas was a useful framework to guide analysis of transitional care models. Leadership commitment to and participation in model implementation is vital. The models do not focus beyond the immediate post-discharge period limiting the impact on chronic disease management. Frameworks such as the Care Coordination Atlas are useful to help guide development of care coordination activities and associations with readmission rates.

Risk Factors of Readmissions in Geriatric Rehabilitation Patients: RESORT

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk factors associated with 30- and 90-day hospital readmissions in geriatric rehabilitation inpatients.

DESIGN

Observational, prospective longitudinal inception cohort.

SETTING

Tertiary hospital in Victoria, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Geriatric rehabilitation inpatients of the REStORing Health of Acutely Unwell AdulTs (RESORT) cohort evalutated by a comprehensive geriatric assessment including potential readmission risk factors (ie, demographic, social support, lifestyle, functional performance, quality of life, morbidity, length of stay in an acute ward). Of 693 inpatients, 11 died during geriatric rehabilitation. The mean age of the remaining 682 inpatients was 82.2±7.8 years, and 56.7% were women.

INTERVENTIONS

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Thirty- and 90-day readmissions after discharge from geriatric inpatient rehabilitation.

RESULTS

The 30- and 90-day unplanned all-cause readmission rates were 11.6% and 25.2%, respectively. Risk factors for 30- and 90-day readmissions were as follows: did not receive tertiary education, lower quality of life, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS) scores, and a higher number of medications used in the univariable models. Formal care was associated with increased risk for 90-day readmissions. In multivariable models, CIRS score was a significant risk factor for 30-day readmissions, whereas high fear of falling and CIRS score were significant risk factors for 90-day readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

High fear of falling and CIRS score were independent risk factors for readmission in geriatric rehabilitation inpatients. These variables should be included in hospital readmission risk prediction model developments for geriatric rehabilitation inpatients.