Prediction of the outcome of definitive chemoradiation by decrease in F-18 FDG uptake in nonsurgical esophageal squamous cell cancer

Prognostic and predictive values of interim 18F-FDG PET during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

To determine the prognostic and predictive value of early metabolic response assessed by a change in standardized uptake value (SUV) on interim 18F-FDG PET in patients with esophageal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase were searched up until 10 September, 2020, for studies evaluating a change in SUV on interim 18F-FDG PET for predicting a pathologic response, progression-free survival (PFS), or overall survival (OS) in patients with esophageal cancer. The sensitivity and specificity for predicting a pathologic response were pooled using bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) models. Meta-analytic pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were derived using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

A total of 11 studies (695 patients) were included in the meta-analysis. For nine studies assessing predictive accuracy, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of an early metabolic response for predicting a pathologic response were 0.80 (95% CI 0.61-0.91) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.45-0.63), respectively. The area under the HSROC curve was 0.64 (95% CI 0.60-0.68). Across the nine studies assessing prognostic value, an early metabolic response determined by interim PET showed pooled HRs for predicting PFS and OS of 0.44 (95% CI, 0.30-0.63) and 0.42 (95% CI, 0.31-0.56), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Change in SUV on interim 18F-FDG PET had significant prognostic value and moderate predictive value for a pathologic response in esophageal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Interim 18F-FDG PET may help prognostic stratification and guide treatment planning in oncologic practice.

Interim 18F-FDG-PET/CT during chemo-radiotherapy in the management of oesophageal cancer patients. A systematic review

Oesophageal cancer is an aggressive disease. The possibility to early stratify patients as responsive and non-responsive with a non-invasive method is extremely appealing. The uptake of Fluorodeoxyglucose (¹⁸F-FDG) in tumours, provided by positron emission tomography (PET) images, has been proved to be useful to assess the initial staging of the disease, recurrence, and response to chemotherapy and chemo-radiotherapy (CRT). In the last years, efforts have been focused on the possibility to use ad interim ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT (PET_int) to evaluate response during radiation therapy. However, controversial findings have been reported, although some relevant results would support its use for individual therapeutic decision. The present review assembles the comprehensive literature of the last decade to evaluate whether and in which cases PET_int may offer predictive potential in oesophageal cancer. All the analysed studies (13 studies, 697 patients) denoted PET_int as a challenging examination for early assessment of outcomes during CRT. In particular, 8 studies advocated the predictivity of PET_int, whilst 5 did not find any correlation between the interim variation of PET parameters and the pathological complete response and/or the clinical outcome. The reasons that possibly have caused contradictions among the studies demand further research with prospective and uniform protocols and methods of analysis to assess the predictive and prognostic value of PET_int in oesophageal cancer.

A systematic review of the predictive value of (18)FDG-PET in esophageal and esophagogastric junction cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiation on the survival outcome stratification

PURPOSE

We studied the predictive value of [(18) F]fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography ((18)FDG-PET) for assessing disease-free (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in esophageal and esophagogastric junction cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A literature search (PUBMED/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane) was performed to identify full papers with (18)FDG-PET and survival data, using indexing terms and free text words. Studies with >10 patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer, presenting sequential or at least one post-adjuvant treatment (18)FDG-PET data and Kaplan-Meier survival curves with >6 months median follow-up period were included. We performed a meta-analysis for DFS and OS using the hazard ratio (HRs) as outcome measure. Sources of heterogeneity study were also explored.

RESULTS

We identified 26 eligible studies including a total of 1,544 patients (average age 62 years, 82% males). The TNM distribution was as follows: stage I 7%, II 24%, III 53% and IV 15%. The pooled HRs for complete metabolic response versus no response were 0.51 for OS (95% CI, 0.4-0.64; P < 0.00001) and 0.47 for DFS (95% CI, 0.38-0.57; P < 0.00001), respectively. No statistical heterogeneity was present. To explore sources of clinical heterogeneity, we also realised subgroup and regression analyses. Taken into account the moderate correlation between OS and DFS (ρ = 0.54), we used joint bivariate random regression model. These analyses did not show a statistically significant impact of study characteristics and PET modalities on the pooled outcome estimates.

CONCLUSION

Despite methodological and clinical heterogeneity, metabolic response on (18)FDG-PET is a significant predictor of long-term survival data.