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Song AL, Li YJ, Liang H, Sun YZ, Shu X, Huang JH, Yang ZY, He WQ, Zhao L, Zhu T, Zhong KH, Chen YW, Lu KZ, Yi B. Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Perioperative Neurocognitive Disorders in Adults. Anesth Analg 2023; 137:1257-1269. [PMID: 37973132 PMCID: PMC10629609 DOI: 10.1213/ane.0000000000006746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/29/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Simple and rapid tools for screening high-risk patients for perioperative neurocognitive disorders (PNDs) are urgently needed to improve patient outcomes. We developed an online tool with machine-learning algorithms using routine variables based on multicenter data. METHODS The entire dataset was composed of 49,768 surgical patients from 3 representative academic hospitals in China. Surgical patients older than 45 years, those undergoing general anesthesia, and those without a history of PND were enrolled. When the patient's discharge diagnosis was PND, the patient was in the PND group. Patients in the non-PND group were randomly extracted from the big data platform according to the surgical type, age, and source of data in the PND group with a ratio of 3:1. After data preprocessing and feature selection, general linear model (GLM), artificial neural network (ANN), and naive Bayes (NB) were used for model development and evaluation. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC), the area under the precision-recall curve (PRAUC), the Brier score, the index of prediction accuracy (IPA), sensitivity, specificity, etc. The model was also externally validated on the multiparameter intelligent monitoring in intensive care (MIMIC) Ⅳ database. Afterward, we developed an online visualization tool to preoperatively predict patients' risk of developing PND based on the models with the best performance. RESULTS A total of 1051 patients (242 PND and 809 non-PND) and 2884 patients (6.2% patients with PND) were analyzed on multicenter data (model development, test [internal validation], external validation-1) and MIMIC Ⅳ dataset (external validation-2). The model performance based on GLM was much better than that based on ANN and NB. The best-performing GLM model on validation-1 dataset achieved ROCAUC (0.874; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.833-0.915), PRAUC (0.685; 95% CI, 0.584-0.786), sensitivity (72.6%; 95% CI, 61.4%-81.5%), specificity (84.4%; 95% CI, 79.3%-88.4%), Brier score (0.131), and IPA (44.7%), and of which the ROCAUC (0.761, 95% CI, 0.712-0.809), the PRAUC (0.475, 95% CI, 0.370-0.581), Brier score (0.053), and IPA (76.8%) on validation-2 dataset. Afterward, we developed an online tool (https://pnd-predictive-model-dynnom.shinyapps.io/ DynNomapp/) with 10 routine variables for preoperatively screening high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS We developed a simple and rapid online tool to preoperatively screen patients' risk of PND using GLM based on multicenter data, which may help medical staff's decision-making regarding perioperative management strategies to improve patient outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ai-lin Song
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yu-jie Li
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Hao Liang
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yi-zhu Sun
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Xin Shu
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Jia-hao Huang
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Zhi-yong Yang
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Wen-quan He
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Lei Zhao
- Department of Anesthesiology, Xuan Wu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Tao Zhu
- Department of Anesthesiology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Kun-hua Zhong
- Electronic Information Technology Research Institute, Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Science, Chongqing, China
| | - Yu-wen Chen
- Electronic Information Technology Research Institute, Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Science, Chongqing, China
| | - Kai-zhi Lu
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Bin Yi
- From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
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Marubashi S, Takahashi A, Kakeji Y, Hasegawa H, Ueno H, Eguchi S, Endo I, Goi T, Saiura A, Sasaki A, Takiguchi S, Takeuchi H, Tanaka C, Hashimoto M, Hiki N, Horiguchi A, Masaki T, Yoshida K, Gotoh M, Konno H, Yamamoto H, Miyata H, Seto Y, Kitagawa Y. Surgical outcomes in gastroenterological surgery in Japan: Report of the National Clinical Database 2011-2019. Ann Gastroenterol Surg 2021; 5:639-658. [PMID: 34585049 PMCID: PMC8452469 DOI: 10.1002/ags3.12462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2021] [Revised: 03/22/2021] [Accepted: 03/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to present the 2019 annual report of the gastroenterological section of the National Clinical Database (NCD). METHODS We reviewed 609,589 cases recorded in 2019 and 5,029,764 cases registered from 2011 to 2019 for the 115 selected gastroenterological surgical procedures. RESULTS The main features of gastroenterological surgery in Japan were similar to those described in the 2018 annual report, namely, that 1) operative numbers gradually increased in all procedures, except gastrectomy and hepatectomy, which decreased in these years; 2) in all eight major gastroenterological surgeries, the age distribution tended toward older patients; 3) the morbidity of esophagectomy, hepatectomy, and pancreaticoduodenectomy increased, but mortality was minimized in all procedures; 4) all eight major gastroenterological procedures have increasingly been performed under laparoscopy; and 5) board-certified surgeons were increasingly involved. These trends in recent years were more prominent in 2019. CONCLUSIONS Thanks to the continuous cooperation and dedication of the surgeons, medical staff, and surgical clinical reviewers who registered the clinical data into the NCD, it is possible to understand the comprehensive landscape of surgery in Japan and to disclose new evidence in this field. The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery will continue to promote the value of this database and encourage the use of feedback and clinical studies using the NCD, now and in the future. Generating further approaches to surgical quality improvement are important directions for future research.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Arata Takahashi
- Department of Health Policy and ManagementSchool of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyoJapan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | | | | | - Hideki Ueno
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Susumu Eguchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Itaru Endo
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Takanori Goi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Akio Saiura
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Akira Sasaki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Shuji Takiguchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroya Takeuchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Chie Tanaka
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | - Naoki Hiki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | - Tadahiko Masaki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | - Mitsukazu Gotoh
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroyuki Konno
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroyuki Yamamoto
- Department of Health Policy and ManagementSchool of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyoJapan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroaki Miyata
- Department of Health Policy and ManagementSchool of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyoJapan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Yasuyuki Seto
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Yuko Kitagawa
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
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