Comment on: "Detection, Treatment, and Survival of Pancreatic Cancer Recurrence in the Netherlands: A Nationwide Analysis"

Three-month life expectancy as inclusion criterion for clinical trials in advanced pancreatic cancer: is it really a valid tool for patient selection?

PURPOSE

To analyze the 3-month life expectancy rate in pancreatic cancer (PC) patients treated within prospective trials from the German AIO study group.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A pooled analysis was conducted for patients with advanced PC that were treated within five phase II/III studies conducted between 1997 and 2017 (Gem/Cis, Ro96, RC57, ACCEPT, RASH). The primary goal for the current report was to identify the actual 3-month survival rate, a standard inclusion criterion in oncology trials.

RESULTS

Overall, 912 patients were included, 83% had metastatic and 17% locally advanced PC; the estimated median overall survival (OS) was 7.1 months. Twenty-one percent of the participants survived < 3 months, with a range from 26% in RC57 to 15% in RASH. Significant predictors for not reaching 3-month OS were > 1 previous treatment line (p < 0.001) and performance status (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the definition of a life expectancy of > 3 months as a standard inclusion criterion in clinical trials for advanced PC, a significant proportion of study patients does not survive > 3 months.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

NCT00440167 (AIO-PK0104), NCT01729481 (RASH), NCT01728818 (ACCEPT).

Dynamics of Serum CA19-9 in Patients Undergoing Pancreatic Cancer Resection

BACKGROUND

Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 is an established perioperative prognostic biomarker for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, it is unclear how CA19-9 monitoring should be used during postoperative surveillance to detect recurrence and to guide the initiation of recurrence-focused therapy.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to elucidate the value of CA19-9 as a diagnostic biomarker for disease recurrence in patients who underwent PDAC resection.

METHODS

Serum CA19-9 levels at diagnosis, after surgery, and during postoperative follow-up were analyzed in patients who underwent PDAC resection. All patients with at least two postoperative follow-up CA19-9 measurements before recurrence were included. Patients deemed to be nonsecretors of CA19-9 were excluded. The relative increase in postoperative CA19-9 was calculated for each patient by dividing the maximum postoperative CA19-9 value by the first postoperative value. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to identify the optimal threshold for the relative increase in CA19-9 levels to identify recurrence in the training set using Youden's index. The performance of this cutoff was validated in a test set by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) and was compared to the performance of the optimal cutoff for postoperative CA19-9 measurements as a continuous value. In addition, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were assessed.

RESULTS

In total, 271 patients were included, of whom 208 (77%) developed recurrence. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that a relative increase in postoperative serum CA19-9 of 2.6× was predictive of recurrence, with 58% sensitivity, 83% specificity, 95% positive predictive value, and 28% negative predictive value. The AUC for a 2.6× relative increase in the CA19-9 level was 0.719 in the training set and 0.663 in the test set. The AUC of postoperative CA19-9 as a continuous value (optimal threshold, 52) was 0.671 in the training set. In the training set, the detection of a 2.6-fold increase in CA19-9 preceded the detection of recurrence by a mean difference of 7 months ( P <0.001) and in the test set by 10 months ( P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A relative increase in the postoperative serum CA19-9 level of 2.6-fold is a stronger predictive marker for recurrence than a continuous CA19-9 cutoff. A relative CA19-9 increase can precede the detection of recurrence on imaging for up to 7 to 10 months. Therefore, CA19-9 dynamics can be used as a biomarker to guide the initiation of recurrence-focused treatment.