Operative and Nonoperative Outcomes of Emergency General Surgery Conditions: An Observational Study Using a Novel Instrumental Variable

Perioperative risk assessment for emergency general surgery in those with multimorbidity or frailty

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review explores advances in risk stratification tools and their applicability in identifying and managing high-risk emergency general surgery (EGS) patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

Traditional risk assessment tools have several limitations when applied to complex EGS patients as comorbidities are generally treated in a binary, linear and sequential fashion. Additionally, some tools are only usable in the postoperative period, and some require multidisciplinary involvement and are not suitable in an emergency setting. Frailty in particular - for which there are multiple calculators-maladaptively influences outcomes. Artificial intelligence tools, such as the machine-learning-based POTTER calculator, demonstrate superior performance by addressing nonlinear interactions among patient factors, offering a dynamic and more accurate approach to risk prediction.

SUMMARY

Integrating advanced, data-driven risk assessment tools into clinical practice can help identify and manage high-risk patients as well as forecast outcomes for EGS patients. Such tools are intended to trigger preoperative interventions as well as discussions that ensure goal-concordant care, align expectations with anticipated outcomes and support both facility and patient-relevant outcomes.

Postdischarge Mental Health Care and Emergency General Surgery Readmission for Patients With Serious Mental Illness

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between postdischarge mental health care and odds of readmission after emergency general surgery (EGS) hospitalization for patients with serious mental illness (SMI).

BACKGROUND

A mental health visit (MHV) after medical hospitalization is associated with decreased readmissions for patients with SMI. The impact of a MHV after surgical hospitalization is unknown.

METHODS

Using Medicare claims, we performed a retrospective cohort study of hospitalized EGS patients with SMI aged above 65.5 (2016-2018). EGS included colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreatobiliary, hernia, intestinal obstruction, resuscitation, and upper gastrointestinal conditions. SMI was defined as schizophrenia spectrum, mood, or anxiety disorders. The exposure was MHV within 30 days of discharge. The primary outcome was 30-day readmission. Secondary outcomes included emergency department presentation and psychiatric admission. Inverse probability weighting was used to evaluated outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 88,092 analyzed patients, 11,755 (13.3%) had a MHV within 30 days of discharge. 23,696 (26.9%) of patients were managed operatively, 64,395 (73.1%) nonoperatively. After adjustment for potential confounders, patients with a postdischarge MHV had lower odds of acute care readmission than patients without a MHV in both operative (OR=0.60; 95% CI: 0.40-0.90) and nonoperative (OR=0.67; 95% CI: 0.53-0.84) cohorts. There was no association between postdischarge MHV and ED presentation or psychiatric admission in the operative or nonoperative groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Postdischarge MHV after EGS hospitalization was associated with decreased odds of readmission for patients with SMI managed operatively and nonoperatively. In older EGS patients with SMI, coordination of MHVs may be a mechanism to reduce readmission disparities.

Trends in visits, imaging, and diagnosis for emergency department abdominal pain presentations in the United States, 2007-2019

OBJECTIVES

Abdominal pain is the most common reason for visit (RFV) to the emergency department (ED) for adults, yet no standardized diagnostic pathway exists for abdominal pain. Optimal management is age-specific; symptoms, diagnoses, and prognoses differ between young and old adults. Availability and knowledge of the effectiveness of various imaging modalities have also changed over time. We compared diagnostic imaging rates for younger versus older adults to identify practice patterns of abdominal imaging across age groups over time.

METHODS

We analyzed weighted, nationally representative data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey 2007-2019 for adult ED visits with a primary RFV of abdominal pain. We included 23,364 sampled visits, representing 123 million visits.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2019, total visits increased for ages 18-45 (p < 0.001), 46-64 (p < 0.001), and 65+ (p = 0.032). The percentage of visits with primary RFV of abdominal pain increased from 9.4% to 11.6% for ages 18-45, 7.8%-9.0% for ages 46-64, and 6.0%-6.5% for 65+. Computed tomography (CT) scan rates increased over time from 26.2% of all patients receiving a CT scan to 42.6%. Relative percentage change in abdominal CT scans was greatest for older adults, with a 30.3% increase, compared to 24.0% for middle-aged adults and 15.0% for young adults. Test positivity, defined as receiving an emergency general surgical diagnosis after CT or ultrasound, increased from 17.2% in 2007 to 22.9% in 2019 (p < 0.01). Of the older adults with abdominal pain in 2019, 13% received an X-ray only, which is neither sensitive nor specific for acute pathology in older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite more abdominal pain ED visits and increased imaging rates per visit, test positivity continues to rise. Our findings do not support claims that CT and ultrasound are being used less appropriately over time, but demonstrate widespread use of X-rays, which are potentially ineffective for abdominal pain.

Variation in Hospital Performance for General Surgery in Younger and Older Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To compare hospital surgical performance in older and younger patients.

BACKGROUND

In-hospital mortality after surgical procedures varies widely among hospitals. Prior studies suggest that failure-to-rescue rates drive this variation for older adults, but the generalizability of these findings to younger patients remains unknown.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥18 years undergoing one of 10 common and complex general surgery operations in 16 states using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Projects State Inpatient Databases (2016-2018). Patients were split into 2 populations: patients with Medicare ≥65 (older adult) and non-Medicare <65 (younger adult). Hospitals were sorted into quintiles using risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates for each age population. Correlations between hospitals in each mortality quintile across age populations were calculated. Complication and failure-to-rescue rates were compared across the highest and lowest mortality quintiles in each age population.

RESULTS

We identified 579,582 patients treated in 732 hospitals. The mortality rate was 3.6% among older adults and 0.7% among younger adults. Among older adults, high- relative to low-mortality hospitals had similar complication rates (32.0% vs 29.8%; P = 0.059) and significantly higher failure-to-rescue rates (16.0% vs 4.0%; P < 0.001). Among younger adults, high-relative to low-mortality hospitals had higher complications (15.4% vs 12.1%; P < 0.001) and failure-to-rescue rates (8.3% vs 0.7%; P < 0.001). The correlation between observed-to-expected mortality ratios in each age group was 0.385 ( P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

High surgical mortality rates in younger patients may be driven by both complication and failure-to-rescue rates. There is little overlap between low-mortality hospitals in the older and younger adult populations. Future work must delve into the root causes of this age-based difference in hospital-level surgical outcomes.

Mortality burden from variation in provision of surgical care in emergency general surgery: a cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample

Background

The decision to undertake a surgical intervention for an emergency general surgery (EGS) condition (appendicitis, diverticulitis, cholecystitis, hernia, peptic ulcer, bowel obstruction, ischemic bowel) involves a complex consideration of factors, particularly in older adults. We hypothesized that identifying variability in the application of operative management could highlight a potential pathway to improve patient survival and outcomes.

Methods

We included adults aged 65+ years with an EGS condition from the 2016-2017 National Inpatient Sample. Operative management was determined from procedure codes. Each patient was assigned a propensity score (PS) for the likelihood of undergoing an operation, modeled from patient and hospital factors: EGS diagnosis, age, gender, race, presence of shock, comorbidities, and hospital EGS volumes. Low and high probability for surgery was defined using a PS cut-off of 0.5. We identified two model-concordant groups (no surgery-low probability, surgery-high probability) and two model-discordant groups (no surgery-high probability, surgery-low probability). Logistic regression estimated the adjusted OR (AOR) of in-hospital mortality for each group.

Results

Of 375 546 admissions, 21.2% underwent surgery. Model-discordant care occurred in 14.6%; 5.9% had no surgery despite a high PS and 8.7% received surgery with low PS. In the adjusted regression, model-discordant care was associated with significantly increased mortality: no surgery-high probability AOR 2.06 (1.86 to 2.27), surgery-low probability AOR 1.57 (1.49 to 1.65). Model-concordant care showed a protective effect against mortality (AOR 0.83, 0.74 to 0.92).

Conclusions

Nearly one in seven EGS patients received model-discordant care, which was associated with higher mortality. Our study suggests that streamlined treatment protocols can be applied in EGS patients as a means to save lives.

Level of evidence

III.

Patient reported outcomes of emergency general surgery procedures

BACKGROUND

Emergency general surgery (EGS) involves care of a patient's often previously unknown disease in the setting of an unplanned interaction with the healthcare system. This leads to challenges collecting and interpreting patient reported outcome measures (PROMs).

METHODS

We performed a qualitative and mixed methods study using semi-structured interviews during the index hospitalization and at 6-12 months to capture peri-operative patient experiences. We compared interview findings to clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 30 patients, two-thirds reported feeling no choice but to pursue emergency surgery with many reporting exclusion from decision-making. Females reported these themes more commonly. Patients with minor complications less frequently reported trust in their team and discussed communication issues and delays in care (all p ​< ​0.05). Patients with major complications more frequently reported confidence in their team and gratefulness, but also communication limitations (all p ​< ​0.05). Patients not admitted to the ICU more frequently discussed good communication and expeditious treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

PROMs developed for EGS patients should consider patient outcomes and reflections that they felt excluded from decision-making. Severity of complications may also differentially impact PROMs.

Costs of Care for Operative and Nonoperative Management of Emergency General Surgery Conditions

OBJECTIVE

Many emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions can be managed operatively or nonoperatively, with outcomes that vary by diagnosis. We hypothesized that operative management would lead to higher in-hospital costs but to cost savings over time.

BACKGROUND

EGS conditions account for $28 billion in health care costs in the United States annually. Compared with scheduled surgery, patients who undergo emergency surgery are at increased risk of complications, readmissions, and death, with accompanying costs of care that are up to 50% higher than elective surgery. Our prior work demonstrated that operative management had variable impacts on clinical outcomes depending on the EGS condition.

METHODS

This was a nationwide, retrospective study using fee-for-service Medicare claims data. We included patients 65.5 years of age or older with a principal diagnosis for an EGS condition 7/1/2015-6/30/2018. EGS conditions were categorized as: colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreaticobiliary (HPB), intestinal obstruction, and upper gastrointestinal. We used near-far matching with a preference-based instrumental variable to adjust for confounding and selection bias. Outcomes included Medicare payments for the index hospitalization and at 30, 90, and 180 days.

RESULTS

Of 507,677 patients, 30.6% received an operation. For HPB conditions, costs for operative management were initially higher but became equivalent at 90 and 180 days. For all others, operative management was associated with higher inpatient costs, which persisted, though narrowed, over time. Out-of-pocket costs were nearly equivalent for operative and nonoperative management.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with nonoperative management, costs were higher or equivalent for operative management of EGS conditions through 180 days, which could impact decision-making for clinicians, patients, and health systems in situations where clinical outcomes are similar.

Management of obstructed colorectal carcinoma in an emergency setting: An update

Colorectal carcinoma is common, particularly on the left side. In 20% of patients, obstruction and ileus may be the first clinical manifestations of a carcinoma that has advanced (stage II, III or even IV). Diagnosis is based on clinical presentation, plain abdominal radiogram, computed tomography (CT), CT colonography and positron emission tomography/CT. The best management strategy in terms of short-term operative or interventional and long-term oncological outcomes remains unknown. For the most common left-sided obstruction, the first choice should be either emergency surgery or endoscopic decompression by self-expendable metal stents or tubes. The operative plan should be either one-stage or two-stage resection. One-stage resection with on-table bowel decompression and irrigation can be accompanied or not accompanied by proximal defunctioning stoma (colostomy or ileostomy). Primary anastomosis is more convenient but has increased risks of anastomotic leakage and morbidity. Two-stage resection (Hartmann's procedure) is safer and the most widely used despite temporally affecting quality of life. Damage control surgery in high-risk frail patients is less frequently performed since it can be successfully substituted with endoscopic stenting or tubing. For the less common right-sided obstruction, one-stage surgical resection is more beneficial than endoscopic decompression. The role of minimally invasive surgery (laparoscopic or robotic) is a subject of debate. Emergency laparoscopic-assisted management is advantageous to some extent but requires much expertise due to inherent difficulties in dissecting the distended colon and the risk of rupture and subsequent septic complications. The decompressing stent as a bridge to elective surgery more substantially decreases the risks of morbidity and mortality than emergency surgery for decompression and has equivalent medium-term overall survival and disease-free survival rates. Its combination with neoadjuvant chemotherapy or radiation may have a positive effect on long-term oncological outcomes. Management plans are crucial and must be individualized to better fit each case.

An acute care surgeon's dilemma: Operative vs. non-operative management of emergency general surgery conditions in patients with recent colorectal cancer treatment

BACKGROUND

This comparative effectiveness study examined outcomes of operative vs. non-operative management for emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions in patients with recent cancer treatment (RT).

METHODS

Medicare beneficiaries with a history of colorectal cancer hospitalized for an EGS condition (2016-2018) were identified. RT was defined as chemotherapy/radiation within 3 months prior to admission. Instrumental variable analysis assessed the impact of management on mortality and readmissions among survivors (30d, 60d, and 90d), for patients in whom there was clinical equipoise regarding optimal management strategy.

RESULTS

Of 26,097 patients, 13% had undergone RT. In both the RT and non-RT groups, the optimal management strategy was uncertain in 14%. Operative management conferred increased risk of mortality but not readmission in patients with RT compared to those without (90d mortality:+43%, p ​= ​0.03; 90d readmission:+7.1%, p ​= ​0.776).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with RT for whom there is clinical equipoise regarding EGS management, operative intervention increases risk of mortality.

Primary Care Physician Follow-Up and 30-Day Readmission After Emergency General Surgery Admissions

Importance

The benefit of primary care physician (PCP) follow-up as a potential means to reduce readmissions in hospitalized patients has been found in other medical conditions and among patients receiving high-risk surgery. However, little is known about the implications of PCP follow-up for patients with an emergency general surgery (EGS) condition.

Objective

To evaluate the association between PCP follow-up and 30-day readmission rates after hospital discharge for an EGS condition.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Master Beneficiary Summary File, Inpatient, Carrier (Part B), and Durable Medical Equipment files for beneficiaries aged 66 years or older who were hospitalized with an EGS condition that was managed operatively or nonoperatively between September 1, 2016, and November 30, 2018. Eligible patients were enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service, admitted through the emergency department with a primary diagnosis of an EGS condition, and received a general surgery consultation during the admission. Data were analyzed between July 11, 2022, and June 5, 2023.

Exposure

Follow-up with a PCP within 30 days after hospital discharge for the index admission.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days after discharge for the index admission. An inverse probability weighted regression model was used to estimate the risk-adjusted association of PCP follow-up with 30-day readmission. The secondary outcome was readmission within 30 days after discharge stratified by treatment type (operative vs nonoperative treatment) during their index admission.

Results

The study included 345 360 Medicare beneficiaries (mean [SD] age, 74.4 [12.0] years; 187 804 females [54.4%]) hospitalized with an EGS condition. Of these, 156 820 patients (45.4%) had a follow-up PCP visit, 108 544 (31.4%) received operative treatment during their index admission, and 236 816 (68.6%) received nonoperative treatment. Overall, 58 253 of 332 874 patients (17.5%) were readmitted within 30 days after discharge for the index admission. After risk adjustment and propensity weighting, patients who had PCP follow-up had 67% lower odds of readmission (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.36) compared with patients without PCP follow-up. After stratifying by treatment type, patients who were treated operatively during their index admission and had subsequent PCP follow-up within 30 days after discharge had 79% reduced odds of readmission (AOR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.18-0.25); a similar association was seen among patients who were treated nonoperatively (AOR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.34-0.39). Infectious conditions, heart failure, acute kidney failure, and chronic kidney disease were among the most frequent diagnoses prompting readmission overall and among operative and nonoperative treatment groups.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, follow-up with a PCP within 30 days after discharge for an EGS condition was associated with a significant reduction in the adjusted odds of 30-day readmission. This association was similar for patients who received operative care or nonoperative care during their index admission. In patients aged 66 years or older with an EGS condition, primary care coordination after discharge may be an important tool to reduce readmissions.

Emergency Surgery, Multimorbidity and Hospital-Free Days: A Retrospective Observational Study

INTRODUCTION

Analyzing hospital-free days (HFDs) offers a patient-centered approach to health services research. We hypothesized that, within emergency general surgery (EGS), multimorbidity would be associated with fewer HFDs, whether patients were managed operatively or nonoperatively.

METHODS

EGS patients were identified using national Medicare claims data (2015-2018). Patients were classified as multimorbid based on the presence of a Qualifying Comorbidity Set and stratified by treatment: operative (received surgery within 48 h of index admission) and nonoperative. HFDs were calculated through 180 d, beginning on the day of index admission, as days alive and spent outside of a hospital, an Emergency Department, or a long-term acute care facility. Univariate comparisons were performed using Kruskal-Wallis tests and risk-adjusted HFDs were compared between multimorbid and nonmultimorbid patients using multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models.

RESULTS

Among 174,891 operative patients, 45.5% were multimorbid. Among 398,756 nonoperative patients, 59.2% were multimorbid. Multimorbid patients had fewer median HFDs than nonmultimorbid patients among operative and nonoperative cohorts (P < 0.001). At 6 mo, among operative patients, multimorbid patients had 6.5 fewer HFDs (P < 0.001), and among nonoperative patients, multimorbid patients had 7.9 fewer HFDs (P < 0.001). When length of stay was included as a covariate, nonoperative multimorbid patients still had 7.9 fewer HFDs than nonoperative, nonmultimorbid patients (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

HFDs offer a patient-centered, composite outcome for claims-based analyses. For EGS patients, multimorbidity was associated with less time alive and out of the hospital, especially when patients were managed nonoperatively.

The Conditional Effects of Multimorbidity on Operative Versus Nonoperative Management of Emergency General Surgery Conditions: A Retrospective Observational Study Using an Instrumental Variable Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To understand how multimorbidity impacts operative versus nonoperative management of emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions.

BACKGROUND

EGS is a heterogenous field, encompassing operative and nonoperative treatment options. Decision-making is particularly complex for older patients with multimorbidity.

METHODS

Using an instrumental variable approach with near-far matching, this national, retrospective observational cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries examines the conditional effects of multimorbidity, defined using qualifying comorbidity sets, on operative versus nonoperative management of EGS conditions.

RESULTS

Of 507,667 patients with EGS conditions, 155,493 (30.6%) received an operation. Overall, 278,836 (54.9%) were multimorbid. After adjustment, multimorbidity significantly increased the risk of in-hospital mortality associated with operative management for general abdominal patients (+9.8%; P = 0.002) and upper gastrointestinal patients (+19.9%, P < 0.001) and the risk of 30-day mortality (+27.7%, P < 0.001) and nonroutine discharge (+21.8%, P = 0.007) associated with operative management for upper gastrointestinal patients. Regardless of multimorbidity status, operative management was associated with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality among colorectal patients (multimorbid: + 12%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +4%, P = 0.003), higher risk of nonroutine discharge among colorectal (multimorbid: +42.3%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +55.1%, P < 0.001) and intestinal obstruction patients (multimorbid: +14.6%, P = 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +14.8%, P = 0.001), and lower risk of nonroutine discharge (multimorbid: -11.5%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: -11.9%, P < 0.001) and 30-day readmissions (multimorbid: -8.2%, P = 0.002; nonmultimorbid: -9.7%, P < 0.001) among hepatobiliary patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of multimorbidity on operative versus nonoperative management varied by EGS condition category. Physicians and patients should have honest conversations about the expected risks and benefits of treatment options, and future investigations should aim to understand the optimal management of multimorbid EGS patients.

Conditional Effects of Race on Operative and Nonoperative Outcomes of Emergency General Surgery Conditions

INTRODUCTION

Many emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions can be managed both operatively or nonoperatively; however, it is unknown whether the decision to operate affects Black and White patients differentially.

METHODS

We identified a nationwide cohort of Black and White Medicare beneficiaries, hospitalized for common EGS conditions from July 2015 to June 2018. Using near-far matching to adjust for measurable confounding and an instrumental variable analysis to control for selection bias associated with treatment assignment, we compare outcomes of operative and nonoperative management in a stratified population of Black and White patients. Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, nonroutine discharge, and 30-day readmissions. An interaction test based on a t test was used to determine the conditional effects of operative versus nonoperative management between Black and White patients.

RESULTS

A total of 556,087 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 59,519 (10.7%) were Black and 496,568 (89.3%) were White. Overall, 165,932 (29.8%) patients had an operation and 390,155 (70.2%) were managed nonoperatively. Significant outcome differences were seen between operative and nonoperative management for some conditions; however, no significant differences were seen for the conditional effect of race on outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision to manage an EGS patient operatively versus nonoperatively has varying effects on surgical outcomes. These effects vary by EGS condition. There were no significant conditional effects of race on the outcomes of operative versus nonoperative management among universally insured older adults hospitalized with EGS conditions.

What If We Do Not Operate? Outcomes of Nonoperatively Managed Emergency General Surgery Patients

INTRODUCTION

Although two-thirds of patients with emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions are managed nonoperatively, their long-term outcomes are not well described. We describe outcomes of nonoperative management in a cohort of older EGS patients and estimate the projected risk of operative management using the NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We studied single-center inpatients aged 65 y and more with an EGS consult who did not undergo an operation (January 2019-December 2020). For each patient, we recorded the surgeon's recommendation as either an operation was "Not Needed" (medical management preferred) or "Not Recommended" (risk outweighed benefits). Our main outcome of interest was mortality at 30 d and 1 y. Our secondary outcome of interest was SRC-projected 30-day postoperative mortality risk (median % [interquartile range]), calculated using hypothetical low-risk and high-risk operations.

RESULTS

We included 204 patients (60% female, median age 75 y), for whom an operation was "Not Needed" in 81% and "Not Recommended" in 19%. In this cohort, 11% died at 30 d and 23% died at 1 y. Mortality was higher for the "Not Recommended" cohort (37% versus 5% at 30 d and 53% versus 16% at 1 y, P < 0.05). The SRC-projected 30-day postoperative mortality risk was 3.7% (1.3-8.7) for low-risk and 5.8% (2-11.8) for high-risk operations.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonoperative management in older EGS patients is associated with very high risk of short-term and long-term mortality, particularly if a surgeon advised that risks of surgery outweighed benefits. The SRC may underestimate risk in the highest-risk patients.