Risk stratification simplified: the worst injury predicts mortality for the injured children

Administrative data in pediatric critical care research-Potential, challenges, and future directions

Heterogenous patient populations with small case numbers constitute a relevant barrier to research in pediatric critical care. Prospective studies bring along logistic barriers and-if interventional-ethical concerns. Therefore, retrospective observational investigations, mainly multicenter studies or analyses of registry data, prevail in the field of pediatric critical care research. Administrative health care data represent a possible alternative to overcome small case numbers and logistic barriers. However, their current use is limited by a lack of knowledge among clinicians about the availability and characteristics of these data sets, along with required expertise in the handling of large data sets. Specifically in the field of critical care research, difficulties to assess the severity of the acute disease and estimate organ dysfunction and outcomes pose additional challenges. In contrast, trauma research has shown that classification of injury severity from administrative data can be achieved and chronic disease scores have been developed for pediatric patients, nurturing confidence that the remaining obstacles can be overcome. Despite the undoubted challenges, interdisciplinary collaboration between clinicians and methodologic experts have resulted in impactful publications from across the world. Efforts to enable the estimation of organ dysfunction and measure outcomes after critical illness are the most urgent tasks to promote the use of administrative data in critical care. Clever analysis and linking of different administrative health care data sets carry the potential to advance observational research in pediatric critical care and ultimately improve clinical care for critically ill children.

Long-term impact of abusive head trauma in young children: Outcomes at 5 and 11 years old

BACKGROUND

Abusive head trauma (AHT) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among young children. We aimed to evaluate the long-term impact of AHT.

METHODS

Using administrative claims from 2000-2018, children <3 years old with documented AHT who had follow-up through ages 5 and 11 years were identified. The primary outcome was incidence of neurodevelopmental disability and the secondary outcome was the effect of age at time of AHT on long-term outcomes.

RESULTS

  1,165 children were identified with follow-up through age 5; 358 also had follow-up through age 11.  The incidence of neurodevelopmental disability was 68.0% (792/1165) at 5 years of age and 81.6% (292/358) at 11 years of age.  The incidence of disability significantly increased for the 358 children followed from 5 to 11 years old (+14.3 percentage points, p<0.0001).  Children <1 year old at the time of AHT were more likely to develop disabilities when compared to 2 year olds.

CONCLUSIONS

AHT is associated with significant long-term disability by age 5 and the incidence increased by age 11 years.  There is an association between age at time of AHT and long-term outcomes. Efforts to improve comprehensive follow-up as children continue to age is important.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

IV.

Increased mortality in very young children with traumatic brain injury due to abuse: A nationwide analysis of 10,965 patients

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the leading cause of death and disability in young children; however, the impact of mechanism on outcomes has not been fully evaluated. We hypothesized that children with TBI due to abuse would have a higher mortality than children with accidental TBI due to motor vehicle collisions (MVC).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review of the National Kids' Inpatient (KID) hospitalizations database of children <2 years old with TBI due to abuse or MVC (2000-2016). The primary outcome was mortality. Secondary outcomes were length of stay (LOS) and hospital charges. We investigated predictors of mortality with multivariable regression.

RESULTS

Of 10,965 children with TBI, 65.2% were due to abuse. Overall mortality was 9.8% (n = 1074). Abused children had longer LOS (5.7 vs 1.6 days, p < 0.0001) and higher hospital charges ($34,314 vs $19,360, p < 0.0001) than children with TBI due to MVC. The odds of mortality were 42% higher in children with abusive head trauma (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.10-1.83, p = 0.007) compared to MVCs after adjusting for age, race, sex, neurosurgical intervention, injury severity, and insurance.

CONCLUSION

Children with abusive traumatic brain injury have increased risk of mortality, longer LOS, and higher hospital charges compared to children with TBI due to motor vehicle collision after adjusting for relevant confounders. Resources must be directed at prevention and early identification of abuse.

Identification and internal validation of models for predicting survival and ICU admission following a traumatic injury

Background

Measures to improve the accuracy of determining survival and intensive care unit (ICU) admission using the International Classification of Injury Severity Score (ICISS) are not often conducted on a population-wide basis. The aim is to determine if the predictive ability of survival and ICU admission using ICISS can be improved depending on the method used to derive ICISS and incremental inclusion of covariates.

Method

A retrospective analysis of linked injury hospitalisation and mortality data during 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2014 in New South Wales, Australia was conducted. Both multiplicative-injury and single-worst-injury ICISS were calculated. Logistic regression examined 90-day mortality and ICU admission with a range of predictor variables. The models were assessed in terms of their ability to discriminate survivors and non-survivors, model fit, and variation explained.

Results

There were 735,961 index injury admissions, 13,744 (1.9%) deaths within 90-days and 23,054 (3.1%) ICU admissions. The best predictive model for 90-day mortality was single-worst-injury ICISS including age group, gender, all comorbidities, trauma centre type, injury mechanism, and nature of injury as covariates. The multiplicative-injury ICISS with age group, gender, all comorbidities, injury mechanism, and nature of injury was the best predictive model for ICU admission.

Conclusions

The inclusion of comorbid conditions, injury mechanism and nature of injury, improved discrimination for both 90-day mortality and ICU admission. Moves to routinely use ICD-based injury severity measures, such as ICISS, should be considered for hospitalisation data replacing more resource-intensive injury severity classification measures.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13049-018-0563-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A closer look at non-accidental trauma: Caregiver assault compared to non-caregiver assault

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to examine the outcomes of non-accidental trauma (NAT) patients compared to other trauma (OT) patients across the state of Florida. In addition, NAT and OT patients with a mechanism of injury of assault were further analyzed.

METHODS

A statewide database was reviewed from January 2010 to December 2014 for patients aged 0-18years who presented following trauma. Patients were sorted by admitting diagnosis into two groups: rule out NAT and all other diagnoses. Patients with a mechanism of assault were subanalyzed and outcomes were compared.

RESULTS

There were 46,557 patients included. NAT patients were younger, had more severe injuries and had a higher mortality rate compared to OT patients. Assault was the mechanism of injury in 95% of NAT patients. NAT assault patients were younger, required more intensive care unit (ICU) resources, and had a higher mortality rate compared to other assault patients.

CONCLUSION

Non-accidental trauma patients require more resources and have a higher mortality rate compared to accidental trauma patients, and these differences remain even when controlling for the mechanism of injury.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

Systematic review and need assessment of pediatric trauma outcome benchmarking tools for low-resource settings

INTRODUCTION

Trauma is a leading cause of mortality and disability in children worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that 95% of all childhood injury deaths occur in Low-Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). Injury scores have been developed to facilitate risk stratification, clinical decision making, and research. Trauma registries in LMIC depend on adapted trauma scores that do not rely on investigations that require unavailable material or human resources. We sought to review and assess the existing trauma scores used in pediatric patients. Our objective is to determine their wideness of use, validity, setting of use, outcome measures, and criticisms. We believe that there is a need for an adapted trauma score developed specifically for pediatric patients in low-resource settings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify and compare existing injury scores used in pediatric patients. We constructed a search strategy in collaboration with a senior hospital librarian. Multiple databases were searched, including Embase, Medline, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Articles were selected based on predefined inclusion criteria by two reviewers and underwent qualitative analysis.

RESULTS

The scores identified are suboptimal for use in pediatric patients in low-resource settings due to various factors, including reliance on precise anatomic diagnosis, physiologic parameters maladapted to pediatric patients, or laboratory data with inconsistent accessibility in LMIC.

CONCLUSION

An important gap exists in our ability to simply and reliably estimate injury severity in pediatric patients and predict their associated probability of outcomes in settings, where resources are limited. An ideal score should be easy to calculate using point-of-care data that are readily available in LMIC, and can be easily adapted to the specific physiologic variations of different age groups.

Predictors of mortality in pediatric trauma: experiences of a level 1 trauma center and an assessment of the International Classification Injury Severity Score (ICISS)

OBJECTIVES

Injury severity scoring tools allow systematic comparison of outcomes in trauma research and quality improvement by indexing an expected mortality risk for certain injuries. This study investigated the predictive value of the empirically derived ICD9-derived Injury Severity Score (ICISS) compared to expert consensus-derived scoring systems for trauma mortality in a pediatric population.

METHODS

1935 consecutive trauma patients aged <18 years from 1/2000 to 12/2012 were reviewed. Mechanism of injury (MOI), Injury Severity Score (ISS), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), Trauma Score ISS (TRISS), and ICISS were compared using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operator characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

The population was a median age of 11 ± 6 year, 70 % male, and 76 % blunt injury. Median ISS 13 ± 12 and overall mortality 3.5 %. Independent predictors of mortality were initial hematocrit [odds ratio (OR) 0.83 (0.73-0.95)], HCO3 [OR 0.82 (0.67-0.98)], Glasgow Coma Scale score [OR 0.75 (0.62-0.90)], and ISS [OR 1.10 (1.04-1.15)]. TRISS was superior to ICISS in predicting survival [area under receiver operator curve: 0.992 (0.982-1.000) vs 0.888 (0.838-0.938)].

CONCLUSIONS

ICISS was inferior to existing injury scoring tools at predicting mortality in pediatric trauma patients.

Mortality Risk in Pediatric Motor Vehicle Crash Occupants: Accounting for Developmental Stage and Challenging Abbreviated Injury Scale Metrics

OBJECTIVE

Survival risk ratios (SRRs) and their probabilistic counterpart, mortality risk ratios (MRRs), have been shown to be at odds with Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) severity scores for particular injuries in adults. SRRs have been validated for pediatrics but have not been studied within the context of pediatric age stratifications. We hypothesized that children with similar motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries may have different mortality risks (MR) based upon developmental stage and that these MRs may not correlate with AIS severity.

METHODS

The NASS-CDS 2000-2011 was used to define the top 95% most common AIS 2+ injuries among MVC occupants in 4 age groups: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-18 years. Next, the National Trauma Databank 2002-2011 was used to calculate the MR (proportion of those dying with an injury to those sustaining the injury) and the co-injury-adjusted MR (MRMAIS) for each injury within 6 age groups: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-18, 0-18, and 19+ years. MR differences were evaluated between age groups aggregately, between age groups based upon anatomic injury patterns and between age groups on an individual injury level using nonparametric Wilcoxon tests and chi-square or Fisher's exact tests as appropriate. Correlation between AIS and MR within each age group was also evaluated.

RESULTS

MR and MRMAIS distributions of the most common AIS 2+ injuries were right skewed. Aggregate MR of these most common injuries varied between the age groups, with 5- to 9-year-old and 10- to 14-year-old children having the lowest MRs and 0- to 4-year-old and 15- to 18-year-old children and adults having the highest MRs (all P <.05). Head and thoracic injuries imparted the greatest mortality risk in all age groups with median MRMAIS ranging from 0 to 6% and 0 to 4.5%, respectively. Injuries to particular body regions also varied with respect to MR based upon age. For example, thoracic injuries in adults had significantly higher MRMAIS than such injuries among 5- to 9-year-olds and 10- to 14-year-olds (P =.04; P <.01). Furthermore, though AIS was positively correlated with MR within each age group, less correlation was seen for children than for adults. Large MR variations were seen within each AIS grade, with some lower AIS severity injuries demonstrating greater MRs than higher AIS severity injuries. As an example, MRMAIS in 0- to 18-year-olds was 0.4% for an AIS 3 radius fracture versus 1.4% for an AIS 2 vault fracture.

CONCLUSIONS

Trauma severity metrics are important for outcome prediction models and can be used in pediatric triage algorithms and other injury research. Trauma severity may vary for similar injuries based upon developmental stage, and this difference should be reflected in severity metrics. The MR-based data-driven determination of injury severity in pediatric occupants of different age cohorts provides a supplement or an alternative to AIS severity classification for pediatric occupants in MVCs.

Pediatric Pancreatic Trauma: Trending toward Nonoperative Management?

Pancreatic trauma is rare in children and optimal care has not been defined. We undertook this study to review the cumulative experience from three centers. After obtaining Institutional Review Board approval at each site, the trauma registries of three institutions were searched for pancreatic injuries. The charts were reviewed and data pertaining to demographics, hospital course, and outcome were obtained and analyzed. During the study period, a total of 79 pancreatic injuries were noted. The most common mechanism of injury was motor vehicle crash (44%) followed by child abuse (11%) and bicycle crashes (11%). Computed tomographic (CT) scans were obtained in 95 per cent with peripancreatic fluid the most common finding. Median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9, whereas median organ injury score was 2, and a higher grade correlated with need for operation ( P = 0.001). Pancreatic operations were performed in 32 patients, whereas non-operative management was noted in 47 cases. We noted no differences in length of stay, age, ISS, or initial blood pressure in operative versus nonoperatively managed cases. Pancreatic injuries were rare in children with trauma. CT scans were the most common method of diagnosis. Nonoperative management appeared to be safe and was more common, especially for the lower grade injuries.

The counterintuitive effect of multiple injuries in severity scoring: a simple variable improves the predictive ability of NISS

Background

Injury scoring is important to formulate prognoses for trauma patients. Although scores based on empirical estimation allow for better prediction, those based on expert consensus, e.g. the New Injury Severity Score (NISS) are widely used. We describe how the addition of a variable quantifying the number of injuries improves the ability of NISS to predict mortality.

Methods

We analyzed 2488 injury cases included into the trauma registry of the Italian region Emilia-Romagna in 2006-2008 and assessed the ability of NISS alone, NISS plus number of injuries, and the maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) to predict in-hospital mortality. Hierarchical logistic regression was used. We measured discrimination through the C statistics, and calibration through Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration curves.

Results

The best discrimination and calibration resulted from the model with NISS plus number of injuries, followed by NISS alone and then by the maximum AIS (C statistics 0.775, 0.755, and 0.729, respectively; AIC 1602, 1635, and 1712, respectively). The predictive ability of all the models improved after inclusion of age, gender, mechanism of injury, and the motor component of Glasgow Coma Scale (C statistics 0.889, 0.898, and 0.901; AIC 1234, 1174, and 1167). The model with NISS plus number of injuries still showed the best performances, this time with borderline statistical significance.

Conclusions

In NISS, the same weight is assigned to the three worst injuries, although the contribution of the second and third to the probability of death is smaller than that of the worst one. An improvement of the predictive ability of NISS can be obtained adjusting for the number of injuries.

The impact of injury coding schemes on predicting hospital mortality after pediatric injury

OBJECTIVES

Accurate adjustment for injury severity is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of trauma management. While the choice of injury coding scheme used for modeling affects performance, the impact of combining coding schemes on performance has not been evaluated. The purpose of this study was to use Bayesian logistic regression to develop models predicting hospital mortality in injured children and to compare the performance of models developed using different injury coding schemes.

METHODS

Records of children (age < 15 years) admitted after injury were obtained from the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the National Pediatric Trauma Registry (NPTR) and used to train Bayesian logistic regression models predicting mortality using three injury coding schemes (International Classification of Disease-9th revision [ICD-9] injury codes, the Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] severity scores, and the Barell matrix) and their combinations. Model performance was evaluated using independent data from the NTDB and the Kids' Inpatient Database 2003 (KID).

RESULTS

Discrimination was optimal when modeling both ICD-9 and AIS severity codes (area under the receiver operating curve [AUC] = 0.921 [NTDB] and 0.967 [KID], Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] h-statistic = 115 [NTDB] and 147 [KID]), while calibration was optimal when modeling coding based on the Barell matrix (AUC = 0.882 [NTDB] and 0.936 [KID], HL h-statistic = 19 [NTDB] and 69 [KID]). When compared to models based on ICD-9 codes alone, models that also included AIS severity scores and coding from the Barell matrix showed improved discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality models that incorporate additional injury coding schemes perform better than those based on ICD-9 codes alone in the setting of pediatric trauma. Combining injury coding schemes may be an effective approach for improving the predictive performance of empirically derived estimates of injury mortality.