Early Versus Late Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Transplantation: Predictive Factors, Patterns, and Long-term Outcome

The role of cold ischemia time and hypothermic perfusion in predicting early hepatocellular carcinoma recurrences after liver transplantation

AIM

The aim of the study was to identify predictors of early tumor recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study in 237 consecutive liver recipients with HCC between 2016 and 2021. Multivariate logistic analysis was performed to identify predictors of early HCC recurrences. The impact of hypothermic-oxygenated perfusion (HOPE) on outcome was analyzed after propensity score weighting.

RESULTS

Early recurrences were observed in 15 cases. Microvascular invasion (OR 3.737, 95% CI 1.246-11.206, p = 0.019) and cold ischemia time (OR 1.155, 95% CI 1.001-1.333, p = 0.049) were independently associated with a lower risk of HCC recurrences. After balancing for relevant variables, patients in the HOPE group had lower rates of tumor recurrence (weighted OR 0.126, 95% CI 0.016-0.989, p = 0.049) and higher recurrence free survival (weighted HR 0.132, 95% CI 0.017-0.999, p = 0.050).

CONCLUSION

Reducing cold ischemia time and graft perfusion with HOPE can lead to lower rates of early HCC recurrences and higher recurrence-free survival.

Impact of an artificial intelligence based model to predict non-transplantable recurrence among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

We sought to develop Artificial Intelligence (AI) based models to predict non-transplantable recurrence (NTR) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatic resection (HR).

METHODS

HCC patients who underwent HR between 2000-2020 were identified from a multi-institutional database. NTR was defined as recurrence beyond Milan Criteria. Different machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques were used to develop and validate two prediction models for NTR, one using only preoperative factors and a second using both preoperative and postoperative factors.

RESULTS

Overall, 1763 HCC patients were included. Among 877 patients with recurrence, 364 (41.5%) patients developed NTR. An ensemble AI model demonstrated the highest area under ROC curves (AUC) of 0.751 (95% CI: 0.719-0.782) and 0.717 (95% CI:0.653-0.782) in the training and testing cohorts, respectively which improved to 0.858 (95% CI: 0.835-0.884) and 0.764 (95% CI: 0.704-0.826), respectively after incorporation of postoperative pathologic factors. Radiologic tumor burden score and pathological microvascular invasion were the most important preoperative and postoperative factors, respectively to predict NTR. Patients predicted to develop NTR had overall 1- and 5-year survival of 75.6% and 28.2%, versus 93.4% and 55.9%, respectively, among patients predicted to not develop NTR (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The AI preoperative model may help inform decision of HR versus LT for HCC, while the combined AI model can frame individualized postoperative care (https://altaf-pawlik-hcc-ntr-calculator.streamlit.app/).

Repeat hepatectomy versus percutaneous ablation for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma: emphasis on the impact of early or late recurrence

PURPOSE

Recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) patients with early recurrence usually suffer a poorer prognosis than those with late recurrence. We aimed to compare the treatment efficacy of repeat hepatectomy (RH) and percutaneous ablation (PA) in early-stage rHCC patients with early or late recurrence.

METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 268 patients diagnosed with early-stage rHCC who received RH and PA. Overall survival (OS) and repeat recurrence-free survival (rRFS) were compared using log-rank analysis. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to reduce the confounding bias.

RESULTS

Among the 268 patients with early-stage rHCC, 79 underwent RH and 189 underwent PA. Early (n = 174) and late (n = 94) recurrence was defined as recurrence within and after 2 years following initial hepatectomy, respectively. For patients with early recurrence, RH and PA provided similar 5-year OS (71.5% versus 74.4%, P = 0.87) and rRFS rates (24.7% versus 24.9%, P = 0.73). For patients with late recurrence, RH resulted in comparable 5-year OS (73.1% versus 86.1%, P = 0.62) and rRFS rates (36.6% versus 27.8%, P = 0.34) as PA. After PSM, RH continued to share similar 5-year OS and rRFS rates with PA in patients with early recurrence, and comparable efficacy of RH and PA was also observed in patients with late recurrence.

CONCLUSION

RH can offer comparable OS and rRFS rates as PA for early-stage rHCC patients, regardless of whether they experience early or late recurrence. Therefore, both RH and PA are feasible treatment options for early-stage rHCC patients.

Additional value of interleukin-6 level to predict histopathological features of hepatocellular carcinoma before liver transplantation

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Inflammatory biomarkers are increasingly used as outcome predictors in the field of oncology and liver transplantation for HCC, but no study has shown the prognostic value of IL6 after LT. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of IL-6 on histopathological features of HCC on explant, its predictive value on recurrence risk and its additional value to other scores and inflammatory markers at the time of transplantation.

METHODS

From 2009 to 2019, all adults transplanted with a first liver graft and diagnosed with HCC on the explant analysis were retrospectively included (n = 229). Only patients who had a pre-LT IL6 level determination were analysed in this study (n = 204).

RESULTS

High IL-6 level at transplantation was associated with a significantly higher risk of vascular invasion (15% vs 6%; p = 0.023), microsatellitosis (11% vs 3%; p = 0.013), lower rate of histological response both in terms of complete response (2% vs 14%, p = 0.004) and of necrosis (p = 0.010). Patients with pre-LT IL-6 level > 15 ng/ml had a lower overall and cancer-specific survival (p = 0.013). Recurrence-free survival was lower in patients with IL-6 > 15 ng/ml with a 3-year recurrence-free survival of 88% versus 78% (p = 0.034). IL6 levels were significantly higher in patients with early recurrence compared to patients without (p = 0.002) or with late recurrence (p = 0.044).

CONCLUSIONS

IL6 level at transplantation is an independent predictor of pejorative histological features of HCC and is associated to the risk of recurrence.

Incremental value of radiomics-based heterogeneity to the existing risk criteria in predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to evaluate the association between the radiomics-based intratumoral heterogeneity (ITH) and the recurrence risk in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after liver transplantation (LT), and to assess its incremental to the Milan, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), Metro-Ticket 2.0, and Hangzhou criteria.

METHODS

A multicenter cohort of 196 HCC patients were investigated. The endpoint was recurrence-free survival (RFS) after LT. A CT-based radiomics signature (RS) was constructed and assessed in the whole cohort and in the subgroups stratified by the Milan, UCSF, Metro-Ticket 2.0, and Hangzhou criteria. The R-Milan, R-UCSF, R-Metro-Ticket 2.0, and R-Hangzhou nomograms which combined RS and the four existing risk criteria were developed respectively. The incremental value of RS to the four existing risk criteria in RFS prediction was evaluated.

RESULTS

RS was significantly associated with RFS in the training and test cohorts as well as in the subgroups stratified by the existing risk criteria. The four combined nomograms showed better predictive capability than the existing risk criteria did with higher C-indices (R-Milan [training/test] vs. Milan, 0.745/0.765 vs. 0.677; R-USCF vs. USCF, 0.748/0.767 vs. 0.675; R-Metro-Ticket 2.0 vs. Metro-Ticket 2.0, 0.756/0.783 vs. 0.670; R-Hangzhou vs. Hangzhou, 0.751/0.760 vs. 0.691) and higher clinical net benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

The radiomics-based ITH can predict outcomes and provide incremental value to the existing risk criteria in HCC patients after LT. Incorporating radiomics-based ITH in HCC risk criteria may facilitate candidate selection, surveillance, and adjuvant trial design.

KEY POINTS

• Milan, USCF, Metro-Ticket 2.0, and Hangzhou criteria may be insufficient for outcome prediction in HCC after LT. • Radiomics allows for the characterization of tumor heterogeneity. • Radiomics adds incremental value to the existing criteria in outcome prediction.

Therapeutic Effects of Anti-PD1 Immunotherapy on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Under Administration of Tacrolimus

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is the treatment of choice for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recurrence of HCC after LT occurs in 10% to 20% of cases. Preclinical studies to evaluate immune checkpoint inhibitors in conjunction with immunosuppressant treatment in transplant recipients have been lacking. Here, we evaluated the efficacy, safety, and mechanism of programmed cell death-1 (PD1) blockade under tacrolimus treatment in transplant recipients.

METHODS

We used a murine allogeneic skin transplantation model and murine syngeneic subcutaneous and orthotopic HCC models and measured the tumor volume and the change in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes under PD1 blockade and tacrolimus treatment.

RESULTS

Tacrolimus treatment prolonged allograft survival in the allogeneic transplantation model and enhanced tumor growth in both subcutaneous and orthotopic HCC models. PD1 blockade suppressed tumor growth and lung metastasis in correlation with the number of infiltrating CD8 + T cells. Under tacrolimus treatment, PD1 blockade still resulted in an antitumor effect accompanied by a significant increase in tumor-infiltrating CD8 + T cells, natural killer cells, dendritic cells, and natural killer T cells. Tacrolimus treatment rescued the acceleration of transplant rejection induced by PD1 blockade in the allogeneic transplantation model.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that treatment with high-dose tacrolimus in conjunction with PD1 blockade has an antitumor effect and reduces transplant rejection in mouse models of allograft skin transplantation and HCC. Thus, these results suggest that a clinical trial of PD1 inhibitors for HCC in LT merits consideration.

TBS-Based Preoperative Score to Predict Non-transplantable Recurrence and Identify Candidates for Upfront Resection Versus Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Recurrence following liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be as high as 50-70%. While salvage liver transplantation may be feasible, patients may develop a non-transplantable recurrence (NTR) (recurrence beyond Milan criteria). We sought to identify preoperative risk factors to predict NTR after resection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent LR for HCC were identified from a multi-institutional database. Preoperative factors associated with NTR were identified and a risk score model (NTR score) was developed and validated.

RESULTS

Among 1620 patients, 842 (52.0%) developed recurrence; among patients with recurrence, NTR occurred in 341 (40.5%) with a median recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 30 months (24.7-35.3 months). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with NTR included alpha fetoprotein (AFP) > 400 ng/mL [hazard ratio (HR) 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-2.19], albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI) (referent low, medium ALBI: HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.10-1.81, high ALBI: HR 2.47, 95% CI 0.91-6.68), and tumor burden score (TBS) (referent low, high TBS: HR 2.55, 95% CI, 1.99-3.28). A simplified TBS-based NTR score was developed using the β-coefficients of each factor (C-index 0.68, 95% CI 0.65-0.71). Higher NTR score was associated with incrementally worse 5-year RFS (low 44.8%, medium 37.5%, high 24.5%) [area under the curve (AUC) 0.59] and increased incidence of NTR (low 13.7%, medium 25.4%, high 38.2%) (AUC 0.65) (both p < 0.001). Moreover, higher NTR score was associated with higher risk of extrahepatic recurrence (low 11.3%, medium 28.8%, high 37.5%) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

NTR following curative-intent resection of HCC occurred in one in five patients. A simple TBS-based NTR score accurately predicted the risk of NTR and may help identify candidates for upfront resection versus transplantation.

Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Posttreatment Recurrence in Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using Pretreatment Clinical and MRI Features: A Proof-of-Concept Study

BACKGROUND. Posttreatment recurrence is an unpredictable complication after liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that is associated with poor survival. Biomarkers are needed to estimate recurrence risk before organ allocation. OBJECTIVE. This proof-of-concept study evaluated the use of machine learning (ML) to predict recurrence from pretreatment laboratory, clinical, and MRI data in patients with early-stage HCC initially eligible for liver transplant. METHODS. This retrospective study included 120 patients (88 men, 32 women; median age, 60.0 years) with early-stage HCC diagnosed who were initially eligible for liver transplant and underwent treatment by transplant, resection, or thermal ablation between June 2005 and March 2018. Patients underwent pretreatment MRI and posttreatment imaging surveillance. Imaging features were extracted from postcontrast phases of pretreatment MRI examinations using a pretrained convolutional neural network. Pretreatment clinical characteristics (including laboratory data) and extracted imaging features were integrated to develop three ML models (clinical model, imaging model, combined model) for predicting recurrence within six time frames ranging from 1 through 6 years after treatment. Kaplan-Meier analysis with time to recurrence as the endpoint was used to assess the clinical relevance of model predictions. RESULTS. Tumor recurred in 44 of 120 (36.7%) patients during follow-up. The three models predicted recurrence with AUCs across the six time frames of 0.60-0.78 (clinical model), 0.71-0.85 (imaging model), and 0.62-0.86 (combined model). The mean AUC was higher for the imaging model than the clinical model (0.76 vs 0.68, respectively; p = .03), but the mean AUC was not significantly different between the clinical and combined models or between the imaging and combined models (p > .05). Kaplan-Meier curves were significantly different between patients predicted to be at low risk and those predicted to be at high risk by all three models for the 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, and 6-year time frames (p < .05). CONCLUSION. The findings suggest that ML-based models can predict recurrence before therapy allocation in patients with early-stage HCC initially eligible for liver transplant. Adding MRI data as model input improved predictive performance over clinical parameters alone. The combined model did not surpass the imaging model's performance. CLINICAL IMPACT. ML-based models applied to currently underutilized imaging features may help design more reliable criteria for organ allocation and liver transplant eligibility.

Therapeutic strategies for post-transplant recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma

Despite stringent selection criteria, hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) still occurs in up to 20% of cases, mostly within the first 2–3 years. No adjuvant treatments to prevent such an occurrence have been developed so far. However, a balanced use of immunosuppression with minimal dose of calcineurin inhibitors and possible addition of mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors is strongly advisable. Moreover, several pre- and post-transplant predictors of recurrence have been identified and may help determine the frequency and duration of post-transplant follow-up. When recurrence occurs, the outcomes are poor with a median survival of 12 mo according to most retrospective studies. The factor that most impacts survival after recurrence is timing (within 1–2 years from LT according to different authors). Several therapeutic options may be chosen in case of recurrence, according to timing and disease presentation. Surgical treatment seems to provide a survival benefit, especially in case of late recurrence, while the benefit of locoregional treatments has been suggested only in small retrospective studies. When systemic treatment is indicated, sorafenib has been proved safe and effective, while only few data are available for lenvatinib and regorafenib in second line. The use of immune checkpoint inhibitors is controversial in this setting, given the safety warnings for the risk of acute rejection.

Non-transplantable Recurrence After Resection for Transplantable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Implication for Upfront Treatment Choice

OBJECTIVES

To identify the preoperative risk factors for prediction of non-transplantable recurrence (NTR) after tumor resection for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to assist in patient selection relative to upfront liver resection (LR) versus liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative resection for transplantable HCC and chronic liver disease were identified from an international multi-institutional database. NTR was defined as recurrence beyond the Milan or UCSF criteria, and the preoperative risk factors of NTR were investigated.

RESULTS

Among 293 patients with transplantable HCC within Milan criteria and 320 within UCSF criteria, 113 (38.6%) and 131 (40.9%) patients developed tumor recurrence, respectively. Among patients who recurred, NTR was present in 32 (28.3%) patients within Milan and 35 (26.7%) within UCSF criteria. When either Milan or UCSF criteria was adopted, three preoperative risk factors including liver cirrhosis, tumor size > 3 cm, and multiple lesions were consistently identified as risk factors associated with NTR after curative resection. By summing up the three factors, a scoring model was established and the incidence of NTR among patients with 0, 1 or ≥ 2 risk factors incrementally increased from 4.5%, 13.3% to 20.5% when Milan criteria was used, and from 4.5%, 12.4% to 33.9% when UCSF criteria was adopted. The model demonstrated very good discriminatory power on internal validation (n = 5,000) (c-index 0.689 for Milan criteria, and 0.715 for UCSF criteria).

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas surgical resection may be optimal first-line treatment for patients with no or one risk factor, patients with ≥ 2 risk factors should be considered for upfront liver transplantation.

Prediction of late recurrence after radiofrequency ablation of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma with the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) risk score: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Long-term survivals of patients with HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma are limited by the high incidence of tumor recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA), identification of the risk factors and understanding the patterns of recurrence can help to improve the comprehensive management of patients after RFA. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to explore the prognostic value of the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) score in patients with early-stage HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving RFA; investigate the risk factors and patterns of late recurrence (LR); and develop a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS).

METHODS

A retrospective review of HBV-related HCC patients who underwent primary RFA from March 2012 to December 2020 was conducted. The prognostic value of the aMAP score was evaluated in a primary cohort (n=302) and then further validated in an independent validation cohort (n=143). The optimal threshold of aMAP scores was calculated by X-tile 3.6.1 software. A prognostic nomogram was constructed from multivariate analysis and validated in an external validation cohort.

RESULTS

Patients with aMAP scores ≤63.8, 63.8-67.8, and >67.8 were classified into low-, medium-, and high-recurrence risk groups, respectively. The C-index to predict LR was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.700-0.810). The high-risk group was associated with the worst RFS (HR: 5.298; 95% CI, 2.697-10.408; P<0.001) and overall survival (OS) (HR: 2.639; 95% CI, 1.097-6.344; P=0.03) compared with medium- and low-risk groups. The aMAP score, multiple tumors and preoperative HBV DNA level were independent risk factors for LR. The proposed nomogram had excellent performance in predicting LR of HBV-related HCC [C-index: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.772-0.870)].

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that the aMAP score can serve as an objective predictor of LR for HBV-related HCC patients after RFA. The nomogram based on preoperative HBV DNA level, aMAP score, and number of tumors can reliably help clinicians to stratify the recurrence risk of HCC patients after RFA.

High trough levels of everolimus combined to sorafenib improve patients survival after hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in liver transplant recipients

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation (LT) occurs in 10%-20% of patients transplanted for HCC. The treatment of HCC recurrence after LT remains a challenge. Consecutive patients who underwent LT for HCC between 2005 and 2015 at our center were recruited. Characteristics of patients with recurrence, modalities of treatment and outcome were collected retrospectively. Patient survival was analyzed according to HCC recurrence therapeutic strategy. Among 306 transplanted patients, 43 patients (14.1%) developed recurrence with a median survival time after recurrence of 10.9 months (95%CI: 6.6-18.6). Survival of patients treated with Sorafenib (SOR) and everolimus (EVL) (n = 19) was significantly better than that of the group treated with other strategies (n = 24) (P = 0.001). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that SOR plus EVL therapy and absence of dissemination at diagnosis of recurrence were independent predictive factors of prolonged survival after recurrence. Among the patients who treated with EVL, survival of patients with controlled EVL blood trough levels ≥5 ng/ml was significantly better compared to those with EVL trough levels <5 ng/ml (P = 0.021). Combination therapy of sorafenib and everolimus was an independent predictor for better survival after HCC recurrence. Patients with controlled everolimus trough level ≥5 ng/ml might get the best survival benefit.