Alzheimer Disease Biomarkers as Outcome Measures for Clinical Trials in MCI

Multifactorial Modeling of Cognitive Trajectories Using an Advanced Regression Technique: Improving Our Understanding of Biomarkers and Modifiable Variables that Support Cognition

Current research trends emphasize complex models of cognitive outcomes, with multiple, interacting predictors, including factors amenable to interventions toward sustaining healthy cognitive aging. Such models often require advanced analysis techniques. The article by Stark et al., 'Partial least squares regression analysis of Alzheimer's disease biomarkers, modifiable health variables, and cognitive change in older adults with mild cognitive impairment', uses partial least squares regression to examine the associations to memory and executive change of 29 biomarker and demographic variables. This commentary discusses the significance of their results and methods within the context of current research foci.

Anti-Inflammatory Agents: An Approach to Prevent Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease

Systemic inflammation is an organism's response to an assault by the non-self. However, that inflammation may predispose humans to illnesses targeted to organs, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). Lesions in AD have pro-inflammatory cytokines and activated microglial/monocyte/macrophage cells. Up to this point, clinical trials using anti-amyloid monoclonal antibodies have not shown success. Maybe it is time to look elsewhere by combating inflammation. Neuroinflammation with CNS cellular activation and excessive expression of immune cytokines is suspected as the "principal culprit" in the higher risk for sporadic AD. Microglia, the resident immune cell of the CNS, perivascular myeloid cells, and activated macrophages produce IL-1, IL-6 at higher levels in patients with AD. Anti-inflammatory measures that target cellular/cytokine-mediated damage provide a rational therapeutic strategy. We propose a clinical trial using oral type 1 IFNs to act as such an agent; one that decreases IL-1 and IL-6 secretion by activating lamina propria lymphocytes in the gut associated lymphoid tissue with subsequent migration to the brain undergoing inflammatory responses. A clinical trial would be double-blind, parallel 1-year clinical trial randomized 1 : 1 oral active type 1 IFN versus best medical therapy to determine whether ingested type I IFN would decrease the rate of cognitive decline in mild cognitive impairment or mild AD. Using cognitive psychometrics, imaging, and fluid biomarkers (MxA for effective type I IFN activity beyond the gut), we can determine if oral type I IFN can prevent cognitive decline in AD.

Structural magnetic resonance imaging for the early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with mild cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to Alzheimer's disease is the symptomatic predementia phase of Alzheimer's disease dementia, characterised by cognitive and functional impairment not severe enough to fulfil the criteria for dementia. In clinical samples, people with amnestic MCI are at high risk of developing Alzheimer's disease dementia, with annual rates of progression from MCI to Alzheimer's disease estimated at approximately 10% to 15% compared with the base incidence rates of Alzheimer's disease dementia of 1% to 2% per year.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI versus the clinical follow-up diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia as a reference standard (delayed verification). To investigate sources of heterogeneity in accuracy, such as the use of qualitative visual assessment or quantitative volumetric measurements, including manual or automatic (MRI) techniques, or the length of follow-up, and age of participants. MRI was evaluated as an add-on test in addition to clinical diagnosis of MCI to improve early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI.

SEARCH METHODS

On 29 January 2019 we searched Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement's Specialised Register and the databases, MEDLINE, Embase, BIOSIS Previews, Science Citation Index, PsycINFO, and LILACS. We also searched the reference lists of all eligible studies identified by the electronic searches.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered cohort studies of any size that included prospectively recruited people of any age with a diagnosis of MCI. We included studies that compared the diagnostic test accuracy of baseline structural MRI versus the clinical follow-up diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia (delayed verification). We did not exclude studies on the basis of length of follow-up. We included studies that used either qualitative visual assessment or quantitative volumetric measurements of MRI to detect atrophy in the whole brain or in specific brain regions, such as the hippocampus, medial temporal lobe, lateral ventricles, entorhinal cortex, medial temporal gyrus, lateral temporal lobe, amygdala, and cortical grey matter.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Four teams of two review authors each independently reviewed titles and abstracts of articles identified by the search strategy. Two teams of two review authors each independently assessed the selected full-text articles for eligibility, extracted data and solved disagreements by consensus. Two review authors independently assessed the quality of studies using the QUADAS-2 tool. We used the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) model to fit summary ROC curves and to obtain overall measures of relative accuracy in subgroup analyses. We also used these models to obtain pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity when sufficient data sets were available.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 33 studies, published from 1999 to 2019, with 3935 participants of whom 1341 (34%) progressed to Alzheimer's disease dementia and 2594 (66%) did not. Of the participants who did not progress to Alzheimer's disease dementia, 2561 (99%) remained stable MCI and 33 (1%) progressed to other types of dementia. The median proportion of women was 53% and the mean age of participants ranged from 63 to 87 years (median 73 years). The mean length of clinical follow-up ranged from 1 to 7.6 years (median 2 years). Most studies were of poor methodological quality due to risk of bias for participant selection or the index test, or both. Most of the included studies reported data on the volume of the total hippocampus (pooled mean sensitivity 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 0.80); pooled mean specificity 0.71 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.77); 22 studies, 2209 participants). This evidence was of low certainty due to risk of bias and inconsistency. Seven studies reported data on the atrophy of the medial temporal lobe (mean sensitivity 0.64 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.73); mean specificity 0.65 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.76); 1077 participants) and five studies on the volume of the lateral ventricles (mean sensitivity 0.57 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.65); mean specificity 0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.70); 1077 participants). This evidence was of moderate certainty due to risk of bias. Four studies with 529 participants analysed the volume of the total entorhinal cortex and four studies with 424 participants analysed the volume of the whole brain. We did not estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity for the volume of these two regions because available data were sparse and heterogeneous. We could not statistically evaluate the volumes of the lateral temporal lobe, amygdala, medial temporal gyrus, or cortical grey matter assessed in small individual studies. We found no evidence of a difference between studies in the accuracy of the total hippocampal volume with regards to duration of follow-up or age of participants, but the manual MRI technique was superior to automatic techniques in mixed (mostly indirect) comparisons. We did not assess the relative accuracy of the volumes of different brain regions measured by MRI because only indirect comparisons were available, studies were heterogeneous, and the overall accuracy of all regions was moderate.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The volume of hippocampus or medial temporal lobe, the most studied brain regions, showed low sensitivity and specificity and did not qualify structural MRI as a stand-alone add-on test for an early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI. This is consistent with international guidelines, which recommend imaging to exclude non-degenerative or surgical causes of cognitive impairment and not to diagnose dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. In view of the low quality of most of the included studies, the findings of this review should be interpreted with caution. Future research should not focus on a single biomarker, but rather on combinations of biomarkers to improve an early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia.

The Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog): Modifications and Responsiveness in Pre-Dementia Populations. A Narrative Review

The Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale–Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) was developed in the 1980s to assess the level of cognitive dysfunction in Alzheimer’s disease. Advancements in the research field have shifted focus toward pre-dementia populations, and use of the ADAS-Cog has extended into these pre-dementia studies despite concerns about its ability to detect important changes at these milder stages of disease progression. If the ADAS-Cog cannot detect important changes, our understanding of pre-dementia disease progression may be compromised and trials may incorrectly conclude that a novel treatment approach is not beneficial. The purpose of this review was to assess the performance of the ADAS-Cog in pre-dementia populations, and to review all modifications that have been made to the ADAS-Cog to improve its measurement performance in dementia or pre-dementia populations. The contents of this review are based on bibliographic searches of electronic databases to locate all studies using the ADAS-Cog in pre-dementia samples or subsamples, and to locate all modified versions. Citations from relevant articles were also consulted. Overall, our results suggest the original ADAS-Cog is not an optimal outcome measure for pre-dementia studies; however, given the prominence of the ADAS-Cog, care must be taken when considering the use of alternative outcome measures. Thirty-one modified versions of the ADAS-Cog were found. Modification approaches that appear most beneficial include altering scoring methodology or adding tests of memory, executive function, and/or daily functioning. Although modifications improve the performance of the ADAS-Cog, this is at the cost of introducing heterogeneity that may limit between-study comparison.

Comparison of Clopidogrel and Ticlopidine/Ginkgo Biloba in Patients With Clopidogrel Resistance and Carotid Stenting

Background and Purpose: Patients undergoing carotid artery stenting (CAS) who show low responsiveness to clopidogrel may have a higher risk of peri-procedural embolic events. This study aimed to compare the effectiveness and safety of clopidogrel and ticlopidine plus Ginkgo biloba in clopidogrel-resistant patients undergoing CAS.

Methods: In this multi-center, randomized, controlled trial, we used platelet reactivity test to select patients undergoing CAS who showed clopidogrel resistance, and compared treatments using clopidogrel and ticlopidine plus ginkgo. The primary outcome was the incidence of new ischemic lesion in the ipsilateral hemisphere of CAS. Detection of microembolic signal on transcranial Doppler was the secondary outcome. The clinical outcomes were also monitored.

Results: This trial was discontinued after 42 patients were randomized after preplanned interim sample size re-estimation indicated an impractical sample size. The primary endpoint occurred in 12/22 patients (54.5%) in the clopidogrel group and 13/20 patients (65.0%) in the ticlopidine–ginkgo group (P = 0.610). No significant differences in the presence of microembolic signal (15.0 vs. 11.8%, P = 0.580), clinical outcomes (ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, 0.0 vs. 5.5%; acute myocardial infarction 0.0 vs. 0.0%; all-cause death, 4.5 vs. 0.0%), or incidence of adverse events were found in the two groups. In terms of resistance to clopidogrel, treatment with ticlopidine–ginkgo significantly increased the P2Y12 Reaction Units (difference, 0.0 [−0.3–3.0] vs. 21.0 [6.0–35.0], P < 0.001).

Conclusions: In patients who showed clopidogrel resistance, ticlopidine–ginkgo treatment was safe and increased P2Y12 Reaction Units; however, compared to clopidogrel, it failed to improve surrogate and clinical endpoints in patients undergoing CAS. This multimodal biomarker-based clinical trial is feasible in neurointerventional research.

Clinical Trial Registration:http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02133989.

Measuring cognition and function in the preclinical stage of Alzheimer's disease

The Alzheimer's Association's Research Roundtable met in November 2016 to explore how best to measure changes in cognition and function in the preclinical stage of Alzheimer's disease. This review will cover the tools and instruments currently available to identify populations for prevention trials, and measure subtle disease progression in the earliest stages of Alzheimer's disease, and will include discussions of suitable cognitive, behavioral, functional, composite, and biological endpoints for prevention trials. Current prevention trials are reviewed including TOMMOROW, Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative Autosomal Dominant Alzheimer's Disease Trial, the Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative Generation Study, and the Anti-Amyloid Treatment in Asymptomatic Alzheimer's to compare current approaches and tools that are being developed.

18F PET with florbetapir for the early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia and other dementias in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI)

BACKGROUND

¹⁸F-florbetapir uptake by brain tissue measured by positron emission tomography (PET) is accepted by regulatory agencies like the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicine Agencies (EMA) for assessing amyloid load in people with dementia. Its added value is mainly demonstrated by excluding Alzheimer's pathology in an established dementia diagnosis. However, the National Institute on Aging and Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) revised the diagnostic criteria for Alzheimer's disease and confidence in the diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to Alzheimer's disease may be increased when using amyloid biomarkers tests like ¹⁸F-florbetapir. These tests, added to the MCI core clinical criteria, might increase the diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) of a testing strategy. However, the DTA of ¹⁸F-florbetapir to predict the progression from MCI to Alzheimer's disease dementia (ADD) or other dementias has not yet been systematically evaluated.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the DTA of the ¹⁸F-florbetapir PET scan for detecting people with MCI at time of performing the test who will clinically progress to ADD, other forms of dementia (non-ADD), or any form of dementia at follow-up.

SEARCH METHODS

This review is current to May 2017. We searched MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), PsycINFO (OvidSP), BIOSIS Citation Index (Thomson Reuters Web of Science), Web of Science Core Collection, including the Science Citation Index (Thomson Reuters Web of Science) and the Conference Proceedings Citation Index (Thomson Reuters Web of Science), LILACS (BIREME), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), ClinicalTrials.gov (https://clinicaltrials.gov), and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP) (http://www.who.int/ictrp/search/en/). We also searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia & Cognitive Improvement Group's specialised register of dementia studies (http://www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/alois/). We checked the reference lists of any relevant studies and systematic reviews, and performed citation tracking using the Science Citation Index to identify any additional relevant studies. No language or date restrictions were applied to the electronic searches.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies that had prospectively defined cohorts with any accepted definition of MCI at time of performing the test and the use of ¹⁸F-florbetapir scan to evaluate the DTA of the progression from MCI to ADD or other forms of dementia. In addition, we only selected studies that applied a reference standard for Alzheimer's dementia diagnosis, for example, National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and the Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association (NINCDS-ADRDA) or Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV (DSM-IV) criteria.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles and abstracts identified in electronic-database searches. Two review authors independently selected studies for inclusion and extracted data to create two-by-two tables, showing the binary test results cross-classified with the binary reference standard. We used these data to calculate sensitivities, specificities, and their 95% confidence intervals. Two independent assessors performed quality assessment using the QUADAS-2 tool plus some additional items to assess the methodological quality of the included studies.

MAIN RESULTS

We included three studies, two of which evaluated the progression from MCI to ADD, and one evaluated the progression from MCI to any form of dementia.Progression from MCI to ADD was evaluated in 448 participants. The studies reported data on 401 participants with 1.6 years of follow-up and in 47 participants with three years of follow-up. Sixty-one (15.2%) participants converted at 1.6 years follow-up; nine (19.1%) participants converted at three years of follow-up.Progression from MCI to any form of dementia was evaluated in five participants with 1.5 years of follow-up, with three (60%) participants converting to any form of dementia.There were concerns regarding applicability in the reference standard in all three studies. Regarding the domain of flow and timing, two studies were considered at high risk of bias. MCI to ADD;Progression from MCI to ADD in those with a follow-up between two to less than four years had a sensitivity of 67% (95% CI 30 to 93) and a specificity of 71% (95% CI 54 to 85) by visual assessment (n = 47, 1 study).Progression from MCI to ADD in those with a follow-up between one to less than two years had a sensitivity of 89% (95% CI 78 to 95) and a specificity of 58% (95% CI 53 to 64) by visual assessment, and a sensitivity of 87% (95% CI 76 to 94) and a specificity of 51% (95% CI 45 to 56) by quantitative assessment by the standardised uptake value ratio (SUVR)(n = 401, 1 study). MCI to any form of dementia;Progression from MCI to any form of dementia in those with a follow-up between one to less than two years had a sensitivity of 67% (95% CI 9 to 99) and a specificity of 50% (95% CI 1 to 99) by visual assessment (n = 5, 1 study). MCI to any other forms of dementia (non-ADD);There was no information regarding the progression from MCI to any other form of dementia (non-ADD).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Although sensitivity was good in one included study, considering the poor specificity and the limited data available in the literature, we cannot recommend routine use of ¹⁸F-florbetapir PET in clinical practice to predict the progression from MCI to ADD.Because of the poor sensitivity and specificity, limited number of included participants, and the limited data available in the literature, we cannot recommend its routine use in clinical practice to predict the progression from MCI to any form of dementia.Because of the high financial costs of ¹⁸F-florbetapir, clearly demonstrating the DTA and standardising the process of this modality are important prior to its wider use.

18F PET with flutemetamol for the early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia and other dementias in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI)

BACKGROUND

¹⁸F-flutemetamol uptake by brain tissue, measured by positron emission tomography (PET), is accepted by regulatory agencies like the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicine Agencies (EMA) for assessing amyloid load in people with dementia. Its added value is mainly demonstrated by excluding Alzheimer's pathology in an established dementia diagnosis. However, the National Institute on Aging and Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) revised the diagnostic criteria for Alzheimer's disease and the confidence in the diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to Alzheimer's disease may be increased when using some amyloid biomarkers tests like ¹⁸F-flutemetamol. These tests, added to the MCI core clinical criteria, might increase the diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) of a testing strategy. However, the DTA of ¹⁸F-flutemetamol to predict the progression from MCI to Alzheimer's disease dementia (ADD) or other dementias has not yet been systematically evaluated.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the DTA of the ¹⁸F-flutemetamol PET scan for detecting people with MCI at time of performing the test who will clinically progress to ADD, other forms of dementia (non-ADD) or any form of dementia at follow-up.

SEARCH METHODS

The most recent search for this review was performed in May 2017. We searched MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), PsycINFO (OvidSP), BIOSIS Citation Index (Thomson Reuters Web of Science), Web of Science Core Collection, including the Science Citation Index (Thomson Reuters Web of Science) and the Conference Proceedings Citation Index (Thomson Reuters Web of Science), LILACS (BIREME), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), ClinicalTrials.gov (https://clinicaltrials.gov), and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP) (http://www.who.int/ictrp/search/en/). We also searched ALOIS, the Cochrane Dementia & Cognitive Improvement Group's specialised register of dementia studies (http://www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/alois/). We checked the reference lists of any relevant studies and systematic reviews, and performed citation tracking using the Science Citation Index to identify any additional relevant studies. No language or date restrictions were applied to the electronic searches.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies that had prospectively defined cohorts with any accepted definition of MCI at time of performing the test and the use of ¹⁸F-flutemetamol scan to evaluate the DTA of the progression from MCI to ADD or other forms of dementia. In addition, we only selected studies that applied a reference standard for Alzheimer's dementia diagnosis, for example, National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and the Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association (NINCDS-ADRDA) or Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV (DSM-IV) criteria.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles and abstracts identified in electronic-database searches. Two review authors independently selected studies for inclusion and extracted data to create two-by-two tables, showing the binary test results cross-classified with the binary reference standard. We used these data to calculate sensitivities, specificities, and their 95% confidence intervals. Two independent assessors performed quality assessment using the QUADAS-2 tool plus some additional items to assess the methodological quality of the included studies.

MAIN RESULTS

Progression from MCI to ADD was evaluated in 243 participants from two studies. The studies reported data on 19 participants with two years of follow-up and on 224 participants with three years of follow-up. Nine (47.4%) participants converted at two years follow-up and 81 (36.2%) converted at three years of follow-up.There were concerns about participant selection and sampling in both studies. The index test domain in one study was considered unclear and in the second study it was considered at low risk of bias. For the reference standard domain, one study was considered at low risk and the second study was considered to have an unclear risk of bias. Regarding the domains of flow and timing, both studies were considered at high risk of bias. MCI to ADD;Progression from MCI to ADD at two years of follow-up had a sensitivity of 89% (95% CI 52 to 100) and a specificity of 80% (95% CI 44 to 97) by quantitative assessment by SUVR (n = 19, 1 study).Progression from MCI to ADD at three years of follow-up had a sensitivity of 64% (95% CI 53 to 75) and a specificity of 69% (95% CI 60 to 76) by visual assessment (n = 224, 1 study).There was no information regarding the other two objectives in this systematic review (SR): progression from MCI to other forms of dementia and progression to any form of dementia at follow-up.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Due to the varying sensitivity and specificity for predicting the progression from MCI to ADD and the limited data available, we cannot recommend routine use of ¹⁸F-flutemetamol in clinical practice. ¹⁸F-flutemetamol has high financial costs; therefore, clearly demonstrating its DTA and standardising the process of the ¹⁸F-flutemetamol modality is important prior to its wider use.

Recent publications from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative: Reviewing progress toward improved AD clinical trials

INTRODUCTION

The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) has continued development and standardization of methodologies for biomarkers and has provided an increased depth and breadth of data available to qualified researchers. This review summarizes the over 400 publications using ADNI data during 2014 and 2015.

METHODS

We used standard searches to find publications using ADNI data.

RESULTS

(1) Structural and functional changes, including subtle changes to hippocampal shape and texture, atrophy in areas outside of hippocampus, and disruption to functional networks, are detectable in presymptomatic subjects before hippocampal atrophy; (2) In subjects with abnormal β-amyloid deposition (Aβ+), biomarkers become abnormal in the order predicted by the amyloid cascade hypothesis; (3) Cognitive decline is more closely linked to tau than Aβ deposition; (4) Cerebrovascular risk factors may interact with Aβ to increase white-matter (WM) abnormalities which may accelerate Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression in conjunction with tau abnormalities; (5) Different patterns of atrophy are associated with impairment of memory and executive function and may underlie psychiatric symptoms; (6) Structural, functional, and metabolic network connectivities are disrupted as AD progresses. Models of prion-like spreading of Aβ pathology along WM tracts predict known patterns of cortical Aβ deposition and declines in glucose metabolism; (7) New AD risk and protective gene loci have been identified using biologically informed approaches; (8) Cognitively normal and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects are heterogeneous and include groups typified not only by "classic" AD pathology but also by normal biomarkers, accelerated decline, and suspected non-Alzheimer's pathology; (9) Selection of subjects at risk of imminent decline on the basis of one or more pathologies improves the power of clinical trials; (10) Sensitivity of cognitive outcome measures to early changes in cognition has been improved and surrogate outcome measures using longitudinal structural magnetic resonance imaging may further reduce clinical trial cost and duration; (11) Advances in machine learning techniques such as neural networks have improved diagnostic and prognostic accuracy especially in challenges involving MCI subjects; and (12) Network connectivity measures and genetic variants show promise in multimodal classification and some classifiers using single modalities are rivaling multimodal classifiers.

DISCUSSION

Taken together, these studies fundamentally deepen our understanding of AD progression and its underlying genetic basis, which in turn informs and improves clinical trial design.

Use of High-Frequency In-Home Monitoring Data May Reduce Sample Sizes Needed in Clinical Trials

Background

Trials in Alzheimer’s disease are increasingly focusing on prevention in asymptomatic individuals. This poses a challenge in examining treatment effects since currently available approaches are often unable to detect cognitive and functional changes among asymptomatic individuals. Resultant small effect sizes require large sample sizes using biomarkers or secondary measures for randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Better assessment approaches and outcomes capable of capturing subtle changes during asymptomatic disease stages are needed.

Objective

We aimed to develop a new approach to track changes in functional outcomes by using individual-specific distributions (as opposed to group-norms) of unobtrusive continuously monitored in-home data. Our objective was to compare sample sizes required to achieve sufficient power to detect prevention trial effects in trajectories of outcomes in two scenarios: (1) annually assessed neuropsychological test scores (a conventional approach), and (2) the likelihood of having subject-specific low performance thresholds, both modeled as a function of time.

Methods

One hundred nineteen cognitively intact subjects were enrolled and followed over 3 years in the Intelligent Systems for Assessing Aging Change (ISAAC) study. Using the difference in empirically identified time slopes between those who remained cognitively intact during follow-up (normal control, NC) and those who transitioned to mild cognitive impairment (MCI), we estimated comparative sample sizes required to achieve up to 80% statistical power over a range of effect sizes for detecting reductions in the difference in time slopes between NC and MCI incidence before transition.

Results

Sample size estimates indicated approximately 2000 subjects with a follow-up duration of 4 years would be needed to achieve a 30% effect size when the outcome is an annually assessed memory test score. When the outcome is likelihood of low walking speed defined using the individual-specific distributions of walking speed collected at baseline, 262 subjects are required. Similarly for computer use, 26 subjects are required.

Conclusions

Individual-specific thresholds of low functional performance based on high-frequency in-home monitoring data distinguish trajectories of MCI from NC and could substantially reduce sample sizes needed in dementia prevention RCTs.