Estimating shifts in diversification rates based on higher-level phylogenies

Skyline Fossilized Birth-Death Model is Robust to Violations of Sampling Assumptions in Total-Evidence Dating

Several total-evidence dating studies under the fossilized birth-death (FBD) model have produced very old age estimates, which are not supported by the fossil record. This phenomenon has been termed "deep root attraction (DRA)." For two specific data sets, involving divergence time estimation for the early radiations of ants, bees, and wasps (Hymenoptera) and of placental mammals (Eutheria), it has been shown that the DRA effect can be greatly reduced by accommodating the fact that extant species in these trees have been sampled to maximize diversity, so-called diversified sampling. Unfortunately, current methods to accommodate diversified sampling only consider the extreme case where it is possible to identify a cut-off time such that all splits occurring before this time are represented in the sampled tree but none of the younger splits. In reality, the sampling bias is rarely this extreme and may be difficult to model properly. Similar modeling challenges apply to the sampling of the fossil record. This raises the question of whether it is possible to find dating methods that are more robust to sampling biases. Here, we show that the skyline FBD (SFBD) process, where the diversification and fossil-sampling rates can vary over time in a piecewise fashion, provides age estimates that are more robust to inadequacies in the modeling of the sampling process and less sensitive to DRA effects. In the SFBD model we consider, rates in different time intervals are either considered to be independent and identically distributed or assumed to be autocorrelated following an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Through simulations and reanalyses of Hymenoptera and Eutheria data, we show that both variants of the SFBD model unify age estimates under random and diversified sampling assumptions. The SFBD model can resolve DRA by absorbing the deviations from the sampling assumptions into the inferred dynamics of the diversification process over time. Although this means that the inferred diversification dynamics must be interpreted with caution, taking sampling biases into account, we conclude that the SFBD model represents the most robust approach currently available for addressing DRA in total-evidence dating.

Novel phylogenetic methods are needed for understanding gene function in the era of mega-scale genome sequencing

Ongoing large-scale genome sequencing projects are forecasting a data deluge that will almost certainly overwhelm current analytical capabilities of evolutionary genomics. In contrast to population genomics, there are no standardized methods in evolutionary genomics for extracting evolutionary and functional (e.g. gene-trait association) signal from genomic data. Here, we examine how current practices of multi-species comparative genomics perform in this aspect and point out that many genomic datasets are under-utilized due to the lack of powerful methodologies. As a result, many current analyses emphasize gene families for which some functional data is already available, resulting in a growing gap between functionally well-characterized genes/organisms and the universe of unknowns. This leaves unknown genes on the 'dark side' of genomes, a problem that will not be mitigated by sequencing more and more genomes, unless we develop tools to infer functional hypotheses for unknown genes in a systematic manner. We provide an inventory of recently developed methods capable of predicting gene-gene and gene-trait associations based on comparative data, then argue that realizing the full potential of whole genome datasets requires the integration of phylogenetic comparative methods into genomics, a rich but underutilized toolbox for looking into the past.

Pattern, process, inference and prediction in extinction biology

Extinction is a key feature of the evolutionary history of life, and assessments of extinction risk are essential for the effective protection of biodiversity. The goal in assembling this special issue of Biology Letters was to highlight problems and questions at the research frontier of extinction biology, with an emphasis on recent developments in the methodology of inferring the patterns and processes of extinction from a background of often noisy and sparse data. In selecting topics, we sought to illustrate how extinction is not simply a self-evident phenomenon, but the subject of a dynamic and quantitatively rigorous field of natural science, with practical applications to conservation.

A model-based clustering method to detect infectious disease transmission outbreaks from sequence variation

Clustering infections by genetic similarity is a popular technique for identifying potential outbreaks of infectious disease, in part because sequences are now routinely collected for clinical management of many infections. A diverse number of nonparametric clustering methods have been developed for this purpose. These methods are generally intuitive, rapid to compute, and readily scale with large data sets. However, we have found that nonparametric clustering methods can be biased towards identifying clusters of diagnosis—where individuals are sampled sooner post-infection—rather than the clusters of rapid transmission that are meant to be potential foci for public health efforts. We develop a fundamentally new approach to genetic clustering based on fitting a Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP), which represents the evolution of transmission rates along the tree relating different infections. We evaluated this model-based method alongside five nonparametric clustering methods using both simulated and actual HIV sequence data sets. For simulated clusters of rapid transmission, the MMPP clustering method obtained higher mean sensitivity (85%) and specificity (91%) than the nonparametric methods. When we applied these clustering methods to published sequences from a study of HIV-1 genetic clusters in Seattle, USA, we found that the MMPP method categorized about half (46%) as many individuals to clusters compared to the other methods. Furthermore, the mean internal branch lengths that approximate transmission rates were significantly shorter in clusters extracted using MMPP, but not by other methods. We determined that the computing time for the MMPP method scaled linearly with the size of trees, requiring about 30 seconds for a tree of 1,000 tips and about 20 minutes for 50,000 tips on a single computer. This new approach to genetic clustering has significant implications for the application of pathogen sequence analysis to public health, where it is critical to robustly and accurately identify clusters for the most cost-effective deployment of outbreak management and prevention resources.

Many pathogens evolve so rapidly that they accumulate genetic differences within a host before becoming transmitted to the next host. Consequently, clusters of sampled infections with nearly identical genomes may reveal outbreaks of recent or ongoing transmissions. There is rapidly growing interest in using model-free genetic clustering methods to guide public health responses to epidemics in near real-time, including HIV, Ebola virus and tuberculosis. However, we show that current methods are relatively ineffective at detecting transmission outbreaks; instead, they are predominantly influenced by how infections are sampled from the population. We describe a fundamentally new approach to genetic clustering that is based on modelling changes in transmission rates during the spread of the epidemic. We use simulated and real pathogen sequence data sets to demonstrate that this model-based approach is substantially more effective for detecting transmission outbreaks, and remains fast enough for real-time applications to large sequence databases.