Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example

Field evaluation of a 0.005% fipronil bait, orally administered to Rhombomys opimus, for control of fleas (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) and phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the Central Asian Republic of Kazakhstan

Plague (Yersinia pestis) and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (Leishmania major) are two rodent-associated diseases which are vectored by fleas and phlebotomine sand flies, respectively. In Central Asia, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) serves as the primary reservoir for both diseases in most natural foci. The systemic insecticide fipronil has been previously shown to be highly effective in controlling fleas and sand flies. However, the impact of a fipronil-based rodent bait, on flea and sand fly abundance, has never been reported in Central Asia. A field trial was conducted in southeastern Kazakhstan to evaluate the efficacy of a 0.005% fipronil bait, applied to gerbil burrows for oral uptake, in reducing Xenopsylla spp. flea and Phlebotomus spp. sand fly abundance. All active gerbil burrows within the treated area were presented with ~120 g of 0.005% fipronil grain bait twice during late spring/early summer (June 16, June 21). In total, 120 occupied and 14 visited gerbil colonies were surveyed and treated, and the resulting application rate was minimal (~0.006 mg fipronil/m2). The bait resulted in 100% reduction in Xenopsylla spp. flea abundance at 80-days post-treatment. Gravid sand flies were reduced ~72% and 100% during treatment and at week-3 post-treatment, respectively. However, noticeable sand fly reduction did not occur after week-3 and results suggest environmental factors also influenced abundance significantly. In conclusion, fipronil bait, applied in southeastern Kazakhstan, has the potential to reduce or potentially eliminate Xenopsylla spp. fleas if applied at least every 80-days, but may need to be applied at higher frequency to significantly reduce the oviposition rate of Phlebotomus spp. sand flies. Fipronil-based bait may provide a means of controlling blood-feeding vectors, subsequently reducing disease risk, in Central Asia and other affected regions globally.

Local persistence and extinction of plague in a metapopulation of great gerbil burrows, Kazakhstan

Speculation on how the bacterium Yersinia pestis re-emerges after years of absence in the Prebalkhash region in Kazakhstan has been ongoing for half a century, but the mechanism is still unclear. One of the theories is that plague persists in its reservoir host (the great gerbil) in so-called hotspots, i.e. small regions in which the conditions remain favourable for plague to persist during times where the conditions in the Prebalkhash region as a whole have become unfavourable for plague persistence. In this paper we use a metapopulation model that describes the dynamics of the great gerbil. With this model we study the minimum size of an individual hotspot and the combined size of multiple hotspots in the Prebalkhash region that would be required for Y. pestis to persist through an inter-epizootic period. We show that the combined area of hotspots required for plague persistence is so large that it would be unlikely to have been missed by existing plague surveillance. This suggests that persistence of plague in that region cannot solely be explained by the existence of hotspots, and therefore other hypotheses, such as survival in multiple host species, and persistence in fleas or in the soil should be considered as well.

Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

Background

Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans.

Results

We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years.

Conclusions

Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades.

See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108

Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague

Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model using additional data from the same archives. Throughout the focus, population levels above the threshold were a necessary condition for an epizootic to occur. However, there were large numbers of occasions when an epizootic was not observed even though great gerbils were, and had been, abundant. We examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate was unfavourable, and (vi) a high proportion of gerbils were resistant. Of these, separate thresholds, fleas and climate received some support but accounted for few false positives and can be disregarded as serious omissions from the model. Small sample size and local extinction received strong support and can account for most of the false positives. Host resistance received no support here but should be subject to more direct experimental testing.