Modelling HIV-1 2-LTR dynamics following raltegravir intensification

Cardiac and Renal Comorbidities in Aging People Living With HIV

Contemporary World Health Organization data indicates that ≈39 million people are living with the human immunodeficiency virus. Of these, 24 million have been reported to have successfully accessed combination antiretroviral therapy. In 1996, the World Health Organization endorsed the widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy, transforming human immunodeficiency virus infection from being a life-threatening disease to a chronic illness characterized by multiple comorbidities. The increased access to combination antiretroviral therapy has translated to people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) no longer having a reduced life expectancy. Although aging as a biological process increases exposure to oxidative stress and subsequent systemic inflammation, this effect is likely enhanced in PLWH as they age. This narrative review engages the intricate interplay between human immunodeficiency virus associated chronic inflammation, combination antiretroviral therapy, and cardiac and renal comorbidities development in aging PLWH. We examine the evolving demographic profile of PLWH, emphasizing the increasing prevalence of aging individuals within this population. A central focus of the review discusses the pathophysiological mechanisms that underpin the heightened susceptibility of PLWH to renal and cardiac diseases as they age.

Estimating the contribution of CD4 T cell subset proliferation and differentiation to HIV persistence

Persistence of HIV in people living with HIV (PWH) on suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been linked to physiological mechanisms of CD4+ T cells. Here, in the same 37 male PWH on ART we measure longitudinal kinetics of HIV DNA and cell turnover rates in five CD4 cell subsets: naïve (TN), stem-cell- (TSCM), central- (TCM), transitional- (TTM), and effector-memory (TEM). HIV decreases in TTM and TEM but not in less-differentiated subsets. Cell turnover is ~10 times faster than HIV clearance in memory subsets, implying that cellular proliferation consistently creates HIV DNA. The optimal mathematical model for these integrated data sets posits HIV DNA also passages between CD4 cell subsets via cellular differentiation. Estimates are heterogeneous, but in an average participant's year ~10 (in TN and TSCM) and ~104 (in TCM, TTM, TEM) proviruses are generated by proliferation while ~103 proviruses passage via cell differentiation (per million CD4). In simulations, therapies blocking proliferation and/or enhancing differentiation could reduce HIV DNA by 1-2 logs over 3 years. In summary, HIV exploits cellular proliferation and differentiation to persist during ART but clears faster in more proliferative/differentiated CD4 cell subsets and the same physiological mechanisms sustaining HIV might be temporarily modified to reduce it.

The Many Faces of Immune Activation in HIV-1 Infection: A Multifactorial Interconnection

Chronic immune activation has a significant role in HIV-1 disease pathogenesis and CD4+ T-cell depletion. The causes of chronic inflammation and immune activation are incompletely understood, but they are likely multifactorial in nature, involving both direct and indirect stimuli. Possible explanations include microbial translocation, coinfection, and continued presence of competent replicating virus. In fact, long-term viral suppression treatments are unable to normalize elevated markers of systemic immune activation. Furthermore, high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines increase susceptibility to premature aging of the immune system. The phenomenon of "inflammaging" has begun to be evident in the last decades, as a consequence of increased life expectancy due to the introduction of cART. Quality of life and survival have improved substantially; however, PLWH are predisposed to chronic inflammatory conditions leading to age-associated diseases, such as inflammatory bowel disease, neurocognitive disorders, cardiovascular diseases, metabolic syndrome, bone abnormalities, and non-HIV-associated cancers. Several approaches have been studied in numerous uncontrolled and/or randomized clinical trials with the aim of reducing immune activation/inflammatory status in PLWH, none of which have achieved consistent results.

Modeling HIV-1 Within-Host Dynamics After Passive Infusion of the Broadly Neutralizing Antibody VRC01

VRC01 is a broadly neutralizing antibody that targets the CD4 binding site of HIV-1 gp120. Passive administration of VRC01 in humans has assessed the safety and the effect on plasma viremia of this monoclonal antibody (mAb) in a phase 1 clinical trial. After VRC01 infusion, the plasma viral load in most of the participants was reduced but had particular dynamics not observed during antiretroviral therapy. In this paper, we introduce different mathematical models to explain the observed dynamics and fit them to the plasma viral load data. Based on the fitting results we argue that a model containing reversible Ab binding to virions and clearance of virus-VRC01 complexes by a two-step process that includes (1) saturable capture followed by (2) internalization/degradation by phagocytes, best explains the data. This model predicts that VRC01 may enhance the clearance of Ab-virus complexes, explaining the initial viral decay observed immediately after antibody infusion in some participants. Because Ab-virus complexes are assumed to be unable to infect cells, i.e., contain neutralized virus, the model predicts a longer-term viral decay consistent with that observed in the VRC01 treated participants. By assuming a homogeneous viral population sensitive to VRC01, the model provides good fits to all of the participant data. However, the fits are improved by assuming that there were two populations of virus, one more susceptible to antibody-mediated neutralization than the other.

Switching From a Protease Inhibitor-based Regimen to a Dolutegravir-based Regimen: A Randomized Clinical Trial to Determine the Effect on Peripheral Blood and Ileum Biopsies From Antiretroviral Therapy-suppressed Human Immunodeficiency Virus-infected Individuals

Background

Optimization of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) can impact the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reservoir. We evaluated the effect on the HIV reservoir in peripheral blood and ileum biopsies in patients switching from boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r)–based therapy to dolutegravir (DTG)–based therapy.

Methods

Impact of Integrase-inhibitor DOlutegravir On the viral Reservoir (INDOOR) is a phase 4 open-label clinical trial that randomly included 42 HIV type 1–infected individuals on effective cART: 20 who switched from PI/r-based to DTG-based cART (switch group), and 22 who remained in PI/r-based regimens (control group). We analyzed blood and ileum biopsies to quantify episomal, total, and integrated HIV DNA, cell-associated HIV RNA, residual plasma viremia, T-cell subsets, cell activation, and inflammation markers.

Results

There were no related adverse events or treatment discontinuations due to drug intolerance. The HIV reservoir was consistently larger in ileal than in peripheral CD4⁺ T cells in both groups (P < .01). Residual viremia in plasma decreased in the switch group (P = .03). However, we did not observe significant longitudinal changes in low-level viral replication, total and integrated HIV reservoir, HIV transcription, T-cell maturation subsets, immunoactivation markers, inflammatory soluble proteins, or cellular markers of latently infected cells.

Conclusions

The INDOOR study is the first evaluation of changes in HIV reservoir size in ileum biopsies and in peripheral blood in individuals switched from PI/r- to DTG-based cART. Although this switch was safe and well tolerated, it had no impact on a large array of immunological and inflammatory markers or on HIV reservoir markers in peripheral or in ileal CD4⁺ T cells.

Clinical Trials Registration

EudraCT 2014-004331-39.

An Integrated Spatial Dynamics-Pharmacokinetic Model Explaining Poor Penetration of Anti-retroviral Drugs in Lymph Nodes

Although combined anti-retroviral therapy (cART) suppresses plasma HIV viremia below the limit of detection in a majority of HIV patients, evidence is emerging that the distribution of the anti-retroviral drugs is heterogeneous in tissue. Clinical studies measuring antiretroviral drug concentrations in lymph nodes (LNs) revealed lower concentrations compared to peripheral blood levels suggesting poor drug penetration properties. Our current study is an attempt to understand this poor anti-retroviral drug penetration inside lymph node lobules through integrating known pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) parameters of the anti-retroviral drugs into a spatial model of reaction and transport dynamics within a solid lymph node lobule. Simulated drug penetration values were compared against experimental results whenever available or matched with data that is available for other drugs in a similar class. Our integrated spatial dynamics pharmacokinetic model reproduced the experimentally observed exclusion of antivirals from lymphoid sites. The strongest predictor of drug exclusion from the lymphoid lobule, independent of drug class, was lobule size; large lobules (high inflammation) exhibited high levels of drug exclusion. PK/PD characteristics associated with poor lymphoid penetration include high cellular uptake rates and low intracellular half-lives. To determine whether this exclusion might lead to ongoing replication, target CD4+ T cell, infected CD4+ T cell, free virus, and intracellular IC50 values of anti-retroviral drugs were incorporated into the model. Notably, for median estimates of PK/PD parameters and lobule diameters consistent with low to moderate inflammation, the model predicts no ongoing viral replication, despite substantial exclusion of the drugs from the lymphoid site. Monte-Carlo studies drawn from the prior distributions of the PK/PD parameters predicts increases in site-specific HIV replication in a small fraction of the patient population for lobule diameters greater than 0.2 mm; this fraction increases as the site diameter/ inflammation level increases. The model shows that cART consisting of two nRTIs and one PI is the most likely treatment combination to support formation of a sanctuary site, a finding that is consistent with clinical observations.

Next-Generation Sequencing in a Direct Model of HIV Infection Reveals Important Parallels to and Differences from In Vivo Reservoir Dynamics

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) represents a powerful tool to unravel the genetic make-up of the HIV reservoir, but limited data exist on its use in vitro Moreover, most NGS studies do not separate integrated from unintegrated DNA, even though selection pressures on these two forms should be distinct. We reasoned we could use NGS to compare the infection of resting and activated CD4 T cells in vitro to address how the metabolic state affects reservoir formation and dynamics. To address these questions, we obtained HIV sequences 2, 4, and 8 days after NL4-3 infection of metabolically activated and quiescent CD4 T cells (cultured with 2 ng/ml interleukin-7). We compared the composition of integrated and total HIV DNA by isolating integrated HIV DNA using pulsed-field electrophoresis before performing sequencing. After a single-round infection, the majority of integrated HIV DNA was intact in both resting and activated T cells. The decay of integrated intact proviruses was rapid and similar in both quiescent and activated T cells. Defective forms accumulated relative to intact ones analogously to what is observed in vivo Massively deleted viral sequences formed more frequently in resting cells, likely due to lower deoxynucleoside triphosphate (dNTP) levels and the presence of multiple restriction factors. To our surprise, the majority of these deleted sequences did not integrate into the human genome. The use of NGS to study reservoir dynamics in vitro provides a model that recapitulates important aspects of reservoir dynamics. Moreover, separating integrated from unintegrated HIV DNA is important in some clinical settings to properly study selection pressures.IMPORTANCE The major implication of our work is that the decay of intact proviruses in vitro is extremely rapid, perhaps as a result of enhanced expression. Gaining a better understanding of why intact proviruses decay faster in vitro might help the field identify strategies to purge the reservoir in vivo When used wisely, in vitro models are a powerful tool to study the selective pressures shaping the viral landscape. Our finding that massively deleted sequences rarely succeed in integrating has several ramifications. It demonstrates that the total HIV DNA can differ substantially in character from the integrated HIV DNA under certain circumstances. The presence of unintegrated HIV DNA has the potential to obscure selection pressures and confound the interpretation of clinical studies, especially in the case of trials involving treatment interruptions.

Persistent HIV-1 Viremia on Antiretroviral Therapy: Measurement and Mechanisms

HIV-1 viremia persists at low-levels despite clinically effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here we review new methods to quantify and characterize persistent viremia at the single genome level, and discuss the mechanisms of persistence including clonal expansion of infected cells and tissue origins of viremia. A deeper understanding of how viremia persists on ART is critically important to the design of therapies to eliminate viremia and achieve a functional cure for HIV-1.

HIV 2-LTR experiment design optimization

Clinical trials are necessary in order to develop treatments for diseases; however, they can often be costly, time consuming, and demanding to the patients. This paper summarizes several common methods used for optimal design that can be used to address these issues. In addition, we introduce a novel method for optimizing experiment designs applied to HIV 2-LTR clinical trials. Our method employs Bayesian techniques to optimize the experiment outcome by maximizing the Expected Kullback-Leibler Divergence (EKLD) between the a priori knowledge of system parameters before the experiment and the a posteriori knowledge of the system parameters after the experiment. We show that our method is robust and performs equally well if not better than traditional optimal experiment design techniques.

Increased inflammation in sanctuary sites may explain viral blips in HIV infection

Combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) suppress HIV-1 viral replication, such that viral load in plasma remains below the limit of detection in standard assays. However, intermittent episodes of transient viremia (blips) occur in a set of HIV-patients. Given that follicular hyperplasia occurs during lymphoid inflammation as a normal response to infection, it is hypothesised that when the diameter of the lymph node follicle (LNF) increases and crosses a critical size, a viral blip occurs due to cryptic viremia. To study this hypothesis, a theoretical analysis of a mathematical model is performed to find the conditions for virus suppression in all compartments and different scenarios of LNF size changes are simulated. According to the analysis, blips with duration of around 30 days arise when the diameter rise rate is between 0.02 and 0.03 days(-1). Moreover, the final diameter of the site is directly related to the steady states of the virus load after the occurrence of a blip. When the value of R0 is around 2.1, to have a steady-state below the limit of detection after the viral blip, the maximum final diameters should be greater than 0.7 mm so that there is a relative loss of connection between compartments.

Modeling HIV persistence and cure studies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To provide a summary of the contributions of mathematical modeling to understanding of HIV persistence during antiretroviral therapy.

RECENT FINDINGS

Although HIV persistence during therapy could be caused by continual viral replication or slow-decaying latent infection, most evidence points toward the latter mechanism. The latent reservoir is maintained by a balance of cell death, proliferation, and reactivation, and new methods to estimate the relative contributions of these rates use a wide range of experimental data. This has led to new quantitative predictions about the potential benefit of therapies such as latency-reversing agents or antiproliferative drugs.

SUMMARY

Results of these mathematical modeling studies can be used to design and interpret future trials of new therapies targeting HIV persistence.

Dynamics of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Two-Long-Terminal-Repeat Circles in the Presence and Absence of CD8+ Cells

CD8⁺ cells play a key role in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection, but their specific mechanism(s) of action in controlling the virus is unclear. Two-long-terminal-repeat (2-LTR) circles are extrachromosomal products generated upon failed integration of HIV/SIV. To understand the specific effects of CD8⁺ cells on infected cells, we analyzed the dynamics of 2-LTR circles in SIVmac251-infected rhesus macaques (RMs) treated with an integrase inhibitor (INT). Twenty RMs underwent CD8⁺ cell depletion and received raltegravir (RAL) monotherapy or a combination of both. Blood, lymph nodes (LNs), and gut biopsy specimens were routinely sampled. Plasma viral loads (pVLs) and 2-LTR circles from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and LN lymphocytes were measured with quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR). In the CD8 depletion group, an ∼1-log increase in pVLs and a slow increase in PBMC 2-LTRs occurred following depletion. In the INT group, a strong decline in pVLs upon treatment initiation and no change in 2-LTR levels were observed. In the INT and CD8⁺ cell depletion group, an increase in pVLs following CD8 depletion similar to that in the CD8 depletion group was observed, with a modest decline following INT initiation, and 2-LTR circles significantly increased in PBMCs and LNs. Analyzing the 2-LTR data across all treatment groups with a mathematical model indicates that the data best support an effect of CD8⁺ cells in killing cells prior to viral integration. Sensitivity analyses of these results confirm that effect but also allow for additional effects, which the data do not discriminate well. Overall, we show that INT does not significantly increase the levels of 2-LTR circles. However, CD8⁺ cell depletion increases the 2-LTR levels, which are enhanced in the presence of an INT.IMPORTANCE CD8⁺ T cells play an essential role in controlling HIV and SIV infection, but the specific mechanisms involved remain poorly understood. Due to failed viral infection, HIV and SIV can form 2-LTR extrachromosomal circles that can be quantified. We present novel data on the dynamics of these 2-LTR forms in a SIV-infected macaque model under three different treatment conditions: depletion of CD8⁺ cells, administration of the integrase inhibitor in a monotherapy, which favors the formation of 2-LTR circles, and a combination of the two treatments. We used a new mathematical model to help interpret the data, and the results suggest that CD8⁺ cells exert a killing effect on infected cells prior to virus integration. These results provide new insights into the mechanisms of action of CD8⁺ cells in SIV infection. Confirmation of our results would be an important step in understanding immune control of HIV.

Episomal HIV-1 DNA and its relationship to other markers of HIV-1 persistence

Reverse transcription of HIV-1 results in the generation of a linear cDNA that serves as the precursor to the integrated provirus. Other classes of extrachromosomal viral cDNA molecules can be found in acutely infected cells including the 1-LTR and 2-LTR circles of viral DNA, also referred as episomal HIV-1 DNA. Circulating CD4⁺ T-cells of treatment-naïve individuals contain significant levels of unintegrated forms of HIV-1 DNA. However, the importance of episomal HIV-1 DNA in the study of viral persistence during antiviral therapy (ART) is debatable. 2-LTR circles are preferentially observed in the effector memory CD4⁺ T cell subset of long-term treated subjects. Treatment intensification of standard regimens has been used to determine if more potent ART can impact viral reservoir activity. Adding a potent antiretroviral drug to a stable triple-drug regimen has no measurable impact on plasma HIV-1 RNA levels, suggesting that ongoing cycles of HIV-1 replication are not a major mechanism driving persistent plasma viremia during triple-drug ART. However, in randomized clinical trials of HIV-1-infected adults on apparently effective ART, the addition of an integrase inhibitor (raltegravir) to stable regimens resulted in a transient increase in 2-LTR circles in some patients, suggesting a pre-intensification steady-state in which the processes of virion generation and de novo infection were occurring. Mathematical modeling of 2-LTR production during integrase inhibitor intensification suggests the coexistence, at different levels, of ongoing de novo infection and de novo replication mechanisms, specifically in inflamed lymphoid drug sanctuaries. Most reports looking into potential changes in 2-LTR circles in interventional clinical studies have simultaneously assessed other potential surrogate markers of viral persistence. Transient increases in 2-LTR circles have been correlated to decreases in CD8⁺ T-cell activation, transient CD45RA⁻CD4⁺ T-cell redistribution, and decreases in the hypercoagulation biomarker D-dimer in ART-intensified individuals. It is difficult, however, to establish a systematic association because the level of correlation with different types of markers differs significantly among studies. In conclusion, despite suppressive ART, a steady-state of de novo infection may persist in some infected individuals and that this may drive immune activation and inflammation changes reflecting residual viral reservoir activity during otherwise apparently suppressive ART.

Experiment Design for Early Molecular Events in HIV Infection

The recent introduction of integrase inhibitors to the HIV antiviral repertoire permits us to create in vitro experiments that reliably terminate HIV infection at the point of chromosomal integration. This allows us to isolate the dynamics of a single round of infection, without needing to account for the influence of multiple overlapping rounds of infection. By measuring the various nucleic acid concentrations in a population of infected target cells at multiple time points, we can infer the rates of these molecular events with great accuracy, which allows us to compare the rates between target cells with different functional phenotypes. This information will help in understanding the behavior of the various populations of reservoir cells such as active and quiescent T-cells which maintain HIV infection in treated patients. In this paper, we introduce a family of models of the early molecular events in HIV infection, with either linear dynamics or age-structured delays at each step. We introduce an experimental design metric based on the delta AIC (Akaike Information Criteria) between a model fit for simulated data from a matching model vs a mismatched model, which allows us to determine a candidate experiment design's ability to discriminate between models. Using parameters values drawn from experimentally-derived priors corrupted with appropriate measurement noise, we confirm that a proposed sampling schedule at different time points allows us to consistently discriminate between candidate models.

Residual Immune Activation and Latency

The introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in the 1990s has dramatically changed the course of HIV infection, decreasing the risk for both AIDS- and non-AIDS-related events. Cancers, cardiovascular disease (CVD), liver and kidney disease, neurological disorders and frailty have become of great importance lately in the clinical management as they represent the principal cause of death in people living with HIV who receive cART (Kirk et al. in Clin Infect Dis 45(1):103-10, 2007; Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy Study et al. N Engl J Med 355(22):2283-2296, 2006; Ances et al. J Infect Dis 201(3):336-340, 2010; Desquilbet et al. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 62(11):1279-1286, 2007; Lifson et al. HIV Clin Trials 9(3):177-185, 2008). Despite the undeniable achievements of cART, we are now faced with its limitations: a considerable proportion of individuals, referred as to immunological non-responders, fails to reconstitute the immune system despite optimal treatment and viral suppression (Kelley et al. Clin Infect Dis 48(6):787-794, 2009; Robbins et al. Clin Infect Dis 48(3):350-361, 2009) and remains at high risk for opportunistic infections and non-AIDS-related events (Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy Study et al. N Engl J Med 355(22):2283-2296, 2006). Moreover, the generalized state of immune activation and inflammation, linked to serious non-AIDS events, persists despite successful HIV suppression with cART. Finally, the current strategies have so far failed to eradicate the virus, and inflammation appears a driving force in viral persistence. In the light of all this, it is of fundamental importance to investigate the pathophysiological processes that link incomplete immune recovery, immune activation and HIV persistence to design targeted therapies that could impact on the three.

Implications of Measurement Assay Type in Design of HIV Experiments

Time series measurements of circular viral episome (2-LTR) concentrations enable indirect quantification of persistent low-level Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) replication in patients on Integrase-Inhibitor intensified Combined Antiretroviral Therapy (cART). In order to determine the magnitude of these low level infection events, blood has to be drawn from a patients at a frequency and volume that is strictly regulated by the Institutional Review Board (IRB). Once the blood is drawn, the 2-LTR concentration is determined by quantifying the amount of HIV DNA present in the sample via a PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) assay. Real time quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR) is a widely used method of performing PCR; however, a newer droplet digital Polymerase Chain Reaction (ddPCR) method has been shown to provide more accurate quantification of DNA. Using a validated model of HIV viral replication, this paper demonstrates the importance of considering DNA quantification assay type when optimizing experiment design conditions. Experiments are optimized using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to locate a family of suboptimal sample schedules which yield the highest fitness. Fitness is defined as the expected information gained in the experiment, measured by the Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) between the prior and posterior distributions of the model parameters. We compare the information content of the optimized schedules to uniform schedules as well as two clinical schedules implemented by researchers at UCSF and the University of Melbourne. This work shows that there is a significantly greater gain information in experiments using a ddPCR assay vs. a qPCR assay and that certain experiment design considerations should be taken when using either assay.

Persistent HIV-1 replication during antiretroviral therapy

Purpose of review

The present review will highlight some of the recent findings regarding the capacity of HIV-1 to replicate during antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Recent findings

Although ART is highly effective at inhibiting HIV replication, it is not curative. Several mechanisms contribute to HIV persistence during ART, including HIV latency, immune dysfunction, and perhaps persistent low-level spread of the virus to uninfected cells (replication). The success in curing HIV will depend on efficiently targeting these three aspects. The degree to which HIV replicates during ART remains controversial. Most studies have failed to find any evidence of HIV evolution in blood, even with samples collected over many years, although a recent very intensive study of three individuals suggested that the virus population does shift, at least during the first few months of therapy. Stronger but still not definitive evidence for replication comes from a series of studies in which standard regimens were intensified with an integration inhibitor, resulting in changes in episomal DNA (blood) and cell-associated RNA (tissue). Limited drug penetration within tissues and the presence of immune sanctuaries have been argued as potential mechanisms allowing HIV to spread during ART. Mathematical models suggest that HIV replication and evolution is possible even without the selection of fully drug-resistant variants. As persistent HIV replication could have clinical consequences and might limit the efficacy of curative interventions, determining if HIV replicates during ART and why, should remain a key focus of the HIV research community.

Summary

Residual viral replication likely persists in lymphoid tissues, at least in a subset of individuals. Abnormal levels of immune activation might contribute to sustain virus replication.

Mathematical Models of HIV Latency

Viral latency is a major barrier to curing HIV infection with antiretroviral therapy, and consequently, for eliminating the disease globally. The establishment, maintenance, and potential clearance of latent infection are complex dynamic processes and can be best understood and described with the help of mathematical models. Here we review the use of viral dynamics models for HIV, with a focus on applications to the latent reservoir. Such models have been used to explain the multiphasic decay of viral load during antiretroviral therapy, the early seeding of the latent reservoir during acute infection and the limited inflow during treatment, the dynamics of viral blips, and the phenomenon of posttreatment control. In addition, mathematical models have been used to predict the efficacy of potential HIV cure strategies, such as latency-reversing agents, early treatment initiation, or gene therapies, and to provide guidance for designing trials of these novel interventions.

Influence of raltegravir intensification on viral load and 2-LTR dynamics in HIV patients on suppressive antiretroviral therapy

Antiretroviral therapy can suppress HIV-1 plasma viral load to below the detection limit but cannot eradicate the virus. Whether residual ongoing viral replication persists during suppressive therapy remains unclear. A few clinical studies showed that treatment intensification with an additional drug led to a lower viral load or an increase in 2-LTR (long terminal repeat), a marker for ongoing viral replication. However, some other studies found no change in the viral load and 2-LTR. In this paper, we developed multi-stage models to evaluate the influence of treatment intensification with the integrase inhibitor raltegravir on viral load and 2-LTR dynamics in HIV patients under suppressive therapy. We analyzed one model and obtained the local and global stability of the steady states. The model and its variation predict that raltegravir intensification induces a very minor decrease in the viral load and a minor increase in 2-LTR. We also compared modeling prediction with the 2-LTR data in a raltegravir intensification study. To achieve the 2-LTR increase observed in some patients, the level of viral replication needs to be substantially high, which is inconsistent with the sustained viral suppression in patients during treatment intensification. These modeling results, together with the theoretical estimate of the upper bound of the 2-LTR increase, suggest that treatment intensification with raltegravir has a minor effect on the plasma viremia and 2-LTR in patients under suppressive therapy. Other treatment strategies have to be developed for the cure or functional control of the infection.

Order preservation of expected information content using Unscented Transform approximation of multivariate prior distributions in HIV 2-LTR experiment design

Numerical computation of the expected information content of a prospective experimental design is computationally expensive, requiring calculating the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the posterior distribution from the prior for simulated data from a large sample of points from the prior distribution. In this work, we investigate whether the Unscented Transform (UT) of the prior distribution can provide an adequate estimate of the expected information content in the context of experiment design for a previously validated HIV-1 2-LTR model. Three different schedules with evenly distributed time points have been used to generate the experimental data along with the incorporation of qPCR noise for the study. The UT shows promise in estimating information content by preserving the optimal ordering of 2-LTR sample collection schedules, when compared to completely stochastic sampling from the underlying multivariate distributions.

Prospective HIV Clinical Trial Comparison by Expected Kullback-Leibler Divergence

The sample frequency and volume of blood that can be drawn from a single patient is meticulously restricted under the human subject protection protocols established by an institutional review board (IRB). Consequently, the amount of samples that can be taken during a particular experiment is limited. In order to ensure an effective experiment design, considerations must be taken choosing when to take patient samples. A validated model of HIV-1 viral replication and 2-LTR production is exploited to find sub-optimal sampling schedules that maximize information content of the experiment outcome. This is done through a Forward Stepwise Regression (FSR) process with Kullback Liebler Divergence (KLD) as a selection criterion. Suboptimal schedules are found for an experiment taking four sample points over a possible span of 20 weeks. All schedules found with the FSR process contain significantly more information than both a uniform schedule and a schedule used in a previous experiment with 4 sample points. This work demonstrates the advantages of using KLD as a tool in the experiment design process to increase information content.

Real-Time Predictions of Reservoir Size and Rebound Time during Antiretroviral Therapy Interruption Trials for HIV

Monitoring the efficacy of novel reservoir-reducing treatments for HIV is challenging. The limited ability to sample and quantify latent infection means that supervised antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruption studies are generally required. Here we introduce a set of mathematical and statistical modeling tools to aid in the design and interpretation of ART-interruption trials. We show how the likely size of the remaining reservoir can be updated in real-time as patients continue off treatment, by combining the output of laboratory assays with insights from models of reservoir dynamics and rebound. We design an optimal schedule for viral load sampling during interruption, whereby the frequency of follow-up can be decreased as patients continue off ART without rebound. While this scheme can minimize costs when the chance of rebound between visits is low, we find that the reservoir will be almost completely reseeded before rebound is detected unless sampling occurs at least every two weeks and the most sensitive viral load assays are used. We use simulated data to predict the clinical trial size needed to estimate treatment effects in the face of highly variable patient outcomes and imperfect reservoir assays. Our findings suggest that large numbers of patients-between 40 and 150-will be necessary to reliably estimate the reservoir-reducing potential of a new therapy and to compare this across interventions. As an example, we apply these methods to the two "Boston patients", recipients of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplants who experienced large reductions in latent infection and underwent ART-interruption. We argue that the timing of viral rebound was not particularly surprising given the information available before treatment cessation. Additionally, we show how other clinical data can be used to estimate the relative contribution that remaining HIV+ cells in the recipient versus newly infected cells from the donor made to the residual reservoir that eventually caused rebound. Together, these tools will aid HIV researchers in the evaluating new potentially-curative strategies that target the latent reservoir.

Residual Viremia in Treated HIV+ Individuals

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. However, some residual virus remains, below the level of detection, in HIV-infected patients on ART. The source of this viremia is an area of debate: does it derive primarily from activation of infected cells in the latent reservoir, or from ongoing viral replication? Observations seem to be contradictory: there is evidence of short term evolution, implying that there must be ongoing viral replication, and viral strains should thus evolve. However, phylogenetic analyses, and rare emergent drug resistance, suggest no long-term viral evolution, implying that virus derived from activated latent cells must dominate. We use simple deterministic and stochastic models to gain insight into residual viremia dynamics in HIV-infected patients. Our modeling relies on two underlying assumptions for patients on suppressive ART: that latent cell activation drives viral dynamics and that the reproductive ratio of treated infection is less than 1. Nonetheless, the contribution of viral replication to residual viremia in patients on ART may be non-negligible. However, even if the portion of viremia attributable to viral replication is significant, our model predicts (1) that latent reservoir re-seeding remains negligible, and (2) some short-term viral evolution is permitted, but long-term evolution can still be limited: stochastic analysis of our model shows that de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia and, with relatively few parameters, recapitulates HIV viral dynamics observed in patients on suppressive therapy.

In HIV⁺ individuals, antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV viral loads to below levels detectable by routine tests. However, more sensitive tests can detect some residual viremia. The source of this virus is a matter of debate: does it derive from ongoing viral replication, or from viral production following activation of latently infected cells? Experimental observations support both sides of the argument: in patients on therapy, HIV shows no long-term evolution, and emergence of drug-resistant mutants is rare, implying no ongoing viral replication, but there remains short-term evolution, implying the opposite. To reconcile these observations, we propose a mathematical model of latently and productively infected cells and virus. Using our models we predict that, in patients on suppressive ART, the contribution of viral replication to residual virus, while small, yields short term-evolution. But even if the contribution is large, for example if adherence to therapy is poor, long-term evolution can still be limited, and de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia.

Contribution of HIV-1 genomes that do not integrate to the basic reproductive ratio of the virus

Recent experimental data indicate that HIV-1 DNA that fails to integrate (from now on called uDNA) can by itself successfully produce infectious offspring virions in resting T cells that become activated after infection. This scenario is likely important at the initial stages of the infection. We use mathematical models to calculate the relative contribution of unintegrated and integrated viral DNA to the basic reproductive ratio of the virus, R0, and the models are parameterized with preliminary data. This is done in the context of both free virus spread and transmission of the virus through virological synapses. For free virus transmission, we find that under preliminary parameter estimates, uDNA might contribute about 20% to the total R0. This requires that a single copy of uDNA can successfully replicate. If the presence of more than one uDNA copy is required for replication, uDNA does not contribute to R0. For synaptic transmission, uDNA can contribute to R0 regardless of the number of uDNA copies required for replication. The larger the number of viruses that are successfully transmitted per synapse, however, the lower the contribution of uDNA to R0 because this increases the chances that at least one virus integrates. Using available parameter values, uDNA can maximally contribute 20% to R0 in this case. We argue that the contribution of uDNA to virus reproduction might also be important for continued low level replication of HIV-1 in the presence of integrase inhibitor therapy. Assuming a 20% contribution of uDNA to the overall R0, our calculations suggest that R0=1.6 in the absence of virus integration. While these are rough estimates based on preliminary data that are currently available, this analysis provides a framework for future experimental work which should directly measure key parameters.

Failure of combined antiretroviral therapy intensification with maraviroc and raltegravir in chronically HIV-1 infected patients to reduce the viral reservoir: the IntensHIV randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Ongoing HIV-1 replication in lymphoid cells is one explanation of the persistence of HIV-1 reservoirs despite highly active antiretroviral therapy (cART). We tested the potential of cART intensification by Maraviroc plus Raltegravir to decrease proviral HIV-1 DNA levels in lymphoid cells during a randomized trial.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We randomly assigned for 48 weeks 22 patients to continue their current first line regimen of Truvada® plus Kaletra® or intensify it with Maraviroc and Raltegravir. The primary objective was to obtain a 50% decrease in proviral HIV-1 DNA levels in lymphoid cells with intensification. Blood samples were drawn at W-2, W0, W2, W4, W12, W24 and W48. Plasma viremia, cellular proviral DNA and cellular RNA, 2-LTR circles and lymphocytes subsets were assayed using validated methods. Patients in the intensified group underwent a gut biopsy at baseline and W48 to measure proviral DNA levels. Statistical analysis used parametric and non-parametric tests.

RESULTS

Ten patients in each arm completed the trial. The 2 populations were comparable at baseline. No change in the reservoir size was observed in the intensified arm compared to the control arm measured in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). No change in the reservoir size was observed in gut proviral DNA in the intensified arm. In this group, no increase in 2-LTR circles was observed as early as 2 weeks after intensification and no change was found in residual plasma RNA levels measured by the single copy assay. However, a decrease in CD8(+) T cells activation was observed at 24 and 48 weeks, as well as in PBMCs HIV-1 RNA levels.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that the intensification of a Protease Inhibitor regimen with Maraviroc and Raltegravir does not impact the blood proviral DNA reservoir of HIV but can decrease the cell-associated HIV RNA, the CD8 activation and has a possible impact on rectal proviral HIV DNA in some patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier number NCT00935480.

Predicting the outcomes of treatment to eradicate the latent reservoir for HIV-1

Massive research efforts are now underway to develop a cure for HIV infection, allowing patients to discontinue lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). New latency-reversing agents (LRAs) may be able to purge the persistent reservoir of latent virus in resting memory CD4(+) T cells, but the degree of reservoir reduction needed for cure remains unknown. Here we use a stochastic model of infection dynamics to estimate the efficacy of LRA needed to prevent viral rebound after ART interruption. We incorporate clinical data to estimate population-level parameter distributions and outcomes. Our findings suggest that ∼2,000-fold reductions are required to permit a majority of patients to interrupt ART for 1 y without rebound and that rebound may occur suddenly after multiple years. Greater than 10,000-fold reductions may be required to prevent rebound altogether. Our results predict large variation in rebound times following LRA therapy, which will complicate clinical management. This model provides benchmarks for moving LRAs from the laboratory to the clinic and can aid in the design and interpretation of clinical trials. These results also apply to other interventions to reduce the latent reservoir and can explain the observed return of viremia after months of apparent cure in recent bone marrow transplant recipients and an immediately-treated neonate.

Intensification of a raltegravir-based regimen with maraviroc in early HIV-1 infection

BACKGROUND

Latent HIV-1-infected cells generated early in the infection are responsible for viral persistence, and we hypothesized that addition of maraviroc to triple therapy in patients recently infected with HIV-1 could accelerate decay of the viral reservoir.

METHODS

Patients recently infected (<24 weeks) by chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5)-using HIV-1 were randomized to a raltegravir + tenofovir/emtricitabine regimen (control arm, n = 15) or the same regimen intensified with maraviroc (+MVC arm, n = 15). Plasma viral load, cell-associated HIV-1 DNA (total, integrated, and episomal), and activation/inflammation markers were measured longitudinally.

RESULTS

Plasma viral load decayed in both groups, reaching similar residual levels at week 48. Total cell-associated HIV-1 DNA also decreased in both groups during the first month, although subsequently at a slightly faster rate in the +MVC arm. The transient increase in two long terminal repeat (2-LTR) circles observed in both groups early after initiation of treatment decreased earlier in MVC-treated individuals. Early (week 12) increase of CD4 T-cell counts was higher in the +MVC arm. Conversely, CD8 T-cell counts and CD4 T-cell activation decreased slower in the +MVC arm. Absolute CD4 T-cell and CD8 T-cell counts, immune activation, CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio, and soluble inflammation markers were similar in both arms at the end of the study.

CONCLUSION

Addition of maraviroc in early integrase inhibitor-based treatment of HIV-1 infection results in faster reduction of 2-LTR newly infected cells and recovery of CD4 T-cell counts, and a modest reduction in total reservoir size after 48 weeks of treatment. Paradoxically, CCR5 blockade also induced a slower decrease in plasma viremia and immune activation.

Spatial modeling of HIV cryptic viremia and 2-LTR formation during raltegravir intensification

Combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) can suppress plasma HIV below the limit of detection in normal assays. Recently reported results suggest that viral replication may continue in some patients, despite undetectable levels in the blood. It has been suggested that the appearance of the circularized episomal HIV DNA artifact 2-LTR following treatment intensification with the integrase inhibitor raltegravir is a marker of ongoing viral replication. Other work has suggested that lymphoid organs may be a site of reduced antiviral penetration and increased viral production. In this study we model the hypothesis that this ongoing replication occurs in lymphoid follicle sanctuary sites and investigate the patterns of 2-LTR formation expected after raltegravir application. Experimental data is used to estimate the reaction and diffusion parameters in the model, and Monte-Carlo simulations are used to explore model behavior subject to variation in these rates. The results suggest that conditions for the formation of an observed transient peak in 2-LTR formation following raltegravir intensification include a sanctuary site diameter larger than 0.2mm, a viral basic reproductive ratio within the site larger than 1, and a total volume of active sanctuary sites above 20mL. Significant levels of uncontrolled replication can occur in the sanctuary sites without measurable changes in the plasma viral load. By contrast, subcritical replication (where the basic reproductive ratio of the virus is less than 1 in all sites) always results in monotonic increases of measured 2-LTR following raltegravir intensification, occurring at levels below the limit of detection.