The diminishing role of hubs in dynamical processes on complex networks

Module control of network analysis in psychopathology

The network approach to characterizing psychopathology departs from traditional latent categorical and dimensional approaches. Causal interplay among symptoms contributed to dynamic psychopathology system. Therefore, analyzing the symptom clusters is critical for understanding mental disorders. Furthermore, despite extensive research studying the topological features of symptom networks, the control relationships between symptoms remain largely unclear. Here, we present a novel systematizing concept, module control, to analyze the control principle of the symptom network at a module level. We introduce Module Control Network (MCN) to identify key modules that regulate the network's behavior. By applying our approach to a multivariate psychological dataset, we discover that non-emotional modules, such as sleep-related and stress-related modules, are the primary controlling modules in the symptom network. Our findings indicate that module control can expose central symptom cluster governing psychopathology network, offering novel insights into the underlying mechanisms of mental disorders and individualized approach to psychological interventions.

Transformation starts at the periphery of networks where pushback is less

Complex systems ranging from societies to ecological communities and power grids may be viewed as networks of connected elements. Such systems can go through critical transitions driven by an avalanche of contagious change. Here we ask, where in a complex network such a systemic shift is most likely to start. Intuitively, a central node seems the most likely source of such change. Indeed, topological studies suggest that central nodes can be the Achilles heel for attacks. We argue that the opposite is true for the class of networks in which all nodes tend to follow the state of their neighbors, a category we call two-way pull networks. In this case, a well-connected central node is an unlikely starting point of a systemic shift due to the buffering effect of connected neighbors. As a result, change is most likely to cascade through the network if it spreads first among relatively poorly connected nodes in the periphery. The probability of such initial spread is highest when the perturbation starts from intermediately connected nodes at the periphery, or more specifically, nodes with intermediate degree and relatively low closeness centrality. Our finding is consistent with empirical observations on social innovation, and may be relevant to topics as different as the sources of originality of art, collapse of financial and ecological networks and the onset of psychiatric disorders.

eHealth tools use and mental health: a cross-sectional network analysis in a representative sample

eHealth tools usage is vital for health care systems and increased significantly after the COVID-19 pandemic, which aggravated mental health issues. This cross-sectional study explored whether sociodemographic characteristics and mental health indices (stress and symptoms of anxiety and depression) were linked to the behavioral intention to use eHealth tools and eHealth tools usage in a representative sample from Poland using a network approach. Measurements were conducted in March 2023 among 1000 participants with a mean age of 42.98 (18-87) years, with 51.50% women. The measures included the behavioral intention to use eHealth tools (BI) based on the UTUAT2; eHealth tool use frequency (use behavior) including ePrescription, eSick leave, eReferral, electronic medical documentation (EMD), Internet Patient Account (IKP), telephone consultation, video consultation, mobile health applications, and private and public health care use; and the PSS-4, GAD-2, and PHQ-2. Furthermore, sociodemographic factors (sex, age, children, relationship status, education, and employment) were included in the research model. Network analysis revealed that mental health indices were weakly related to eHealth tools use. Higher stress was positively linked with mobile health application use but negatively linked to video consultation use. Use of various eHealth tools was intercorrelated. Sociodemographic factors were differentially related to the use of the eight specific eHealth tools. Although mental health indices did not have strong associations in the eHealth tools use network, attention should be given to anxiety levels as the factor with the high expected influence.

A network approach can improve eating disorder conceptualization and treatment

Eating disorders are severe mental illnesses with the second highest mortality rate of all psychiatric illnesses. Eating disorders are exceedingly deadly because of their complexity. Specifically, eating disorders are highly comorbid with other psychiatric illnesses (up to 95% of individuals with an eating disorder have at least one additional psychiatric illness), have extremely heterogeneous presentations, and individuals often migrate from one specific eating disorder diagnosis to another. In this Perspective, we propose that understanding eating disorder comorbidity and heterogeneity via a network theory approach offers substantial benefits for both conceptualization and treatment. Such a conceptualization, strongly based on theory, can identify specific pathways that maintain psychiatric comorbidity, how diagnoses vary across individuals, and how specific symptoms and comorbidities maintain illness for one individual, thereby paving the way for personalized treatment.

Advancing urban mental health research: from complexity science to actionable targets for intervention

Urbanisation and common mental disorders (CMDs; ie, depressive, anxiety, and substance use disorders) are increasing worldwide. In this Review, we discuss how urbanicity and risk of CMDs relate to each other and call for a complexity science approach to advance understanding of this interrelationship. We did an ecological analysis using data on urbanicity and CMD burden in 191 countries. We found a positive, non-linear relationship with a higher CMD prevalence in more urbanised countries, particularly for anxiety disorders. We also did a review of meta-analytic studies on the association between urban factors and CMD risk. We identified factors relating to the ambient, physical, and social urban environment and showed differences per diagnosis of CMDs. We argue that factors in the urban environment are likely to operate as a complex system and interact with each other and with individual city inhabitants (including their psychological and neurobiological characteristics) to shape mental health in an urban context. These interactions operate on various timescales and show feedback loop mechanisms, rendering system behaviour characterised by non-linearity that is hard to predict over time. We present a conceptual framework for future urban mental health research that uses a complexity science approach. We conclude by discussing how complexity science methodology (eg, network analyses, system-dynamic modelling, and agent-based modelling) could enable identification of actionable targets for treatment and policy, aimed at decreasing CMD burdens in an urban context.

Evaluating the performance of multivariate indicators of resilience loss

Various complex systems, such as the climate, ecosystems, and physical and mental health can show large shifts in response to small changes in their environment. These 'tipping points' are notoriously hard to predict based on trends. However, in the past 20 years several indicators pointing to a loss of resilience have been developed. These indicators use fluctuations in time series to detect critical slowing down preceding a tipping point. Most of the existing indicators are based on models of one-dimensional systems. However, complex systems generally consist of multiple interacting entities. Moreover, because of technological developments and wearables, multivariate time series are becoming increasingly available in different fields of science. In order to apply the framework of resilience indicators to multivariate time series, various extensions have been proposed. Not all multivariate indicators have been tested for the same types of systems and therefore a systematic comparison between the methods is lacking. Here, we evaluate the performance of the different multivariate indicators of resilience loss in different scenarios. We show that there is not one method outperforming the others. Instead, which method is best to use depends on the type of scenario the system is subject to. We propose a set of guidelines to help future users choose which multivariate indicator of resilience is best to use for their particular system.

Optimal Microbiome Networks: Macroecology and Criticality

The human microbiome is an extremely complex ecosystem considering the number of bacterial species, their interactions, and its variability over space and time. Here, we untangle the complexity of the human microbiome for the Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) that is the most prevalent functional gastrointestinal disorder in human populations. Based on a novel information theoretic network inference model, we detected potential species interaction networks that are functionally and structurally different for healthy and unhealthy individuals. Healthy networks are characterized by a neutral symmetrical pattern of species interactions and scale-free topology versus random unhealthy networks. We detected an inverse scaling relationship between species total outgoing information flow, meaningful of node interactivity, and relative species abundance (RSA). The top ten interacting species are also the least relatively abundant for the healthy microbiome and the most detrimental. These findings support the idea about the diminishing role of network hubs and how these should be defined considering the total outgoing information flow rather than the node degree. Macroecologically, the healthy microbiome is characterized by the highest Pareto total species diversity growth rate, the lowest species turnover, and the smallest variability of RSA for all species. This result challenges current views that posit a universal association between healthy states and the highest absolute species diversity in ecosystems. Additionally, we show how the transitory microbiome is unstable and microbiome criticality is not necessarily at the phase transition between healthy and unhealthy states. We stress the importance of considering portfolios of interacting pairs versus single node dynamics when characterizing the microbiome and of ranking these pairs in terms of their interactions (i.e., species collective behavior) that shape transition from healthy to unhealthy states. The macroecological characterization of the microbiome is useful for public health and disease diagnosis and etiognosis, while species-specific analyses can detect beneficial species leading to personalized design of pre- and probiotic treatments and microbiome engineering.

A study on the dynamics of temporary HIV treatment to assess the controversial outcomes of clinical trials: An in-silico approach

It is still unclear under which conditions temporary combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) results in a prolonged remission after interruption. Clinical trials have contradicting reposts about the effect of cART during primary HIV infection on the disease progression. Here we propose that the apparent contradiction is due the presence of a window of opportunity for cART treatment observed in the in silico studies. We study non-linear correlations in the HIV dynamics over time using information theory. This approach requires a large dataset of CD4+ T lymphocytes and viral load concentrations over time. Since it is unfeasible to collect the required amount of data in clinical trials we use C-ImmSim, a clinically validated in silico model of the HIV infection, to simulate the HIV infection and temporary cART in 500 virtual patients for a period of 6 years post infection in time steps of 8 hours. We validate the results of our model with two published clinical trials of temporary cART in acute infection and analyse the impact of cART on the immune response. Our quantitative analysis predicts a “window of opportunity” of about ten months after the acute phase during which a temporary cART has significantly longer-lasting beneficial effects on the immune system as compared to treatment during the chronic phase. This window may help to explain the controversial outcomes of clinical trials that differ by the starting time and duration of the short-term course cART and provides a critical insight to develop appropriate protocols for future clinical trials.

Resisting Influence: How the Strength of Predispositions to Resist Control Can Change Strategies for Optimal Opinion Control in the Voter Model

In this paper, we investigate influence maximization, or optimal opinion control, in a modified version of the two-state voter dynamics in which a native state and a controlled or influenced state are accounted for. We include agent predispositions to resist influence in the form of a probability q with which agents spontaneously switch back to the native state when in the controlled state. We argue that in contrast to the original voter model, optimal control in this setting depends on q: For low strength of predispositions q, optimal control should focus on hub nodes, but for large q, optimal control can be achieved by focusing on the lowest degree nodes. We investigate this transition between hub and low-degree node control for heterogeneous undirected networks and give analytical and numerical arguments for the existence of two control regimes.

Locating Order-Disorder Phase Transition in a Cardiac System

To prevent sudden cardiac death, predicting where in the cardiac system an order-disorder phase transition into ventricular fibrillation begins is as important as when it begins. We present a computationally efficient, information-theoretic approach to predicting the locations of the wavebreaks. Such wavebreaks initiate fibrillation in a cardiac system where the order-disorder behavior is controlled by a single driving component, mimicking electrical misfiring from the pulmonary veins or from the Purkinje fibers. Communication analysis between the driving component and each component of the system reveals that channel capacity, mutual information and transfer entropy can locate the wavebreaks. This approach is applicable to interventional therapies to prevent sudden death, and to a wide range of systems to mitigate or prevent imminent phase transitions.

Interactional dynamics of same-sex marriage legislation in the United States

Understanding how people form opinions and make decisions is a complex phenomenon that depends on both personal practices and interactions. Recent availability of real-world data has enabled quantitative analysis of opinion formation, which illuminates phenomena that impact physical and social sciences. Public policies exemplify complex opinion formation spanning individual and population scales, and a timely example is the legalization of same-sex marriage in the United States. Here, we seek to understand how this issue captures the relationship between state-laws and Senate representatives subject to geographical and ideological factors. Using distance-based correlations, we study how physical proximity and state-government ideology may be used to extract patterns in state-law adoption and senatorial support of same-sex marriage. Results demonstrate that proximal states have similar opinion dynamics in both state-laws and senators' opinions, and states with similar state-government ideology have analogous senators' opinions. Moreover, senators' opinions drive state-laws with a time lag. Thus, change in opinion not only results from negotiations among individuals, but also reflects inherent spatial and political similarities and temporal delays. We build a social impact model of state-law adoption in light of these results, which predicts the evolution of state-laws legalizing same-sex marriage over the last three decades.

Efficient collective influence maximization in cascading processes with first-order transitions

In many social and biological networks, the collective dynamics of the entire system can be shaped by a small set of influential units through a global cascading process, manifested by an abrupt first-order transition in dynamical behaviors. Despite its importance in applications, efficient identification of multiple influential spreaders in cascading processes still remains a challenging task for large-scale networks. Here we address this issue by exploring the collective influence in general threshold models of cascading process. Our analysis reveals that the importance of spreaders is fixed by the subcritical paths along which cascades propagate: the number of subcritical paths attached to each spreader determines its contribution to global cascades. The concept of subcritical path allows us to introduce a scalable algorithm for massively large-scale networks. Results in both synthetic random graphs and real networks show that the proposed method can achieve larger collective influence given the same number of seeds compared with other scalable heuristic approaches.

Dynamic versus static biomarkers in cancer immune checkpoint blockade: unravelling complexity

Recently, there has been a coordinated effort from academic institutions and the pharmaceutical industry to identify biomarkers that can predict responses to immune checkpoint blockade in cancer. Several biomarkers have been identified; however, none has reliably predicted response in a sufficiently rigorous manner for routine use. Here, we argue that the therapeutic response to immune checkpoint blockade is a critical state transition of a complex system. Such systems are highly sensitive to initial conditions, and critical transitions are notoriously difficult to predict far in advance. Nevertheless, warning signals can be detected closer to the tipping point. Advances in mathematics and network biology are starting to make it possible to identify such warning signals. We propose that these dynamic biomarkers could prove to be useful in distinguishing responding from non-responding patients, as well as facilitate the identification of new therapeutic targets for combination therapy.

Riemannian-geometric entropy for measuring network complexity

A central issue in the science of complex systems is the quantitative characterization of complexity. In the present work we address this issue by resorting to information geometry. Actually we propose a constructive way to associate with a-in principle, any-network a differentiable object (a Riemannian manifold) whose volume is used to define the entropy. The effectiveness of the latter in measuring network complexity is successfully proved through its capability of detecting a classical phase transition occurring in both random graphs and scale-free networks, as well as of characterizing small exponential random graphs, configuration models, and real networks.

Binary dynamics on star networks under external perturbations

We study a binary dynamical process that is a representation of the voter model with two candidates and opinion makers. The voters are represented by nodes of a network of social contacts with internal states labeled 0 or 1 and nodes that are connected can influence each other. The network is also perturbed by opinion makers, a set of external nodes whose states are frozen in 0 or 1 and that can influence all nodes of the network. The quantity of interest is the probability of finding m nodes in state 1 at time t. Here we study this process on star networks, which are simple representations of hubs found in complex systems, and compare the results with those obtained for networks that are fully connected. In both cases a transition from disordered to ordered equilibrium states is observed as the number of external nodes becomes small. For fully connected networks the probability distribution becomes uniform at the critical point. For star networks, on the other hand, we show that the equilibrium distribution splits in two peaks, reflecting the two possible states of the central node. We obtain approximate analytical solutions for the equilibrium distribution that clarify the role of the central node in the process. We show that the network topology also affects the time scale of oscillations in single realizations of the dynamics, which are much faster for the star network. Finally, extending the analysis to two stars we compare our results with simulations in simple scale-free networks.

Reconstructing propagation networks with temporal similarity

Node similarity significantly contributes to the growth of real networks. In this paper, based on the observed epidemic spreading results we apply the node similarity metrics to reconstruct the underlying networks hosting the propagation. We find that the reconstruction accuracy of the similarity metrics is strongly influenced by the infection rate of the spreading process. Moreover, there is a range of infection rate in which the reconstruction accuracy of some similarity metrics drops nearly to zero. To improve the similarity-based reconstruction method, we propose a temporal similarity metric which takes into account the time information of the spreading. The reconstruction results are remarkably improved with the new method.

The relative ineffectiveness of criminal network disruption

Researchers, policymakers and law enforcement agencies across the globe struggle to find effective strategies to control criminal networks. The effectiveness of disruption strategies is known to depend on both network topology and network resilience. However, as these criminal networks operate in secrecy, data-driven knowledge concerning the effectiveness of different criminal network disruption strategies is very limited. By combining computational modeling and social network analysis with unique criminal network intelligence data from the Dutch Police, we discovered, in contrast to common belief, that criminal networks might even become ‘stronger’, after targeted attacks. On the other hand increased efficiency within criminal networks decreases its internal security, thus offering opportunities for law enforcement agencies to target these networks more deliberately. Our results emphasize the importance of criminal network interventions at an early stage, before the network gets a chance to (re-)organize to maximum resilience. In the end disruption strategies force criminal networks to become more exposed, which causes successful network disruption to become a long-term effort.