Modelling biological behaviours with the unified modelling language: an immunological case study and critique

Complex Temporal Biology: Towards A Unified Multi-Scale Approach to Predict the Flow of Information

Two hallmarks of biological processes are complexity and time. While complexity can have many meanings, in this paper we propose an explicit link to the flow of time and how it is experienced by the organism. While the flow of time is rooted in constraints of fundamental physics, understanding the operation of biological systems in terms of processual flow and tempo is more elusive. Fortunately, the convergence of new computational and methodological perspectives will provide a means to transform complicated, nonlinear paths between related phenomena at different time scales into dynamic four-dimensional perspectives. According to the complex temporal biology approach, information flow between time scales of multiple lengths is a transformational process that acts to regulate life's complexity. Interactions between temporal intervals of differing magnitude and otherwise loosely-related mechanisms can be understood as inter-timescale information flow. We further propose that informational flow between time scales is the glue that binds the multiple vertical layers of biocomplexity, as well as yielding surprising outcomes ranging from complex behaviors to the persistence of lineages. Building a foundation of rules based on common interactions between orders of time and common experiential contexts would help to reintegrate biology. Emerging methodologies such as state-of-the-art imaging, visualization techniques, and computational data analysis can help us uncover these interactions. In conclusion, we propose educational and community-level changes that would better enable our vision.

The Potential of Computational Modeling to Predict Disease Course and Treatment Response in Patients with Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

As of today, 20 disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) have been approved for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) and, based on their efficacy, they can be grouped into moderate-efficacy DMDs and high-efficacy DMDs. The choice of the drug mostly relies on the judgment and experience of neurologists and the evaluation of the therapeutic response can only be obtained by monitoring the clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) status during follow up. In an era where therapies are focused on personalization, this study aims to develop a modeling infrastructure to predict the evolution of relapsing MS and the response to treatments. We built a computational modeling infrastructure named Universal Immune System Simulator (UISS), which can simulate the main features and dynamics of the immune system activities. We extended UISS to simulate all the underlying MS pathogenesis and its interaction with the host immune system. This simulator is a multi-scale, multi-organ, agent-based simulator with an attached module capable of simulating the dynamics of specific biological pathways at the molecular level. We simulated six MS patients with different relapsing-remitting courses. These patients were characterized based on their age, sex, presence of oligoclonal bands, therapy, and MRI lesion load at the onset. The simulator framework is made freely available and can be used following the links provided in the availability section. Even though the model can be further personalized employing immunological parameters and genetic information, we generated a few simulation scenarios for each patient based on the available data. Among these simulations, it was possible to find the scenarios that realistically matched the real clinical and MRI history. Moreover, for two patients, the simulator anticipated the timing of subsequent relapses, which occurred, suggesting that UISS may have the potential to assist MS specialists in predicting the course of the disease and the response to treatment.

Application of Modeling Approaches to Explore Vaccine Adjuvant Mode-of-Action

Novel adjuvant technologies have a key role in the development of next-generation vaccines, due to their capacity to modulate the duration, strength and quality of the immune response. The AS01 adjuvant is used in the malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS01 and in the licensed herpes-zoster vaccine (Shingrix) where the vaccine has proven its ability to generate protective responses with both robust humoral and T-cell responses. For many years, animal models have provided insights into adjuvant mode-of-action (MoA), generally through investigating individual genes or proteins. Furthermore, modeling and simulation techniques can be utilized to integrate a variety of different data types; ranging from serum biomarkers to large scale “omics” datasets. In this perspective we present a framework to create a holistic integration of pre-clinical datasets and immunological literature in order to develop an evidence-based hypothesis of AS01 adjuvant MoA, creating a unified view of multiple experiments. Furthermore, we highlight how holistic systems-knowledge can serve as a basis for the construction of models and simulations supporting exploration of key questions surrounding adjuvant MoA. Using the Systems-Biology-Graphical-Notation, a tool for graphical representation of biological processes, we have captured high-level cellular behaviors and interactions, and cytokine dynamics during the early immune response, which are substantiated by a series of diagrams detailing cellular dynamics. Through explicitly describing AS01 MoA we have built a consensus of understanding across multiple experiments, and so we present a framework to integrate modeling approaches into exploring adjuvant MoA, in order to guide experimental design, interpret results and inform rational design of vaccines.

Automated multi-objective calibration of biological agent-based simulations

Computational agent-based simulation (ABS) is increasingly used to complement laboratory techniques in advancing our understanding of biological systems. Calibration, the identification of parameter values that align simulation with biological behaviours, becomes challenging as increasingly complex biological domains are simulated. Complex domains cannot be characterized by single metrics alone, rendering simulation calibration a fundamentally multi-metric optimization problem that typical calibration techniques cannot handle. Yet calibration is an essential activity in simulation-based science; the baseline calibration forms a control for subsequent experimentation and hence is fundamental in the interpretation of results. Here, we develop and showcase a method, built around multi-objective optimization, for calibrating ABSs against complex target behaviours requiring several metrics (termed objectives) to characterize. Multi-objective calibration (MOC) delivers those sets of parameter values representing optimal trade-offs in simulation performance against each metric, in the form of a Pareto front. We use MOC to calibrate a well-understood immunological simulation against both established a priori and previously unestablished target behaviours. Furthermore, we show that simulation-borne conclusions are broadly, but not entirely, robust to adopting baseline parameter values from different extremes of the Pareto front, highlighting the importance of MOC's identification of numerous calibration solutions. We devise a method for detecting overfitting in a multi-objective context, not previously possible, used to save computational effort by terminating MOC when no improved solutions will be found. MOC can significantly impact biological simulation, adding rigour to and speeding up an otherwise time-consuming calibration process and highlighting inappropriate biological capture by simulations that cannot be well calibrated. As such, it produces more accurate simulations that generate more informative biological predictions.

Extending and Applying Spartan to Perform Temporal Sensitivity Analyses for Predicting Changes in Influential Biological Pathways in Computational Models

Through integrating real time imaging, computational modelling, and statistical analysis approaches, previous work has suggested that the induction of and response to cell adhesion factors is the key initiating pathway in early lymphoid tissue development, in contrast to the previously accepted view that the process is triggered by chemokine mediated cell recruitment. These model derived hypotheses were developed using spartan, an open-source sensitivity analysis toolkit designed to establish and understand the relationship between a computational model and the biological system that model captures. Here, we extend the functionality available in spartan to permit the production of statistical analyses that contrast the behavior exhibited by a computational model at various simulated time-points, enabling a temporal analysis that could suggest whether the influence of biological mechanisms changes over time. We exemplify this extended functionality by using the computational model of lymphoid tissue development as a time-lapse tool. By generating results at twelve- hour intervals, we show how the extensions to spartan have been used to suggest that lymphoid tissue development could be biphasic, and predict the time-point when a switch in the influence of biological mechanisms might occur.

Leukocyte Motility Models Assessed through Simulation and Multi-objective Optimization-Based Model Selection

The advent of two-photon microscopy now reveals unprecedented, detailed spatio-temporal data on cellular motility and interactions in vivo. Understanding cellular motility patterns is key to gaining insight into the development and possible manipulation of the immune response. Computational simulation has become an established technique for understanding immune processes and evaluating hypotheses in the context of experimental data, and there is clear scope to integrate microscopy-informed motility dynamics. However, determining which motility model best reflects in vivo motility is non-trivial: 3D motility is an intricate process requiring several metrics to characterize. This complicates model selection and parameterization, which must be performed against several metrics simultaneously. Here we evaluate Brownian motion, Lévy walk and several correlated random walks (CRWs) against the motility dynamics of neutrophils and lymph node T cells under inflammatory conditions by simultaneously considering cellular translational and turn speeds, and meandering indices. Heterogeneous cells exhibiting a continuum of inherent translational speeds and directionalities comprise both datasets, a feature significantly improving capture of in vivo motility when simulated as a CRW. Furthermore, translational and turn speeds are inversely correlated, and the corresponding CRW simulation again improves capture of our in vivo data, albeit to a lesser extent. In contrast, Brownian motion poorly reflects our data. Lévy walk is competitive in capturing some aspects of neutrophil motility, but T cell directional persistence only, therein highlighting the importance of evaluating models against several motility metrics simultaneously. This we achieve through novel application of multi-objective optimization, wherein each model is independently implemented and then parameterized to identify optimal trade-offs in performance against each metric. The resultant Pareto fronts of optimal solutions are directly contrasted to identify models best capturing in vivo dynamics, a technique that can aid model selection more generally. Our technique robustly determines our cell populations’ motility strategies, and paves the way for simulations that incorporate accurate immune cell motility dynamics.

Advances in imaging technology allow investigators to monitor the movements and interactions of immune cells in a live animal, processes essential to understanding and manipulating how an immune response is generated. T cells in the brains of Toxoplasma gondii-infected mice have previously been described as performing a Lévy walk, an optimal strategy for locating sparsely, randomly distributed targets. Determining which motility model best characterizes a population of cells is problematic; multiple metrics are required to specify as intricate and nuanced a process as 3D motility, and the tools to evaluate model-parameter combinations have been lacking. We have developed a novel framework to perform this model evaluation through simulation, a popular tool for exploring complex immune system phenomena. We find that Lévy walk offers an inferior capture of our data to another class of motility model, the correlated random walk, and this determination was possible because we are able to explicitly evaluate several motility metrics simultaneously. Further, we find evidence that leukocytes differ in their inherent translational and rotational speeds. These findings facilitate more accurate immune system simulations aimed at unravelling the processes underpinning this critical biological function.

Statistical Techniques Complement UML When Developing Domain Models of Complex Dynamical Biosystems

Computational modelling and simulation is increasingly being used to complement traditional wet-lab techniques when investigating the mechanistic behaviours of complex biological systems. In order to ensure computational models are fit for purpose, it is essential that the abstracted view of biology captured in the computational model, is clearly and unambiguously defined within a conceptual model of the biological domain (a domain model), that acts to accurately represent the biological system and to document the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. We present a domain model of the IL-1 stimulated NF-κB signalling pathway, which unambiguously defines the spatial, temporal and stochastic requirements for our future computational model. Through the development of this model, we observe that, in isolation, UML is not sufficient for the purpose of creating a domain model, and that a number of descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques provide complementary perspectives, in particular when modelling the heterogeneity of dynamics at the single-cell level. We believe this approach of using UML to define the structure and interactions within a complex system, along with statistics to define the stochastic and dynamic nature of complex systems, is crucial for ensuring that conceptual models of complex dynamical biosystems, which are developed using UML, are fit for purpose, and unambiguously define the functional requirements for the resultant computational model.

Using argument notation to engineer biological simulations with increased confidence

The application of computational and mathematical modelling to explore the mechanics of biological systems is becoming prevalent. To significantly impact biological research, notably in developing novel therapeutics, it is critical that the model adequately represents the captured system. Confidence in adopting in silico approaches can be improved by applying a structured argumentation approach, alongside model development and results analysis. We propose an approach based on argumentation from safety-critical systems engineering, where a system is subjected to a stringent analysis of compliance against identified criteria. We show its use in examining the biological information upon which a model is based, identifying model strengths, highlighting areas requiring additional biological experimentation and providing documentation to support model publication. We demonstrate our use of structured argumentation in the development of a model of lymphoid tissue formation, specifically Peyer's Patches. The argumentation structure is captured using Artoo (www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software/artoo), our Web-based tool for constructing fitness-for-purpose arguments, using a notation based on the safety-critical goal structuring notation. We show how argumentation helps in making the design and structured analysis of a model transparent, capturing the reasoning behind the inclusion or exclusion of each biological feature and recording assumptions, as well as pointing to evidence supporting model-derived conclusions.