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Joshi K, Rumpler E, Kennedy-Shaffer L, Bosan R, Lipsitch M. Comparative performance of between-population vaccine allocation strategies with applications for emerging pandemics. Vaccine 2023; 41:1864-1874. [PMID: 36697312 PMCID: PMC10075509 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.12.053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2022] [Revised: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
Vaccine allocation decisions during emerging pandemics have proven to be challenging due to competing ethical, practical, and political considerations. Complicating decision making, policy makers need to consider vaccine allocation strategies that balance needs both within and between populations. When vaccine stockpiles are limited, doses should be allocated in locations to maximize their impact. Using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model we examine optimal vaccine allocation decisions across two populations considering the impact of characteristics of the population (e.g., size, underlying immunity, heterogeneous risk structure, interaction), vaccine (e.g., vaccine efficacy), pathogen (e.g., transmissibility), and delivery (e.g., varying speed and timing of rollout). Across a wide range of characteristics considered, we find that vaccine allocation proportional to population size (i.e., pro-rata allocation) performs either better or comparably to nonproportional allocation strategies in minimizing the cumulative number of infections. These results may argue in favor of sharing of vaccines between locations in the context of an epidemic caused by an emerging pathogen, where many epidemiologic characteristics may not be known.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keya Joshi
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA
| | - Eva Rumpler
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA
| | - Lee Kennedy-Shaffer
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA; Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Vassar College, 12604 Poughkeepsie, NY, USA
| | - Rafia Bosan
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA
| | - Marc Lipsitch
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA
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Yin J, Zhu Y, Fan X. Correlation and causality between carbon and energy markets: a complexity perspective. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:28597-28608. [PMID: 36401009 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-24122-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Accepted: 11/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Global warming obliges humans to focus on the relationships between carbon and energy markets. This study considers the relationship between carbon and energy markets from a complexity perspective. Chinese carbon prices and four energy indexes are selected as empirical variables. First, the complexities of carbon and energy markets are measured by multi-scale fuzzy entropy. The critical time delay of the series is then obtained by maximizing the Pearson coefficients between these markets. Further, analysis of the detrended cross-correlation coefficient confirms the existence of time delay. Finally, transfer entropy is applied to investigate the causality pertaining to dynamic complexity. Results of fuzzy entropy analysis reveal that the carbon market has lower complexity than energy markets. Meanwhile, multi-scale results indicate greater complexity on the small time scales in all markets than on the large time scales. The critical time delay is found to be about 50, which maximizes the correlation coefficient. Finally, causality between carbon and energy markets varies. Expectations in the carbon market impact oil gas and coal markets; electricity and new energy affect the carbon market; and cross-causality exists in the relationship between coal and carbon markets. The participants should focus on the information transmission between carbon and energy markets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiuli Yin
- Center for Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, China
| | - Yan Zhu
- Center for Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, China
| | - Xinghua Fan
- Center for Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, China.
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Joshi K, Rumpler E, Kennedy-Shaffer L, Bosan R, Lipsitch M. Comparative performance of between-population vaccine allocation strategies with applications for emerging pandemics. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2022:2021.06.18.21259137. [PMID: 34212161 PMCID: PMC8246345 DOI: 10.1101/2021.06.18.21259137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Vaccine allocation decisions during emerging pandemics have proven to be challenging due to competing ethical, practical, and political considerations. Complicating decision making, policy makers need to consider vaccine allocation strategies that balance needs both within and between populations. Due to limited vaccine stockpiles, vaccine doses should be allocated in locations where their impact will be maximized. Using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model we examine optimal vaccine allocation decisions across two populations considering the impact of population size, underlying immunity, continuous vaccine roll-out, heterogeneous population risk structure, and differences in disease transmissibility. We find that in the context of an emerging pathogen where many epidemiologic characteristics might not be known, equal vaccine allocation between populations performs optimally in most scenarios. In the specific case considering heterogeneous population risk structure, first targeting individuals at higher risk of transmission or death due to infection leads to equal resource allocation across populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keya Joshi
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Eva Rumpler
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Lee Kennedy-Shaffer
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, Massachusetts
- Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Vassar College, 12604 Poughkeepsie, New York
| | - Rafia Bosan
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Marc Lipsitch
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, Massachusetts
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Jiang Y, Tong YQ, Fang B, Zhang WK, Yu XJ. Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19031677. [PMID: 35162701 PMCID: PMC8834852 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19031677] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2021] [Revised: 01/28/2022] [Accepted: 01/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/07/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. METHODS We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. RESULTS The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. CONCLUSIONS This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuan Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Virology, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China; (Y.J.); (W.-k.Z.)
| | - Ye-qing Tong
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China; (Y.-q.T.); (B.F.)
| | - Bin Fang
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China; (Y.-q.T.); (B.F.)
| | - Wen-kang Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Virology, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China; (Y.J.); (W.-k.Z.)
| | - Xue-jie Yu
- State Key Laboratory of Virology, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China; (Y.J.); (W.-k.Z.)
- Correspondence:
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Rees EM, Waterlow NR, Lowe R, Kucharski AJ. Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies. Wellcome Open Res 2021; 6:138. [PMID: 34708157 PMCID: PMC8517721 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16701.3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/20/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eleanor M. Rees
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Naomi R. Waterlow
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Adam J. Kucharski
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Rees EM, Waterlow NR, Lowe R, Kucharski AJ. Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies. Wellcome Open Res 2021; 6:138. [PMID: 34708157 PMCID: PMC8517721 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16701.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eleanor M. Rees
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Naomi R. Waterlow
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Adam J. Kucharski
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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De Lellis P, Ruiz Marín M, Porfiri M. Quantifying the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections. THE EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL. SPECIAL TOPICS 2021; 231:1635-1643. [PMID: 34725567 PMCID: PMC8552435 DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00299-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
In the media, a prevalent narrative is that the incumbent United States President Donald J. Trump lost the 2020 elections because of the way he handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantitative evidence to support this narrative is, however, limited. We put forward a spatial, information-theoretic approach to critically examine the link between voting behavior and COVID-19 incidence in the 2020 presidential elections. The approach overcomes classical limitations of traditional regression analysis, where it does not require an underlying mathematical model and it can capture nonlinear interactions. From the analysis of county-level data, we uncovered a robust association between voting behavior and prevalence of COVID-19 cases. Surprisingly, such an association points in the opposite direction from the accepted narrative: in counties that experienced less COVID-19 cases, the incumbent President lost more ground to his opponent, now President Joseph R. Biden Jr. A tenable explanation of this observation is the different attitude of liberal and conservative voters toward the pandemic, which led to more COVID-19 spreading in counties with a larger share of republican voters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pietro De Lellis
- Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Naples, Italy
| | - Manuel Ruiz Marín
- Department of Quantitative Methods, Law and Modern Languages, Technical University of Cartagena, 30201 Cartagena, Murcia Spain
| | - Maurizio Porfiri
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Center for Urban Science and Progress, New York University Tandon School of Engineering, Brooklyn, NY 11201 USA
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Rees EM, Waterlow NR, Lowe R, Kucharski AJ. Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies. Wellcome Open Res 2021; 6:138. [PMID: 34708157 PMCID: PMC8517721 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16701.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eleanor M. Rees
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Naomi R. Waterlow
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Adam J. Kucharski
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Giles JR, Zu Erbach-Schoenberg E, Tatem AJ, Gardner L, Bjørnstad ON, Metcalf CJE, Wesolowski A. The duration of travel impacts the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:22572-22579. [PMID: 32839329 PMCID: PMC7486699 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1922663117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Humans can impact the spatial transmission dynamics of infectious diseases by introducing pathogens into susceptible environments. The rate at which this occurs depends in part on human-mobility patterns. Increasingly, mobile-phone usage data are used to quantify human mobility and investigate the impact on disease dynamics. Although the number of trips between locations and the duration of those trips could both affect infectious-disease dynamics, there has been limited work to quantify and model the duration of travel in the context of disease transmission. Using mobility data inferred from mobile-phone calling records in Namibia, we calculated both the number of trips between districts and the duration of these trips from 2010 to 2014. We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to these data to describe both the mean trip number and duration. Results indicate that trip duration is positively related to trip distance, but negatively related to the destination population density. The highest volume of trips and shortest trip durations were among high-density districts, whereas trips among low-density districts had lower volume with longer duration. We also analyzed the impact of including trip duration in spatial-transmission models for a range of pathogens and introduction locations. We found that inclusion of trip duration generally delays the rate of introduction, regardless of pathogen, and that the variance and uncertainty around spatial spread increases proportionally with pathogen-generation time. These results enhance our understanding of disease-dispersal dynamics driven by human mobility, which has potential to elucidate optimal spatial and temporal scales for epidemic interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- John R Giles
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205;
| | - Elisabeth Zu Erbach-Schoenberg
- Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom
- WorldPop, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom
- WorldPop, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom
| | - Lauren Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering, Baltimore, MD 21218
| | - Ottar N Bjørnstad
- Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802
| | - C J E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Amy Wesolowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205
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