Estimating disease vector population size from citizen science data

Models and data used to predict the abundance and distribution of Ixodes scapularis (blacklegged tick) in North America: a scoping review

Tick-borne diseases (TBD) remain prevalent worldwide, and risk assessment of tick habitat suitability is crucial to prevent or reduce their burden. This scoping review provides a comprehensive survey of models and data used to predict I. scapularis distribution and abundance in North America. We identified 4661 relevant primary research articles published in English between January 1st, 2012, and July 18th, 2022, and selected 41 articles following full-text review. Models used data-driven and mechanistic modelling frameworks informed by diverse tick, hydroclimatic, and ecological variables. Predictions captured tick abundance (n = 14, 34.1%), distribution (n = 22, 53.6%) and both (n = 5, 12.1%). All studies used tick data, and many incorporated both hydroclimatic and ecological variables. Minimal host- and human-specific data were utilized. Biases related to data collection, protocols, and tick data quality affect completeness and representativeness of prediction models. Further research and collaboration are needed to improve prediction accuracy and develop effective strategies to reduce TBD.

Developing One Health surveillance systems

The health of humans, domestic and wild animals, plants, and the environment are inter-dependent. Global anthropogenic change is a key driver of disease emergence and spread and leads to biodiversity loss and ecosystem function degradation, which are themselves drivers of disease emergence. Pathogen spill-over events and subsequent disease outbreaks, including pandemics, in humans, animals and plants may arise when factors driving disease emergence and spread converge. One Health is an integrated approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimize human, animal and ecosystem health. Conventional disease surveillance has been siloed by sectors, with separate systems addressing the health of humans, domestic animals, cultivated plants, wildlife and the environment. One Health surveillance should include integrated surveillance for known and unknown pathogens, but combined with this more traditional disease-based surveillance, it also must include surveillance of drivers of disease emergence to improve prevention and mitigation of spill-over events. Here, we outline such an approach, including the characteristics and components required to overcome barriers and to optimize an integrated One Health surveillance system.

Modeling Tick Populations: An Ecological Test Case for Gradient Boosted Trees

General linear models have been the foundational statistical framework used to discover the ecological processes that explain the distribution and abundance of natural populations. Analyses of the rapidly expanding cache of environmental and ecological data, however, require advanced statistical methods to contend with complexities inherent to extremely large natural data sets. Modern machine learning frameworks such as gradient boosted trees efficiently identify complex ecological relationships in massive data sets, which are expected to result in accurate predictions of the distribution and abundance of organisms in nature. However, rigorous assessments of the theoretical advantages of these methodologies on natural data sets are rare. Here we compare the abilities of gradient boosted and linear models to identify environmental features that explain observed variations in the distribution and abundance of blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) populations in a data set collected across New York State over a ten-year period. The gradient boosted and linear models use similar environmental features to explain tick demography, although the gradient boosted models found non-linear relationships and interactions that are difficult to anticipate and often impractical to identify with a linear modeling framework. Further, the gradient boosted models predicted the distribution and abundance of ticks in years and areas beyond the training data with much greater accuracy than their linear model counterparts. The flexible gradient boosting framework also permitted additional model types that provide practical advantages for tick surveillance and public health. The results highlight the potential of gradient boosted models to discover novel ecological phenomena affecting pathogen demography and as a powerful public health tool to mitigate disease risks.

Comparison of acarological risk metrics derived from active and passive surveillance and their concordance with tick-borne disease incidence

Tick-borne diseases continue to threaten human health across the United States. Both active and passive tick surveillance can complement human case surveillance, providing spatio-temporal information on when and where humans are at risk for encounters with ticks and tick-borne pathogens. However, little work has been done to assess the concordance of the acarological risk metrics from each surveillance method. We used data on Ixodes scapularis and its associated human pathogens from Connecticut (2019-2021) collected through active collections (drag sampling) or passive submissions from the public to compare county estimates of tick and pathogen presence, infection prevalence, and tick abundance by life stage. Between the surveillance strategies, we found complete agreement in estimates of tick and pathogen presence, high concordance in infection prevalence estimates for Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, and Babesia microti, but no consistent relationships between actively and passively derived estimates of tick abundance or abundance of infected ticks by life stage. We also compared nymphal metrics (i.e., pathogen prevalence in nymphs, nymphal abundance, and abundance of infected nymphs) with reported incidence of Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis, but did not find any consistent relationships with any of these metrics. The small spatial and temporal scale for which we had consistently collected active and passive data limited our ability to find significant relationships. Findings are likely to differ if examined across a broader spatial or temporal coverage with greater variation in acarological and epidemiological outcomes. Our results indicate similar outcomes between some actively and passively derived tick surveillance metrics (tick and pathogen presence, pathogen prevalence), but comparisons were variable for abundance estimates.

Surveillance of Rocky Mountain wood ticks (Dermacentor andersoni) and American dog ticks (Dermacentor variabilis) in Colorado

Ticks pose an emerging threat of infectious pathogen transmission in the United States in part due to expanding suitable habitat ranges in the wake of climate change. Active and passive tick surveillance can inform maps of tick distributions to warn the public of their risk of exposure to ticks. In Colorado, widespread active surveillance programs have difficulty due to the state's diverse terrain. However, combining multiple citizen science techniques can create a more accurate representation of tick distribution than any passive surveillance dataset alone. Our study uses county-level tick distribution data from Northern Arizona University, the Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment, and veterinary surveillance in addition to literature data to assess the distribution of the Rocky Mountain wood tick, Dermacentor andersoni, and the American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis. We found that D. andersoni for the most part inhabits counties at higher elevations than D. variabilis in Colorado.

Emergence of Hyalomma marginatum and Hyalomma rufipes adults revealed by citizen science tick monitoring in Hungary

Hyalomma ticks are important vectors of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and other pathogens. They are frequently carried as immatures from Africa, the Middle East and Mediterranean areas to temperate Europe via migratory birds and emergence of adults has been reported in many countries where it has so far been considered non-endemic. This study aimed to implement the first steps of the DAMA (Document, Assess, Monitor, Act) protocol by monitoring the potential arrival of adult Hyalomma ticks in Hungary applying citizen-science methods. Ticks were collected from April to December 2021 by asking volunteer participants through a self-made website to look for large, quickly moving, striped-legged hard ticks on themselves, their pets and livestock. Owing to an intensive media campaign, the project website had more than 31,000 visitors within 7 months; 137 specimens and several hundred photos of hard ticks were submitted by citizen scientists from all over the country. Beside Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus, Dermacentor marginatus and Haemaphysalis inermis, a specimen from a dog was morphologically identified as a male Hyalomma marginatum and another removed from a cow as a male Hyalomma rufipes. The dog and the cow had never been abroad, lived approximately 280 km apart, so the two Hyalomma observations can be considered separate introductions. Amplification of the partial mitochondrial cytochrome C oxidase subunit I gene was successfully run for both specimens. Sequencing confirmed the morphological identification for both ticks. Based on the phylogenetic analyses, the Hy. marginatum individual most likely belongs to the Eurasian population and the Hy. rufipes tick to a clade of mixed sequences from Europe and Africa. We summarize the scattered historical reports about the occurrence of Hyalomma ticks and CCHFV in Hungary. Our data highlight the effectiveness of citizens science programmes in the monitoring and risk assessment of CCHFV emergence and preparedness in the study area.

Monitoring Trends in Distribution and Seasonality of Medically Important Ticks in North America Using Online Crowdsourced Records from iNaturalist

Simple Summary

An increasing number of cases of tick-borne diseases are being reported across North America and in new areas. This has been linked to the spread of ticks, primarily the blacklegged tick Ixodes scapularis and the lone star tick Amblyomma americanum, into new geographical regions. Tick surveillance systems have played an important role in monitoring the changing distributions of these ticks and have benefitted greatly from including data collected by members of the public through citizen or community science projects. Enlisting the help of community scientists is an economical way to collect large amounts of data over a wide geographical area, and participants can also benefit by receiving information relevant to their tick encounter, for example regarding tick-borne disease symptoms. This study examined tick observations from the online image-based biological recording platform iNaturalist to evaluate its use as an extra tool to collect information on expanding tick distributions. The distribution and seasonality of iNaturalist tick observations were found to accurately represent those of the studied species and identified potential new areas of tick expansion. Free-to-access iNaturalist data is a highly cost-effective method to support existing tick surveillance strategies to aid preparedness and response in emerging areas of tick establishment.

Abstract

Recent increases in the incidence and geographic range of tick-borne diseases in North America are linked to the range expansion of medically important tick species, including Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, and Amblyomma maculatum. Passive tick surveillance programs have been highly successful in collecting information on tick distribution, seasonality, host-biting activity, and pathogen infection prevalence. These have demonstrated the power of citizen or community science participation to collect country-wide, epidemiologically relevant data in a resource-efficient manner. This study examined tick observations from the online image-based biological recording platform iNaturalist to evaluate its use as an effective tool for monitoring the distributions of A. americanum, A. maculatum, I. scapularis, and Dermacentor in the United States and Canada. The distribution and seasonality of iNaturalist tick observations were found to accurately represent those of the studied species. County-level iNaturalist tick occurrence data showed good agreement with other data sources in documented areas of I. scapularis and A. americanum establishment, and highlighted numerous previously unreported counties with iNaturalist observations of these species. This study supports the use of iNaturalist data as a highly cost-effective passive tick surveillance method that can complement existing surveillance strategies to update tick distributions and identify new areas of tick establishment.

Community engaged tick surveillance and tickMAP as a public health tool to track the emergence of ticks and tick-borne diseases in New York

A community engaged passive surveillance program was utilized to acquire ticks and associated information throughout New York state. Ticks were speciated and screened for several tick-borne pathogens. Of these ticks, only I. scapularis was commonly infected with pathogens of human relevance, including B. burgdorferi, B. miyamotoi, A. phagocytophilum, B. microti, and Powassan virus. In addition, the geographic and temporal distribution of tick species and pathogens was determined. This enabled the construction of a powerful visual analytical mapping tool, tickMAP to track the emergence of ticks and tick-borne pathogens in real-time. The public can use this tool to identify hot-spots of disease emergence, clinicians for supportive evidence during differential diagnosis, and researchers to better understand factors influencing the emergence of ticks and tick-borne diseases in New York. Overall, we have created a community-engaged tick surveillance program and an interactive visual analytical tickMAP that other regions could emulate to provide real-time tracking and an early warning for the emergence of tick-borne diseases.