Safety assessment of petrochemical enterprise using the cloud model, PHA-LOPA and the bow-tie model

The Comprehensive Identification of Roof Risk in a Fully Mechanized Working Face Using the Cloud Model

Roof accidents seriously affect the safe and efficient mining of the working faces. Therefore, it is necessary to assess and identify the possible and influencing factors on the occurrence of roof risk in a fully mechanized mining workface. In this study, based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, a comprehensive standard cloud model was established through constructing a quantitative grade interval and calculating the weight of each index to achieve the aim of a roof risk assessment and identification. The accuracy of risk assessment was ensured by using the comprehensive analyses of various aspects, such as cloud digital features, risk assessment cloud image and standard cloud image. This showed that the main influencing factors on the occurrence of roof accidents were roof separation distance, weighting intensity and rib spalling followed by the coal body stress concentration, initial support force and geological conditions. Taking 42,115 fully mechanized working faces in the Yushen coal mining area as an engineering background, this model was adopted to assess and identify the risk of roof accidents through generating comprehensive assessment cloud images and introducing the Dice coefficient to calculate the similarity degree. The results showed that the overall risk of roof accidents in 42,115 working faces was regarded as grade II (general risk) through the overall index of comprehensive risk evaluation and a similarity degree of 0.8606. The impact of roof condition was mainly influenced by the risk of roof accidents, while the support status, personal working status and coal body condition had a limited effect on the risk of roof accidents. The comprehensive standard cloud model proposed in this study had strong visibility and discovered the key parts of risk indexes easily to solve the problems of ambiguity and quantitative identification in traditional roof risk evaluation methods. Therefore, this model was worth promoting, because it laid the foundation for the intelligent identification and early warning system of roof accident risk in a fully mechanized mining workface.

Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Fatal Accidents in the Metallurgical Industry in China

The metallurgical industry is a significant component of the national economy. The main purpose of this study was to establish a composite risk analysis method for fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry. We collected 152 fatal accidents in the Chinese metallurgical industry from 2001 to 2018, including 141 major accidents, 10 severe accidents, and 1 extraordinarily severe accident, together resulting in 731 deaths. Different from traffic or chemical industry accidents, most of the accidents in the metallurgical industry are poisoning and asphyxiation accidents, which account for 40% of the total number of fatal accidents. As the original statistical data of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry have irregular fluctuations, the traditional prediction methods, such as linear or quadratic regression models, cannot be used to predict their future characteristics. To overcome this issue, the grey interval predicting method and the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory are introduced to predict the future characteristics of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry. Different from a fault tree analysis or event tree analysis, the bow tie model integrates the basic causes, possible consequences, and corresponding safety measures of an accident in a transparent diagram. In this study, the bow tie model was used to identify the causes and consequences of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry; then, corresponding safety measures were adopted to reduce the risk.

Optimization of sand casting performance parameters and missing data prediction

Due to a wide range of applications, sand casting occupies an important position in modern casting practice. The main purpose of this study was to optimize the performance parameters of sand casting based on grey relational analysis and predict the missing data using back propagation (BP) neural network. First, the influence of human factors was eliminated by adopting the objective entropy weight method, which also saved manpower. The larger variation degree in the evaluation indicators, indicating that the evaluated projects had good discrimination in this regard, the larger weight should be given to these evaluation indicators. Second, the performance parameters of sand casting were optimized based on grey relational analysis, providing a reference for sand milling. The larger the grey relational degree, the closer the evaluated project was to the ideal project. Third, this paper provided a new method for determining the number of hidden neurons in a network according to the mean square error of training samples, and venting quality was predicted based on BP neural network. The relevant theory was deduced before predicting missing data, such that there will be a general understanding regarding the prediction principle of BP neural network. Fourth, to demonstrate the validity of BP neural network adopted in the process of missing data prediction, grey system theory was applied to compare the result of missing data prediction.

Quality evaluation of Chinese red wine based on cloud model

Determining the quality of red wine is based on many qualitative and quantitative factors. Compared with other evaluation methods, the cloud model has an uncertainty transformation between a qualitative concept and its corresponding quantitative value, and the uncertainty transformation included fuzziness and randomness, which is suitable for solving the complexity of red wine evaluation. This study introduced the cloud model into quality evaluation of red wine for the first time, and a novel algorithm of comprehensive cloud model was proposed based on an addition algorithm of two cloud models. Furthermore, to validate the cloud model adopted in our red wine evaluation system, we used the gray relational analysis and fuzzy evaluation method. The evaluation result for the red wine sample was Good, and the result confirmed that our cloud model can be used to evaluate the quality of red wine. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: In 2013, China surpassed France to become the largest country of red wine consumption in the world. Red wine is made by a natural fermentation process. There are several components that make up red wine, but the most abundant is grape juice. Ethyl alcohol is the second most abundant element and it is made naturally by the fermentation of the sugar in grape. There are more than 1,000 remaining components in the recipe for red wine, where 300 are comparatively important. Although the proportion of these components is not high, they are important factors in determining the quality of red wine. Sensory evaluation is the most common method used to determine the quality of red wine. This work has identified a cloud model that can be used, based on sensory evaluation, to determine the quality of red wine.

Thermal decomposition characteristics of foundry sand for cast iron in nitrogen atmosphere

Sand casting, currently the most popular approach to the casting production, has wide adaptability and low cost. The thermal decomposition characteristics of foundry sand for cast iron were determined for the first time in this study. Thermogravimetry was monitored by simultaneous thermal analyser to find that there was no obvious oxidation or combustion reaction in the foundry sand; the thermal decomposition degree increased as the heating rate increased. There was an obvious endothermic peak at about 846 K due to the transition of quartz from β to α phase. A novel technique was established to calculate the starting temperature of volatile emission in determining the volatile release parameter of foundry sand for cast iron. Foundry sand does not readily evaporate because its volatile content is only about 2.68 wt% and its main components have high-temperature stability. The thermal decomposition kinetics parameters of foundry sand, namely activation energy and pre-exponential factor, were obtained under kinetics theory. The activation energy of foundry sand for cast iron was small, mainly due to the wide temperature range of thermal decomposition in the foundry sand.

Sand casting safety assessment for foundry enterprises: fault tree analysis, Heinrich accident triangle, HAZOP-LOPA, bow tie model

Sand casting operations, though commonplace, pose a significant threat of explosion accidents. This paper presents a novel sand casting safety assessment technique based on fault tree analysis, Heinrich accident triangle, hazard and operability-layer of protection analysis (HAZOP-LOPA) and bow tie model components. Minimal cut sets and minimal path sets are first determined based on fault tree analysis, then the frequency of sand casting explosion accidents is calculated based on the Heinrich accident triangle. Third, the risk level of venting quality can be reduced by adopting HAZOP-LOPA; the residual risk level of venting quality remains excessive even after adopting two independent protective layers. The bow tie model is then adopted to determine the causes and consequences of venting quality. Five preventative measures are imposed to enhance the venting quality of foundry sand accompanied by 16 mitigative safety measures. Our results indicate that the risk attributable to low foundry sand venting quality can be minimized via bow tie analysis.

Assessment of air quality using a cloud model method

To effectively control air pollution, it is necessary to obtain a preliminary assessment of air quality. The purpose of this study was to introduce a cloud model method in air pollution assessment. First, the standard cloud models of air pollution indicators were obtained, and the calculating process of numerical characteristics employed by the standard cloud model was explained. Second, the levels of air pollution indicators were presented based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of cloud models, which realized the uncertainty conversion between qualitative concepts and their corresponding quantitative values, as well as taking the fuzziness and randomness into account. Air quality assessment results including SO₂, NO₂, CO, O₃, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were analysed. Third, the cloud model adopted in the assessment process of air quality was validated by grey relational analysis, and the results confirmed the validity of cloud model assessment. Fourth, the air pollution level of the air quality index (AQI) was determined, and the fuzziness and randomness of the assessment results were thoroughly analysed by taking entropy and hyper entropy into consideration. Fifth, seasonal variations in different air pollution indicators were analysed to proffer a series of recommendations for government policy decision-makers and travellers. The cloud model provided a new method for air quality assessment.