Maiden voyage into death: are fisheries affecting seabird juvenile survival during the first days at sea?

Machine learning as a successful approach for predicting complex spatio–temporal patterns in animal species abundance

Our aim was to identify an optimal analytical approach for accurately predicting complex spatio–temporal patterns in animal species distribution. We compared the performance of eight modelling techniques (generalized additive models, regression trees, bagged CART, k–nearest neighbors, stochastic gradient boosting, support vector machines, neural network, and random forest –enhanced form of bootstrap. We also performed extreme gradient boosting –an enhanced form of radiant boosting– to predict spatial patterns in abundance of migrating Balearic shearwaters based on data gathered within eBird. Derived from open–source datasets, proxies of frontal systems and ocean productivity domains that have been previously used to characterize the oceanographic habitats of seabirds were quantified, and then used as predictors in the models. The random forest model showed the best performance according to the parameters assessed (RMSE value and R2). The correlation between observed and predicted abundance with this model was also considerably high. This study shows that the combination of machine learning techniques and massive data provided by open data sources is a useful approach for identifying the long–term spatial–temporal distribution of species at regional spatial scales.

PATHOLOGY OF NORTHERN FULMARS (FULMARUS GLACIALIS) AND SHEARWATERS BEACHED ON SABLE ISLAND, NOVA SCOTIA, CANADA

Marine birds are frequently found dead on beaches, either from natural or from anthropogenic causes. Complete necropsies of those carcasses can provide valuable information, particularly for pelagic species, such as Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) and shearwaters, which come to land only to breed and for which information on diseases that may affect them is, therefore, sparse. Between 2000 and 2012, 315 carcasses of four species of Procellariiformes (173 Northern Fulmars, 89 Great Shearwaters [Ardenna gravis], 50 Sooty Shearwaters [Ardenna grisea], and three Cory's Shearwaters [Calonectris diomedea]) were collected on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada, an isolated island near the edge of the continental shelf. A complete necropsy, including examination for the presence of ingested plastic, was performed on all carcasses. Most (70%) of these birds were immature. The cause of death was undetermined in 22% (n=70) of the birds: 36% (62/173) of the Northern Fulmars, 4% (4/89) of the Great Shearwaters, 6% (3/50) of the Sooty Shearwaters, and 33% (1/3) of the Cory's Shearwaters. Emaciation was considered the primary cause of death in 91% of the remaining 245 birds: 87% (97/111) of the Northern Fulmars, 92% (78/85) of the Great Shearwaters, 100% (47/47) of the Sooty Shearwaters, and 100% (2/2) of the Cory's Shearwaters. Notable primary causes of death other than emaciation included mycobacteriosis and neoplasia in Northern Fulmars and transmural parasitic proventriculitis in Great Shearwaters. For Northern Fulmars, nutritional condition (as determined semiquantitatively) was compared with other parameters. Birds in good nutritional condition had heavier body mass and flight muscle mass than those in poor nutritional condition (P<0.01). More adults were in poor nutritional condition than expected by chance (91%; χ2=8.23, P<0.01), whereas only 57% of immature birds were in poor condition. There was no relationship between nutritional condition and sex or mass of ingested plastic. Our study provides information on some previously unsuspected health threats in Procellariiformes.

First days at sea: depicting migration patterns of juvenile seabirds in highly impacted seascapes

Increasing human activities have detrimental consequences on marine ecosystems and their impact can have cumulative effects. Within marine ecosystems, seabirds respond to ecosystem variability and face multiple human pressures, especially threatened species. In long-lived species, juveniles and immatures could represent up to 50% of the total population, but their migratory movements remain largely unknown. Here, we depict the migratory patterns of juvenile Balearic shearwaters Puffinus mauretanicus, the most threatened European seabird, using miniaturised satellite transmitters. At the end of the 2012 breeding season, five tagged juveniles left the breeding colonies of Eivissa Island (western Mediterranean) the first week of July. They moved westwards to reach the Atlantic Ocean between 3 and 13 days afterwards. Juveniles showed a two-phase migratory pattern: they first travelled slower close to the breeding colonies, and then moved towards their wintering areas in the Atlantic Ocean by rapid directional movements. Environmental cues (e.g.,marine productivity, water mass distribution, frontal systems) might have a prominent role in driving the migratory patterns of juvenile Balearic shearwaters, moving from warm and poor marine areas in the Mediterranean Sea to cooler and rich non-breeding grounds in the Atlantic Ocean. Based on observational findings, we observed certain spatial overlap of juvenile Balearic shearwaters with areas of high human impact, but the relationship between flying travel speed and both fishing effort and cumulative human impacts were not statistically significant. These results suggest that more research is needed to assess whether the movement patterns of migrating juveniles are affected by human activities. Therefore, understanding the at-sea spatial ecology of juveniles should be a priority for research and conservation due to the importance of this population component in long-lived species, as well as assessing their vulnerability to multiple anthropogenic pressures.

Citizen science for predicting spatio-temporal patterns in seabird abundance during migration

Pelagic seabirds are elusive species which are difficult to observe, thus determining their spatial distribution during the migration period is a difficult task. Here we undertook the first long-term study on the distribution of migrating shearwaters from data gathered within the framework of citizen science projects. Specifically, we collected daily abundance (only abundance given presence) of Balearic shearwaters from 2005 to 2017 from the online databases Trektellen and eBird. We applied machine-learning techniques, specifically Random Forest regression models, to predict shearwater abundance during migration using 15 environmental predictors. We built separated models for pre-breeding and post-breeding migration. When evaluated for the total data sample, the models explained more than 52% of the variation in shearwater abundance. The models also showed good ability to predict shearwater distributions for both migration periods (correlation between observed and predicted abundance was about 70%). However, relative variable importance and variation among the models built with different training data subsamples differed between migration periods. Our results showed that data gathered in citizen science initiatives together with recently available high-resolution satellite imagery, can be successfully applied to describe the migratory spatio-temporal patterns of seabird species accurately. We show that a predictive modelling approach may offer a powerful and cost-effective tool for the long-term monitoring of the migratory patterns in sensitive marine species, as well as to identify at sea areas relevant for their protection. Modelling approaches can also be essential tools to detect the impacts of climate and other global changes in this and other species within the range of the training data.

Tropical cyclones alter short-term activity patterns of a coastal seabird

BACKGROUND

Mobile organisms in marine environments are expected to modify their behavior in response to external stressors. Among environmental drivers of animal movement are long-term climatic indices influencing organism distribution and short-term meteorological events anticipated to alter acute movement behavior. However, few studies exist documenting the response of vagile species to meteorological anomalies in coastal and marine systems.

METHODS

Here we examined the movements of Eastern brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis carolinensis) in the South Atlantic Bight in response to the passage of three separate hurricane events in 2 years. Pelicans (n = 32) were tracked with GPS satellite transmitters from four colonies in coastal South Carolina, USA, for the entirety of at least one storm event. An Expectation Maximization binary Clustering algorithm was used to discretize pelican behavioral states, which were pooled into 'active' versus 'inactive' states. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess behavioral state probabilities in relation to changes in barometric pressure and wind velocity.

RESULTS

Individual pelicans were more likely to remain inactive during tropical cyclone passage compared to baseline conditions generally, although responses varied by hurricane. When inactive, pelicans tended to seek shelter using local geomorphological features along the coastline such as barrier islands and estuarine systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Our telemetry data showed that large subtropical seabirds such as pelicans may mitigate risk associated with spatially-extensive meteorological events by decreasing daily movements. Sheltering may be related to changes in barometric pressure and wind velocity, and represents a strategy common to several other classes of marine vertebrate predators for increasing survival probabilities.