Mathematical model of plant-virus interactions mediated by RNA interference

Cross-protection, which refers to a process whereby artificially inoculating a plant with a mild strain provides protection against a more aggressive isolate of the virus, is known to be an effective tool of disease control in plants. In this paper we derive and analyse a new mathematical model of the interactions between two competing viruses with particular account for RNA interference. Our results show that co-infection of the host can either increase or decrease the potency of individual infections depending on the levels of cross-protection or cross-enhancement between different viruses. Analytical and numerical bifurcation analyses are employed to investigate the stability of all steady states of the model in order to identify parameter regions where the system exhibits synergistic or antagonistic behaviour between viral strains, as well as different types of host recovery. We show that not only viral attributes but also the propagating component of RNA-interference in plants can play an important role in determining the dynamics.

Modeling two strains of disease via aggregate-level infectivity curves

Well formulated models of disease spread, and efficient methods to fit them to observed data, are powerful tools for aiding the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. Our project considers the problem of the simultaneous spread of two related strains of disease in a context where spatial location is the key driver of disease spread. We start our modeling work with the individual level models (ILMs) of disease transmission, and extend these models to accommodate the competing spread of the pathogens in a two-tier hierarchical population (whose levels we refer to as 'farm' and 'animal'). The postulated interference mechanism between the two strains is a period of cross-immunity following infection. We also present a framework for speeding up the computationally intensive process of fitting the ILM to data, typically done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in a Bayesian framework, by turning the inference into a two-stage process. First, we approximate the number of animals infected on a farm over time by infectivity curves. These curves are fit to data sampled from farms, using maximum likelihood estimation, then, conditional on the fitted curves, Bayesian MCMC inference proceeds for the remaining parameters. Finally, we use posterior predictive distributions of salient epidemic summary statistics, in order to assess the model fitted.

Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics

Over the last years, an intensive worldwide effort is speeding up the developments in the establishment of a global surveillance network for combating pandemics of emergent and re-emergent infectious diseases. Scientists from different fields extending from medicine and molecular biology to computer science and applied mathematics have teamed up for rapid assessment of potentially urgent situations. Toward this aim mathematical modeling plays an important role in efforts that focus on predicting, assessing, and controlling potential outbreaks. To better understand and model the contagious dynamics the impact of numerous variables ranging from the micro host–pathogen level to host-to-host interactions, as well as prevailing ecological, social, economic, and demographic factors across the globe have to be analyzed and thoroughly studied. Here, we present and discuss the main approaches that are used for the surveillance and modeling of infectious disease dynamics. We present the basic concepts underpinning their implementation and practice and for each category we give an annotated list of representative works.

Analytical models approximating individual processes: a validation method

Upscaling population models from fine to coarse resolutions, in space, time and/or level of description, allows the derivation of fast and tractable models based on a thorough knowledge of individual processes. The validity of such approximations is generally tested only on a limited range of parameter sets. A more general validation test, over a range of parameters, is proposed; this would estimate the error induced by the approximation, using the original model's stochastic variability as a reference. This method is illustrated by three examples taken from the field of epidemics transmitted by vectors that bite in a temporally cyclical pattern, that illustrate the use of the method: to estimate if an approximation over- or under-fits the original model; to invalidate an approximation; to rank possible approximations for their qualities. As a result, the application of the validation method to this field emphasizes the need to account for the vectors' biology in epidemic prediction models and to validate these against finer scale models.

Issues of scale and uncertainty in the global remote sensing of disease

Scale and uncertainty are important issues for the global prediction of disease. Disease mapping over the entire surface of the Earth usually involves the use of remotely sensed imagery to provide environmental covariates of disease risk or disease vector density. It further implies that the spatial resolution of such imagery is relatively coarse (e.g., 8 or 1km). Use of a coarse spatial resolution limits the information that can be extracted from imagery and has important effects on the results of epidemiological analyses. This paper discusses geostatistical models for (i) characterizing the scale(s) of spatial variation in data and (ii) changing the scale of measurement of both the data and the geostatistical model. Uncertainty is introduced, highlighting the fact that most epidemiologists are interested in accuracy, aspects of which can be estimated with measurable quantities. This paper emphasizes the distinction between data- and model-based methods of accuracy assessment and gives examples of both. The key problem of validating global maps is considered.

Equation-free multiscale computation: algorithms and applications

In traditional physicochemical modeling, one derives evolution equations at the (macroscopic, coarse) scale of interest; these are used to perform a variety of tasks (simulation, bifurcation analysis, optimization) using an arsenal of analytical and numerical techniques. For many complex systems, however, although one observes evolution at a macroscopic scale of interest, accurate models are only given at a more detailed (fine-scale, microscopic) level of description (e.g., lattice Boltzmann, kinetic Monte Carlo, molecular dynamics). Here, we review a framework for computer-aided multiscale analysis, which enables macroscopic computational tasks (over extended spatiotemporal scales) using only appropriately initialized microscopic simulation on short time and length scales. The methodology bypasses the derivation of macroscopic evolution equations when these equations conceptually exist but are not available in closed form-hence the term equation-free. We selectively discuss basic algorithms and underlying principles and illustrate the approach through representative applications. We also discuss potential difficulties and outline areas for future research.

On state-space reduction in multi-strain pathogen models, with an application to antigenic drift in influenza A

Many pathogens exist in phenotypically distinct strains that interact with each other through competition for hosts. General models that describe such multi-strain systems are extremely difficult to analyze because their state spaces are enormously large. Reduced models have been proposed, but so far all of them necessarily allow for coinfections and require that immunity be mediated solely by reduced infectivity, a potentially problematic assumption. Here, we suggest a new state-space reduction approach that allows immunity to be mediated by either reduced infectivity or reduced susceptibility and that can naturally be used for models with or without coinfections. Our approach utilizes the general framework of status-based models. The cornerstone of our method is the introduction of immunity variables, which describe multi-strain systems more naturally than the traditional tracking of susceptible and infected hosts. Models expressed in this way can be approximated in a natural way by a truncation method that is akin to moment closure, allowing us to sharply reduce the size of the state space, and thus to consider models with many strains in a tractable manner. Applying our method to the phenomenon of antigenic drift in influenza A, we propose a potentially general mechanism that could constrain viral evolution to a one-dimensional manifold in a two-dimensional trait space. Our framework broadens the class of multi-strain systems that can be adequately described by reduced models. It permits computational, and even analytical, investigation and thus serves as a useful tool for understanding the evolution and ecology of multi-strain pathogens.

Many important human pathogens, including HIV and influenza viruses, consist of many different “strains,” which elicit distinct immune responses in their hosts. Infection by one variant usually triggers partial cross-immunity against several other variants. This process leads to a complicated and dynamic immunity structure in the host population. Most existing models of a population with a multi-strain pathogen are either very complex, or rely on specific simplifying assumptions. Here, we suggest a new way of simplifying such models that allows for greater flexibility in underlying assumptions. This approach could lead to deeper understanding of the ecology and evolution of multi-strain pathogens. We apply our approach to a simple model of evolution of influenza A that illustrates one hypothesis about how influenza A evolution may be structured.

Coarse-grained computations for a micellar system

We establish, through coarse-grained computation, a connection between traditional, continuum numerical algorithms (initial value problems as well as fixed point algorithms), and atomistic simulations of the Larson model of micelle formation. The procedure hinges on the (expected) evolution of a few slow, coarse-grained mesoscopic observables of the Monte Carlo simulation, and on (computational) time scale separation between these and the remaining "slaved," fast variables. Short bursts of appropriately initialized atomistic simulation are used to estimate the (coarse grained, deterministic) local dynamics of the evolution of the observables. These estimates are then in turn used to accelerate the evolution to computational stationarity through traditional continuum algorithms (forward Euler integration, Newton-Raphson fixed point computation). This "equation-free" framework, bypassing the derivation of explicit, closed equations for the observables (e.g., equations of state), may provide a computational bridge between direct atomistic/stochastic simulation and the analysis of its macroscopic, system-level consequences.

The SIRC model and influenza A

We develop a simple ordinary differential equation model to study the epidemiological consequences of the drift mechanism for influenza A viruses. Improving over the classical SIR approach, we introduce a fourth class (C) for the cross-immune individuals in the population, i.e., those that recovered after being infected by different strains of the same viral subtype in the past years. The SIRC model predicts that the prevalence of a virus is maximum for an intermediate value of R(0), the basic reproduction number. Via a bifurcation analysis of the model, we discuss the effect of seasonality on the epidemiological regimes. For realistic parameter values, the model exhibits a rich variety of behaviors, including chaos and multi-stable periodic outbreaks. Comparison with empirical evidence shows that the simulated regimes are qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with reality, both for tropical and temperate countries. We find that the basins of attraction of coexisting cycles can be fractal sets, thus predictability can in some cases become problematic even theoretically. In accordance with previous studies, we find that increasing cross-immunity tends to complicate the dynamics of the system.