Placing limits on long-term variations in quiet-Sun irradiance and their contribution to total solar irradiance and solar radiative forcing of climate

Recent reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) postulate that quiet-Sun variations could give significant changes to the solar power input to Earth's climate (radiative climate forcings of 0.7-1.1 W m^-2 over 1700-2019) arising from changes in quiet-Sun magnetic fields that have not, as yet, been observed. Reconstructions without such changes yield solar forcings that are smaller by a factor of more than 10. We study the quiet-Sun TSI since 1995 for three reasons: (i) this interval shows rapid decay in average solar activity following the grand solar maximum in 1985 (such that activity in 2019 was broadly equivalent to that in 1900); (ii) there is improved consensus between TSI observations; and (iii) it contains the first modelling of TSI that is independent of the observations. Our analysis shows that the most likely upward drift in quiet-Sun radiative forcing since 1700 is between +0.07 and -0.13 W m^-2. Hence, we cannot yet discriminate between the quiet-Sun TSI being enhanced or reduced during the Maunder and Dalton sunspot minima, although there is a growing consensus from the combinations of models and observations that it was slightly enhanced. We present reconstructions that add quiet-Sun TSI and its uncertainty to models that reconstruct the effects of sunspots and faculae.

Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum

Solar outputs during the current solar minimum are setting record low values for the space age. Evidence is here reviewed that this is part of a decline in solar activity from a grand solar maximum and that the Sun has returned to a state that last prevailed in 1924. Recent research into what this means, and does not mean, for climate change is reviewed.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is −1.3% and the 2 σ confidence level sets the uncertainty range of −0.7 to −1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2 σ confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.