Predicting population extinction in lattice-based birth-death-movement models

Interpreting how nonlinear diffusion affects the fate of bistable populations using a discrete modelling framework

Understanding whether a population will survive or become extinct is a central question in population biology. One way of exploring this question is to study population dynamics using reaction–diffusion equations, where migration is usually represented as a linear diffusion term, and birth–death is represented with a nonlinear source term. While linear diffusion is most commonly employed to study migration, there are several limitations of this approach, such as the inability of linear diffusion-based models to predict a well-defined population front. One way to overcome this is to generalize the constant diffusivity, D, to a nonlinear diffusivity function D(C), where C>0 is the population density. While the choice of D(C) affects long-term survival or extinction of a bistable population, working solely in a continuum framework makes it difficult to understand how the choice of D(C) affects survival or extinction. We address this question by working with a discrete simulation model that is easy to interpret. This approach provides clear insight into how the choice of D(C) either encourages or suppresses population extinction relative to the classical linear diffusion model.

Understanding nano-engineered particle-cell interactions: biological insights from mathematical models

Understanding the interactions between nano-engineered particles and cells is necessary for the rational design of particles for therapeutic, diagnostic and imaging purposes. In particular, the informed design of particles relies on the quantification of the relationship between the physicochemical properties of the particles and the rate at which cells interact with, and subsequently internalise, particles. Quantitative models, both mathematical and computational, provide a powerful tool for elucidating this relationship, as well as for understanding the mechanisms governing the intertwined processes of interaction and internalisation. Here we review the different types of mathematical and computational models that have been used to examine particle-cell interactions and particle internalisation. We detail the mathematical methodology for each type of model, the benefits and limitations associated with the different types of models, and highlight the advances in understanding gleaned from the application of these models to experimental observations of particle internalisation. We discuss the recent proposal and ongoing community adoption of standardised experimental reporting, and how this adoption is an important step toward unlocking the full potential of modelling approaches. Finally, we consider future directions in quantitative models of particle-cell interactions and highlight the need for hybrid experimental and theoretical investigations to address hitherto unanswered questions.

Population dynamics with spatial structure and an Allee effect

Population dynamics including a strong Allee effect describe the situation where long-term population survival or extinction depends on the initial population density. A simple mathematical model of an Allee effect is one where initial densities below the threshold lead to extinction, whereas initial densities above the threshold lead to survival. Mean-field models of population dynamics neglect spatial structure that can arise through short-range interactions, such as competition and dispersal. The influence of non-mean-field effects has not been studied in the presence of an Allee effect. To address this, we develop an individual-based model that incorporates both short-range interactions and an Allee effect. To explore the role of spatial structure we derive a mathematically tractable continuum approximation of the IBM in terms of the dynamics of spatial moments. In the limit of long-range interactions where the mean-field approximation holds, our modelling framework recovers the mean-field Allee threshold. We show that the Allee threshold is sensitive to spatial structure neglected by mean-field models. For example, there are cases where the mean-field model predicts extinction but the population actually survives. Through simulations we show that our new spatial moment dynamics model accurately captures the modified Allee threshold in the presence of spatial structure.