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García-Carreras B, Yang B, Grabowski MK, Sheppard LW, Huang AT, Salje H, Clapham HE, Iamsirithaworn S, Doung-Ngern P, Lessler J, Cummings DAT. Periodic synchronisation of dengue epidemics in Thailand over the last 5 decades driven by temperature and immunity. PLoS Biol 2022; 20:e3001160. [PMID: 35302985 PMCID: PMC8967062 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, less work has been done to understand how climate variability and change affects dengue in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the waxing and waning of immunity has a large impact on temporal dynamics of cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever. Here, we use 51 years of data across 72 provinces and characterise spatiotemporal patterns of dengue in Thailand, where dengue has caused almost 1.5 million cases over the last 30 years, and examine the roles played by temperature and dynamics of immunity in giving rise to those patterns. We find that timescales of multiannual oscillations in dengue vary in space and time and uncover an interesting spatial phenomenon: Thailand has experienced multiple, periodic synchronisation events. We show that although patterns in synchrony of dengue are similar to those observed in temperature, the relationship between the two is most consistent during synchronous periods, while during asynchronous periods, temperature plays a less prominent role. With simulations from temperature-driven models, we explore how dynamics of immunity interact with temperature to produce the observed patterns in synchrony. The simulations produced patterns in synchrony that were similar to observations, supporting an important role of immunity. We demonstrate that multiannual oscillations produced by immunity can lead to asynchronous dynamics and that synchrony in temperature can then synchronise these dengue dynamics. At higher mean temperatures, immune dynamics can be more predominant, and dengue dynamics more insensitive to multiannual fluctuations in temperature, suggesting that with rising mean temperatures, dengue dynamics may become increasingly asynchronous. These findings can help underpin predictions of disease patterns as global temperatures rise. This study shows that spatially large-scale shifts in temperature can synchronize dengue dynamics across Thailand; however, as average temperatures rise, dengue dynamics may increasingly be dictated by dynamics of immunity, which may in turn mean fewer synchronous outbreaks in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo García-Carreras
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Bingyi Yang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Mary K. Grabowski
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Lawrence W. Sheppard
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
- The Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, United Kingdom
| | - Angkana T. Huang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Hannah Eleanor Clapham
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Pawinee Doung-Ngern
- Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Derek A. T. Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
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Yang Y, Hui C. How competitive intransitivity and niche overlap affect spatial coexistence. OIKOS 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.07735] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Yinghui Yang
- School of Mathematics, Southwest Jiaotong Univ. Chengdu China
| | - Cang Hui
- Centre for Invasion Biology, Dept of Mathematical Sciences, Stellenbosch Univ. Matieland South Africa
- Biodiversity Informatics Unit, African Inst. for Mathematical Sciences Cape Town South Africa
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Petrovskii S, Petrovskaya N, Bearup D. Multiscale approach to pest insect monitoring: Random walks, pattern formation, synchronization, and networks. Phys Life Rev 2014; 11:467-525. [DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2014.02.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2013] [Accepted: 02/04/2014] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Fox JW, Legault G, Vasseur DA, Einarson JA. Nonlinear effect of dispersal rate on spatial synchrony of predator-prey cycles. PLoS One 2013; 8:e79527. [PMID: 24244520 PMCID: PMC3823609 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0079527] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2013] [Accepted: 10/02/2013] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatially-separated populations often exhibit positively correlated fluctuations in abundance and other population variables, a phenomenon known as spatial synchrony. Generation and maintenance of synchrony requires forces that rapidly restore synchrony in the face of desynchronizing forces such as demographic and environmental stochasticity. One such force is dispersal, which couples local populations together, thereby synchronizing them. Theory predicts that average spatial synchrony can be a nonlinear function of dispersal rate, but the form of the dispersal rate-synchrony relationship has never been quantified for any system. Theory also predicts that in the presence of demographic and environmental stochasticity, realized levels of synchrony can exhibit high variability around the average, so that ecologically-identical metapopulations might exhibit very different levels of synchrony. We quantified the dispersal rate-synchrony relationship using a model system of protist predator-prey cycles in pairs of laboratory microcosms linked by different rates of dispersal. Paired predator-prey cycles initially were anti-synchronous, and were subject to demographic stochasticity and spatially-uncorrelated temperature fluctuations, challenging the ability of dispersal to rapidly synchronize them. Mean synchrony of prey cycles was a nonlinear, saturating function of dispersal rate. Even extremely low rates of dispersal (<0.4% per prey generation) were capable of rapidly bringing initially anti-synchronous cycles into synchrony. Consistent with theory, ecologically-identical replicates exhibited very different levels of prey synchrony, especially at low to intermediate dispersal rates. Our results suggest that even the very low rates of dispersal observed in many natural systems are sufficient to generate and maintain synchrony of cyclic population dynamics, at least when environments are not too spatially heterogeneous.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy W. Fox
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Geoff Legault
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - David A. Vasseur
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Jodie A. Einarson
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
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Xavier JB, Martinez-Garcia E, Foster KR. Social evolution of spatial patterns in bacterial biofilms: when conflict drives disorder. Am Nat 2009; 174:1-12. [PMID: 19456262 DOI: 10.1086/599297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
A key feature of biological systems is the emergence of higher-order structures from interacting units, such as the development of tissues from individual cells and the elaborate divisions of labor in insect societies. Little is known, however, of how evolutionary competition among individuals affects biological organization. Here we explore this link in bacterial biofilms, concrete systems that are well known for higher-order structures. We present a mechanistic model of cell growth at a surface, and we show that tension between growth and competition for nutrients can explain how empirically observed patterns emerge in biofilms. We then apply our model to evolutionary simulations and observe that the maintenance of patterns requires cooperation between cells. Specifically, when different genotypes meet and compete, natural selection favors energetically costly spreading strategies, like polymer secretion, that simultaneously reduce productivity and disrupt the spatial patterns. Our theory provides a formal link between higher-level patterning and the potential for evolutionary conflict by showing that both can arise from a single set of scale-dependent processes. Moreover, and contrary to previous theory, our analysis predicts an antagonistic relationship between evolutionary conflict and pattern formation: conflict drives disorder.
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Affiliation(s)
- João B Xavier
- Center for Systems Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA.
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Bierman SM, Fairbairn JP, Petty SJ, Elston DA, Tidhar D, Lambin X. Changes over time in the spatiotemporal dynamics of cyclic populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis L.). Am Nat 2006; 167:583-90. [PMID: 16671000 DOI: 10.1086/501076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2005] [Accepted: 12/20/2005] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
We demonstrate changes over time in the spatial and temporal dynamics of an herbivorous small rodent by analyzing time series of population densities obtained at 21 locations on clear cuts within a coniferous forest in Britain from 1984 to 2004. Changes had taken place in the amplitude, periodicity, and synchrony of cycles and density-dependent feedback on population growth rates. Evidence for the presence of a unidirectional traveling wave in rodent abundance was strong near the beginning of the study but had disappeared near the end. This study provides empirical support for the hypothesis that the temporal (such as delayed density dependence structure) and spatial (such as traveling waves) dynamics of cyclic populations are closely linked. The changes in dynamics were markedly season specific, and changes in overwintering dynamics were most pronounced. Climatic changes, resulting in a less seasonal environment with shorter winters near the end of the study, are likely to have caused the changes in vole dynamics. Similar changes in rodent dynamics and the climate as reported from Fennoscandia indicate the involvement of large-scale climatic variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stijn M Bierman
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, University of Edinburgh, James Clerk Maxwell Building, King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, United Kingdom.
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Liebhold A, Koenig WD, Bjørnstad ON. Spatial Synchrony in Population Dynamics. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS 2004. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.34.011802.132516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 651] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Liebhold
- Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Morgantown, West Virginia 26505;
| | - Walter D. Koenig
- Hastings Reservation, University of California, Berkeley, Carmel Valley, California 93924;
| | - Ottar N. Bjørnstad
- Departments of Entomology and Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802;
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