1
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Ozgul A, Fichtel C, Paniw M, Kappeler PM. Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2214244120. [PMID: 36972440 PMCID: PMC10083614 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214244120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 02/15/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Seasonal tropical environments are among those regions that are the most affected by shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes under climate change, with potentially severe consequences for wildlife population persistence. This persistence is ultimately determined by complex demographic responses to multiple climatic drivers, yet these complexities have been little explored in tropical mammals. We use long-term, individual-based demographic data (1994 to 2020) from a short-lived primate in western Madagascar, the gray mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus), to investigate the demographic drivers of population persistence under observed shifts in seasonal temperature and rainfall. While rainfall during the wet season has been declining over the years, dry season temperatures have been increasing, with these trends projected to continue. These environmental changes resulted in lower survival and higher recruitment rates over time for gray mouse lemurs. Although the contrasting changes have prevented the study population from collapsing, the resulting increase in life-history speed has destabilized an otherwise stable population. Population projections under more recent rainfall and temperature levels predict an increase in population fluctuations and a corresponding increase in the extinction risk over the next five decades. Our analyses show that a relatively short-lived mammal with high reproductive output, representing a life history that is expected to closely track changes in its environment, can nonetheless be threatened by climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arpat Ozgul
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich,8057Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Claudia Fichtel
- Behavioural Ecology and Sociobiology Unit, German Primate Center, Leibniz Institute for Primate Research,37077Göttingen, Germany
| | - Maria Paniw
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich,8057Zurich, Switzerland
- Department of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Seville41001, Spain
| | - Peter M. Kappeler
- Behavioural Ecology and Sociobiology Unit, German Primate Center, Leibniz Institute for Primate Research,37077Göttingen, Germany
- Department of Sociobiology/Anthropology, Johann-Friedrich-Blumenbach Institute of Zoology and Anthropology, University of Göttingen,37077Göttingen, Germany
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2
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Paniw M, García-Callejas D, Lloret F, Bassar RD, Travis J, Godoy O. Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity: new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions. Proc Biol Sci 2023; 290:20221494. [PMID: 36809806 PMCID: PMC9943645 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.1494] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/23/2023] Open
Abstract
In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting-but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Paniw
- Department of Conservation Biology and Global Change, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Seville, 41001 Spain.,Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich 8057, Switzerland
| | - David García-Callejas
- Department of Integrative Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Seville, 41001 Spain.,Instituto Universitario de Investigación Marina (INMAR), Departamento de Biología, Universidad de Cádiz, Campus Río San Pedro, 11510 Puerto Real, Spain
| | - Francisco Lloret
- Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Spain.,Department Animal Biology, Plant Biology and Ecology, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Spain
| | - Ronald D Bassar
- Department of Biological Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
| | - Joseph Travis
- Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
| | - Oscar Godoy
- Instituto Universitario de Investigación Marina (INMAR), Departamento de Biología, Universidad de Cádiz, Campus Río San Pedro, 11510 Puerto Real, Spain
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3
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Park JS, Wootton JT. Slower environmental cycles maintain greater life-history variation within populations. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:2452-2463. [PMID: 34474507 PMCID: PMC9292183 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2021] [Revised: 05/26/2021] [Accepted: 08/04/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Populations in nature are comprised of individual life histories, whose variation underpins ecological and evolutionary processes. Yet the forces of environmental selection that shape intrapopulation life-history variation are still not well-understood, and efforts have largely focused on random (stochastic) fluctuations of the environment. However, a ubiquitous mode of environmental fluctuation in nature is cyclical, whose periodicities can change independently of stochasticity. Here, we test theoretically based hypotheses for whether shortened ('Fast') or lengthened ('Slow') environmental cycles should generate higher intrapopulation variation of life history phenotypes. We show, through a combination of agent-based modelling and a multi-generational laboratory selection experiment using the tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus, that slower environmental cycles maintain higher levels of intrapopulation variation. Surprisingly, the effect of environmental periodicity on variation was much stronger than that of stochasticity. Thus, our results show that periodicity is an important facet of fluctuating environments for life-history variation.
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Affiliation(s)
- John S Park
- Committee on Evolutionary Biology, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - J Timothy Wootton
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
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4
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Schreiber SJ. Positively and Negatively Autocorrelated Environmental Fluctuations Have Opposing Effects on Species Coexistence. Am Nat 2021; 197:405-414. [PMID: 33755535 DOI: 10.1086/713066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
AbstractEnvironmental fluctuations can mediate coexistence between competing species via the storage effect. This fluctuation-dependent coexistence mechanism requires three conditions: (i) there is a positive covariance between species responses to environmental conditions and the strength of competition, (ii) there are species-specific environmental responses, and (iii) species are less sensitive to competition in environmentally unfavorable years. In serially uncorrelated environments, condition (i) occurs only if favorable environmental conditions immediately and directly increase the strength of competition. For many demographic parameters, this direct link between favorable years and competition may not exist. Moreover, many environmental variables are temporal autocorrelated, but theory has largely focused on serially uncorrelated environments. To address this gap, a model of competing species in autocorrelated environments is analyzed. This analysis shows that positive autocorrelations in demographic rates that increase fitness (e.g., maximal fecundity or adult survival) produce the positive environment-competition covariance in condition (i). Hence, when these demographic rates contribute to buffered population growth, positive temporal autocorrelations generate a storage effect; otherwise, they destabilize competitive interactions. For negatively autocorrelated environments, this theory highlights an alternative stabilizing mechanism that requires three conditions: (i') there is a negative environment-competition covariance, (ii) there are species-specific environmental responses, and (iii') species are less sensitive to competition in more favorable years. When the conditions for either of these stabilizing mechanisms are violated, temporal autocorrelations can generate stochastic priority effects or hasten competitive exclusion. Collectively, these results highlight that temporal autocorrelations in environmental conditions can play a fundamental role in determining ecological outcomes of competing species.
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5
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Hämäläinen AM, Guenther A, Patrick SC, Schuett W. Environmental effects on the covariation among pace‐of‐life traits. Ethology 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/eth.13098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Anni M. Hämäläinen
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
- Institute of Environmental Science Jagiellonian University Kraków Poland
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylä Finland
| | - Anja Guenther
- Department of Evolutionary Biology Bielefeld University Bielefeld Germany
- Department of Evolutionary Genetics Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology Plön Germany
| | | | - Wiebke Schuett
- Institute of Zoology Universität Hamburg Hamburg Germany
- School of Life Sciences University of Sussex Brighton UK
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6
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Touzot L, Schermer É, Venner S, Delzon S, Rousset C, Baubet É, Gaillard JM, Gamelon M. How does increasing mast seeding frequency affect population dynamics of seed consumers? Wild boar as a case study. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02134. [PMID: 32299142 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2019] [Revised: 02/10/2020] [Accepted: 02/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Mast seeding in temperate oak populations shapes the dynamics of seed consumers and numerous communities. Mast seeding responds positively to warm spring temperatures and is therefore expected to increase under global warming. We investigated the potential effects of changes in oak mast seeding on wild boar population dynamics, a widespread and abundant consumer species. Using long-term monitoring data, we showed that abundant acorn production enhances the proportion of breeding females. With a body-mass-structured population model and a fixed hunting rate of 0.424, we showed that high acorn production over time would lead to an average wild boar population growth rate of 1.197 whereas non-acorn production would lead to a stable population. Finally, using climate projections and a mechanistic model linking weather data to oak reproduction, we predicted that mast seeding frequency might increase over the next century, which would lead to increase in both wild boar population size and the magnitude of its temporal variation. Our study provides rare evidence that some species could greatly benefit from global warming thanks to higher food availability and therefore highlights the importance of investigating the cascading effects of changing weather conditions on the dynamics of wild animal populations to reliably assess the effects of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Touzot
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, F-69622, France
| | - Éliane Schermer
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, F-69622, France
| | - Samuel Venner
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, F-69622, France
| | | | - Cyril Rousset
- Direction de la Recherche et de l'Appui Scientifique - Unité Ongulés Sauvages, Office Français de la Biodiversité, 2 bis rue des Religieuses, Châteauvillain, 52120, France
| | - Éric Baubet
- Direction de la Recherche et de l'Appui Scientifique - Unité Ongulés Sauvages, Office Français de la Biodiversité, Birieux, 01330, France
| | - Jean-Michel Gaillard
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, F-69622, France
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway
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7
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Park JS. Cyclical environments drive variation in life-history strategies: a general theory of cyclical phenology. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 286:20190214. [PMID: 30862286 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2019.0214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Cycles, such as seasons or tides, characterize many systems in nature. Overwhelming evidence shows that climate change-driven alterations to environmental cycles-such as longer seasons-are associated with phenological shifts around the world, suggesting a deep link between environmental cycles and life cycles. However, general mechanisms of life-history evolution in cyclical environments are still not well understood. Here, I build a demographic framework and ask how life-history strategies optimize fitness when the environment perturbs a structured population cyclically and how strategies should change as cyclicality changes. I show that cycle periodicity alters optimality predictions of classic life-history theory because repeated cycles have rippling selective consequences over time and generations. Notably, fitness landscapes that relate environmental cyclicality and life-history optimality vary dramatically depending on which trade-offs govern a given species. The model tuned with known life-history trade-offs in a marine intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus successfully predicted the shape of life-history variation across natural populations spanning a gradient of tidal periodicities. This framework shows how environmental cycles can drive life-history variation-without complex assumptions of individual responses to cues such as temperature-thus expanding the range of life-history diversity explained by theory and providing a basis for adaptive phenology.
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Affiliation(s)
- John S Park
- Committee on Evolutionary Biology, University of Chicago , 1025 E. 57th Street, Culver Hall 402, Chicago, IL 60637 , USA
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8
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Postuma M, Schmid M, Guillaume F, Ozgul A, Paniw M. The effect of temporal environmental autocorrelation on eco‐evolutionary dynamics across life histories. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Maarten Postuma
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Zurich 8057 Switzerland
- Department of Animal Ecology & Physiology Radboud University Nijmegen The Netherlands
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group Wageningen University Wageningen 6700 AA The Netherlands
| | - Max Schmid
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Zurich 8057 Switzerland
| | - Frédéric Guillaume
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Zurich 8057 Switzerland
| | - Arpat Ozgul
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Zurich 8057 Switzerland
| | - Maria Paniw
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Zurich 8057 Switzerland
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF) Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C Cerdanyola del Valles ES‐08193 Spain
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9
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Kortessis N, Chesson P. Germination variation facilitates the evolution of seed dormancy when coupled with seedling competition. Theor Popul Biol 2019; 130:60-73. [PMID: 31605705 DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2019.09.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2019] [Revised: 09/22/2019] [Accepted: 09/23/2019] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
Fluctuating environmental conditions have consequences for the evolution of life histories because they cause fitness variance. This variance can favor risk-spreading strategies, often known as bet-hedging strategies, in which growth or reproduction is spread over time or space, with some costs, but greater certainty of success. An important example is seed dormancy in annual plants, in which some fraction of seed remains dormant at any given germination opportunity with the potential of germinating later when environmental conditions may differ. Previous theory shows that environmental variation is critical for the evolution of dormancy. However, these studies have focused on temporal variation in reproduction, ignoring the strong observed effects of environmental variation on the germination fraction, a major contributor to fitness variance. We ask what effects germination fluctuations have on selection for dormancy by adding germination fluctuations to existing density-independent (d.i.) and density-dependent (d.d.) models of annual plant dynamics, extending previous analyses by including temporally fluctuating germination. Specifically, we ask how germination variance affects selection on the temporal average germination fraction, here used to define dormancy. When present alone, or when independently varying with other fitness components, germination fluctuations do not affect selection for dormancy in the d.i. model, despite generating fitness variance because this variance contribution is not reduced by higher dormancy. Germination fluctuations have strong effects in the d.d. model, favoring dormancy when present either alone or coupled with variation affecting plant growth. This is because germination variation causes seedling density to vary, which causes variable reproduction through variable intraspecific competition. Dormancy is advantaged under variable reproduction because it creates a more convex relationship between population growth and reproduction leading to benefits from nonlinear averaging. Predictive germination, a positive statistical association between germination and growth, weakens selection for dormancy under strong competition and strengthens it when competition is weak. Our results suggest that variable germination is a potential explanation for high levels of dormancy observed in nature, with implications for life-history theory for fluctuating environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas Kortessis
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
| | - Peter Chesson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
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10
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Smallegange IM, Berg MP. A functional trait approach to identifying life history patterns in stochastic environments. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:9350-9361. [PMID: 31463026 PMCID: PMC6706206 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2019] [Revised: 07/04/2019] [Accepted: 07/05/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Temporal variation in demographic processes can greatly impact population dynamics. Perturbations of statistical coefficients that describe demographic rates within matrix models have, for example, revealed that stochastic population growth rates (log(λ s)) of fast life histories are more sensitive to temporal autocorrelation of environmental conditions than those of slow life histories. Yet, we know little about the mechanisms that drive such patterns. Here, we used a mechanistic, functional trait approach to examine the functional pathways by which a typical fast life history species, the macrodetrivore Orchestia gammarellus, and a typical slow life history species, the reef manta ray Manta alfredi, differ in their sensitivity to environmental autocorrelation if (a) growth and reproduction are described mechanistically by functional traits that adhere to the principle of energy conservation, and if (b) demographic variation is determined by temporal autocorrelation in food conditions. Opposite to previous findings, we found that O. gammarellus log(λ s) was most sensitive to the frequency of good food conditions, likely because reproduction traits, which directly impact population growth, were most influential to log(λ s). Manta alfredi log(λs ) was instead most sensitive to temporal autocorrelation, likely because growth parameters, which impact population growth indirectly, were most influential to log(λ s). This differential sensitivity to functional traits likely also explains why we found that O. gammarellus mean body size decreased (due to increased reproduction) but M. alfredi mean body size increased (due to increased individual growth) as food conditions became more favorable. Increasing demographic stochasticity under constant food conditions decreased O. gammarellus mean body size and increased log(λ s) due to increased reproduction, whereas M. alfredi mean body and log(λ s) decreased, likely due to decreased individual growth. Our findings signify the importance of integrating functional traits into demographic models as this provides mechanistic understanding of how environmental and demographic stochasticity affects population dynamics in stochastic environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabel M. Smallegange
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED)University of AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Matty P. Berg
- Department of Ecological Science, Section of Animal EcologyVrije UniversiteitAmsterdamThe Netherlands
- Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, Community and Conservation Ecology GroupRijksuniversiteit GroningenGroningenThe Netherlands
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11
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Paterson JT, Rotella JJ, Link WA, Garrott R. Variation in the vital rates of an Antarctic marine predator: the role of individual heterogeneity. Ecology 2018; 99:2385-2396. [PMID: 30277558 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2018] [Revised: 06/15/2018] [Accepted: 07/05/2018] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
Variation in life-history traits such as lifespan and lifetime reproductive output is thought to arise, in part, due to among-individual differences in the underlying probabilities of survival and reproduction. However, the stochastic nature of demographic processes can also generate considerable variation in fitness-related traits among otherwise-identical individuals. An improved understanding of life-history evolution and population dynamics therefore depends on evaluating the relative role of each of these processes. Here, we used a 33-yr data set with reproductive histories for 1,274 female Weddell seals from Erebus Bay, Antarctica, to assess the strength of evidence for among-individual heterogeneity in the probabilities of survival and reproduction, while accounting for multiple other sources of variation in vital rates. Our analysis used recent advances in Bayesian model selection techniques and diagnostics to directly compare model fit and predictive power between models that included individual effects on survival and reproduction to those that did not. We found strong evidence for costs of reproduction to both survival and future reproduction, with breeders having rates of survival and subsequent reproduction that were 3% and 6% lower than rates for non-breeders. We detected age-related changes in the rates of survival and reproduction, but the patterns differed for the two rates. Survival rates steadily declined from 0.92 at age 7 to 0.56 at the maximal age of 31 yr. In contrast, reproductive rates increased from 0.68 at age 7 to 0.79 at age 16 and then steadily declined to 0.37 for the oldest females. Models that included individual effects explained more variation in observed life histories and had better estimated predictive power than those that did not, indicating their importance in understanding sources of variation among individuals in life-history traits. We found that among-individual heterogeneity in survival was small relative to that for reproduction. Our study, which found patterns of variation in vital rates that are consistent with a series of predictions from life-history theory, is the first to provide a thorough assessment of variation in important vital rates for a long-lived, high-latitude marine mammal while taking full advantage of recent developments in model evaluation.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Terrill Paterson
- Ecology Department, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, 59717, USA
| | - Jay J Rotella
- Ecology Department, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, 59717, USA
| | - William A Link
- U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, Maryland, 20708, USA
| | - Robert Garrott
- Ecology Department, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, 59717, USA
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12
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Wieczynski DJ, Turner PE, Vasseur DA. Temporally Autocorrelated Environmental Fluctuations Inhibit the Evolution of Stress Tolerance. Am Nat 2018; 191:E195-E207. [PMID: 29750560 DOI: 10.1086/697200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
As global environmental conditions continue to change at an unprecedented rate, many species will experience increases in natural and anthropogenic stress. Generally speaking, selection is expected to favor adaptations that reduce the negative impact of environmental stress (i.e., stress tolerance). However, natural environmental variables typically fluctuate, exhibiting various degrees of temporal autocorrelation, known as environmental colors, which may complicate evolutionary responses to stress. Here we combine experiments and theory to show that temporal environmental autocorrelation can determine long-term evolutionary responses to stress without affecting the total amount of stress experienced over time. Experimental evolution of RNA virus lineages in differing environmental autocorrelation treatments agreed closely with predictions from our theoretical models that stress tolerance is favored in less autocorrelated (whiter) environments but disfavored in more autocorrelated (redder) environments. This is explained by an interaction between environmental autocorrelation and a phenotypic trade-off between stress tolerance and reproductive ability. The degree to which environmental autocorrelation influences evolutionary trajectories depends on the shape of this trade-off as well as the relative level of tolerance exhibited by novel mutants. These results suggest that long-term evolutionary dynamics depend not only on the overall strength of selection but also on the way that selection is distributed over time.
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13
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Paniw M, Ozgul A, Salguero‐Gómez R. Interactive life‐history traits predict sensitivity of plants and animals to temporal autocorrelation. Ecol Lett 2017; 21:275-286. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2017] [Revised: 10/04/2017] [Accepted: 11/09/2017] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Maria Paniw
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Zurich8057 Switzerland
- Department Biology University of Cadiz Puerto Real 11510 Spain
| | - Arpat Ozgul
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Zurich8057 Switzerland
| | - Roberto Salguero‐Gómez
- Department of Zoology Oxford University New Radcliffe House Radcliffe Observatory Quarter Woodstock Rd OxfordOX2 6GGUK
- Department of Animal & Plant Sciences University of Sheffield Alfred Denny Building, Western Bank SheffieldS10 2TN UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science University of Queensland St Lucia4071 Qld. Australia
- Evolutionary Demography Laboratory Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research Rostock18057 Germany
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14
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Wieczynski DJ, Vasseur DA. Environmental fluctuations promote intraspecific diversity and population persistence via inflationary effects. OIKOS 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.02725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J. Wieczynski
- Dept of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Yale University 165 Prospect St. New Haven CT 06520 USA
| | - David A. Vasseur
- Dept of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Yale University 165 Prospect St. New Haven CT 06520 USA
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15
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Gremer JR, Venable DL. Bet hedging in desert winter annual plants: optimal germination strategies in a variable environment. Ecol Lett 2014; 17:380-7. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 204] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2013] [Revised: 11/11/2013] [Accepted: 11/28/2013] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer R. Gremer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Arizona; Tucson AZ 85721 USA
| | - D. Lawrence Venable
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Arizona; Tucson AZ 85721 USA
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16
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Atkinson RRL, Burrell MM, Osborne CP, Rose KE, Rees M. A non-targeted metabolomics approach to quantifying differences in root storage between fast- and slow-growing plants. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2012; 196:200-211. [PMID: 22924406 DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04274.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Life history theory posits that slower-growing species should invest proportionally more resources to storage, structural (e.g. stems) or defence traits than fast-growing species. Previously, we showed that the slower-growing monocarpic plants had lower mortality rates and higher bolting probabilities after two defoliation events. Here, we consider a mechanistic explanation, that the slower-growing species invested relatively more resources to storage. We compared the relative levels of root storage compounds between eight monocarpic species using metabolomic profiling, and characterized plant growth using a size-corrected estimate of relative growth rate (RGR). Growth rate was negatively correlated with the proportional allocation of root metabolites identified as sucrose, raffinose and stachyose and with amino acids known for their roles in nitrogen storage, particularly proline and arginine. The total amount and concentration of energy-corrected carbohydrates were also negatively correlated with RGR. Our results show for the first time that slower-growing species invest proportionally more of their total root metabolites in carbon- and nitrogen-storage compounds. We conclude that the increased investment in these reserves is an important resource allocation strategy underlying the growth-survival trade-off in plants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca R L Atkinson
- Department of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Mike M Burrell
- Department of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Colin P Osborne
- Department of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Karen E Rose
- Department of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Mark Rees
- Department of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
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17
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Demographic concepts and research pertaining to the study of wild primate populations. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL ANTHROPOLOGY 2011; 146 Suppl 53:63-85. [DOI: 10.1002/ajpa.21611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
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18
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Abstract
Abstract. If genetically distinct morphs coexist under a range of natural conditions, they should have equal long-run fitnesses across a wide range of different stochastic environments. In other words, the sequence and frequency of good and bad environments should not substantially impact long-run growth rates. When different morphs have contrasting life histories that vary with environmental conditions, however, it seems improbable that growth rates can be equivalent across a range of stochastic environments without invoking a strong stabilizing mechanism to explain their persistence. As yet, there has been no research characterizing the long-run stochastic growth rate (lambdaS) of different morphs across a wide range of stochastic environments. Assuming density independence, we show that the two genetic male morphs in the bulb mite (Rhizoglyphus robini-fighters, which are able to kill other mites, and benign scramblers-have similar lambdas in different Markovian environments (different simulated random sequences of good and bad habitats). Elasticity analyses revealed that Xs was most sensitive to perturbation of adult survival rate. A slight (biologically and statistically realistic) increase in scrambler adult survival equalized scrambler and fighter X,. The fitness equivalence of the two morphs suggests that stabilizing mechanisms, such as density or frequency dependence, required to maintain their coexistence, are weak. We advocate that stochastic demography can offer a powerful approach to identify and understand the circumstances under which genetic polymorphisms can be maintained in stochastic environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabel M Smallegange
- Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY United Kingdom.
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19
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Buoro M, Prévost E, Gimenez O. Investigating evolutionary trade-offs in wild populations of atlantic salmon (salmo salar): incorporating detection probabilities and individual heterogeneity. Evolution 2011; 64:2629-42. [PMID: 20482614 DOI: 10.1111/j.1558-5646.2010.01029.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Evolutionary trade-offs among demographic parameters are important determinants of life-history evolution. Investigating such trade-offs under natural conditions has been limited by inappropriate analytical methods that fail to address the bias in demographic estimates that can result when issues of detection (uncertain detection of individual) are ignored. We propose a new statistical approach to quantify evolutionary trade-offs in wild populations. Our method is based on a state-space modeling framework that focuses on both the demographic process of interest as well as the observation process. As a case study, we used individual mark-recapture data for stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon juveniles in the Scorff River (Southern Brittany, France). In freshwater, juveniles face two life-history choices: migration to the ocean and sexual maturation (for males). Trade-offs may appear with these life-history choices and survival, because all are energy dependent. We found a cost of reproduction on survival for fish staying in freshwater and a survival advantage associated with the "decision" to migrate. Our modeling framework opens up promising prospects for the study of evolutionary trade-offs when some life-history traits are not, or only partially, observable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Buoro
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, campus CNRS, UMR 5175, 1919 Route de Mende, Montpellier Cedex 5, France.
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20
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Ezard TH, Coulson T. How sensitive are elasticities of long-run stochastic growth to how environmental variability is modelled? Ecol Modell 2010. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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21
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Aubry LM, Koons DN, Monnat JY, Cam E. Consequences of recruitment decisions and heterogeneity on age-specific breeding success in a long-lived seabird. Ecology 2009; 90:2491-502. [PMID: 19769127 DOI: 10.1890/08-1475.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
An individual's age at first reproduction and investment in successive reproductive attempts are involved in mechanisms that can impede somatic repair, resulting in a decline in reproductive abilities with age (reproductive senescence). We used long-term data from the Black-legged Kittiwake, a long-lived seabird, to address the relationship between recruitment age, age-specific breeding success (BS), and reproductive senescence, while accounting for breeding experience and temporal variation in BS. We first detected late-life improvement in BS across all recruitment groups, which we recognized as "within-generation selection" or the selective disappearance of "frail" phenotypes. When such heterogeneity was accurately accounted for, we showed that all individuals suffered reproductive senescence. We first highlighted how different combinations of pre- and post-recruitment experience across recruitment groups resulted in maximal BS at intermediate ages. BS increased in early recruits as they gained post-recruitment experience, whereas late recruits gained pre-recruitment experience that led to high BS at recruitment. Only individuals recruiting at intermediate ages balanced their pre- and post-recruitment experience. Consistent with the "cumulative reproductive cost hypothesis," we also observed a faster decline in BS in early recruits at advanced ages, whereas individuals delaying recruitment experienced the slowest decline in BS with age. Early recruits, however, reached the highest levels of BS at intermediate ages, sensus stricto (10-13 years old), whereas individuals delaying recruitment experienced the lowest at similar ages. These divergent trajectories may reflect a "delayed trade-off" balancing a maximization of midlife BS against reproductive senescence at advanced ages. Additionally, annual variation in BS had a greater effect on individuals early in life, suggesting that experienced individuals were able to buffer out the effects of temporal variation on BS, which can ultimately improve fitness in stochastic environments. Our findings stress that (1) both observed and unobserved heterogeneity are important in detecting within-individual senescence, and (2) short-term trade-offs may be rare in long-lived species; thus, cumulated reproductive costs should be invoked as an alternative mechanism underlying reproductive senescence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lise M Aubry
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse Str. 1, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.
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22
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Ruokolainen L, Lindén A, Kaitala V, Fowler MS. Ecological and evolutionary dynamics under coloured environmental variation. Trends Ecol Evol 2009; 24:555-63. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2009.04.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 136] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2008] [Revised: 04/07/2009] [Accepted: 04/08/2009] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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23
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Koons DN, Pavard S, Baudisch A, Jessica E. Metcalf C. Is life-history buffering or lability adaptive in stochastic environments? OIKOS 2009. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.16399.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 70] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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24
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Does harvest select for maladaptation in an increasingly variable world? Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2009; 106:E32; author reply E33. [PMID: 19304796 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0900520106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
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25
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Koons DN, Metcalf CJE, Tuljapurkar S. Evolution of delayed reproduction in uncertain environments: a life-history perspective. Am Nat 2009; 172:797-805. [PMID: 18959491 DOI: 10.1086/592867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Environmental uncertainty alone can select for delayed reproduction; however, its relative role in the evolution of delayed reproduction across life histories is not known. Along a life-history spectrum from low-survival/high-fertility species to high-survival/low-fertility species, we show that the latter are more likely to evolve delayed reproduction if fertility varies over time. By contrast, if survival varies over time, low-survival life histories are more likely to evolve delays. If there is variation in both survival and fertility, and if this variation is positively associated, the evolutionarily stable reproductive delay is decreased (relative to independent variation in survival and fertility). Conversely, if variation in survival and fertility is negatively associated, the evolutionarily stable reproductive delay is increased. We further show that environmental uncertainty can drive the evolution of delayed reproduction in an iteroparous organism but only in the special case where juvenile survival is greater than adult survival. For common iteroparous life histories (adult survival > juvenile survival), environmental uncertainty does not select for delayed reproduction. Thus, any benefits that delayed reproduction might have on reproduction or survival could be especially important in explaining the common observation of delayed reproduction in many vertebrates and perennial plants.
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Affiliation(s)
- David N Koons
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah 84322, USA.
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