Mothers with higher twinning propensity had lower fertility in pre-industrial Europe

Historically, mothers producing twins gave birth, on average, more often than non-twinners. This observation has been interpreted as twinners having higher intrinsic fertility – a tendency to conceive easily irrespective of age and other factors – which has shaped both hypotheses about why twinning persists and varies across populations, and the design of medical studies on female fertility. Here we show in >20k pre-industrial European mothers that this interpretation results from an ecological fallacy: twinners had more births not due to higher intrinsic fertility, but because mothers that gave birth more accumulated more opportunities to produce twins. Controlling for variation in the exposure to the risk of twinning reveals that mothers with higher twinning propensity – a physiological predisposition to producing twins – had fewer births, and when twin mortality was high, fewer offspring reaching adulthood. Twinning rates may thus be driven by variation in its mortality costs, rather than variation in intrinsic fertility.

The question of whether women who produce twins are more fertile than other women has been debated. Here, the authors analyze a large dataset of pre-industrial birth outcomes and find evidence against the idea of higher fertility and instead that more births lead to more twinning opportunities.

Offspring sex preferences among patrilineal and matrilineal Mosuo in Southwest China revealed by differences in parity progression

Son preference predominates in China, yet there are patterned exceptions to this rule. In this paper, we test whether lineality (patrilineal versus matrilineal inheritance and descent) is associated with son versus daughter preference among the ethnic Mosuo (Na) of Southwest China. Our results show (i) an increased probability of continued fertility among matrilineal women after having a son compared with a daughter and (ii) an increased probability of continued fertility among patrilineal women after having a daughter compared with a son. These results are consistent with son preference among patrilineal Mosuo and more muted daughter preference among the matrilineal Mosuo. Furthermore, we show (iii) the lowest probability of continued fertility at parity 2 once women have one daughter and one son across both systems, suggesting that preferences for at least one of each sex exist alongside preferences for the lineal sex. The Mosuo are the only known small-scale society in which two kinship systems distinguish sub-groups with many otherwise shared cultural characteristics. We discuss why this, in conjunction with differences in subsistence, may shed light on the evolutionary underpinnings of offspring sex preferences.

Reproductive History and Later-Life Comorbidity Trajectories: A Medicare-Linked Cohort Study From the Utah Population Database

Reproductive lives of men and women may provide significant insight into later-life morbidity and mortality. Sociological, biological, and evolutionary theories predict a relationship between reproductive history and later-life health; however, current research is lacking consensus on the direction of the relationship. Parity, early age at first birth and last birth, birth weight of offspring, having a child die as an infant, and having a preterm birth may have long-term effects on health for both men and women. In this study, the relationship between these measures of reproductive history and later-life health is examined using the Utah Population Database (a rich source of longitudinal data), and Medicare claims data from 1992-2009. Later-life health is measured using annual Charlson comorbidity index scores, a construct that summarizes most serious illnesses afflicting older individuals. Group-based trajectory modeling that accounts for nonrandom attrition due to death is used to identify the number and types of morbidity trajectories by sex and age for 52,924 individuals aged 65-84 in 1992. For females, early age at first birth, high parity, and having a preterm or high-birth-weight baby are associated with increased risks of comorbidity; later age at last birth is associated with a decreased risk of comorbidity. For males, early age at first birth and having a child with an abnormal birth weight leads to increased risk of comorbidity. The results suggest that both biological and social factors play important roles in the relationships between fertility and morbidity profiles at older ages.