Viral mutation rates: modelling the roles of within-host viral dynamics and the trade-off between replication fidelity and speed

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome evolutionary patterns

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus accompanied by public availability of abundant sequence data provides a window for the determination of viral evolutionary patterns. In this study, SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences were collected from seven countries in the period January 2020-December 2022. The sequences were classified into three phases, namely, pre-vaccination, post-vaccination, and recent period. Comparison was performed between these phases based on parameters like mutation rates, selection pressure (dN/dS ratio), and transition to transversion ratios (Ti/Tv). Similar comparisons were performed among SARS-CoV-2 variants. Statistical significance was tested using Graphpad unpaired t-test. The analysis showed an increase in the percent genomic mutation rates post-vaccination and in recent periods across all countries from the pre-vaccination sequences. Mutation rates were highest in NSP3, S, N, and NSP12b before and increased further after vaccination. NSP4 showed the largest change in mutation rates after vaccination. The dN/dS ratios showed purifying selection that shifted toward neutral selection after vaccination. N, ORF8, ORF3a, and ORF10 were under highest positive selection before vaccination. Shift toward neutral selection was driven by E, NSP3, and ORF7a in the after vaccination set. In recent sequences, the largest dN/dS change was observed in E, NSP1, and NSP13. The Ti/Tv ratios decreased with time. C→U and G→U were the most frequent transitions and transversions. However, U→G was the most frequent transversion in recent period. The Omicron variant had the highest genomic mutation rates, while Delta showed the highest dN/dS ratio. Protein-wise dN/dS ratio was also seen to vary across the different variants.IMPORTANCETo the best of our knowledge, there exists no other large-scale study of the genomic and protein-wise mutation patterns during the time course of evolution in different countries. Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary patterns in view of the varying spatial, temporal, and biological signals is important for diagnostics, therapeutics, and pharmacovigilance of SARS-CoV-2.

The Second Human Pegivirus, a Non-Pathogenic RNA Virus with Low Prevalence and Minimal Genetic Diversity

The second human pegivirus (HPgV-2) is a virus discovered in the plasma of a hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patient in 2015 belonging to the pegiviruses of the family Flaviviridae. HPgV-2 has been proved to be epidemiologically associated with and structurally similar to HCV but unrelated to HCV disease and non-pathogenic, but its natural history and tissue tropism remain unclear. HPgV-2 is a unique RNA virus sharing the features of HCV and the first human pegivirus (HPgV-1 or GBV-C). Moreover, distinct from most RNA viruses such as HCV, HPgV-1 and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), HPgV-2 exhibits much lower genomic diversity, with a high global sequence identity ranging from 93.5 to 97.5% and significantly lower intra-host variation than HCV. The mechanisms underlying the conservation of the HPgV-2 genome are not clear but may include efficient innate immune responses, low immune selection pressure and, possibly, the unique features of the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP). In this review, we summarize the prevalence, pathogenicity and genetic diversity of HPgV-2 and discuss the possible reasons for the uniformity of its genome sequence, which should elucidate the implications of RNA virus fidelity for attenuated viral vaccines.

The role of a programmatic immune response on the evolution of pathogen traits

In modelling pathogen evolution during epidemics, it is important to understand the interactions between within-host infection dynamics and between-host pathogen transmission. Multiscale models often assume an immune response that is highly responsive to pathogen dynamics. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that the immune response in acute infections is triggered and programmatic. This leads to somewhat more predictable infection trajectories where transition times and, consequently, the infectious window are non-exponentially distributed. Here, we develop a within-host model where the immune response is triggered by pathogen growth but otherwise develops independently, and use this to obtain analytic expressions for the infectious period and peak pathogen load. This allows us to model the basic reproductive number in terms of explicit functional relationships among within-host traits including the growth rate of the pathogen. We find that the dependence of pathogen load and the infectious window on within-host parameters constrains the evolution of the pathogen growth rate. At low growth rate, selection favours a higher pathogen load and therefore increasing pathogen growth rate. At high growth rates, selection for a longer infectious window trades off against selection against the effects of virulence. At intermediate growth rates the basic reproductive number is relatively insensitive to changes in the growth rate. The resulting "flat" region of the pathogen fitness landscape is due to the stability of the programmatic immune response in clearing the infection.

Tradeoffs for a viral mutant with enhanced replication speed

RNA viruses exist as genetically heterogeneous populations due to high mutation rates, and many of these mutations reduce fitness and/or replication speed. However, it is unknown whether mutations can increase replication speed of a virus already well adapted to replication in cultured cells. By sequentially passaging coxsackievirus B3 in cultured cells and collecting the very earliest progeny, we selected for increased replication speed. We found that a single mutation in a viral capsid protein, VP1-F106L, was sufficient for the fast-replication phenotype. Characterization of this mutant revealed quicker genome release during entry compared to wild-type virus, highlighting a previously unappreciated infection barrier. However, this mutation also reduced capsid stability in vitro and reduced replication and pathogenesis in mice. These results reveal a tradeoff between overall replication speed and fitness. Importantly, this approach-selecting for the earliest viral progeny-could be applied to a variety of viral systems and has the potential to reveal unanticipated inefficiencies in viral replication cycles.

An MHV-68 Mutator Phenotype Mutant Virus, Confirmed by CRISPR/Cas9-Mediated Gene Editing of the Viral DNA Polymerase Gene, Shows Reduced Viral Fitness

Drug resistance studies on human γ-herpesviruses are hampered by the absence of an in vitro system that allows efficient lytic viral replication. Therefore, we employed murine γ-herpesvirus-68 (MHV-68) that efficiently replicates in vitro as a model to study the antiviral resistance of γ-herpesviruses. In this study, we investigated the mechanism of resistance to nucleoside (ganciclovir (GCV)), nucleotide (cidofovir (CDV), HPMP-5azaC, HPMPO-DAPy) and pyrophosphate (foscarnet (PFA)) analogues and the impact of these drug resistance mutations on viral fitness. Viral fitness was determined by dual infection competition assays, where MHV-68 drug-resistant viral clones competed with the wild-type virus in the absence and presence of antivirals. Using next-generation sequencing, the composition of the viral populations was determined at the time of infection and after 5 days of growth. Antiviral drug resistance selection resulted in clones harboring mutations in the viral DNA polymerase (DP), denoted Y383S^GCV, Q827R^HPMP-5azaC, G302W^PFA, K442T^PFA, G302W+K442T^PFA, C297W^HPMPO-DAPy and C981Y^CDV. Without antiviral pressure, viral clones Q827R^HPMP-5azaC, G302W^PFA, K442T^PFA and G302W+K442T^PFA grew equal to the wild-type virus. However, in the presence of antivirals, these mutants had a growth advantage over the wild-type virus that was moderately to very strongly correlated with antiviral resistance. The Y383S^GCV mutant was more fit than the wild-type virus with and without antivirals, except in the presence of brivudin. The C297W and C981Y changes were associated with a mutator phenotype and had a severely impaired viral fitness in the absence and presence of antivirals. The mutator phenotype caused by C297W in MHV-68 DP was validated by using a CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing approach.

Comprehensive analysis of genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in different geographic regions of India: an endeavour to classify Indian SARS-CoV-2 strains on the basis of co-existing mutations

Accumulation of mutations within the genome is the primary driving force in viral evolution within an endemic setting. This inherent feature often leads to altered virulence, infectivity and transmissibility, and antigenic shifts to escape host immunity, which might compromise the efficacy of vaccines and antiviral drugs. Therefore, we carried out a genome-wide analysis of circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains to detect the emergence of novel co-existing mutations and trace their geographical distribution within India. Comprehensive analysis of whole genome sequences of 837 Indian SARS-CoV-2 strains revealed the occurrence of 33 different mutations, 18 of which were unique to India. Novel mutations were observed in the S glycoprotein (6/33), NSP3 (5/33), RdRp/NSP12 (4/33), NSP2 (2/33), and N (1/33). Non-synonymous mutations were found to be 3.07 times more prevalent than synonymous mutations. We classified the Indian isolates into 22 groups based on their co-existing mutations. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the representative strains of each group were divided into various sub-clades within their respective clades, based on the presence of unique co-existing mutations. The A2a clade was found to be dominant in India (71.34%), followed by A3 (23.29%) and B (5.36%), but a heterogeneous distribution was observed among various geographical regions. The A2a clade was highly predominant in East India, Western India, and Central India, whereas the A2a and A3 clades were nearly equal in prevalence in South and North India. This study highlights the divergent evolution of SARS-CoV-2 strains and co-circulation of multiple clades in India. Monitoring of the emerging mutations will pave the way for vaccine formulation and the design of antiviral drugs.

Within-Host Viral Diversity: A Window into Viral Evolution

The evolutionary dynamics of a virus can differ within hosts and across populations. Studies of within-host evolution provide an important link between experimental studies of virus evolution and large-scale phylodynamic analyses. They can determine the extent to which global processes are recapitulated on local scales and how accurately experimental infections model natural ones. They may also inform epidemiologic models of disease spread and reveal how host-level dynamics contribute to a virus's evolution at a larger scale. Over the last decade, advances in viral sequencing have enabled detailed studies of viral genetic diversity within hosts. I review how within-host diversity is sampled, measured, and expressed, and how comparative studies of viral diversity can be leveraged to elucidate a virus's evolutionary dynamics. These concepts are illustrated with detailed reviews of recent research on the within-host evolution of influenza virus, dengue virus, and cytomegalovirus.

Emerging zoonotic diseases originating in mammals: a systematic review of effects of anthropogenic land-use change

Zoonotic pathogens and parasites that are transmitted from vertebrates to humans are a major public health risk with high associated global economic costs. The spread of these pathogens and risk of transmission accelerate with recent anthropogenic land-use changes (LUC) such as deforestation, urbanisation, and agricultural intensification, factors that are expected to increase in the future due to human population expansion and increasing demand for resources.We systematically review the literature on anthropogenic LUC and zoonotic diseases, highlighting the most prominent mammalian reservoirs and pathogens, and identifying avenues for future research.The majority of studies were global reviews that did not focus on specific taxa. South America and Asia were the most-studied regions, while the most-studied LUC was urbanisation. Livestock were studied more within the context of agricultural intensification, carnivores with urbanisation and helminths, bats with deforestation and viruses, and primates with habitat fragmentation and protozoa.Research into specific animal reservoirs has improved our understanding of how the spread of zoonotic diseases is affected by LUC. The behaviour of hosts can be altered when their habitats are changed, impacting the pathogens they carry and the probability of disease spreading to humans. Understanding this has enabled the identification of factors that alter the risk of emergence (such as virulence, pathogen diversity, and ease of transmission). Yet, many pathogens and impacts of LUC other than urbanisation have been understudied.Predicting how zoonotic diseases emerge and spread in response to anthropogenic LUC requires more empirical and data synthesis studies that link host ecology and responses with pathogen ecology and disease spread. The link between anthropogenic impacts on the natural environment and the recent COVID-19 pandemic highlights the urgent need to understand how anthropogenic LUC affects the risk of spillover to humans and spread of zoonotic diseases originating in mammals.

Low mutation rates promote the evolution of advantageous traits by preventing interference from deleterious mutations

We studied how mutation rates promote the evolution of advantageous traits in an asexual population. First, to examine the effects of mutation rates on the evolution of an advantageous trait (high competitive ability), we carried out simulation analyses with competition between individuals for survival. Second, to examine the mechanism underlying the promotion of advantageous trait evolution, we calculated the probabilities that new favorable effects of mutations on the phenotype were acquired and that existing favorable effects were maintained. In the simulation analyses, advantageous traits evolved in the population with a low mutation rate; however, when the mutation rate was extremely low, advantageous traits evolved slowly because few beneficial mutations occurred. Then, the numerical calculations showed that the probability of acquiring new favorable effects of mutations on the phenotype and the probability of maintaining existing favorable effects are high if the mutation rate is low. The former occurs because, if the mutation rate is high, multiple mutations may occur in a genome, and even if beneficial mutations occur, their favorable effects may be masked by simultaneously occurring deleterious mutations. However, if the mutation rate is low, it is likely that only one beneficial mutation occurs, and its favorable effect on the phenotype is direct. In conclusion, low mutation rates are advantageous because they promote favorable phenotypic effects of mutations without interference from deleterious mutations; these low rates not only prevent the occurrence of deleterious mutations but also help maintain existing beneficial mutations and promote the evolution of advantageous traits.

Immune Response Modulation by Caliciviruses

Noroviruses and Sapoviruses, classified in the Caliciviridae family, are small positive-stranded RNA viruses, considered nowadays the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis globally in both children and adults. Although most noroviruses have been associated with gastrointestinal disease in humans, almost 50 years after its discovery, there is still a lack of comprehensive evidence regarding its biology and pathogenesis mainly because they can be neither conveniently grown in cultured cells nor propagated in animal models. However, other members of this family such as Feline calicivirus (FCV), Murine norovirus (MNV), Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV), and Porcine sapovirus (PS), from which there are accessible propagation systems, have been useful to study the calicivirus replication strategies. Using cell cultures and animal models, many of the functions of the viral proteins in the viral replication cycles have been well-characterized. Moreover, evidence of the role of viral proteins from different members of the family in the establishment of infection has been generated and the mechanism of their immunopathogenesis begins to be understood. In this review, we discuss different aspects of how caliciviruses are implicated in membrane rearrangements, apoptosis, and evasion of the immune responses, highlighting some of the pathogenic mechanisms triggered by different members of the Caliciviridae family.

Fitness Barriers Limit Reversion of a Proofreading-Deficient Coronavirus

Coronaviruses encode an exoribonuclease (ExoN) that is important for viral replication, fitness, and virulence, yet coronaviruses with a defective ExoN (ExoN-AA) have not reverted under diverse experimental conditions. In this study, we identify multiple impediments to MHV-ExoN-AA reversion. We show that ExoN-AA reversion is possible but evolutionarily unfavorable. Instead, compensatory mutations outside ExoN-AA motif I are more accessible and beneficial than partial reversion. We also show that coevolution between replicase proteins over long-term passage partially compensates for ExoN-AA motif I but renders the virus inhospitable to a reverted ExoN. Our results reveal the evolutionary basis for the genetic stability of ExoN-inactivating mutations, illuminate complex functional and evolutionary relationships between coronavirus replicase proteins, and identify potential mechanisms for stabilization of ExoN-AA coronavirus mutants.

The 3′-to-5′ exoribonuclease in coronavirus (CoV) nonstructural protein 14 (nsp14-ExoN) mediates RNA proofreading during genome replication. ExoN catalytic residues are arranged in three motifs: I (DE), II (E), and III (D). Alanine replacement of the motif I residues (AA-E-D; four nucleotide substitutions) in murine hepatitis virus (MHV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV yields viable mutants with impaired replication and fitness, increased mutation rates, and attenuated virulence in vivo. Despite these impairments, MHV- and SARS-CoV ExoN motif I AA mutants (ExoN-AA) have not reverted at motif I in diverse in vitro and in vivo environments, suggesting that profound fitness barriers prevent motif I reversion. To test this hypothesis, we engineered MHV-ExoN-AA with 1, 2, or 3 nucleotide mutations along genetic pathways to AA-to-DE reversion. We show that engineered intermediate revertants were viable but had no increased replication or competitive fitness compared to that of MHV-ExoN-AA. In contrast, a low-passage-number (passage 10 [P10]) MHV-ExoN-AA showed increased replication and competitive fitness without reversion of ExoN-AA. Finally, engineered reversion of ExoN-AA to ExoN-DE in the presence of ExoN-AA passage-adaptive mutations resulted in significant fitness loss. These results demonstrate that while reversion is possible, at least one alternative adaptive pathway is more rapidly advantageous than intermediate revertants and may alter the genetic background to render reversion detrimental to fitness. Our results provide an evolutionary rationale for lack of ExoN-AA reversion, illuminate potential multiprotein replicase interactions and coevolution, and support future studies aimed at stabilizing attenuated CoV ExoN-AA mutants.

IMPORTANCE Coronaviruses encode an exoribonuclease (ExoN) that is important for viral replication, fitness, and virulence, yet coronaviruses with a defective ExoN (ExoN-AA) have not reverted under diverse experimental conditions. In this study, we identify multiple impediments to MHV-ExoN-AA reversion. We show that ExoN-AA reversion is possible but evolutionarily unfavorable. Instead, compensatory mutations outside ExoN-AA motif I are more accessible and beneficial than partial reversion. We also show that coevolution between replicase proteins over long-term passage partially compensates for ExoN-AA motif I but renders the virus inhospitable to a reverted ExoN. Our results reveal the evolutionary basis for the genetic stability of ExoN-inactivating mutations, illuminate complex functional and evolutionary relationships between coronavirus replicase proteins, and identify potential mechanisms for stabilization of ExoN-AA coronavirus mutants.

Evolutionary Virology at 40

RNA viruses are diverse, abundant, and rapidly evolving. Genetic data have been generated from virus populations since the late 1970s and used to understand their evolution, emergence, and spread, culminating in the generation and analysis of many thousands of viral genome sequences. Despite this wealth of data, evolutionary genetics has played a surprisingly small role in our understanding of virus evolution. Instead, studies of RNA virus evolution have been dominated by two very different perspectives, the experimental and the comparative, that have largely been conducted independently and sometimes antagonistically. Here, we review the insights that these two approaches have provided over the last 40 years. We show that experimental approaches using in vitro and in vivo laboratory models are largely focused on short-term intrahost evolutionary mechanisms, and may not always be relevant to natural systems. In contrast, the comparative approach relies on the phylogenetic analysis of natural virus populations, usually considering data collected over multiple cycles of virus-host transmission, but is divorced from the causative evolutionary processes. To truly understand RNA virus evolution it is necessary to meld experimental and comparative approaches within a single evolutionary genetic framework, and to link viral evolution at the intrahost scale with that which occurs over both epidemiological and geological timescales. We suggest that the impetus for this new synthesis may come from methodological advances in next-generation sequencing and metagenomics.

Why are RNA virus mutation rates so damn high?

The high mutation rate of RNA viruses is credited with their evolvability and virulence. This Primer, however, discusses recent evidence that this is, in part, a byproduct of selection for faster genomic replication.

Complexities of Viral Mutation Rates

Many viruses evolve rapidly. This is due, in part, to their high mutation rates. Mutation rate estimates for over 25 viruses are currently available. Here, we review the population genetics of virus mutation rates. We specifically cover the topics of mutation rate estimation, the forces that drive the evolution of mutation rates, and how the optimal mutation rate can be context-dependent.

Homology-Based Identification of a Mutation in the Coronavirus RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase That Confers Resistance to Multiple Mutagens

Positive-sense RNA viruses encode RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRps) essential for genomic replication. With the exception of the large nidoviruses, such as coronaviruses (CoVs), RNA viruses lack proofreading and thus are dependent on RdRps to control nucleotide selectivity and fidelity. CoVs encode a proofreading exonuclease in nonstructural protein 14 (nsp14-ExoN), which confers a greater-than-10-fold increase in fidelity compared to other RNA viruses. It is unknown to what extent the CoV polymerase (nsp12-RdRp) participates in replication fidelity. We sought to determine whether homology modeling could identify putative determinants of nucleotide selectivity and fidelity in CoV RdRps. We modeled the CoV murine hepatitis virus (MHV) nsp12-RdRp structure and superimposed it on solved picornaviral RdRp structures. Fidelity-altering mutations previously identified in coxsackie virus B3 (CVB3) were mapped onto the nsp12-RdRp model structure and then engineered into the MHV genome with [nsp14-ExoN(+)] or without [nsp14-ExoN(-)] ExoN activity. Using this method, we identified two mutations conferring resistance to the mutagen 5-fluorouracil (5-FU): nsp12-M611F and nsp12-V553I. For nsp12-V553I, we also demonstrate resistance to the mutagen 5-azacytidine (5-AZC) and decreased accumulation of mutations. Resistance to 5-FU, and a decreased number of genomic mutations, was effectively masked by nsp14-ExoN proofreading activity. These results indicate that nsp12-RdRp likely functions in fidelity regulation and that, despite low sequence conservation, some determinants of RdRp nucleotide selectivity are conserved across RNA viruses. The results also indicate that, with regard to nucleotide selectivity, nsp14-ExoN is epistatic to nsp12-RdRp, consistent with its proposed role in a multiprotein replicase-proofreading complex.

IMPORTANCE

RNA viruses have evolutionarily fine-tuned replication fidelity to balance requirements for genetic stability and diversity. Responsibility for replication fidelity in RNA viruses has been attributed to the RNA-dependent RNA polymerases, with mutations in RdRps for multiple RNA viruses shown to alter fidelity and attenuate virus replication and virulence. Coronaviruses (CoVs) are the only known RNA viruses to encode a proofreading exonuclease (nsp14-ExoN), as well as other replicase proteins involved in regulation of fidelity. This report shows that the CoV RdRp (nsp12) likely functions in replication fidelity; that residue determinants of CoV RdRp nucleotide selectivity map to similar structural regions of other, unrelated RNA viral polymerases; and that for CoVs, the proofreading activity of the nsp14-ExoN is epistatic to the function of the RdRp in fidelity.

Evolutionary dynamics of viral escape under antibodies stress: A biophysical model

Viruses constantly face the selection pressure of antibodies, either from innate immune response of the host or from administered antibodies for treatment. We explore the interplay between the biophysical properties of viral proteins and the population and demographic variables in the viral escape. The demographic and population genetics aspect of the viral escape have been explored before; however one important assumption was the a priori distribution of fitness effects (DFE). Here, we relax this assumption by instead considering a realistic biophysics-based genotype-phenotype relationship for RNA viruses escaping antibodies stress. In this model the DFE is itself an evolvable property that depends on the genetic background (epistasis) and the distribution of biophysical effects of mutations, which is informed by biochemical experiments and theoretical calculations in protein engineering. We quantitatively explore in silico the viability of viral populations under antibodies pressure and derive the phase diagram that defines the fate of the virus population (extinction or escape from stress) in a range of viral mutation rates and antibodies concentrations. We find that viruses are most resistant to stress at an optimal mutation rate (OMR) determined by the competition between supply of beneficial mutation to facilitate escape from stressors and lethal mutagenesis caused by excess of destabilizing mutations. We then show the quantitative dependence of the OMR on genome length and viral burst size. We also recapitulate the experimental observation that viruses with longer genomes have smaller mutation rate per nucleotide.

Propagation and Characterization of Influenza Virus Stocks That Lack High Levels of Defective Viral Genomes and Hemagglutinin Mutations

Influenza virus infections are responsible for more than 250,000 deaths annually. Influenza virus isolation, propagation, and characterization protocols are critical for completing reproducible basic research studies and for generating vaccine seed stocks. Detailed protocols for the isolation and identification of influenza virus have been recently reported (Eisfeld et al., 2014). However, there are few standardized protocols focused on the propagation and characterization of viral isolates, and as a result, viruses propagated in different conditions in different laboratories often have distinct in vitro and in vivo characteristics. Here, we focus on influenza A virus propagation and characterization in the laboratory taking into consideration the overall quality and composition of the virus stock to achieve consistency in virus yield, virulence, and immunostimulatory activity.

Genetic Instability of RNA Viruses

Despite having very limited coding capacity, RNA viruses are able to withstand challenge of antiviral drugs, cause epidemics in previously exposed human populations, and, in some cases, infect multiple host species. They are able to achieve this by virtue of their ability to multiply very rapidly, coupled with their extraordinary degree of genetic heterogeneity. RNA viruses exist not as single genotypes, but as a swarm of related variants, and this genomic diversity is an essential feature of their biology. RNA viruses have a variety of mechanisms that act in combination to determine their genetic heterogeneity. These include polymerase fidelity, error-mitigation mechanisms, genomic recombination, and different modes of genome replication. RNA viruses can vary in their ability to tolerate mutations, or “genetic robustness,” and several factors contribute to this. Finally, there is evidence that some RNA viruses exist close to a threshold where polymerase error rate has evolved to maximize the possible sequence space available, while avoiding the accumulation of a lethal load of deleterious mutations. We speculate that different viruses have evolved different error rates to complement the different “life-styles” they possess.

Evolutionary Stability of Minimal Mutation Rates in an Evo-epidemiological Model

We consider the evolution of mutation rate in a seasonally forced, deterministic, compartmental epidemiological model with a transmission-virulence trade-off. We model virulence as a quantitative genetic trait in a haploid population and mutation as continuous diffusion in the trait space. There is a mutation rate threshold above which the pathogen cannot invade a wholly susceptible population. The evolutionarily stable (ESS) mutation rate is the one which drives the lowest average density, over the course of one forcing period, of susceptible individuals at steady state. In contrast with earlier eco-evolutionary models in which higher mutation rates allow for better evolutionary tracking of a dynamic environment, numerical calculations suggest that in our model the minimum average susceptible population, and hence the ESS, is achieved by a pathogen strain with zero mutation. We discuss how this result arises within our model and how the model might be modified to obtain a nonzero optimum.

Connecting within-host dynamics to the rate of viral molecular evolution

Viruses evolve rapidly, providing a unique system for understanding the processes that influence rates of molecular evolution. Neutral theory posits that the evolutionary rate increases linearly with the mutation rate. The occurrence of deleterious mutations causes this relationship to break down at high mutation rates. Previous studies have identified this as an important phenomenon, particularly for RNA viruses which can mutate at rates near the extinction threshold. We propose that in addition to mutation dynamics, viral within-host dynamics can also affect the between-host evolutionary rate. We present an analytical model that predicts the neutral evolution rate for viruses as a function of both within-host parameters and deleterious mutations. To examine the effect of more detailed aspects of the virus life cycle, we also present a computational model that simulates acute virus evolution using target cell-limited dynamics. Using influenza A virus as a case study, we find that our simulation model can predict empirical rates of evolution better than a model lacking within-host details. The analytical model does not perform as well as the simulation model but shows how the within-host basic reproductive number influences evolutionary rates. These findings lend support to the idea that the mutation rate alone is not sufficient to predict the evolutionary rate in viruses, instead calling for improved models that account for viral within-host dynamics.

Thinking Outside the Triangle: Replication Fidelity of the Largest RNA Viruses

When judged by ubiquity, adaptation, and emergence of new diseases, RNA viruses are arguably the most successful biological organisms. This success has been attributed to a defect of sorts: high mutation rates (low fidelity) resulting in mutant swarms that allow rapid selection for fitness in new environments. Studies of viruses with small RNA genomes have identified fidelity determinants in viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerases and have shown that RNA viruses likely replicate within a limited fidelity range to maintain fitness. In this review we compare the fidelity of small RNA viruses with that of the largest RNA viruses, the coronaviruses. Coronaviruses encode the first known viral RNA proofreading exoribonuclease, a function that likely allowed expansion of the coronavirus genome and that dramatically increases replication fidelity and the range of tolerated variation. We propose models for regulation of coronavirus fidelity and discuss the implications of altered fidelity for RNA virus replication, pathogenesis, and evolution.

Pathogen evolution and the immunological niche

Host immunity is a major driver of pathogen evolution and thus a major determinant of pathogen diversity. Explanations for pathogen diversity traditionally assume simple interactions between pathogens and the immune system, a view encapsulated by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. However, there is growing evidence that the complexity of many host-pathogen interactions is dynamically important. This revised perspective requires broadening the definition of a pathogen's immunological phenotype, or what can be thought of as its immunological niche. After reviewing evidence that interactions between pathogens and host immunity drive much of pathogen evolution, I introduce the concept of a pathogen's immunological phenotype. Models that depart from the SIR paradigm demonstrate the utility of this perspective and show that it is particularly useful in understanding vaccine-induced evolution. This paper highlights questions in immunology, evolution, and ecology that must be answered to advance theories of pathogen diversity.

Evolutionary invasion and escape in the presence of deleterious mutations

Replicators such as parasites invading a new host species, species invading a new ecological niche, or cancer cells invading a new tissue often must mutate to adapt to a new environment. It is often argued that a higher mutation rate will favor evolutionary invasion and escape from extinction. However, most mutations are deleterious, and even lethal. We study the probability that the lineage will survive and invade successfully as a function of the mutation rate when both the initial strain and an adaptive mutant strain are threatened by lethal mutations. We show that mutations are beneficial, i.e. a non-zero mutation rate increases survival compared to the limit of no mutations, if in the no-mutation limit the survival probability of the initial strain is smaller than the average survival probability of the strains which are one mutation away. The mutation rate that maximizes survival depends on the characteristics of both the initial strain and the adaptive mutant, but if one strain is closer to the threshold governing survival then its properties will have greater influence. These conclusions are robust for more realistic or mechanistic depictions of the fitness landscapes such as a more detailed viral life history, or non-lethal deleterious mutations.

Genomic stability of adipogenic human adenovirus 36

Human adenovirus Ad36 increases adiposity in several animal models, including rodents and non-human primates. Importantly, Ad36 is associated with human obesity, which has prompted research to understand its epidemiology and to develop a vaccine to prevent a subgroup of obesity. For this purpose, understanding the genomic stability of Ad36 in vivo and in vitro infections is critical. Here, we examined whether in vitro cell passaging over a 14-year period introduced any genetic variation in Ad36. We sequenced the whole genome of Ad36-which was plaque purified in 1998 from the original strain obtained from American Type Culture Collection, and passaged approximately 12 times over the past 14 years (Ad36-2012). This DNA sequence was compared with a previously published sequence of Ad36 likely obtained from the same source (Ad36-1988). Compared with Ad36-1988, only two nucleotides were altered in Ad36-2012: a T insertion at nucleotide 1862, which may induce early termination of the E1B viral protein, and a T➝C transition at nucleotide 26 136. Virus with the T insertion (designated Ad36-2012-T6) was mixed with wild-type virus lacking the T insertion (designated Ad36-2012-T5) in the viral stock. The transition at nucleotide 26 136 does not change the encoded amino acid (aspartic acid) in the pVIII viral protein. The rate of genetic variation in Ad36 is ∼2.37 × 10(-6) mutations/nucleotide/passage. Of particular importance, there were no mutations in the E4orf1 gene, the critical gene for producing obesity. This very-low-variation rate should reduce concerns about genetic variability when developing Ad36 vaccines or developing assays for detecting Ad36 infection in populations.

Recombination within the pandemic norovirus GII.4 lineage

Norovirus (NoV) is the leading cause of viral gastroenteritis globally. Since 1996, NoV variants of a single genetic lineage, GII.4, have been associated with at least six pandemics of acute gastroenteritis and caused between 62 and 80% of all NoV outbreaks. The emergence of these novel GII.4 variants has been attributed to rapid evolution and antigenic variation in response to herd immunity; however, the contribution of recombination as a mechanism facilitating emergence is increasingly evident. In this study, we sought to examine the role that intragenotype recombination has played in the emergence of GII.4 variants. Using a genome-wide approach including 25 complete genome sequences generated as part of this study, 11 breakpoints were identified within the NoV GII.4 lineage. The breakpoints were located at three recombination hot spots: near the open reading frame 1/2 (ORF1/2) and ORF2/3 overlaps, as well as within ORF2, which encodes the viral capsid, at the junction of the shell and protruding domains. Importantly, we show that recombination contributed to the emergence of the recent pandemic GII.4 variant, New Orleans 2009, and a newly identified GII.4 variant, termed Sydney 2012. Reconstructing the evolutionary history of the GII.4 lineage reveals the widespread impact of both inter- and intragenotype recombination on the emergence of many GII.4 variants. Lastly, this study highlights the many challenges in the identification of true recombination events and proposes that guidelines be applied for identifying NoV recombinants.