Variation in breeding phenology provides insights into drivers of long-term population change in harbour seals

Reproductive phenology is a repeatable, heritable trait linked to the timing of other life-history events in a migratory marine predator

Population-level shifts in reproductive phenology in response to environmental change are common, but whether individual-level responses are modified by demographic and genetic factors remains less well understood. We used mixed models to quantify how reproductive timing varied across 1772 female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) breeding at Marion Island in the Southern Ocean (1989-2019), and to identify the factors that correlate with phenological shifts within and between individuals. We found strong support for covariation in the timing of breeding arrival dates and the timing of the preceding moult. Breeding arrival dates were more repeatable at the individual level, as compared with the population level, even after accounting for individual traits (wean date as a pup, age and breeding experience) associated with phenological variability. Mother-daughter similarities in breeding phenology were also evident, indicating that additive genetic effects may contribute to between-individual variation in breeding phenology. Over 30 years, elephant seal phenology did not change towards earlier or later dates, and we found no correlation between annual fluctuations in phenology and indices of environmental variation. Our results show how maternal genetic (or non-genetic) effects, individual traits and linkages between cyclical life-history events can drive within- and between-individual variation in reproductive phenology.

Estimating reproductive costs in marine mammal bioenergetic models: a review of current knowledge and data availability

Reproductive costs represent a significant proportion of a mammalian female's energy budget. Estimates of reproductive costs are needed for understanding how alterations to energy budgets, such as those from environmental variation or human activities, impact maternal body condition, vital rates and population dynamics. Such questions are increasingly important for marine mammals, as many populations are faced with rapidly changing and increasingly disturbed environments. Here we review the different energetic costs that marine mammals incur during gestation and lactation and how those costs are typically estimated in bioenergetic models. We compiled data availability on key model parameters for each species across all six marine mammal taxonomic groups (mysticetes, odontocetes, pinnipeds, sirenians, mustelids and ursids). Pinnipeds were the best-represented group regarding data availability, including estimates of milk intake, milk composition, lactation duration, birth mass, body composition at birth and growth. There were still considerable data gaps, particularly for polar species, and good data were only available across all parameters in 45% of pinniped species. Cetaceans and sirenians were comparatively data-poor, with some species having little or no data for any parameters, particularly beaked whales. Even for species with moderate data coverage, many parameter estimates were tentative or based on indirect approaches, necessitating reevaluation of these estimates. We discuss mechanisms and factors that affect maternal energy investment or prey requirements during reproduction, such as prey supplementation by offspring, metabolic compensation, environmental conditions and maternal characteristics. Filling the existing data gaps highlighted in this review, particularly for parameters that are influential on bioenergetic model outputs, will help refine reproductive costs estimated from bioenergetic models and better address how and when energy imbalances are likely to affect marine mammal populations.

Prey encounters and spatial memory influence use of foraging patches in a marine central place forager

Given the patchiness and long-term predictability of marine resources, memory of high-quality foraging grounds is expected to provide fitness advantages for central place foragers. However, it remains challenging to characterize how marine predators integrate memory with recent prey encounters to adjust fine-scale movement and use of foraging patches. Here, we used two months of movement data from harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) to quantify the repeatability in foraging patches as a proxy for memory. We then integrated these data into analyses of fine-scale movement and underwater behaviour to test how both spatial memory and prey encounter rates influenced the seals' area-restricted search (ARS) behaviour. Specifically, we used one month's GPS data from 29 individuals to build spatial memory maps of searched areas and archived accelerometery data from a subset of five individuals to detect prey catch attempts, a proxy for prey encounters. Individuals were highly consistent in the areas they visited over two consecutive months. Hidden Markov models showed that both spatial memory and prey encounters increased the probability of seals initiating ARS. These results provide evidence that predators use memory to adjust their fine-scale movement, and this ability should be accounted for in movement models.

Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure

There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992-2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus, to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management.

Increasing numbers of harbour seals and grey seals in the Solent

Harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) both occur within the UK, but display regional contrasting population trends. While grey seals are typically increasing in number, harbour seals have shown varying trends in recent decades following repeated pandemics. There is a need for monitoring of regional and local populations to understand overall trends. This study utilized a 20-year dataset of seal counts from two neighboring harbours in the Solent region of south England. Generalized additive models showed a significant increase in the numbers of harbour (mean 5.3-30.5) and grey (mean 0-12.0) seals utilizing Chichester Harbour. Conversely, in Langstone Harbour there has been a slight decrease in the number of harbour seals (mean 5.3-4.0). Accompanying photographic data from 2016 to 18 supports the increase in seal numbers within Chichester Harbour, with a total of 68 harbour and 8 grey seals identified. These data also show evidence of site fidelity of harbour seals in this area, with almost a quarter of animals resighted within the past three years. Overall, this long-term study indicates an increasing number of both harbour and grey seals within the Solent. However, more research is required to identify the drivers of this trend.

Allo-suckling occurrence and its effect on lactation and nursing duration in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in Orkney, Scotland

Fostering and allo-suckling are widespread among pinnipeds, and several hypotheses have been formulated to explain their occurrence. Here, we describe the occurrence of allo-suckling in harbour seals from photo-identification data of females and pups in Orkney (Scotland) during the pupping seasons between 2016 and 2019. We used a generalised linear model framework to investigate the effect of allo-suckling on the duration of lactation (females) and of nursing period (pups). A generalised additive model framework was used to explore how the probability of allo-suckling varied throughout the pupping season, and with changes in mother-pup separation time. Allo-suckling was observed in 31 females, at higher rates (18–37% of lactating females and 18–47% of the pups every year) than those observed in other phocid populations, with 13 females allo-suckling in multiple years. The duration of the pups’ nursing period was not affected by allo-suckling occurrence. However, females in mother-pup pairs where both mother and pup allo-suckled had longer lactation duration than when only the pup allo-suckled, or than in pairs where no allo-suckling was observed. The probability of allo-suckling increased during the pupping season and with increased mother-pup separation time. However, the proximate causes and the consequences on future reproductive output and pup survival remain unknown.

Significance statement

Allo-suckling, where females nurse others’ young, is widespread in pinnipeds, particularly among true seals. Given the high costs of lactation in pinnipeds, allo-suckling is a puzzling behaviour. Using photo-identification and field observations, we examined the occurrence of allo-suckling in harbour seals at a colony in Orkney, Scotland. We found that allo-suckling is common among seals at the study site, and at rates higher than reported elsewhere. Our results show that allo-suckling does not appear to affect the duration of the pups’ nursing period but does increase the lactation duration of females who suckle other pups and whose own pups also allo-suckle. This study highlights an area which requires further investigation as the energetic costs and benefits of allo-suckling remain poorly understood.

Determinants of moult haulout phenology and duration in southern elephant seals

Phenological shifts are among the most obvious biological responses to environmental change, yet documented responses for Southern Ocean marine mammals are extremely rare. Marine mammals can respond to environmental changes through phenological flexibility of their life-history events such as breeding and moulting. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) undergo an obligatory annual moult which involves the rapid shedding of epidermal skin and hair while seals fast ashore. We quantified the timing (phenology) and duration (the time from arrival ashore to departure) of the moult haulout of 4612 female elephant seals at Marion Island over 32 years. Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated age, breeding state and environmental drivers of moult timing and haulout duration. We found no clear evidence for a temporal shift in moult phenology or its duration. Annual variation in moult arrival date and haulout duration was small relative to age and breeding effects, which explained more than 90% of the variance in moult arrival date and 25% in moult haulout duration. All environmental covariates we tested explained minimal variation in the data. Female elephant seals moulted progressively later as juveniles, but adults age 4 and older had similar moult start dates that depended on the breeding state of the female. In contrast, moult haulout duration was not constant with age among adults, but instead became shorter with increasing age. Moulting is energetically expensive and differences in the moult haulout duration are possibly due to individual variation in body mass and associated metabolizable energy reserves, although other drivers (e.g. hormones) may also be present. Individual-based data on moult arrival dates and haulout duration can be used as auxiliary data in demographic modelling and may be useful proxies of other important biological parameters such as body condition and breeding history.

Exploring causal components of plasticity in grey seal birthdates: Effects of intrinsic traits, demography, and climate

Change in breeding phenology is often a response to environmental forcing, but less is known of the mechanism underlying such changes and their fitness consequences. Here, we report on changes in the breeding phenology from a 27-year longitudinal study (1991-2017) of individually marked, known-aged grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada. We used generalized linear mixed models and a 3-step process to develop a model that includes interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic covariates and to test hypotheses about the influence of fixed factors (maternal age, parity, previous reproductive success, pup sex, colony density, Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Sea Surface Temperature) and a random factor (female identity) on parturition dates. We also examined the consequences of the shift in birthdates on maternal energy allocation in offspring as measured by pup weaning mass. Birthdates were known for 2,768 pups of 660 known-age females. For 494 females with ≥2 parturition dates, repeatability as measured by the intraclass correlation was high (mean = 0.66). 87% of the variation in birthdates was explained by a mixed-effects model that included intrinsic and extrinsic fixed effects. Most of the explained variation was associated with the random effect of female identity. Parity was the most important intrinsic fixed effect, with inexperienced mothers giving birth later in the season than multiparous females. Over almost 3 decades, mean birthdates advanced by 15 days. The mixed model with intrinsic effects and population size, the detrended AMO from the previous year and mean NAO in the previous 3 years explained 80% of the variation with 21% of variation from the fixed effects. Both primiparous and multiparous individuals responded to the climate forcing, and there was strong evidence for heterogeneity in the response. Nevertheless, the shift in birthdates did not impact pup weaning mass.

Large-scale molecular diet analysis in a generalist marine mammal reveals male preference for prey of conservation concern

Sex-specific diet information is important in the determination of predator impacts on prey populations. Unfortunately, the diet of males and females can be difficult to describe, particularly when they are marine predators. We combined two molecular techniques to describe haul-out use and prey preferences of male and female harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) from Comox and Cowichan Bay (Canada) during 2012-2013. DNA metabarcoding quantified the diet proportions comprised of prey species in harbor seal scat, and qPCR determined the sex of the individual that deposited each scat. Using 287 female and 260 male samples, we compared the monthly sex ratio with GLMs and analyzed prey consumption relative to sex, season, site, and year with PERMANOVA. The sex ratio between monthly samples differed widely in both years (range = 12%-79% males) and showed different patterns at each haul-out site. Male and female diet differed across both years and sites: Females consumed a high proportion of demersal fish species while males consumed more salmonid species. Diet composition was related to both sex and season (PERMANOVA: R 2 = 27%, p < 0.001; R 2 = 24%, p < 0.001, respectively) and their interaction (PERMANOVA: R 2 = 11%, p < 0.001). Diet differences between males and females were consistent across site and year, suggesting fundamental foraging differences, including that males may have a larger impact on salmonids than females. Our novel combination of techniques allowed for both prey taxonomic and spatiotemporal resolution unprecedented in marine predators.

Echoes from the past: Regional variations in recovery within a harbour seal population

Terrestrial and marine wildlife populations have been severely reduced by hunting, fishing and habitat destruction, especially in the last centuries. Although management regulations have led to the recovery of some populations, the underlying processes are not always well understood. This study uses a 40-year time series of counts of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Wadden Sea to study these processes, and demonstrates the influence of historical regional differences in management regimes on the recovery of this population. While the Wadden Sea is considered one ecologically coupled zone, with a distinct harbour seal population, the area is divided into four geo-political regions i.e. the Netherlands, Lower Saxony including Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein and Denmark. Gradually, seal hunting was banned between 1962 and 1977 in the different regions. Counts of moulting harbour seals and pup counts, obtained during aerial surveys between 1974 and 2014, show a population growth from approximately 4500 to 39,000 individuals. Population growth models were developed to assess if population growth differed between regions, taking into account two Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV) epizootics, in 1988 and 2002 which seriously affected the population. After a slow start prior to the first epizootic, the overall population grew exponentially at rates close to assumed maximum rates of increase in a harbour seal population. Recently, growth slowed down, potentially indicative of approaching carrying capacity. Regional differences in growth rates were demonstrated, with the highest recovery in Netherlands after the first PDV epizootic (i.e. 17.9%), suggesting that growth was fuelled by migration from the other regions, where growth remained at or below the intrinsic growth rate (13%). The seals' distribution changed, and although the proportion of seals counted in the German regions declined, they remained by far the most important pupping region, with approximately 70% of all pups being born there. It is hypothesised that differences in hunting regime, preceding the protection in the 1960's and 1970's, created unbalance in the distribution of breeding females throughout the Wadden Sea, which prevailed for decades. Breeding site fidelity promoted the growth in pup numbers at less affected breeding sites, while recolonisation of new breeding areas would be suppressed by the philopatry displayed by the animals born there. This study shows that for long-lived species, variable management regimes in this case hunting regulations, across a species' range can drive population dynamics for several generations.

Birth dates vary with fixed and dynamic maternal features, offspring sex, and extreme climatic events in a high-latitude marine mammal

Reproductive synchrony tends to be widespread in diverse species of plants and animals, especially at higher latitudes. However, for long‐lived mammals, birth dates for different individuals can vary by weeks within a population. A mother's birth timing can reveal useful information about her reproductive abilities and have important implications for the characteristics and survival of her offspring. Despite this, our current knowledge of factors associated with variation in birth dates is modest. We used long‐term data for known‐age Weddell seals in Antarctica and a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to study how birth dates varied with fixed and temporally varying features of mothers, whether sex allocation varied with birth timing, and annual variation in birth dates. Based on birth dates for 4465 pups born to 1117 mothers aged 4–31, we found that diverse features of mothers were associated with variation in birth dates. Maternal identity was the most important among these. Unlike most studies, which have reported that birth dates occur earlier as mothers age, we found that birth dates progressively occurred earlier in the year in the early part of a mother's reproductive life, reached a minimum at age 16, and then occurred later at later ages. Birth dates were positively related to a mother's age at primiparity and recent reproductive effort. The earliest birth dates were for pups born to prime‐age mothers who did not reproduce in the previous year but began reproduction early in life, suggesting that females in the best condition gave birth earlier than others. If so, our finding that male pups tended to be born earlier than females provides support for the Trivers–Willard sex‐allocation model. Average birth dates were quite consistent across years, except for 2 years that had notable delays and occurred during the period when massive icebergs were present and disrupted the ecosystem.

Length of intervals between epidemics: evaluating the influence of maternal transfer of immunity

The length of intervals between epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases is critical in epidemiology. In several species of marine mammals and birds, it is pivotal to also consider the life history of the species of concern, as the contact rate between individuals can have a seasonal flux, for example, due to aggregations during the breeding season. Recently, particular interest has been given to the role of the dynamics of immunity in determining the intervals between epidemics in wild animal populations. One potentially powerful, but often neglected, process in this context is the maternal transfer of immunity. Here, we explore theoretically how the transfer of maternal antibodies can delay the recurrence of epidemics using Phocine Distemper in harbor seals as an example of a system in which epidemic outbreaks are followed by pathogen extinction. We show that the presence of temporarily protected newborns can significantly increase the predicted interval between epidemics, and this effect is strongly dependent on the degree of synchrony in the breeding season. Furthermore, we found that stochasticity in the onset of epidemics in combination with maternally acquired immunity increases the predicted intervals between epidemics even more. These effects arise because newborns with maternal antibodies temporarily boost population level immunity above the threshold of herd immunity, particularly when breeding is synchronous. Overall, our results show that maternal antibodies can have a profound influence on the dynamics of wildlife epidemics, notably in gregarious species such as many marine mammals and seabirds.

State-space modelling reveals proximate causes of harbour seal population declines

Declines in large vertebrate populations are widespread but difficult to detect from monitoring data and hard to understand due to a multiplicity of plausible biological explanations. In parts of Scotland, harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) have been in decline for 10 years. To evaluate the contributions of different proximate causes (survival, fecundity, observation artefacts) to this decline, we collated behavioural, demographic and population data from one intensively studied population in part of the Moray Firth (north-east Scotland). To these, we fit a state-space model comprising age-structured dynamics and a detailed account of observation errors. After accounting for culling (estimated by our model as 14% of total mortality), the main driver of the historical population decline was a decreasing trend in survival of young individuals combined with (previously unrecognised) low levels of pupping success. In more recent years, the model provides evidence for considerable increases in breeding success and consistently high levels of adult survival. However, breeding success remains the most volatile demographic component of the population. Forecasts from the model indicate a slow population recovery, providing cautious support for recent management measures. Such investigations of the proximate causes of population change (survival, fecundity and observation errors) provide valuable short-term support for the management of population declines, helping to focus future data collection on those ultimate causal mechanisms that are not excluded by the demographic evidence. The contribution of specific ultimate drivers (e.g. shooting mortality or competitors) can also be quantified by including them as covariates to survival or fecundity.