Oceanographic drivers and mistiming processes shape breeding success in a seabird

Variation and correlation in the timing of breeding of North Atlantic seabirds across multiple scales

Timing of breeding, an important driver of fitness in many populations, is widely studied in the context of global change, yet despite considerable efforts to identify environmental drivers of seabird nesting phenology, for most populations we lack evidence of strong drivers. Here we adopt an alternative approach, examining the degree to which different populations positively covary in their annual phenology to infer whether phenological responses to environmental drivers are likely to be (a) shared across species at a range of spatial scales, (b) shared across populations of a species or (c) idiosyncratic to populations. We combined 51 long-term datasets on breeding phenology spanning 50 years from nine seabird species across 29 North Atlantic sites and examined the extent to which different populations share early versus late breeding seasons depending on a hierarchy of spatial scales comprising breeding site, small-scale region, large-scale region and the whole North Atlantic. In about a third of cases, we found laying dates of populations of different species sharing the same breeding site or small-scale breeding region were positively correlated, which is consistent with the hypothesis that they share phenological responses to the same environmental conditions. In comparison, we found no evidence for positive phenological covariation among populations across species aggregated at larger spatial scales. In general, we found little evidence for positive phenological covariation between populations of a single species, and in many instances the inter-year variation specific to a population was substantial, consistent with each population responding idiosyncratically to local environmental conditions. Black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla was the exception, with populations exhibiting positive covariation in laying dates that decayed with the distance between breeding sites, suggesting that populations may be responding to a similar driver. Our approach sheds light on the potential factors that may drive phenology in our study species, thus furthering our understanding of the scales at which different seabirds interact with interannual variation in their environment. We also identify additional systems and phenological questions to which our inferential approach could be applied.

Hemispheric asymmetry in ocean change and the productivity of ecosystem sentinels

Climate change and other human activities are causing profound effects on marine ecosystem productivity. We show that the breeding success of seabirds is tracking hemispheric differences in ocean warming and human impacts, with the strongest effects on fish-eating, surface-foraging species in the north. Hemispheric asymmetry suggests the need for ocean management at hemispheric scales. For the north, tactical, climate-based recovery plans for forage fish resources are needed to recover seabird breeding productivity. In the south, lower-magnitude change in seabird productivity presents opportunities for strategic management approaches such as large marine protected areas to sustain food webs and maintain predator productivity. Global monitoring of seabird productivity enables the detection of ecosystem change in remote regions and contributes to our understanding of marine climate impacts on ecosystems.

No evidence for fitness signatures consistent with increasing trophic mismatch over 30 years in a population of European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis

As temperatures rise, timing of reproduction is changing at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in asynchrony between consumers and their resources. The match-mismatch hypothesis (MMH) suggests that trophic asynchrony will have negative impacts on average productivity of consumers. It is also thought to lead to selection on timing of breeding, as the most asynchronous individuals will show the greatest reductions in fitness. Using a 30-year individual-level dataset of breeding phenology and success from a population of European shags on the Isle of May, Scotland, we tested a series of predictions consistent with the hypothesis that fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony are increasing. These predictions quantified changes in average annual breeding success and strength of selection on timing of breeding, over time and in relation to rising sea surface temperature (SST) and diet composition. Annual average (population) breeding success was negatively correlated with average lay date yet showed no trend over time, or in relation to increasing SST or the proportion of principal prey in the diet, as would be expected if trophic mismatch was increasing. At the individual level, we found evidence for stabilising selection and directional selection for earlier breeding, although the earliest birds were not the most productive. However, selection for earlier laying did not strengthen over time, or in relation to SST or slope of the seasonal shift in diet from principal to secondary prey. We found that the optimum lay date advanced by almost 4 weeks during the study, and that the population mean lay date tracked this shift. Our results indicate that average performance correlates with absolute timing of breeding of the population, and there is selection for earlier laying at the individual level. However, we found no fitness signatures of a change in the impact of climate-induced trophic mismatch, and evidence that shags are tracking long-term shifts in optimum timing. This suggests that if asynchrony is present in this system, breeding success is not impacted. Our approach highlights the advantages of examining variation at both population and individual levels when assessing evidence for fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony.

The influence of climate variability on demographic rates of avian Afro-palearctic migrants

Climate is an important driver of changes in animal population size, but its effect on the underlying demographic rates remains insufficiently understood. This is particularly true for avian long-distance migrants which are exposed to different climatic factors at different phases of their annual cycle. To fill this knowledge gap, we used data collected by a national-wide bird ringing scheme for eight migratory species wintering in sub-Saharan Africa and investigated the impact of climate variability on their breeding productivity and adult survival. While temperature at the breeding grounds could relate to the breeding productivity either positively (higher food availability in warmer springs) or negatively (food scarcity in warmer springs due to trophic mismatch), water availability at the non-breeding should limit the adult survival and the breeding productivity. Consistent with the prediction of the trophic mismatch hypothesis, we found that warmer springs at the breeding grounds were linked with lower breeding productivity, explaining 29% of temporal variance across all species. Higher water availability at the sub-Saharan non-breeding grounds was related to higher adult survival (18% temporal variance explained) but did not carry-over to breeding productivity. Our results show that climate variability at both breeding and non-breeding grounds shapes different demographic rates of long-distance migrants.

Oceanic thermal structure mediates dive sequences in a foraging seabird

Changes in marine ecosystems are easier to detect in upper-level predators, like seabirds, which integrate trophic interactions throughout the food web.Here, we examined whether diving parameters and complexity in the temporal organization of diving behavior of little penguins (Eudyptula minor) are influenced by sea surface temperature (SST), water stratification, and wind speed-three oceanographic features influencing prey abundance and distribution in the water column.Using fractal time series analysis, we found that foraging complexity, expressed as the degree of long-range correlations or memory in the dive series, was associated with SST and water stratification throughout the breeding season, but not with wind speed. Little penguins foraging in warmer/more-stratified waters exhibited greater determinism (memory) in foraging sequences, likely as a response to prey aggregations near the thermocline. They also showed higher foraging efficiency, performed more dives and dove to shallower depths than those foraging in colder/less-stratified waters.Reductions in the long-term memory of dive sequences, or in other words increases in behavioral stochasticity, may suggest different strategies concerning the exploration-exploitation trade-off under contrasting environmental conditions.

Socotra Cormorants in the Arabian Gulf: a review of breeding biology, feeding ecology, movements and conservation

Seabirds form important components of marine ecosystems, serving as top predators that indicate long-term stability through feeding interactions. Many species of seabirds reside within the Arabian Gulf although their role in this marine system is not well characterized. Furthermore, oil exploitation and development activities have reduced many species significantly. In this review, I use the Socotra Cormorant (Phalacrocorax nigrogularis) as an example of the biology, movement and conservation of seabirds in the Arabian Gulf. Socotra Cormorants are among the most numerically abundant seabirds residing within the Arabian Gulf. The species has a restricted range spanning from Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and south into the Gulf of Aden. They are categorized as Vulnerable by the IUCN. Between 56,800-82,800 breeding pairs occur in the United Arab Emirates on 9-12 islands. Breeding season stretches from August to December although delayed or disrupted breeding could result in breeding seasons extending to March. They feed on small forage fish including anchovies (Encrasicholina spp.) with potentially high biomass of small fish taken annually totaling to 11,000-18,000 tons annually. Foraging activities occur in coastal, shallow waters under 15m in depth. On Siniya Island in the east, migration begins in December and birds fly to the central portion of the Arabian Gulf within waters of Abu Dhabi. Summer roosting areas could be associated with movement of fish in to deeper, low-productivity waters during the harsh summers. Patterns of foraging during the breeding season and migration after breeding activities highlight areas that need protection. Future protection of the species would require coordination between different jurisdictions within UAE as well as in Oman.

Infestation of small seabirds by Ornithodoros maritimus ticks: Effects on chick body condition, reproduction and associated infectious agents

Ticks can negatively affect their host by direct effects as blood feeding causing anaemia or discomfort, or by pathogen transmission. Consequently, ticks can have an important role in the population dynamics of their hosts. However, specific studies on the demographic effects of tick infestation on seabirds are still scarce. Seabird ticks have also the potential to be responsible for the circulation of little known tick-borne agents, which could have implications for non-seabird species. Here, we report the results of investigations on potential associations between soft tick Ornithodoros maritimus load and reproductive parameters of storm petrels Hydrobates pelagicus breeding in a large colony in a cave of Espartar Island, in the Balearic archipelago. We also investigated by molecular analyses the potential viral and bacterial pathogens associated with O. maritimus ticks present at the colony. Lower nestling survival was recorded in the most infested area, deep in the cave, compared to the area near the entrance. The parasite load was negatively associated with the body condition of the nestlings. One pool of ticks tested positive for West Nile virus and 4 pools tested positive for a Borrelia species which was determined by targeted nested PCR to have a 99% sequence identity with B. turicatae, a relapsing fever Borrelia. Overall, these results show that further investigations are needed to better understand the ecology and epidemiology of the interactions between ticks, pathogens and Procellariiform species.

Long-distance flights and high-risk breeding by nomadic waterbirds on desert salt lakes

Understanding and conserving mobile species presents complex challenges, especially for animals in stochastic or changing environments. Nomadic waterbirds must locate temporary water in arid biomes where rainfall is highly unpredictable in space and time. To achieve this they need to travel over vast spatial scales and time arrival to exploit pulses in food resources. How they achieve this is an enduring mystery.  We investigated these challenges in the colonial-nesting Banded Stilt (Cladorhynchus leucocephalus), a nomadic shorebird of conservation concern. Hitherto, Banded Stilts were hypothesized to have only 1-2 chances to breed during their long lifetime, when flooding rain fills desert salt lakes, triggering mass-hatching of brine shrimp. Over 6 years, we satellite tagged 57 individuals, conducted 21 aerial surveys to detect nesting colonies on 14 Australian desert salt lakes, and analyzed 3 decades of Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to quantify salt-lake flood frequency and extent. Within days of distant inland rainfall, Banded Stilts flew 1,000-2,000 km to reach flooded salt lakes. On arrival, females laid over half their body weight in eggs. We detected nesting episodes across the species' range at 7 times the frequency reported during the previous 80 years. Nesting colonies of thousands formed following minor floods, yet most were subsequently abandoned when the water rapidly evaporated prior to egg hatching. Satellite imagery revealed twice as many flood events sufficient for breeding-colony initiation as recorded colonies, suggesting that nesting at remote sites has been underdetected. Individuals took risk on uncertain breeding opportunities by responding to frequent minor flood events between infrequent extensive flooding, exemplifying the extreme adaptability and trade-offs of species exploiting unstable environments. The conservation challenges of nest predation by overabundant native gulls and anthropogenic modifications to salt lakes filling frequencies require investigation, as do the physiological and navigational mechanisms that enable such extreme strategies.

Sea ice phenology and primary productivity pulses shape breeding success in Arctic seabirds

Spring sea ice phenology regulates the timing of the two consecutive pulses of marine autotrophs that form the base of the Arctic marine food webs. This timing has been suggested to be the single most essential driver of secondary production and the efficiency with which biomass and energy are transferred to higher trophic levels. We investigated the chronological sequence of productivity pulses and its potential cascading impacts on the reproductive performance of the High Arctic seabird community from Svalbard, Norway. We provide evidence that interannual changes in the seasonal patterns of marine productivity may impact the breeding performance of little auks and Brünnich's guillemots. These results may be of particular interest given that current global warming trends in the Barents Sea region predict one of the highest rates of sea ice loss within the circumpolar Arctic. However, local- to regional-scale heterogeneity in sea ice melting phenology may add uncertainty to predictions of climate-driven environmental impacts on seabirds. Indeed, our fine-scale analysis reveals that the inshore Brünnich's guillemots are facing a slower advancement in the timing of ice melt compared to the offshore-foraging little auks. We provide a suitable framework for analyzing the effects of climate-driven sea ice disappearance on seabird fitness.

Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity

Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment. We combined information on marine biodiversity with spatial assessments of the impacts of climate change to identify the key areas to prioritize for the conservation of global marine biodiversity. This process identified six marine regions of exceptional biodiversity based on global distributions of 1729 species of fish, 124 marine mammals, and 330 seabirds. Overall, these hot spots of marine biodiversity coincide with areas most severely affected by global warming. In particular, these marine biodiversity hot spots have undergone local to regional increasing water temperatures, slowing current circulation, and decreasing primary productivity. Furthermore, when we overlapped these hot spots with available industrial fishery data, albeit coarser than our estimates of climate impacts, they suggest a worrying coincidence whereby the world's richest areas for marine biodiversity are also those areas mostly affected by both climate change and industrial fishing. In light of these findings, we offer an adaptable framework for determining local to regional areas of special concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity. This has exposed the need for finer-scaled fishery data to assist in the management of global fisheries if the accumulative, but potentially preventable, effect of fishing on climate change impacts is to be minimized within areas prioritized for marine biodiversity conservation.

Aggregation of European storm-petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus ssp. melitensis) around cage fish farms. Do they benefit from the farmś resources?

Cage aquaculture aggregates wild fauna due to food provision. Several seabirds frequent fish farms, including the European storm-petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis). This work investigates the presence of storm-petrels around two aquaculture areas interspersed between breeding colonies in western Mediterranean Sea. Contribution of aquaculture-derived resources to their diet was assessed. Storm-petrels were mist-netted at the colonies and marked by bleaching feathers. Density around aquaculture areas was estimated through visual counts. Marks recognition was conducted visually and by photo-capture. Storm-petrel regurgitates were used as target tissue to estimate diet sources contribution. Contribution of surface zooplankton, ichthyoplankton and aquaculture wastes was estimated through Bayesian mixing modelling combining carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes and fatty acids as biomarkers. Storm-petrel density was high in open-sea aquaculture area, but not observed around near shore farms. Temporal variability of storm-petrels density during the breeding season was linked to their reproductive phenology. Within the open-sea aquaculture area, bluefin tuna farm was more attractive for storm-petrels than seabream/seabass farms. Visual identification of bleaching marks was not useful. Photo-capture showed that 8.3% of the storm-petrels watched around farms were firstly trapped in some of the nearby colonies, and 91.7% were unmarked. Qualitative evidence of aquaculture-derived wastes utilization was obtained. However, its estimated contribution was low (4.3%) when compared to ichthyoplankton (61.1%) or zooplankton (34.6%). The studied open-sea farms significantly aggregated storm-petrels along their entire breeding season. Storm-petrels got a slight profit from aquaculture resources. Nevertheless, some concerns arise regarding the cost/benefit balance of the interaction.