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Maag N, Korner-Nievergelt F, Szymkowiak J, Hałas N, Maziarz M, Neubauer G, Luepold SB, Carlotti S, Schaub M, Flade M, Scherrer D, Grendelmeier A, Riess M, Stelbrink P, Pasinelli G. Wood warbler population dynamics in response to mast seeding regimes in Europe. Ecology 2024; 105:e4227. [PMID: 38038276 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2023] [Revised: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 10/23/2023] [Indexed: 12/02/2023]
Abstract
Mast seeding is the episodic, massive production of plant seeds synchronized over large areas. The resulting superabundance of seeds represents a resource pulse that can profoundly affect animal populations across trophic levels. Following years of high seed production, the abundance of both seed consumers and their predators increase. Higher predator abundance leads to increased predation pressure across the trophic web, impacting nonseed consumers such as the wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix through increased nest predation after tree mast years. Over the past 30 years, the frequency of tree seed masts has increased, while wood warbler populations have declined in several regions of Europe. We hypothesized that increasing mast frequencies may have contributed to the observed population declines by creating suboptimal breeding conditions in years after masting. We measured reproductive output in four study areas in central Europe, which was between 0.61 and 1.24 fledglings lower in the years following masting than nonmasting. For each study area, we used matrix population models to predict population trends based on the estimated reproductive output and the local mast frequencies. We then compared the predicted with the observed population trends to assess if the frequency of mast years had contributed to the population dynamics. In Wielkopolska National Park (PL) and Hessen (DE), masting occurred on average only every 4 years and populations were stable or nearly so, whereas in Jura (CH) and Białowieża National Park (PL), masting occurred every 2 and 2.5 years, respectively, and populations were declining. The simple matrix population models predicted the relative difference among local population trends over the past 10-20 years well, suggesting that the masting frequency may partly explain regional variation in population trends. Simulations suggest that further increases in mast frequency will lead to further declines in wood warbler populations. We show that changes in a natural process, such as mast seeding, may contribute to the decline in animal populations through cascading effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nino Maag
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland
| | | | - Jakub Szymkowiak
- Population Ecology Research Unit, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
- Forest Biology Center, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
| | - Natalia Hałas
- Population Ecology Research Unit, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
| | - Marta Maziarz
- Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
| | | | | | | | | | - Martin Flade
- Schorfheide-Chorin Biosphere Reserve, Angermünde, Germany
| | - Daniel Scherrer
- Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | | | - Michael Riess
- Department of Biology, University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Pablo Stelbrink
- Department of Biology, University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Gilberto Pasinelli
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
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2
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Ozsanlav‐Harris L, Hilton GM, Griffin LR, Walsh AJ, Cao L, Weegman MD, Bearhop S. Differing drivers of decline within a migratory metapopulation has implications for future conservation. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10281. [PMID: 37456071 PMCID: PMC10347676 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Revised: 05/13/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Researchers generally ascribe demographic drivers in a single sub-population and presume they are representative. With this information, practitioners implement blanket conservation measures across metapopulations to reverse declines. However, such approaches may not be appropriate in circumstances where sub-populations are spatiotemporally segregated and exposed to different environmental variation. The Greenland White-fronted Goose, Anser albifrons flavirostris, is an Arctic-nesting migrant that largely comprises two sub-populations (delineated by northerly and southerly breeding areas in west Greenland). The metapopulation has declined since 1999 but this trend is only mirrored in one sub-population and the causes of this disparity are unclear. Here we compare the drivers and trends of productivity in both sub-populations using population- and individual-level analysis. We examined how temperature and precipitation influenced population-level reproductive success over 37 years and whether there was a change in the relationship when metapopulation decline commenced. In addition, we used biologging devices to remotely classify incubation events for 86 bird-years and modelled how phenology and environmental conditions influenced individual-level nest survival. Correlations between reproductive success and temperature/precipitation on the breeding grounds have weakened for both sub-populations. This has resulted in lower reproductive success for the northerly, but not southerly breeding sub-population, which at the individual-level appears to be driven by lower nest survival. Earlier breeding ground arrival and less precipitation during incubation increased nest survival in the northerly breeding population, while no factors examined were important for the southerly breeding sub-population. This suggests reproductive success is driven by different factor(s) in the two sub-populations. Demographic rates and their environmental drivers differ between the sub-populations examined here and consequently we encourage further decomposition of demography within metapopulations. This is important for conservation practitioners to consider as bespoke conservation strategies, targeting different limiting factors, may be required for different sub-populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke Ozsanlav‐Harris
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of ExeterPenrynUK
- Wildfowl & Wetlands TrustGloucesterUK
| | | | | | - Alyn J. Walsh
- National Parks and Wildlife ServiceWexford Wildfowl ReserveNorth SlobIreland
| | - Lei Cao
- State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Centre for Eco‐Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Mitch D. Weegman
- Department of BiologyUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonSaskatchewanCanada
| | - Stuart Bearhop
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of ExeterPenrynUK
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3
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Genetic Diversity in Marginal Populations of Nitraria schoberi L. from Romania. DIVERSITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/d14100882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
Nitraria schoberi L. (Nitrariaceae) is a halophytic plant with a continuous range in Central Asia and with only two populations in the westernmost distribution limit of species, in Romania. Currently, there is no documented explanation for the species’ presence in Europe, outside the main distribution area. Considering that marginal populations genetics are important in establishing range limits and species adaptative potential, genetic diversity was assessed using Inter-simple sequence repeat markers (ISSR). Both the Shannon’s Information Index (I) and Expected Heterozygosity (He) suggested a relatively low level of genetic diversity within the two populations. However, the Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean (UPGMA) dendrogram and Principal Coordinates Analysis clearly distinguished the two populations. Our presumptions, based on current results, are that the marginal westernmost population of N. schoberi was established due to the unique conditions from the “islands of desert” developed in a temperate continental climate. The European establishment of this species was likely accidental and probably due to ornithochory. Genetic relatedness between populations could be a consequence of their common origin, presumably from proximal Asian N. schoberi populations, while the separation can be explained by the lack of genetic material exchange between the two populations.
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4
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Hanmer HJ, Boersch-Supan PH, Robinson RA. Differential changes in life cycle-event phenology provide a window into regional population declines. Biol Lett 2022; 18:20220186. [PMID: 36043306 PMCID: PMC9428546 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2022.0186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change affects the phenology of annual life cycle events of organisms, such as reproduction and migration. Shifts in the timing of these events could have important population implications directly, or provide information about the mechanisms driving population trajectories, especially if they differ between life cycle event. We examine if such shifts occur in a declining migratory passerine bird (willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus), which exhibits latitudinally diverging population trajectories. We find evidence of phenological shifts in breeding initiation, breeding progression and moult that differ across geographic and spring temperature gradients. Moult initiation following warmer springs advances faster in the south than in the north, resulting in proportionally shorter breeding seasons, reflecting higher nest failure rates in the south and in warmer years. Tracking shifts in multiple life cycle events allowed us to identify points of failure in the breeding cycle in regions where the species has negative population trends, thereby demonstrating the utility of phenology analyses for illuminating mechanistic pathways underlying observed population trajectories.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hugh J Hanmer
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK
| | - Philipp H Boersch-Supan
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.,Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Robert A Robinson
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK
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5
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Morrison CA, Butler SJ, Robinson RA, Clark JA, Arizaga J, Aunins A, Baltà O, Cepák J, Chodkiewicz T, Escandell V, Foppen RPB, Gregory RD, Husby M, Jiguet F, Kålås JA, Lehikoinen A, Lindström Å, Moshøj CM, Nagy K, Nebot AL, Piha M, Reif J, Sattler T, Škorpilová J, Szép T, Teufelbauer N, Thorup K, van Turnhout C, Wenninger T, Gill JA. Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20202955. [PMID: 33653129 PMCID: PMC7934962 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Wildlife conservation policies directed at common and widespread, but declining, species are difficult to design and implement effectively, as multiple environmental changes are likely to contribute to population declines. Conservation actions ultimately aim to influence demographic rates, but targeting actions towards feasible improvements in these is challenging in widespread species with ranges that encompass a wide range of environmental conditions. Across Europe, sharp declines in the abundance of migratory landbirds have driven international calls for action, but actions that could feasibly contribute to population recovery have yet to be identified. Targeted actions to improve conditions on poor-quality sites could be an effective approach, but only if local conditions consistently influence local demography and hence population trends. Using long-term measures of abundance and demography of breeding birds at survey sites across Europe, we show that co-occurring species with differing migration behaviours have similar directions of local population trends and magnitudes of productivity, but not survival rates. Targeted actions to boost local productivity within Europe, alongside large-scale (non-targeted) environmental protection across non-breeding ranges, could therefore help address the urgent need to halt migrant landbird declines. Such demographic routes to recovery are likely to be increasingly needed to address global wildlife declines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catriona A Morrison
- School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Simon J Butler
- School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | | | - Jacquie A Clark
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU, UK
| | - Juan Arizaga
- Department of Ornithology, Aranzadi Sciences Society, Zorroagagaina 11, E20014 Donostia, Spain
| | - Ainars Aunins
- Department of Zoology and Animal Ecology, Faculty of Biology, University of Latvia, Jelgavas iela 1, Riga, LV-1004, Latvia.,Latvian Ornithological Society, Skolas iela 3, Riga, LV-1010, Latvia
| | - Oriol Baltà
- Catalan Ornithological Institute, Nat-Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona, Pl. Leonardo da Vinci, 4-5 08019 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jaroslav Cepák
- Bird Ringing Centre, National Museum, Hornoměcholupská 34, CZ-10200 Praha 10, Czech Republic
| | - Tomasz Chodkiewicz
- Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza 64, 00-679 Warszawa, Poland.,Polish Society for the Protection of Birds (OTOP), Odrowaza 24, 05-270 Marki, Poland
| | - Virginia Escandell
- Estudio y Seguimiento de Aves SEO/BirdLife, Melquíades Biencinto, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ruud P B Foppen
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, PO Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands.,Department of Animal Ecology and Physiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, PO Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | | | - Magne Husby
- Nord University, Røstad, 7600 Levanger, Norway.,BirdLife Norway, Sandgata 30B, 7012 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Frédéric Jiguet
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO) UMR 7204, Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France
| | - John Atle Kålås
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, PO Box 5685 Torgarden, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, PO Box 17, Finland
| | - Åke Lindström
- Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Charlotte M Moshøj
- Dansk Ornitologisk Forening, BirdLife Denmark, Vesterbrogade 138-140, DK-1620 København V, Denmark
| | - Károly Nagy
- MME BirdLife Hungary, Monitoring Centre, H-4401 Nyiregyháza 1. PO Box 286, Hungary
| | - Arantza Leal Nebot
- SEO/BirdLife, Ciencia Ciudadana, C/Melquiades Biencinto, 34 - 28053 Madrid, Spain
| | - Markus Piha
- Finnish Museum of Natural History - LUOMUS, PO Box 17, FI-00014, University of Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jiří Reif
- Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Benatska 2, 128 01 Praha 2, Czech Republic.,Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacky University, 771 46 Olomouc, Czech Republic.,Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Belidle 34, 150 00 Praha 5, Czech Republic
| | - Thomas Sattler
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, CH-6204 Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Jana Škorpilová
- Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme, Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Bělidle, CZ-150 00 Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Tibor Szép
- University of Nyíregyháza & MME/BirdLife Hungary, Nyíregyháza, Hungary
| | | | - Kasper Thorup
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Chris van Turnhout
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, PO Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands.,Department of Animal Ecology and Physiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, PO Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Thomas Wenninger
- Swedish Museum of Natural History, Bird Ringing Centre, Box 50007, S-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jennifer A Gill
- School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
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6
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Mizel JD, Schmidt JH, Mcintyre CL. Climate and weather have differential effects in a high latitude passerine community. Oecologia 2021; 195:355-365. [PMID: 33439358 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-020-04847-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2020] [Accepted: 12/29/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Climatic factors act on populations at multiple timescales leading to the separation of long-term climate and shorter-term weather effects. We used passerine counts from 1995 to 2019 in subarctic Alaska (Denali National Park, USA) to assess the impacts of the prior breeding season's weather on breeding season abundance and the impacts of climate measured through shifts in elevational distribution. Weather and climate appear to have had opposing effects on the abundance of some shrub-associated species as evidenced by a positive response to nesting phase temperature over a 1-year lag and a negative response to warming-induced shifts in shrub-dominated habitats over the long term. The latter response was indicated by declines in abundance which occurred in some part through portions of these populations shifting upslope of our fixed sampling frame. Overall, the abundance of species was related to one or more of the lagged effects of weather and the effects of weather alone drove nearly twofold variation in annual abundance in most species. The effect of nesting phase temperature was a strong positive predictor at both community and individual species levels, whereas arrival phase temperature had weak support at both levels. The effects of total precipitation during the nesting phase and snowmelt timing shared mixed support at community and species levels, but generally indicated higher abundance following seasons that were drier and had earlier snowmelt. Together, our findings of opposing effects of climatic variables at different timescales have implications for understanding the mechanisms of population and distributional change in passerines in the subarctic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy D Mizel
- Arctic Network, U.S. National Park Service, 4175 Geist Road, Fairbanks, AK, 99709, USA.
| | - Joshua H Schmidt
- Central Alaska Network, U.S. National Park Service, 4175 Geist Road, Fairbanks, AK, 99709, USA
| | - Carol L Mcintyre
- Central Alaska Network, U.S. National Park Service, 4175 Geist Road, Fairbanks, AK, 99709, USA
- Denali National Park and Preserve, U.S. National Park Service, 4175 Geist Road, Fairbanks, AK, 99709, USA
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7
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Telenský T, Klvaňa P, Jelínek M, Cepák J, Reif J. The influence of climate variability on demographic rates of avian Afro-palearctic migrants. Sci Rep 2020; 10:17592. [PMID: 33067507 PMCID: PMC7567877 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-74658-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2020] [Accepted: 10/06/2020] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate is an important driver of changes in animal population size, but its effect on the underlying demographic rates remains insufficiently understood. This is particularly true for avian long-distance migrants which are exposed to different climatic factors at different phases of their annual cycle. To fill this knowledge gap, we used data collected by a national-wide bird ringing scheme for eight migratory species wintering in sub-Saharan Africa and investigated the impact of climate variability on their breeding productivity and adult survival. While temperature at the breeding grounds could relate to the breeding productivity either positively (higher food availability in warmer springs) or negatively (food scarcity in warmer springs due to trophic mismatch), water availability at the non-breeding should limit the adult survival and the breeding productivity. Consistent with the prediction of the trophic mismatch hypothesis, we found that warmer springs at the breeding grounds were linked with lower breeding productivity, explaining 29% of temporal variance across all species. Higher water availability at the sub-Saharan non-breeding grounds was related to higher adult survival (18% temporal variance explained) but did not carry-over to breeding productivity. Our results show that climate variability at both breeding and non-breeding grounds shapes different demographic rates of long-distance migrants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomáš Telenský
- Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Benátská 2, 128 01, Praha 2, Czech Republic
- Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Květná 8, 603 65, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Petr Klvaňa
- Bird Ringing Centre, National Museum, Prague, Hornoměcholupská 34, 102 00, Praha 10, Czech Republic
| | - Miroslav Jelínek
- Bird Ringing Centre, National Museum, Prague, Hornoměcholupská 34, 102 00, Praha 10, Czech Republic
| | - Jaroslav Cepák
- Bird Ringing Centre, National Museum, Prague, Hornoměcholupská 34, 102 00, Praha 10, Czech Republic
| | - Jiří Reif
- Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Benátská 2, 128 01, Praha 2, Czech Republic.
- Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacky University in Olomouc, 17. listopadu 50, 771 46, Olomouc, Czech Republic.
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8
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Sample C, Bieri JA, Allen B, Dementieva Y, Carson A, Higgins C, Piatt S, Qiu S, Stafford S, Mattsson BJ, Semmens DJ, Diffendorfer JE, Thogmartin WE. Quantifying the Contribution of Habitats and Pathways to a Spatially Structured Population Facing Environmental Change. Am Nat 2020; 196:157-168. [PMID: 32673098 DOI: 10.1086/709009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
The consequences of environmental disturbance and management are difficult to quantify for spatially structured populations because changes in one location carry through to other areas as a result of species movement. We develop a metric, G, for measuring the contribution of a habitat or pathway to network-wide population growth rate in the face of environmental change. This metric is different from other contribution metrics, as it quantifies effects of modifying vital rates for habitats and pathways in perturbation experiments. Perturbation treatments may range from small degradation or enhancement to complete habitat or pathway removal. We demonstrate the metric using a simple metapopulation example and a case study of eastern monarch butterflies. For the monarch case study, the magnitude of environmental change influences the ordering of node contribution. We find that habitats within which all individuals reside during one season are the most important to short-term network growth under complete removal scenarios, whereas the central breeding region contributes most to population growth over all but the strongest disturbances. The metric G provides for more efficient management interventions that proactively mitigate impacts of expected disturbances to spatially structured populations.
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9
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Mattsson BJ, Devries JH, Dubovsky JA, Semmens D, Thogmartin WE, Derbridge JJ, Lopez-Hoffman L. Linking landscape-scale conservation to regional and continental outcomes for a migratory species. Sci Rep 2020; 10:4968. [PMID: 32188890 PMCID: PMC7080806 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-61058-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2019] [Accepted: 02/16/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Land-use intensification on arable land is expanding and posing a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. We develop methods to link funding for avian breeding habitat conservation and management at landscape scales to equilibrium abundance of a migratory species at the continental scale. We apply this novel approach to a harvested bird valued by birders and hunters in North America, the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta), a species well below its population goal. Based on empirical observations from 2007–2016, habitat conservation investments for waterfowl cost $313 M and affected <2% of the pintail’s primary breeding area in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada. Realistic scenarios for harvest and habitat conservation costing an estimated $588 M (2016 USD) led to predicted pintail population sizes <3 M when assuming average parameter values. Accounting for parameter uncertainty, converting 70–100% of these croplands to idle grassland (cost: $35.7B–50B) is required to achieve the continental population goal of 4 M individuals under the current harvest policy. Using our work as a starting point, we propose continued development of modeling approaches that link conservation funding, habitat delivery, and population response to better integrate conservation efforts and harvest management of economically important migratory species.
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Affiliation(s)
- B J Mattsson
- Institute of Wildlife Biology and Game Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, 1180, Austria.
| | - J H Devries
- Ducks Unlimited Canada, Stonewall, MB, R0C2Z0, Canada
| | - J A Dubovsky
- Division of Migratory Bird Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, CO, 80215, USA
| | - D Semmens
- Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, 80225, USA
| | - W E Thogmartin
- Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, U.S. Geological Survey, La Crosse, WI, 54603, USA
| | - J J Derbridge
- School of Natural Resources and Environment, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85719, USA
| | - L Lopez-Hoffman
- School of Natural Resources and Environment, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85719, USA.,Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85719, USA
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10
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Cresswell W, Kazeh NW, Patchett R. Local human population increase in the non‐breeding areas of long‐distance migrant bird species is only weakly associated with their declines, even for synanthropic species. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Will Cresswell
- Centre for Biological Diversity University of St Andrews St Andrews UK
| | | | - Robert Patchett
- Centre for Biological Diversity University of St Andrews St Andrews UK
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11
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Robinson RA, Gardner B. Advances in modelling demographic processes: The Euring 2017 Analytical Meeting. Methods Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Robert A. Robinson
- European Union of Ring Schemes (Euring) and British Trust for OrnithologyThe Nunnery Thetford UK
| | - Beth Gardner
- School of Environmental and Forest SciencesUniversity of Washington Seattle Washington
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12
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Paquet M, Arlt D, Knape J, Low M, Forslund P, Pärt T. Quantifying the links between land use and population growth rate in a declining farmland bird. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:868-879. [PMID: 30766676 PMCID: PMC6362438 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2018] [Revised: 11/13/2018] [Accepted: 11/05/2018] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Land use is likely to be a key driver of population dynamics of species inhabiting anthropogenic landscapes, such as farmlands. Understanding the relationships between land use and variation in population growth rates is therefore critical for the management of many farmland species. Using 24 years of data of a declining farmland bird in an integrated population model, we examined how spatiotemporal variation in land use (defined as habitats with "Short" and "Tall" ground vegetation during the breeding season) and habitat-specific demographic parameters relates to variation in population growth taking into account individual movements between habitats. We also evaluated contributions to population growth using transient life table response experiments which gives information on contribution of past variation of parameters and real-time elasticities which suggests future scenarios to change growth rates. LTRE analyses revealed a clear contribution of Short habitats to the annual variation in population growth rate that was mostly due to fledgling recruitment, whereas there was no evidence for a contribution of Tall habitats. Only 18% of the variation in population growth was explained by the modeled local demography, the remaining variation being explained by apparent immigration (i.e., the residual variation). We discuss potential biological and methodological reasons for high contributions of apparent immigration in open populations. In line with LTRE analysis, real-time elasticity analysis revealed that demographic parameters linked to Short habitats had a stronger potential to influence population growth rate than those of Tall habitats. Most particularly, an increase of the proportion of Short sites occupied by Old breeders could have a distinct positive impact on population growth. High-quality Short habitats such as grazed pastures have been declining in southern Sweden. Converting low-quality to high-quality habitats could therefore change the present negative population trend of this, and other species with similar habitat requirements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthieu Paquet
- Department of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
| | - Debora Arlt
- Department of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
| | - Jonas Knape
- Department of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
| | - Matthew Low
- Department of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
| | - Pär Forslund
- Department of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
| | - Tomas Pärt
- Department of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
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13
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Karagicheva J, Rakhimberdiev E, Saveliev A, Piersma T. Annual chronotypes functionally link life histories and life cycles in birds. Funct Ecol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Julia Karagicheva
- NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchDepartment of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University Texel The Netherlands
| | - Eldar Rakhimberdiev
- NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchDepartment of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University Texel The Netherlands
- Department of Vertebrate ZoologyBiological FacultyLomonosov Moscow State University Moscow Russian Federation
| | - Anatoly Saveliev
- Institute of Ecology and GeographyKazan Federal University Kazan Russian Federation
| | - Theunis Piersma
- NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchDepartment of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University Texel The Netherlands
- Conservation Ecology GroupGroningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES)University of Groningen Groningen The Netherlands
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14
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Wilson S, Saracco JF, Krikun R, Flockhart DTT, Godwin CM, Foster KR. Drivers of demographic decline across the annual cycle of a threatened migratory bird. Sci Rep 2018; 8:7316. [PMID: 29743651 PMCID: PMC5943453 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-25633-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2017] [Accepted: 04/18/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Migratory species are rapidly declining but we rarely know which periods of the annual cycle are limiting for most species. This knowledge is needed to effectively allocate conservation resources to the periods of the annual cycle that best promote species recovery. We examined demographic trends and response to human footprint for Canada warblers (Cardellina canadensis), a threatened Neotropical migrant, using range-wide data (1993–2016) from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program on the breeding grounds. Declines in abundance were steepest in the eastern breeding region, followed by the western region. Breeding productivity did not decline in any region. In contrast, we observed declining recruitment in all regions, low apparent survival in the east and west, and a decline in apparent survival in the east. Abundance declined with increasing disturbance around MAPS stations. Between 1993 and 2009, the human footprint index on the breeding range increased by 0.11% in contrast to a 14% increase on the wintering range. Landscape-scale disturbance on the breeding grounds may influence abundance in some regions; however, the observed trends in demography and footprint suggests limitation during the non-breeding period as the likely driver of overall declines, particularly for eastern populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott Wilson
- Wildlife Research Division, Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, 1125 Colonel by Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0H3, Canada.
| | - James F Saracco
- The Institute for Bird Populations, PO Box 1346, Point Reyes Station, CA, 94956, USA
| | - Richard Krikun
- Lesser Slave Lake Bird Observatory, Box 1076, Slave Lake, AB, T0G2A0, Canada
| | - D T Tyler Flockhart
- Lesser Slave Lake Bird Observatory, Box 1076, Slave Lake, AB, T0G2A0, Canada.,University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Appalachian Laboratory, 301 Braddock Road, Frostburg, MD, 21532, USA
| | - Christine M Godwin
- Owl Moon Environmental Inc., 324 Killdeer Way, Fort McMurray, Alberta, T9K 0R3, Canada
| | - Kenneth R Foster
- Owl Moon Environmental Inc., 324 Killdeer Way, Fort McMurray, Alberta, T9K 0R3, Canada
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15
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Tritrophic phenological match-mismatch in space and time. Nat Ecol Evol 2018; 2:970-975. [PMID: 29686235 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-018-0543-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2016] [Accepted: 03/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Increasing temperatures associated with climate change may generate phenological mismatches that disrupt previously synchronous trophic interactions. Most work on mismatch has focused on temporal trends, whereas spatial variation in the degree of trophic synchrony has largely been neglected, even though the degree to which mismatch varies in space has implications for meso-scale population dynamics and evolution. Here we quantify latitudinal trends in phenological mismatch, using phenological data on an oak-caterpillar-bird system from across the UK. Increasing latitude delays phenology of all species, but more so for oak, resulting in a shorter interval between leaf emergence and peak caterpillar biomass at northern locations. Asynchrony found between peak caterpillar biomass and peak nestling demand of blue tits, great tits and pied flycatchers increases in earlier (warm) springs. There is no evidence of spatial variation in the timing of peak nestling demand relative to peak caterpillar biomass for any species. Phenological mismatch alone is thus unlikely to explain spatial variation in population trends. Given projections of continued spring warming, we predict that temperate forest birds will become increasingly mismatched with peak caterpillar timing. Latitudinal invariance in the direction of mismatch may act as a double-edged sword that presents no opportunities for spatial buffering from the effects of mismatch on population size, but generates spatially consistent directional selection on timing, which could facilitate rapid evolutionary change.
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16
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Franks SE, Pearce-Higgins JW, Atkinson S, Bell JR, Botham MS, Brereton TM, Harrington R, Leech DI. The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:957-971. [PMID: 29152888 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2017] [Accepted: 08/07/2017] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such "trophic asynchrony" is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long-distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially extensive survey data from 1983 to 2010 to estimate variation in spring phenology from 280 plant and insect species and the egg-laying phenology of 21 British songbird species, we explored the effects of trophic asynchrony on avian population trends and potential underlying demographic mechanisms. Species which advanced their laying dates least over the last three decades, and were therefore at greatest risk of asynchrony, exhibited the most negative population trends. We expressed asynchrony as the annual variation in bird phenology relative to spring phenology, and related asynchrony to annual avian productivity. In warmer springs, birds were more asynchronous, but productivity was only marginally reduced; long-distance migrants, short-distance migrants and resident bird species all exhibited effects of similar magnitude. Long-term population, but not productivity, declines were greatest among those species whose annual productivity was most greatly reduced by asynchrony. This suggests that population change is not mechanistically driven by the negative effects of asynchrony on productivity. The apparent effects of asynchrony on population trends are therefore either more likely to be strongly expressed via other demographic pathways, or alternatively, are a surrogate for species' sensitivity to other environmental pressures which are the ultimate cause of decline.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - James R Bell
- Rothamsted Insect Survey, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK
| | - Marc S Botham
- Biological Records Centre, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Crowmarsh Gifford, UK
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17
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Meller K, Piha M, Vähätalo AV, Lehikoinen A. A positive relationship between spring temperature and productivity in 20 songbird species in the boreal zone. Oecologia 2018; 186:883-893. [PMID: 29350284 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-017-4053-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2017] [Accepted: 12/19/2017] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kalle Meller
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, The Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Markus Piha
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, The Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anssi V Vähätalo
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, The Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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