Nutritional state reveals complex consequences of risk in a wild predator-prey community

Direct and indirect effects of cougar predation on bighorn sheep fitness

Predation has direct effects on prey population dynamics through mortality, and it can induce indirect effects through fear. The indirect effects of predation have been documented experimentally, but few studies have quantified them in nature so that their role in prey population dynamics remains controversial. Given the expanding or reintroduced populations of large predators in many areas, the quantification of indirect effects of predation is crucial. We sought to evaluate the direct and indirect fitness effects of intense cougar (Puma concolor) predation using 48 years of data on marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) on Ram Mountain, Alberta, Canada. We compared years of intense cougar predation with years with no or occasional cougar predation. We first quantified the effects of predation on neonatal, weaning, and overwinter lamb survival, three metrics potentially affected by direct and indirect effects. We then investigated the possible indirect effects of intense cougar predation on lamb production, female summer mass gain, and lamb mass at weaning. We found strong effects of cougar predation on lamb survival, lamb production, and seasonal mass gain of lambs and adult females. In years with high predation, neonatal, weaning, and overwinter lamb survival declined by 18.4%, 19.7% and 20.8%, respectively. Indirect effects included a 14.2% decline in lamb production. Female summer mass gain decreased by 15.6% and lamb mass at weaning declined by 8.0% in years of intense cougar predation. Our findings bring key insights on the impacts of predation on prey fitness by reporting moderate to large effects on recruitment and illustrate the importance of indirect effects of predation on population dynamics.

Fear of predators in free-living wildlife reduces population growth over generations

Accurately evaluating the total impact of predators on prey population growth rates is fundamental to forecasting the consequences of predator conservation and management. That the fear (antipredator responses) predators inspire could contribute to this total impact has only relatively recently been recognized. We experimentally demonstrate that fear itself can impact prey population growth rates in free-living wildlife, extending to transgenerational impacts reducing population growth beyond the parental generation. We report how fear may contribute considerably to the total impact of predators and why this may be the norm in birds and mammals. The critical significance of our work lies in experimentally establishing that inferring the effects of predators using data on direct killing alone risks dramatically underestimating their total impact.

Correctly assessing the total impact of predators on prey population growth rates (lambda, λ) is critical to comprehending the importance of predators in species conservation and wildlife management. Experiments over the past decade have demonstrated that the fear (antipredator responses) predators inspire can affect prey fecundity and early offspring survival in free-living wildlife, but recent reviews have highlighted the absence of evidence experimentally linking such effects to significant impacts on prey population growth. We experimentally manipulated fear in free-living wild songbird populations over three annual breeding seasons by intermittently broadcasting playbacks of either predator or nonpredator vocalizations and comprehensively quantified the effects on all the components of population growth, together with evidence of a transgenerational impact on offspring survival as adults. Fear itself significantly reduced the population growth rate (predator playback mean λ = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.80 to 1.04; nonpredator mean λ = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.16) by causing cumulative, compounding adverse effects on fecundity and every component of offspring survival, resulting in predator playback parents producing 53% fewer recruits to the adult breeding population. Fear itself was consequently projected to halve the population size in just 5 years, or just 4 years when the evidence of a transgenerational impact was additionally considered (λ = 0.85). Our results not only demonstrate that fear itself can significantly impact prey population growth rates in free-living wildlife, comparing them with those from hundreds of predator manipulation experiments indicates that fear may constitute a very considerable part of the total impact of predators.

Ecology and Neurobiology of Fear in Free-Living Wildlife

The ecology of fear concerns the population-, community-, and ecosystem-level consequences of the behavioral interactions between predators and prey, i.e., the aggregate impacts of individual responses to life-threatening events. We review new experiments demonstrating that fear itself is powerful enough to affect the population growth rate in free-living wild birds and mammals, and fear of large carnivores—or the human super predator—can cause trophic cascades affecting plant and invertebrate abundance. Life-threatening events like escaping a predator can have enduring, even lifelong, effects on the brain, and new interdisciplinary research on the neurobiology of fear in wild animals is both providing insights into post-traumatic stress (PTSD) and reinforcing the likely commonality of population- and community-level effects of fear in nature. Failing to consider fear thus risks dramatically underestimating the total impact predators can have on prey populations and the critical role predator-prey interactions can play in shaping ecosystems.

Nutritional state reveals complex consequences of risk in a wild predator-prey community

Animal populations are regulated by the combined effects of top-down, bottom-up and abiotic processes. Ecologists have struggled to isolate these mechanisms because their effects on prey behaviour, nutrition, security and fitness are often interrelated. We monitored how forage, non-consumptive effects (NCEs), consumptive predation and climatic conditions influenced the demography and nutritional state of a wild prey population during predator recolonization. Combined measures of nutrition, survival and population growth reveal that predators imposed strong effects on the prey population through interacting non-consumptive and consumptive effects, and forage mechanisms. Predation was directly responsible for adult survival, while declining recruitment was attributed to predation risk-sensitive foraging, manifested in poor female nutrition and juvenile recruitment. Substituting nutritional state into the recruitment model through a shared term reveals that predation risk-sensitive foraging was nearly twice as influential as summer forage conditions. Our findings provide a novel, mechanistic insight into the complex means by which predators and forage conditions affect prey populations, and point to a need for more ecological studies that integrate behaviour, nutrition and demography. This line of inquiry can provide further insight into how NCEs interactively contribute to the dynamics of terrestrial prey populations; particularly, how predation risk-sensitive foraging has the potential to stabilize predator-prey coexistence.